Purchasing Managers' Index for October 2024
Department of Service Statistics of NBS of China
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)
1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index
In October, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry came in at 50.1 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a rebound in the climate level of manufacturing industry.
In terms of enterprise size, the PMI for large and medium-sized enterprises was 51.5 and 49.4 percent respectively, up by 0.9 and 0.2 percentage point from the previous month; the PMI for small enterprises stood at 47.5 percent, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month.
From the sub-indexes, among the five sub-indexes that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index was above the threshold, the new order index was at the threshold, while the raw material inventory index, the employment index and the supplier delivery time index were all below the threshold.
The production index was 52.0 percent, an increase of 0.8 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the production activities of manufacturing enterprises continued to accelerate.
The new order index was 50.0 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, at the threshold, indicating that the overall level of demand in the manufacturing market was basically unchanged from the previous month.
The raw material inventory index was 48.2 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from the previous month, still below the threshold, indicating that the decline in the inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry continued to narrow.
The employment index was 48.4 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the employment climate of manufacturing enterprises.
The supplier delivery time index was 49.6 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, still below the threshold, indicating that the delivery time for suppliers of raw materials in the manufacturing industry lengthened over the previous month.
China's Manufacturing PMI and Sub-indexes (Seasonally Adjusted)
|
Unit: % | ||||||
|
|
PMI |
| ||||
|
Production Index |
New Order Index |
Raw Material Inventory Index |
Employment Index |
Supplier Delivery Time Index | ||
|
2023-October |
49.5 |
50.9 |
49.5 |
48.2 |
48.0 |
50.2 |
|
November |
49.4 |
50.7 |
49.4 |
48.0 |
48.1 |
50.3 |
|
December |
49.0 |
50.2 |
48.7 |
47.7 |
47.9 |
50.3 |
|
2024-January |
49.2 |
51.3 |
49.0 |
47.6 |
47.6 |
50.8 |
|
February |
49.1 |
49.8 |
49.0 |
47.4 |
47.5 |
48.8 |
|
March |
50.8 |
52.2 |
53.0 |
48.1 |
48.1 |
50.6 |
|
April |
50.4 |
52.9 |
51.1 |
48.1 |
48.0 |
50.4 |
|
May |
49.5 |
50.8 |
49.6 |
47.8 |
48.1 |
50.1 |
|
June |
49.5 |
50.6 |
49.5 |
47.6 |
48.1 |
49.5 |
|
July |
49.4 |
50.1 |
49.3 |
47.8 |
48.3 |
49.3 |
|
August |
49.1 |
49.8 |
48.9 |
47.6 |
48.1 |
49.6 |
|
September |
49.8 |
51.2 |
49.9 |
47.7 |
48.2 |
49.5 |
|
October |
50.1 |
52.0 |
50.0 |
48.2 |
48.4 |
49.6 |
Related Indexes of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)
|
Unit: % | ||||||||
|
|
New Export Order Index |
Import Index |
Purchase Quantity Index |
Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index |
Producer Price Index |
Finished Goods Inventory Index |
Existing Order Index |
Production and Operation Expectation Index |
|
2023-October |
46.8 |
47.5 |
49.8 |
52.6 |
47.7 |
48.5 |
44.2 |
55.6 |
|
November |
46.3 |
47.3 |
49.6 |
50.7 |
48.2 |
48.2 |
44.4 |
55.8 |
|
December |
45.8 |
46.4 |
49.0 |
51.5 |
47.7 |
47.8 |
44.5 |
55.9 |
|
2024-January |
47.2 |
46.7 |
49.2 |
50.4 |
47.0 |
49.4 |
44.3 |
54.0 |
|
February |
46.3 |
46.4 |
48.0 |
50.1 |
48.1 |
47.9 |
43.5 |
54.2 |
|
March |
51.3 |
50.4 |
52.7 |
50.5 |
47.4 |
48.9 |
47.6 |
55.6 |
|
April |
50.6 |
48.1 |
50.5 |
54.0 |
49.1 |
47.3 |
45.6 |
55.2 |
|
May |
48.3 |
46.8 |
49.3 |
56.9 |
50.4 |
46.5 |
45.3 |
54.3 |
|
June |
48.3 |
46.9 |
48.1 |
51.7 |
47.9 |
48.3 |
45.0 |
54.4 |
|
July |
48.5 |
47.0 |
48.8 |
49.9 |
46.3 |
47.8 |
45.3 |
53.1 |
|
August |
48.7 |
46.8 |
47.8 |
43.2 |
42.0 |
48.5 |
44.7 |
52.0 |
|
September |
47.5 |
46.1 |
47.6 |
45.1 |
44.0 |
48.4 |
44.0 |
52.0 |
|
October |
47.3 |
47.0 |
49.3 |
53.4 |
49.9 |
46.9 |
45.4 |
54.0 |
2. Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index
In October, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.2 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a slight rebound in the non-manufacturing climate.
By industry, the business activity index for the construction industry was 50.4 percent, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 50.1 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the previous month. From the perspective of industries, the business activity indexes for sectors including railway transport, water transport, air transport, postal services, capital market services, and ecological conservation and public facilities management were within the relatively high expansion range of 55.0 percent and above; while that for sectors including wholesale, accommodation, internet software and information technology services, real estate, and services to households were below the threshold.
