Purchasing Managers' Index for January 2025

Department of Service Statistics of NBS of China

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)

1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index

In January, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry came in at 49.1 percent, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a decline in the climate level of manufacturing industry.

In terms of enterprise size, the PMI for large, medium-sized and small enterprises was 49.9, 49.5 and 46.5 percent respectively, down by 0.6, 1.2 and 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, all below the threshold.

From the sub-indexes, among the five sub-indexes that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the supplier delivery time index were above the threshold, while the production index, the new order index, the raw material inventory index and the employment index were all below the threshold.

The production index was 49.8 percent, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production activities.

The new order index was 49.2 percent, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the demand of the manufacturing market.

The raw material inventory index was 47.7 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry continued to decline.

The employment index was 48.1 percent, unchanged from the previous month, indicating the stable status in the employment climate of manufacturing enterprises.

The supplier delivery time index was 50.3 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the previous month, still higher than the threshold, indicating that the delivery time for suppliers of raw materials in the manufacturing industry decreased.

China's Manufacturing PMI and Sub-indexes (Seasonally Adjusted)

Related Indexes of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

2. Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index

In January, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.2 percent, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, still above the threshold, indicating the non-manufacturing industry continued to experience expansion overall.

By industry, the business activity index for the construction industry came in at 49.3 percent, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points from the previous month; that for the service industry was 50.3 percent, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of industry, the business activity indexes for air transport, postal service, telecommunication, broadcast, television and satellite transmission services, and monetary and financial services were within the relatively high expansion range of 55.0 percent and above; the business activity indexes for both services to households, and culture, sports and entertainment were below the threshold.

The new order index was 46.4 percent, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the climate level of non-manufacturing market demand. By industry, the new order index for the construction industry came in at 44.7 percent, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 46.7 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month.

The input price index was 50.4 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the increase of overall input prices used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities declined. By industry, the sales price index for the construction industry came in at 47.7 percent, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 50.9 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the previous month.

The sales price index was 48.6 percent, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the overall non-manufacturing sales prices continued to decline. By industry, the sales price index for the construction industry came in at 47.8 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 48.8 percent, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from the previous month.

The employment index was 46.7 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage point from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the employment climate of non-manufacturing enterprises. By industry, the employment index for the construction industry came in at 48.7 percent, an increase of 6.0 percentage points from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 46.3 percent, flat from the previous month.

The business activity expectation index was 56.7 percent, a decrease of 0.8 percentage point from the previous month, above the threshold, indicating that most of the non-manufacturing enterprises remained optimistic about the market development. By industry, the business activity expectation index for the construction industry came in at 56.5 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 56.8 percent, a decrease of 0.8 percentage point from the previous month.

Main Sub-indexes of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Other Sub-indexes of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

3. Composite PMI Output Index

In January, the composite PMI output index was 50.1 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that China's overall economic output continued to expand.

Annotations:

1. Explanatory Notes

Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises' purchasing managers, which covers every link of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, circulation and so forth. The PMI is one of the leading indexes commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends and plays an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in the current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). If the PMI is above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding over the last month; if below 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in contraction over the last month.

2. Statistical Coverage

The survey involves 3,200 samples from 31 divisions of the manufacturing industry, as well as 4,300 samples from 43 divisions of the non-manufacturing industry in the National Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (GB/T 4754-2017).

3. Survey Methods

The PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method is adopted in the purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size for each stratum is proportional to its share of value-added within the total value-added of the respective industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to the enterprises' principal business revenue.

The survey is organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices directly subordinated to the NBS of China, utilizing the Online Reporting System of NBS of China to conduct monthly questionnaire surveys with purchasing managers of enterprises.

4. Calculation Methods

(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indexes. The index system of the manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indexes such as production, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchasing price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employment, supplier delivery time, and production and operation expectation. The index system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indexes including business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, input price, sales price, employment, supplier delivery time, and business activity expectation. Sub-indexes are calculated using the diffusion index method, which is the percentage of positive answers in a number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of non-manufacturing compound PMI indexes, the international society often uses the business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.

(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI. Manufacturing PMI is calculated according to five diffusion indexes (sub-indexes) and their weights. Five sub-indexes and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, the new order index weights 30 percent; the production index weights 25 percent; the employment index weights 20 percent; the supplier delivery time index weights 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weights 10 percent. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.

(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index. Composite PMI Output Index is calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion of manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP.

5. Seasonal adjustment

The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey; the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released readings are all seasonally adjusted.