Purchasing Managers Index for October 2021
Department of Service Statistics of NBS
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing(CFLP)
1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
In October, the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 49.2 percent, which was 0.4 percentage point lower than that of the previous month, continued to be lower than the threshold, and the outlook of the manufacturing industry was weakened.
In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.3 percent, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage point over the previous month, but still higher than the threshold; the PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 48.6 percent, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the threshold; the PMI of small enterprises was 47.5 percent, unchanged from the previous month and below the threshold.
In terms of sub-indexes, among the five sub-indexes constituting manufacturing PMI, production index, new order index, raw material inventory index, employee index and supplier delivery time index were all below the threshold.
The production index was 48.4 percent, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production activities.
The new order index was 48.8 percent, down 0.5 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the market demand of the manufacturing industry has dropped.
The raw material inventory index was 47.0 percent, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the inventory of main raw materials in the manufacturing industry continued to decrease.
The employment index was 48.8 percent, down 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the employment climate of manufacturing enterprises has decreased.
The supplier delivery time index was 46.7 percent, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing industry continued to extend.
| China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||
| Unit: % | ||||||
| | PMI | | ||||
| Production Index | New Orders Index | Raw Materials Inventory Index | Employment Index | Supplier Delivery Time Index | ||
| | | | | | | |
| 2020-October | 51.4 | 53.9 | 52.8 | 48.0 | 49.3 | 50.6 |
| November | 52.1 | 54.7 | 53.9 | 48.6 | 49.5 | 50.1 |
| December | 51.9 | 54.2 | 53.6 | 48.6 | 49.6 | 49.9 |
| 2021-January | 51.3 | 53.5 | 52.3 | 49.0 | 48.4 | 48.8 |
| February | 50.6 | 51.9 | 51.5 | 47.7 | 48.1 | 47.9 |
| March | 51.9 | 53.9 | 53.6 | 48.4 | 50.1 | 50.0 |
| April | 51.1 | 52.2 | 52.0 | 48.3 | 49.6 | 48.7 |
| May | 51.0 | 52.7 | 51.3 | 47.7 | 48.9 | 47.6 |
| June | 50.9 | 51.9 | 51.5 | 48.0 | 49.2 | 47.9 |
| July | 50.4 | 51.0 | 50.9 | 47.7 | 49.6 | 48.9 |
| August | 50.1 | 50.9 | 49.6 | 47.7 | 49.6 | 48.0 |
| September | 49.6 | 49.5 | 49.3 | 48.2 | 49.0 | 48.1 |
| October | 49.2 | 48.4 | 48.8 | 47.0 | 48.8 | 46.7 |
| | | | | | | |
| Related Indicators of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||||
| Unit: % | ||||||||
| | New Export Orders Index | Import Index | Purchase Quantity Index | Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index | Producer Price Index | Finished Goods Inventory Index | Open Orders Index | Production And Business Activities Expectation Index |
| | | | | | | | | |
| 2020-October | 51.0 | 50.8 | 53.1 | 58.8 | 53.2 | 44.9 | 47.2 | 59.3 |
| November | 51.5 | 50.9 | 53.7 | 62.6 | 56.5 | 45.7 | 46.7 | 60.1 |
| December | 51.3 | 50.4 | 53.2 | 68.0 | 58.9 | 46.2 | 47.1 | 59.8 |
| 2021-January | 50.2 | 49.8 | 52.0 | 67.1 | 57.2 | 49.0 | 47.3 | 57.9 |
| February | 48.8 | 49.6 | 51.6 | 66.7 | 58.5 | 48.0 | 46.1 | 59.2 |
| March | 51.2 | 51.1 | 53.1 | 69.4 | 59.8 | 46.7 | 46.6 | 58.5 |
| April | 50.4 | 50.6 | 51.7 | 66.9 | 57.3 | 46.8 | 46.4 | 58.3 |
| May | 48.3 | 50.9 | 51.9 | 72.8 | 60.6 | 46.5 | 45.9 | 58.2 |
| June | 48.1 | 49.7 | 51.7 | 61.2 | 51.4 | 47.1 | 46.6 | 57.9 |
| July | 47.7 | 49.4 | 50.8 | 62.9 | 53.8 | 47.6 | 46.1 | 57.8 |
| August | 46.7 | 48.3 | 50.3 | 61.3 | 53.4 | 47.7 | 45.9 | 57.5 |
| September | 46.2 | 46.8 | 49.7 | 63.5 | 56.4 | 47.2 | 45.6 | 56.4 |
| October | 46.6 | 47.5 | 48.9 | 72.1 | 61.1 | 46.3 | 45.0 | 53.6 |
| | | | | | | | | |
2. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers index
In October, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 52.4 percent, down 0.8 percentage point from the previous month, but still higher than the threshold, and the non-manufacturing industry continued to expand.
By industry, the business activity index of the construction industry was 56.9 percent, down 0.6 percentage point from the previous month. The business activity index of the service industry was 51.6 percent, down 0.8 percentage point from the previous month. From the perspective of industry conditions, the business activity indexes of accommodation, catering, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services, monetary and financial services, ecological protection and environmental governance, culture, sports and entertainment industries were in the high boom range of more than 55.0 percent; the business activity index of capital market services, insurance, real estate, residential services was below the threshold.