The new order index was 47.2 percent, an increase of 3.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the climate level of non-manufacturing market demand rebounded. By industry, the new order index for the construction industry came in at 43.5 percent, an increase of 4.0 percentage points from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 47.8 percent, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month.
The input price index was 50.6 percent, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall level of input prices used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities picked up. By industry, the input price index for the construction industry came in at 55.2 percent, an increase of 5.2 percentage points from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 49.8 percent, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month.
The sales price index was 48.5 percent, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the previous month, still below the threshold, indicating a narrower decline in the overall non-manufacturing sales prices. By industry, the sales price index for the construction industry came in at 52.1 percent, an increase of 4.1 percentage points from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 47.8 percent, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month.
The employment index was 45.8 percent, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the employment climate of non-manufacturing enterprises. By industry, the employment index for the construction industry came in at 42.7 percent, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 46.4 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage point from the previous month.
The business activity expectation index was 56.1 percent, catapulting it into the relatively high expansion range with an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises have greater confidence in recent market development prospects. By industry, the business activity expectation index for the construction industry came in at 55.2 percent, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 56.2 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month.
Main Sub-indexes of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)
|
Unit: % | ||||||
|
|
Business Activity Index |
New Order Index |
Input Price Index |
Sales Price Index |
Employment Index |
Business Activity Expectation Index |
|
2023-October |
50.6 |
46.7 |
49.7 |
48.6 |
46.5 |
58.1 |
|
November |
50.2 |
47.2 |
49.8 |
48.3 |
46.9 |
59.8 |
|
December |
50.4 |
47.5 |
49.6 |
49.3 |
47.1 |
60.3 |
|
2024-January |
50.7 |
47.6 |
49.6 |
48.9 |
47.0 |
59.7 |
|
February |
51.4 |
46.8 |
50.6 |
48.5 |
47.0 |
57.7 |
|
March |
53.0 |
47.4 |
49.5 |
48.6 |
46.6 |
58.4 |
|
April |
51.2 |
46.3 |
51.1 |
49.4 |
47.2 |
57.2 |
|
May |
51.1 |
46.9 |
49.7 |
47.8 |
46.2 |
56.9 |
|
June |
50.5 |
46.7 |
49.6 |
47.6 |
45.8 |
57.2 |
|
July |
50.2 |
45.7 |
50.4 |
48.2 |
45.5 |
56.1 |
|
August |
50.3 |
46.3 |
48.6 |
47.2 |
45.2 |
55.3 |
|
September |
50.0 |
44.2 |
48.2 |
46.1 |
44.7 |
54.4 |
|
October |
50.2 |
47.2 |
50.6 |
48.5 |
45.8 |
56.1 |
Other Sub-indexes of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)
|
Unit: % | ||||
|
|
New Export Order Index |
Existing Order Index |
Inventory Index |
Supplier Delivery Time Index |
|
2023-October |
49.1 |
43.1 |
46.2 |
52.0 |
|
November |
46.8 |
43.0 |
46.7 |
51.8 |
|
December |
50.9 |
43.9 |
46.0 |
51.0 |
|
2024-January |
45.2 |
43.7 |
47.2 |
52.0 |
|
February |
47.3 |
42.7 |
46.4 |
50.3 |
|
March |
47.3 |
44.8 |
46.2 |
51.1 |
|
April |
48.4 |
44.5 |
46.0 |
51.0 |
|
May |
47.6 |
42.9 |
45.2 |
51.0 |
|
June |
48.8 |
43.1 |
45.5 |
50.5 |
|
July |
49.6 |
42.7 |
45.4 |
50.5 |
|
August |
47.6 |
42.2 |
45.1 |
50.6 |
|
September |
47.0 |
42.2 |
45.1 |
50.2 |
|
October |
50.0 |
43.7 |
45.7 |
51.2 |
3. Composite PMI Output Index
In October, the composite PMI output index was 50.8 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the expansion in overall production and operation of Chinese enterprises accelerated.
Annotations:
1. Explanatory Notes
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises' purchasing managers, which covers every link of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, circulation and so forth. The PMI is one of the leading indexes commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends and plays an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in the current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). If the PMI is above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding over the last month; if below 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in contraction over the last month.
2. Statistical Coverage
The survey involves 3,200 samples from 31 divisions of the manufacturing industry in the National Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (GB/T4754-2017), as well as 4,300 samples from 43 divisions of the non-manufacturing industry.
3. Survey Methods
PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in the purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenue of the enterprises.
The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices directly subordinated to the NBS of China, monthly through the Online Reporting System of NBS of China by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.
4. Calculation Methods
(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indexes. The index system of the manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indexes such as production, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchasing price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employment, supplier delivery time, and production and operation expectation. The index system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indexes including business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, input price, sales price, employment, supplier delivery time, and business activity expectation. Sub-indexes adopt the diffusion index calculation method, i.e. percentage of positive answers in a number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of non-manufacturing compound PMI indexes, the international society often used the business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.
(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI. Manufacturing PMI was calculated according to five diffusion indexes (sub-indexes) and their weights. Five sub-indexes and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, the new order index weights 30 percent; the production index weights 25 percent; the employment index weights 20 percent; the supplier delivery time index weights 15 percent; the raw materials inventory index weights 10 percent. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.
(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index. Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion of manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP.
5. Seasonal adjustment
The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey; the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released readings are all seasonally adjusted.