Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Third Quarter of 2025

Based on relevant basic data and accounting methods for gross domestic product (GDP), the results of the preliminary accounting of China’s GDP in the third quarter of 2025 are as follows.

Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Third Quarter of 2025

Y/Y Growth Rate of GDP

Q/Q Growth Rate of GDP

Refer to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) database (http://data.stats.gov.cn) for more accounting results.

Annex:

Notes on the Quarterly GDP Accounting in China

1. Overview of quarterly GDP accounting

1.1 Basic concept

GDP is the final result of the productive activity of all resident units in a country over a certain period. It is the core indicator of national economic accounting and an important indicator of the economic situation and level of development of a country.

There are three methods of GDP accounting, namely, the production-based method, the income-based method, and the expenditure-based method. The three methods reflect the results of productive activities of the national economy from different perspectives. The production-based method is a method of obtaining value added by removing the value of intermediate goods and services that are inputs to the production process from the value of goods and services created in the production process. The formula for calculating the value added of the production-based method in each sector of the national economy is as follows: value-added = total output - intermediate inputs. The value added of the production-based method in each sector of the national economy is summed up to obtain the gross domestic product (GDP) by the production-based method. The income-based method accounts for the results of production activities from the perspective of the income generated by the production process. According to this method of calculation, value added consists of four components: compensation of workers, net taxes on production, depreciation of fixed assets, and business surplus. The formula is as follows: value added = compensation of workers + net taxes on production + depreciation of fixed assets + business surplus. The sum of the value added of each sector of the national economy under the income-based method is equal to the GDP by the income-based method. The expenditure-based method is a method of calculating GDP from the perspective of the end use of the results of productive activities. The end use consists of final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, and net exports of goods and services.

The quarterly GDP released by the NBS is the result of accounting by the production-based method.

1.2 Scope of accounting

1.2.1 Scope of production

The scope of production for GDP accounting includes the following four components: first, the production of goods or services that producers supply or intend to supply to other units; second, the subsistence production of all goods used by producers for their final consumption or for fixed capital formation; third, the subsistence production of knowledge-carrying goods carried out by producers for their final consumption or for fixed capital formation, excluding similar activities carried out by the household sector; fourth, the subsistence production of housing services provided by owner-occupied dwellings, and of household and personal services provided by paid domestic service workers. The scope of production does not include unpaid household and personal services, natural activities not controlled by certain units (e.g., wild, uncultivated forests, natural growth of wild fruits or berries, natural growth of fish populations in the high seas), etc.

1.2.2 Scope of subjects of production activities

The scope of subjects of GDP production activities includes all resident units with centers of economic interest within the economic territory of China. The quarterly GDP data in this report are national data accounted by the NBS, and do not include GDP data for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Macao Special Administrative Region, and Taiwan Province.

1.3 Accounting units

GDP accounting mainly takes legal entities as the accounting unit. In accounting, legal entities are classified into different sectors based on the main activities they are engaged in, and the value added of each sector is calculated separately, which is then summarized to obtain GDP.

1.4 Accounting frequency

GDP accounting is conducted on a quarterly basis. China used cumulative accounting for quarterly GDP from the first quarter of 1992 to the second quarter of 2015, i.e., GDP data were calculated for the first quarter, the first-second quarter, the first-third quarter, and the first-fourth quarter of each year, respectively, and the preliminary accounting of GDP for the first-fourth quarter was the preliminary accounting of annual GDP. Since the third quarter of 2015, the quarterly accounting method has been used, that is, the GDP data of the first quarter, the second quarter, the third quarter, and the fourth quarter of each year are calculated respectively, and the cumulative data are obtained by adding the quarterly data.

Since the first quarter of 2011, the NBS has officially released the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of GDP in each quarter.

1.5 Legal basis and regulations

GDP accounting strictly complies with the provisions of the Statistics Law of the People’s Republic of China. Currently, the GDP of China is measured according to the requirements of the Chinese System of National Accounts (2016), which adopts the basic accounting principles, contents, and methods of the United Nations System of National Accounts (2008).

1.6 Confidentiality

According to the provisions of Article 11, Chapter I, of the Statistics Law of the People’s Republic of China, statistical organizations and statisticians shall maintain the confidentiality of state secrets, work secrets, commercial secrets, personal privacy, and personal information that they learn about in the course of their statistical work, and shall not disclose or illegally provide them to others.

National accountants shall maintain strict confidentiality of unpublished specialized statistical data and administrative record data used in conducting GDP accounting, as well as strict confidentiality of current GDP data until the GDP accounting data are released.

1.7 User requirements

Domestic users of quarterly GDP data are mainly government departments, research organizations, universities and colleges, industry associations, the media, and the general public. In addition, the NBS of China regularly provides the quarterly GDP data of China to international organizations such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the Asian Development Bank.

2. Quarterly GDP accounting methods

2.1 Classification system

In quarterly GDP accounting, the industry classification is based on the Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities and the Classification of Three Industries, and two classification approaches are used.