The new order index was 49.0 percent, which was flat with the previous month, but still below the threshold, indicating that the demand in the non-manufacturing market continued to slow down. By industry, the new order index of the construction industry was 52.3 percent, an increase of 3.0 percentage points over the previous month; the index of new orders in the service industry was 48.4 percent, down 0.6 percentage point from the previous month.
The input price index was 57.8 percent, an increase of 4.3 percentage points over the previous month, higher than the threshold, indicating that the overall price level of inputs used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities increased significantly. By industry, the price index of construction inputs was 70.7 percent, an increase of 7.9 percentage points over the previous month; the price index of service inputs was 55.5 percent, up 3.7 percentage points from the previous month.
The sales price index was 52.7 percent, an increase of 2.2 percentage points over the previous month, higher than the threshold, indicating that the overall level of sales prices in non-manufacturing industries continued to rise. By industry, the sales price index of the construction industry was 57.1 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the previous month; the sales price index of the service industry was 52.0 percent, an increase of 2.4 percentage points over the previous month.
The employment index was 47.5 percent, down 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the employment climate of non-manufacturing enterprises has weakened. By industry, the employment index of the construction industry was 52.4 percent, down 0.2 percentage point from the previous month; the index of service industry employees was 46.6 percent, down 0.3 percentage point from the previous month.
The expected index of business activities was 58.8 percent, down 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, but still in a high boom range, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises were more optimistic about the recent market development. By industry, the expected index of business activities in the construction industry was 60.3 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point over the previous month; the expected index of business activities in the service industry was 58.5 percent, down 0.4 percentage point from the previous month.
| Main Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||
| Unit: % | ||||||
| | Business Activity Index | New Orders Index | Input Price Index | Sales Price Index | Employment Index | Business Activities Expectation Index |
| | | | | | | |
| 2020-October | 56.2 | 53.0 | 50.9 | 49.4 | 49.4 | 62.9 |
| November | 56.4 | 52.8 | 52.7 | 51.0 | 48.9 | 61.2 |
| December | 55.7 | 51.9 | 54.3 | 52.3 | 48.7 | 60.6 |
| 2021-January | 52.4 | 48.7 | 54.5 | 51.4 | 47.8 | 55.1 |
| February | 51.4 | 48.9 | 54.7 | 50.1 | 48.4 | 64.0 |
| March | 56.3 | 55.9 | 56.2 | 52.2 | 49.7 | 63.7 |
| April | 54.9 | 51.5 | 54.9 | 51.2 | 48.7 | 63.0 |
| May | 55.2 | 52.2 | 57.7 | 52.8 | 48.9 | 62.9 |
| June | 53.5 | 49.6 | 53.4 | 51.4 | 48.0 | 60.8 |
| July | 53.3 | 49.7 | 53.5 | 51.3 | 48.2 | 60.7 |
| August | 47.5 | 42.2 | 51.3 | 49.3 | 47.0 | 57.4 |
| September | 53.2 | 49.0 | 53.5 | 50.5 | 47.8 | 59.1 |
| October | 52.4 | 49.0 | 57.8 | 52.7 | 47.5 | 58.8 |
| | | | | | | |
| Other Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||
| Unit: % | ||||
| | Foreign New Orders Index | Unfilled Orders Index | Stock Index | Supplier Delivery Time Index |
| | | | | |
| 2020-October | 47.0 | 44.9 | 48.7 | 52.3 |
| November | 49.0 | 45.2 | 48.8 | 51.8 |
| December | 47.5 | 44.7 | 47.0 | 51.2 |
| 2021-January | 48.0 | 44.0 | 47.4 | 49.8 |
| February | 45.7 | 44.0 | 45.9 | 49.8 |
| March | 50.3 | 45.9 | 48.2 | 51.8 |
| April | 48.1 | 45.8 | 47.2 | 50.9 |
| May | 47.6 | 44.7 | 47.2 | 50.8 |
| June | 45.4 | 43.8 | 47.0 | 51.0 |
| July | 47.7 | 44.8 | 47.3 | 51.3 |
| August | 43.9 | 42.9 | 45.9 | 49.2 |
| September | 46.4 | 44.2 | 45.9 | 50.4 |
| October | 47.5 | 44.3 | 45.5 | 49.7 |
| | | | | |
3. Composite PMI Output Index
In October, the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.8 percent, down 0.9 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion pace of production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises has slowed down.
Annotations:
1. Explanatory Notes
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in recession.
2. Statistical Coverage
The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing industry in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2017), and 3000 samples, as well as 43 divisions of non-manufacturing industry, and 4200 samples.
3. Survey Methods
PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.
The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.
4. Calculation Methods
(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indices.
The indicator system of manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indices such as production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager’s survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers’ delivery time, and business activities expectation. The indicator system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indices such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, supplier’s delivery time, and business activities expectation. Sub-indices adopt diffusion index calculation method, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.
(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI.
Manufacturing PMI was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employee’s index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.
(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index.
Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP.
5. Seasonal adjustment
The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.