Purchasing Managers' Index for July 2025
Department of Service Statistics of NBS of China
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)
1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index
In July, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry came in at 49.3 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the climate level of manufacturing industry.
By enterprise size, the PMI for large enterprises was 50.3 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, above than the threshold; the PMI for medium-sized enterprises came in at 49.5 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, below the threshold; the PMI for small enterprises stood at 46.4 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, below the threshold.
By sub-index, among the five sub-indexes that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index and the supplier delivery time index were above the threshold, while the new order index, the raw material inventory index and the employment index were below the threshold.
The production index was 50.5 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, still higher than the threshold, indicating a continuous expansion in manufacturing production.
The new order index was 49.4 percent, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in the demand of the manufacturing market.
The raw material inventory index was 47.7 percent, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry continued to decline.
The employment index was 48.0 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a pick-up in the employment climate of manufacturing enterprises.
The supplier delivery time index was 50.3 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing industry continued to decrease.
China's Manufacturing PMI and Sub-indexes (Seasonally Adjusted)
|
Unit: % | ||||||
|
|
PMI |
| ||||
|
Production Index |
New Order Index |
Raw Material Inventory Index |
Employment Index |
Supplier Delivery Time Index | ||
|
2024-July |
49.4 |
50.1 |
49.3 |
47.8 |
48.3 |
49.3 |
|
August |
49.1 |
49.8 |
48.9 |
47.6 |
48.1 |
49.6 |
|
September |
49.8 |
51.2 |
49.9 |
47.7 |
48.2 |
49.5 |
|
October |
50.1 |
52.0 |
50.0 |
48.2 |
48.4 |
49.6 |
|
November |
50.3 |
52.4 |
50.8 |
48.2 |
48.2 |
50.2 |
|
December |
50.1 |
52.1 |
51.0 |
48.3 |
48.1 |
50.9 |
|
2025-January |
49.1 |
49.8 |
49.2 |
47.7 |
48.1 |
50.3 |
|
February |
50.2 |
52.5 |
51.1 |
47.0 |
48.6 |
51.0 |
|
March |
50.5 |
52.6 |
51.8 |
47.2 |
48.2 |
50.3 |
|
April |
49.0 |
49.8 |
49.2 |
47.0 |
47.9 |
50.2 |
|
May |
49.5 |
50.7 |
49.8 |
47.4 |
48.1 |
50.0 |
|
June |
49.7 |
51.0 |
50.2 |
48.0 |
47.9 |
50.2 |
|
July |
49.3 |
50.5 |
49.4 |
47.7 |
48.0 |
50.3 |
Related Indexes of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)
|
Unit: % | ||||||||
|
|
New Export Order Index |
Import Index |
Purchase Quantity Index |
Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index |
Producer Price Index |
Finished Goods Inventory Index |
Existing Order Index |
Production and Operation Expectation Index |
|
2024-July |
48.5 |
47.0 |
48.8 |
49.9 |
46.3 |
47.8 |
45.3 |
53.1 |
|
August |
48.7 |
46.8 |
47.8 |
43.2 |
42.0 |
48.5 |
44.7 |
52.0 |
|
September |
47.5 |
46.1 |
47.6 |
45.1 |
44.0 |
48.4 |
44.0 |
52.0 |
|
October |
47.3 |
47.0 |
49.3 |
53.4 |
49.9 |
46.9 |
45.4 |
54.0 |
|
November |
48.1 |
47.3 |
51.0 |
49.8 |
47.7 |
47.4 |
45.6 |
54.7 |
|
December |
48.3 |
49.3 |
51.5 |
48.2 |
46.7 |
47.9 |
45.9 |
53.3 |
|
2025-January |
46.4 |
48.1 |
49.2 |
49.5 |
47.4 |
46.5 |
45.6 |
55.3 |
|
February |
48.6 |
49.5 |
52.1 |
50.8 |
48.5 |
48.3 |
46.0 |
54.5 |
|
March |
49.0 |
47.5 |
51.8 |
49.8 |
47.9 |
48.0 |
45.6 |
53.8 |
|
April |
44.7 |
43.4 |
46.3 |
47.0 |
44.8 |
47.3 |
43.2 |
52.1 |
|
May |
47.5 |
47.1 |
47.6 |
46.9 |
44.7 |
46.5 |
44.8 |
52.5 |
|
June |
47.7 |
47.8 |
50.2 |
48.4 |
46.2 |
48.1 |
45.2 |
52.0 |
|
July |
47.1 |
47.8 |
49.5 |
51.5 |
48.3 |
47.4 |
44.7 |
52.6 |
2. Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index
In July, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still higher than the threshold.
By industry, the business activity index for the construction industry was 50.6 percent, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month; that for the service industry was 50.0 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of industries, the business activity indexes for railway transport, air transport, postal services, and culture, sports and entertainment were within the high expansion range of 60.0 percent and above; the business activity indexes for real estate and services to households were below the threshold.
The new order index was 45.7 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the demand of the non-manufacturing market. By industry, the new order index for the construction industry came in at 42.7 percent, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 46.3 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.
The input price index was 50.3 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall level of input prices used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities picked up. By industry, the input price index for the construction industry came in at 54.5 percent, an increase of 6.2 percentage points from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 49.6 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.
The sales price index was 47.9 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall non-manufacturing sales prices fell from the previous month. By industry, the sales price index for the construction industry came in at 49.2 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 47.7 percent, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month.
