Purchasing Managers Index for May 2021
Department of Service Statistics of NBS
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing(CFLP)
1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
In May, the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 51.0 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than that of last month, and still higher than the threshold. The manufacturing industry kept expanding steadily.
From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises were 51.8 and 51.1 percent, respectively, higher than 0.1 and 0.8 percentage point of last month, both above the threshold; while the PMI of small enterprises was 48.8 percent, lower than 2.0 percentage points of last month.
From the perspective of sub index, in the five sub-indexes of manufacturing PMI, production index and new order index were higher than the threshold, while raw material inventory index, employee index and supplier delivery time index were lower than the threshold.
The production index was 52.7 percent, 0.5 percentage point higher than that of last month and above the threshold, indicating that the production expansion of manufacturing industry has strengthened.
The new orders index was 51.3 percent, down 0.7 percentage point from last month and above the threshold, indicating that the expansion of manufacturing market demand has slowed down.
The inventory index of raw materials was 47.7 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point over the previous month, lower than the threshold, indicating that the inventory of main raw materials in the manufacturing industry decreased compared with the previous month.
The employee index was 48.9 percent, down 0.7 percentage point from the previous month, lower than the threshold, indicating that the employment outlook of manufacturing enterprises has declined.
The delivery time index of suppliers was 47.6 percent, 1.1 percentage points lower than that of last month, which was lower than the threshold, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in manufacturing industry was prolonged.
| China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||
| Unit: % | ||||||
| | PMI | | ||||
| Production Index | New Orders Index | Main Raw Materials Inventory Index | Employed Person Index | Supplier Delivery Time Index | ||
| | | | | | | |
| 2020-May | 50.6 | 53.2 | 50.9 | 47.3 | 49.4 | 50.5 |
| June | 50.9 | 53.9 | 51.4 | 47.6 | 49.1 | 50.5 |
| July | 51.1 | 54.0 | 51.7 | 47.9 | 49.3 | 50.4 |
| August | 51.0 | 53.5 | 52.0 | 47.3 | 49.4 | 50.4 |
| September | 51.5 | 54.0 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.6 | 50.7 |
| October | 51.4 | 53.9 | 52.8 | 48.0 | 49.3 | 50.6 |
| November | 52.1 | 54.7 | 53.9 | 48.6 | 49.5 | 50.1 |
| December | 51.9 | 54.2 | 53.6 | 48.6 | 49.6 | 49.9 |
| 2021-January | 51.3 | 53.5 | 52.3 | 49.0 | 48.4 | 48.8 |
| February | 50.6 | 51.9 | 51.5 | 47.7 | 48.1 | 47.9 |
| March | 51.9 | 53.9 | 53.6 | 48.4 | 50.1 | 50.0 |
| April | 51.1 | 52.2 | 52.0 | 48.3 | 49.6 | 48.7 |
| May | 51.0 | 52.7 | 51.3 | 47.7 | 48.9 | 47.6 |
| | | | | | | |
| Related Indicators of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||||
| Unit: % | ||||||||
| | New Export Orders Index | Import Index | Purchase Quantity Index | Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index | Producer Price Index | Finished Goods Inventory Index | Open Orders Index | Production And Business Activities Expectation Index |
| | | | | | | | | |
| 2020-May | 35.3 | 45.3 | 50.8 | 51.6 | 48.7 | 47.3 | 44.1 | 57.9 |
| June | 42.6 | 47.0 | 51.8 | 56.8 | 52.4 | 46.8 | 44.8 | 57.5 |
| July | 48.4 | 49.1 | 52.4 | 58.1 | 52.2 | 47.6 | 45.6 | 57.8 |
| August | 49.1 | 49.0 | 51.7 | 58.3 | 53.2 | 47.1 | 46.0 | 58.6 |
| September | 50.8 | 50.4 | 53.6 | 58.5 | 52.5 | 48.4 | 46.1 | 58.7 |
| October | 51.0 | 50.8 | 53.1 | 58.8 | 53.2 | 44.9 | 47.2 | 59.3 |
| November | 51.5 | 50.9 | 53.7 | 62.6 | 56.5 | 45.7 | 46.7 | 60.1 |
| December | 51.3 | 50.4 | 53.2 | 68.0 | 58.9 | 46.2 | 47.1 | 59.8 |
| 2021-January | 50.2 | 49.8 | 52.0 | 67.1 | 57.2 | 49.0 | 47.3 | 57.9 |
| February | 48.8 | 49.6 | 51.6 | 66.7 | 58.5 | 48.0 | 46.1 | 59.2 |
| March | 51.2 | 51.1 | 53.1 | 69.4 | 59.8 | 46.7 | 46.6 | 58.5 |
| April | 50.4 | 50.6 | 51.7 | 66.9 | 57.3 | 46.8 | 46.4 | 58.3 |
| May | 48.3 | 50.9 | 51.9 | 72.8 | 60.6 | 46.5 | 45.9 | 58.2 |
| | | | | | | | | |
2. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers index
In May, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 55.2 percent, up 0.3 percentage point from last month, and the pace of non-manufacturing expansion got faster.