The first classification is based on the Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities (GB/T4754-2017) issued by the Standardization Administration of China in 2017. Two levels of classification are used in practice.

The first level of classification is based on the categories in the industrial classification for national economic activities and is divided into 11 industries, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, industry, construction, wholesale and retail trades, transport, storage and post, hotels and catering services, financial intermediation, real estate, information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and other industries. The industry consists of three sectors: mining, manufacturing, and production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water. Other industries include seven categories of sectors, including scientific research and technical services, water conservancy, environment and public facilities management, residential services, repair, and other services, education, health and social service, culture, sports and entertainment, public administration, social security, and social organizations.

The second level of classification builds on the first level of classification by refining some of the categories of the industrial classification for national economic activities into broad industry categories.

The second classification is based on the Regulations on the Classification of the Three Industries, revised by the NBS in 2018, and divides industries into the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries. The primary industry refers to agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (excluding agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery specialties and auxiliary activities); the secondary industry refers to mining (excluding mining specialties and auxiliary activities), manufacturing (excluding fabricated metal products, machinery and equipment repair), production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water, and construction; the tertiary industry, i.e., the service industry, refers to industries other than the primary and secondary industries (excluding international organizations).

2.2 Source of data

In calculating quarterly GDP, all applicable data derived from economic statistics surveys available at the time of the accounting are used in the GDP accounting. The source of data consists of two main parts:

First, national statistical survey information refers to a variety of statistical information obtained from statistical surveys conducted by the national statistical system, such as statistical surveys on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, industry, construction, wholesale and retail trades, hotels and catering services, real estate, and services by enterprises above the designated size, as well as statistics on population, labor and wage, prices, and so on.

Second, the administrative record and information of the administrative departments mainly include relevant data from the Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China, the People’s Bank of China, the State Taxation Administration of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission. These data include local and foreign currency credit income and expenditure of financial institutions of the People’s Bank of China, and tax information of the State Taxation Administration of China in different industries.

2.3 Accounting methods

2.3.1 Accounting method of value-added at current prices

Depending on the source of data, quarterly value-added at current prices is accounted for using the value-added rate method, extrapolation of relevant value quantity indicators, and extrapolation of current prices through constant prices.

2.3.1.1 Speed extrapolation of relevant value quantity indicators

The method of speed extrapolation of relevant value quantity indicators is to use the speed of growth of current prices of relevant value quantity indicators to extrapolate the speed of growth of value-added at current prices, and then multiply current-price value-added of the same period of the previous year by the extrapolated speed of growth of value-added at current prices to arrive at the value-added at current prices of the current period, which is calculated as follows:

Value-added at current prices = Value-added at current prices of the same period of the previous year × (1 + Speed of growth of value-added at current prices)

Among them, the growth rate of value-added at current prices is determined based on the current-price growth rate of relevant value quantity indicators in the current period, as well as the quantitative relationship between the current-price growth rates of value-added and the current-price growth rates of relevant value quantity indicators in previous years.

2.3.1.2 Extrapolation of current prices through constant prices

First, the value-added at constant prices in the current period is obtained by the extrapolation of volume indices, and then the value-added at current prices is calculated according to the relevant price index. The calculation formula is:

Value-added at current prices﹦Value-added at constant prices × Price index

2.3.2 Accounting method of value-added at constant prices

The value-added at constant prices is derived by converting the value-added calculated at current prices into the value calculated at a fixed period (base period), to eliminate the influence of price change factors and make the values in different periods comparable. The value-added at constant prices is calculated by the fixed base period method. At present, the base period is changed every five years, and the base period of value-added at constant prices from 2021 to 2025 is 2020.

The accounting of quarterly value-added at constant prices is mainly based on the price index deflation method and extrapolation of volume indices.

2.3.2.1 Price index deflation method

The value-added at constant prices is calculated by deflating the value-added at current prices with the relevant price indices. The calculation formula is:

Value-added at constant prices of a certain sector = Value-added at current prices of the sector ÷ Price index

2.3.2.2 Extrapolation of volume indices

The speed of growth of value-added at constant prices is extrapolated by using the speed of growth of relevant volume indices, and then the value-added at constant prices of the current period is calculated by using the value-added at constant prices of the same period in the previous year and the extrapolated speed of growth of value-added at constant prices. The calculation formula is:

Value-added at constant prices of a certain sector = Value-added at constant prices of the sector of the same period in the previous year × (1 + Speed of growth of value-added at constant prices of the sector)

Among them, the speed of growth of value-added at constant prices is determined according to the speed of growth of relevant volume indices in the current period and the quantitative relationship between the speed of growth of value-added at constant prices and the speed of growth of relevant volume indices in previous years.