The employment index was 45.6 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in the employment climate of non-manufacturing enterprises. By industry, the employment index for the construction industry came in at 40.9 percent, an increase of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 46.4 percent, flat from the previous month.
The business activity expectation index was 55.8 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, still within the relatively high expansion range, indicating that most of the non-manufacturing enterprises remained optimistic about the recent market development. By industry, the business activity expectation index for the construction industry came in at 51.6 percent, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 56.6 percent, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.
Main Sub-indexes of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)
|
Unit: % | ||||||
|
|
Business Activity Index |
New Order Index |
Input Price Index |
Sales Price Index |
Employment Index |
Business Activity Expectation Index |
|
2024-July |
50.2 |
45.7 |
50.4 |
48.2 |
45.5 |
56.1 |
|
August |
50.3 |
46.3 |
48.6 |
47.2 |
45.2 |
55.3 |
|
September |
50.0 |
44.2 |
48.2 |
46.1 |
44.7 |
54.4 |
|
October |
50.2 |
47.2 |
50.6 |
48.5 |
45.8 |
56.1 |
|
November |
50.0 |
45.9 |
49.1 |
48.8 |
45.4 |
57.0 |
|
December |
52.2 |
48.7 |
50.5 |
48.8 |
45.8 |
57.5 |
|
2025-January |
50.2 |
46.4 |
50.4 |
48.6 |
46.7 |
56.7 |
|
February |
50.4 |
46.1 |
48.4 |
47.8 |
46.5 |
56.6 |
|
March |
50.8 |
46.6 |
48.6 |
46.7 |
45.8 |
57.2 |
|
April |
50.4 |
44.9 |
47.8 |
46.6 |
45.5 |
56.0 |
|
May |
50.3 |
46.1 |
48.2 |
47.3 |
45.5 |
55.9 |
|
June |
50.5 |
46.6 |
49.9 |
48.8 |
45.5 |
55.6 |
|
July |
50.1 |
45.7 |
50.3 |
47.9 |
45.6 |
55.8 |
Other Sub-indexes of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)
|
Unit: % | ||||
|
|
New Export Order Index |
Existing Order Index |
Inventory Index |
Supplier Delivery Time Index |
|
2024-July |
49.6 |
42.7 |
45.4 |
50.5 |
|
August |
47.6 |
42.2 |
45.1 |
50.6 |
|
September |
47.0 |
42.2 |
45.1 |
50.2 |
|
October |
50.0 |
43.7 |
45.7 |
51.2 |
|
November |
48.2 |
42.7 |
45.3 |
51.2 |
|
December |
50.0 |
44.1 |
46.4 |
51.5 |
|
2025-January |
44.6 |
43.3 |
45.0 |
51.3 |
|
February |
49.5 |
43.1 |
45.2 |
53.1 |
|
March |
49.8 |
43.7 |
45.7 |
51.1 |
|
April |
42.2 |
42.3 |
45.1 |
50.8 |
|
May |
48.0 |
43.4 |
46.1 |
51.1 |
|
June |
49.8 |
43.4 |
44.8 |
51.2 |
|
July |
48.8 |
42.3 |
45.3 |
51.2 |
3. Composite PMI Output Index
In July, the composite PMI output index was 50.2 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, still higher than the threshold, indicating that the overall production and operation of Chinese enterprises maintained expansion.
Annotations:
1. Explanatory Notes
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a composite index compiled through the monthly survey and statistical aggregation of purchasing managers from enterprises. It encompasses various aspects, including procurement, production, and distribution, across both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries. As one of the internationally recognized leading indicators for monitoring macroeconomic trends, it possesses strong predictive and early warning capabilities. Composite PMI Output Index, within the PMI indicator system, reflects the overall changes in output across all industries (manufacturing and non-manufacturing) during the current period. A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates an expansion in the overall economy compared to the previous month, while a reading below 50 percent reflects a contraction.
2. Statistical Coverage
The survey involves 3,200 samples from 31 divisions of the manufacturing industry, as classified in the Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities (GB/T 4754-2017), and 4,300 samples from 43 divisions of the non-manufacturing industry.
3. Survey Methods
The PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method is adopted in the purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size for each stratum is proportional to its share of value-added within the total value-added of the respective industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to the enterprises' principal business revenue.
The survey was organized and implemented by the directly affiliated survey teams of the NBS of China, utilizing the Online Reporting System of NBS of China to conduct survey questionnaires on the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.
4. Calculation Methods
(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indexes. The index system of the manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indexes such as production, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, main raw material purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employment, supplier delivery time, and production and operation expectation. The index system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indexes, including business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, input price, sales price, employment, supplier delivery time, and business activity expectation. Sub-indexes adopt the diffusion index calculation method, i.e. percentage of positive answers in a number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of non-manufacturing compound PMI indexes, the business activity index is commonly used internationally to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.
(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI. Manufacturing PMI is a weighted composite index calculated from five diffusion indices (sub-indexes). Five sub-indexes and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, the new order index weights 30 percent; the production index weights 25 percent; the employment index weights 20 percent; the supplier delivery time index weights 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weights 10 percent. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.
(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index. Composite PMI Output Index is calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion of manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP.
5. Seasonal Adjustment
The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, and the data from the survey fluctuates significantly due to the influence of seasonal factors. The released readings are all seasonally adjusted.