By industry, the construction industry business activity index was 60.1 percent, 2.7 percentage points higher than last month. The business activity index of service industry was 54.3 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than that of last month. From the industry situation, the business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, telecommunications, radio and television satellite transmission services, culture, sports and entertainment industries was in the high prosperity range of more than 60.0 percent; the business activity index of water transportation, capital market services and real estate was below the threshold.
The index of new orders was 52.2 percent, up 0.7 percentage point from last month, still higher than the threshold, indicating that the demands in non-manufacturing market kept increasing. By industry, the new order index of construction industry was 53.8 percent, up 1.4 percentage points from last month; the index of new orders in the service industry was 52.0 percent, up 0.7 percentage point from the previous month.
The price index of inputs was 57.7 percent, up 2.8 percentage points from the previous month and above the threshold, indicating that the price increase of inputs used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities enlarged. By industry, the price index of construction inputs was 73.6 percent, up 8.9 percentage points from last month; the price index of service inputs was 54.9 percent, up 1.8 percentage points from last month.
The sales price index was 52.8 percent, 1.6 percentage points higher than that of last month, still higher than the threshold, indicating that the overall increase of sales price of non-manufacturing industry enlarged. By industry, the sales price index of the construction industry was 57.0 percent, up 0.3 percentage point from last month; the sales price index of the service industry was 52.0 percent, up 1.8 percentage points from last month.
The employment index was 48.9 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point over the previous month, indicating that the employment outlook of non-manufacturing industry was slightly improved. In terms of industries, the construction industry employee index was 53.0 percent, up 2.0 percentage points from last month; the employment index of the service industry was 48.2 percent, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.
The expected index of business activities was 62.9 percent, slightly down 0.1 percentage point from last month, continually stayed in the high economic zone, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises remained optimistic about the development of the industry. By industry, the expected index of business activities in the construction industry was 65.7 percent, up 0.9 percentage point from last month; the expected index of business activities in the service industry was 62.4 percent, down 0.3 percentage point from last month.
| Main Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||
| Unit: % | ||||||
| | Non-manufacturing PMI | New Orders Index | Input Price Index | Sales Price Index | Employment Index | Business Activities Expectation Index |
| | | | | | | |
| 2020-May | 53.6 | 52.6 | 52.0 | 48.6 | 48.5 | 63.9 |
| June | 54.4 | 52.7 | 52.9 | 49.5 | 48.7 | 60.3 |
| July | 54.2 | 51.5 | 53.0 | 50.1 | 48.1 | 62.2 |
| August | 55.2 | 52.3 | 51.9 | 50.1 | 48.3 | 62.1 |
| September | 55.9 | 54.0 | 50.6 | 48.9 | 49.1 | 63.0 |
| October | 56.2 | 53.0 | 50.9 | 49.4 | 49.4 | 62.9 |
| November | 56.4 | 52.8 | 52.7 | 51.0 | 48.9 | 61.2 |
| December | 55.7 | 51.9 | 54.3 | 52.3 | 48.7 | 60.6 |
| 2021-January | 52.4 | 48.7 | 54.5 | 51.4 | 47.8 | 55.1 |
| February | 51.4 | 48.9 | 54.7 | 50.1 | 48.4 | 64.0 |
| March | 56.3 | 55.9 | 56.2 | 52.2 | 49.7 | 63.7 |
| April | 54.9 | 51.5 | 54.9 | 51.2 | 48.7 | 63.0 |
| May | 55.2 | 52.2 | 57.7 | 52.8 | 48.9 | 62.9 |
| | | | | | | |
| Other Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||
| Unit: % | ||||
| | Foreign New Orders Index | Unfilled Orders Index | Stock Index | Supplier Delivery Time Index |
| | | | | |
| 2020-May | 41.3 | 44.3 | 47.8 | 52.9 |
| June | 43.3 | 44.8 | 48.0 | 52.1 |
| July | 44.5 | 44.9 | 48.1 | 51.9 |
| August | 45.1 | 44.6 | 48.5 | 52.4 |
| September | 49.1 | 46.3 | 48.5 | 52.2 |
| October | 47.0 | 44.9 | 48.7 | 52.3 |
| November | 49.0 | 45.2 | 48.8 | 51.8 |
| December | 47.5 | 44.7 | 47.0 | 51.2 |
| 2021-January | 48.0 | 44.0 | 47.4 | 49.8 |
| February | 45.7 | 44.0 | 45.9 | 49.8 |
| March | 50.3 | 45.9 | 48.2 | 51.8 |
| April | 48.1 | 45.8 | 47.2 | 50.9 |
| May | 47.6 | 44.7 | 47.2 | 50.8 |
| | | | | |
3. Composite PMI Output Index
In May, the comprehensive PMI output index was 54.2 percent, 0.4 percentage points higher than that of last month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continued to expand steadily.
Annotations:
1. Explanatory Notes
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in recession.
2. Statistical Coverage
The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing industry in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2017), and 3000 samples, as well as 43 divisions of non-manufacturing industry, and 4200 samples.
3. Survey Methods
PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.
The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.
4. Calculation Methods
(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indices.
The indicator system of manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indices such as production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager’s survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers’ delivery time, and business activities expectation. The indicator system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indices such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, supplier’s delivery time, and business activities expectation. Sub-indices adopt diffusion index calculation method, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.
(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI.
Manufacturing PMI was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employee’s index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.
(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index.
Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP.
5. Seasonal adjustment
The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.