2.4 Seasonal adjustment

The quarter-on-quarter growth rate of GDP is the result of comparing the quarterly value-added with the value-added data in the previous quarter. In the calculation, the effect of seasonal factors on the time series has to be removed, and the time series is seasonally adjusted using the National Bureau of Statistics of China version of the Seasonal Adjustment Software (NBS-SA). NBS-SA is developed based on the internationally used seasonal adjustment software, taking into account China-specific seasonal factors. The software adds a new module to deal with China-specific seasonal factors, effectively eliminating factors, including moveable holidays such as Chinese New Year, Dragon Boat Festival, and Mid-Autumn Festival, the shift in the number of working days per week from 6 days to 5 days, changes caused by holiday shifts and rescheduling adjustments, etc.

3. Revision of quarterly GDP data

3.1 Necessity of revision

Preliminary accounting of quarterly GDP is highly time-sensitive and is generally released about 15 days after the end of the quarter. At this point, not all of the basic data needed for GDP accounting is available, so the preliminary quarterly GDP accounting is derived using specialized statistical progress information and extrapolation of relevant indicators. Subsequently, as the available basic information continues to increase and improve, GDP data will be revised using more complete basic information, such as annual reports of specialized statistics, industry financial information, and fiscal accounts, so that they can more accurately reflect the actual situation of economic development.

3.2 Revision procedures

According to the latest reform of GDP accounting and data release policies of the NBS of China, quarterly GDP accounting in China is divided into two steps: preliminary accounting and final verification. Usually, after the annual GDP is finally verified, the quarterly data should be revised, which is called a routine revision. After the national economic census is carried out, if new basic data that have a great influence on GDP data are found, or if the historical annual GDP data are revised after the calculation method and classification standard have changed, the historical quarterly GDP data should be revised accordingly, which is called a comprehensive revision.

3.3 Revision methods

3.3.1 Revision of data for the current quarter

At present, the revision of the quarterly GDP data in China adopts the proportional connection method, that is, the method of adjusting quarterly data by using the difference between the annual benchmark value and the sum of the four quarters in the year. The basic practice of the proportional connection method is: first, the value-added at current prices and constant prices of various industries in the national economy are connected respectively; then, GDP and the value-added of the three industries are the sum of the value-added of the industries after connection. The connection method for GDP at constant prices and the value-added of three industries at constant prices is the same as that at current prices.

3.3.2 Revision of quarter-on-quarter data

As the object of seasonal adjustment is time series data, any changes in quarterly data in the time series will affect the results of seasonal adjustment. Adding the data of the latest quarter to the time series will also cause the quarter-on-quarter data of previous quarters to change more or less, which is the result of the automatic correction of the model. According to the principle of seasonal adjustment, in general, the data will be greatly affected in the period close to the latest data, and less affected in the period far away from the latest data. For the convenience of users, the revised quarter-on-quarter data of the previous quarter will also be released on the website of the NBS when the quarter-on-quarter data of the current period is released.

4. Quarterly GDP data quality evaluation

4.1 Evaluation of basic data

Relevant departments will examine the quality of specialized statistical data and administrative record data used in GDP accounting to ensure that the data reasonably reflects the actual situation of economic development. When the GDP accounting department receives these basic data, it will check the completeness and accuracy of the data again to ensure that these data meet the concept and requirements of GDP accounting.

4.2 Evaluation of accounting methods

In the GDP accounting, the GDP accounting department will revise the quarterly GDP accounting method according to the evolving economic reality of China and the constantly improving national economic accounting standards, to ensure the rationality of the accounting method.

4.3 Evaluation of accounting results

After the quarterly GDP accounting results are obtained, consistency checks are conducted on the data of GDP components, the GDP data, the data of related specialties and departments, as well as other macroeconomic indicators, so as to ensure that the GDP data are consistent and aligned with other major statistics. A system is being established to evaluate the basic statistical data of various specialties and departments with national economic accounting as the core framework.

4.4 Comparability of data

The Chinese System of National Accounts (2016) adopted the basic accounting principles, contents, and methods of the United Nations System of National Accounts (2008), so that the GDP data is internationally comparable.

Historical quarterly GDP data have been revised following the national economic census or changes in calculation methods and classification standards, so that the quarterly GDP time series since the first quarter of 1992 is comparable.

5. Quarterly GDP data release

5.1 Time of release

The results of the preliminary accounting of quarterly GDP are generally released around 15 days after the end of the quarter, and final quarterly GDP verifications are generally released in January of the next year. For the release of key statistical indicators, the NBS of China will state the release date in the Regular Press Release Calendar of NBS issued at the beginning of the year, and the GDP data will be released according to the prescribed schedule.

5.2 Methods of release

The results of the preliminary accounting of quarterly GDP are published in the quarterly press conference on the operation of the national economy, on the website of the NBS (www.stats.gov.cn), and in the China Monthly Economic Indicators. Final quarterly GDP verifications are published in the database of the NBS (http://data.stats.gov.cn/) and the China Monthly Economic Indicators. The time series of quarterly GDP data since the first quarter of 1992 can be found in the database of the NBS (http://data.stats.gov.cn/).