Purchasing Managers Index for January 2021
Department of Service Statistics of NBS
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing(CFLP)
1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
In January 2021, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.3 percent, down by 0.6 percentage point from last month, which was above the threshold for eleven consecutive months, indicating that the manufacturing industry continued to expand, but the pace slowed down.
In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises was 52.1 and 51.4percent, which was 0.6 and 1.3 percentage points lower than that of last month, both still higher than the threshold; the PMI of small enterprises was 49.4 percent, which was 0.6 percentage point higher than that of last month, but still lower than the threshold.
According to the classification index, the five sub-indices composing PMI, the production index and new orders index were both above the threshold, while raw materials inventory index, employment index and supplier distribution time index all stayed below the threshold.
Production index was 53.5 percent, down by 0.7 percentage point from last month, but still stayed above the threshold, indicating that the production expansion of manufacturing industry was weaker than that of last month.
New orders index was 52.3 percent, down by 1.3 percentage points from last month, but still stayed above the threshold, indicating that the demand of the manufacturing industry slowed down.
The inventory index of raw materials was 49.0 percent, up 0.4 percentage point over last month and below the threshold, indicating that the decline of inventory of main raw materials in manufacturing industry narrowed.
The employment index was 48.4 percent, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the employment outlook of manufacturing enterprises declined.
The supplier delivery time index was 48.8 percent, which was 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in manufacturing industry slowed down compared with last month.
| China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||
| Unit: % | ||||||
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| PMI |
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| Production Index | New Orders Index | Main Raw Materials Inventory Index | Employed Person Index | Supplier Delivery Time Index | ||
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| 2020-January | 50.0 | 51.3 | 51.4 | 47.1 | 47.5 | 49.9 |
| February | 35.7 | 27.8 | 29.3 | 33.9 | 31.8 | 32.1 |
| March | 52.0 | 54.1 | 52.0 | 49.0 | 50.9 | 48.2 |
| April | 50.8 | 53.7 | 50.2 | 48.2 | 50.2 | 50.1 |
| May | 50.6 | 53.2 | 50.9 | 47.3 | 49.4 | 50.5 |
| June | 50.9 | 53.9 | 51.4 | 47.6 | 49.1 | 50.5 |
| July | 51.1 | 54.0 | 51.7 | 47.9 | 49.3 | 50.4 |
| August | 51.0 | 53.5 | 52.0 | 47.3 | 49.4 | 50.4 |
| September | 51.5 | 54.0 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.6 | 50.7 |
| October | 51.4 | 53.9 | 52.8 | 48.0 | 49.3 | 50.6 |
| November | 52.1 | 54.7 | 53.9 | 48.6 | 49.5 | 50.1 |
| December | 51.9 | 54.2 | 53.6 | 48.6 | 49.6 | 49.9 |
| 2021-January | 51.3 | 53.5 | 52.3 | 49.0 | 48.4 | 48.8 |
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| Related Indicators of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||||
| Unit: % | ||||||||
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| New Export Orders Index | Import Index | Purchase Quantity Index | Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index | Producer Price Index | Finished Goods Inventory Index | Open Orders Index | Production And Business Activities Expectation Index |
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| 2020-January | 48.7 | 49.0 | 51.6 | 53.8 | 49.0 | 46.0 | 46.3 | 57.9 |
| February | 28.7 | 31.9 | 29.3 | 51.4 | 44.3 | 46.1 | 35.6 | 41.8 |
| March | 46.4 | 48.4 | 52.7 | 45.5 | 43.8 | 49.1 | 46.3 | 54.4 |
| April | 33.5 | 43.9 | 52.0 | 42.5 | 42.2 | 49.3 | 43.6 | 54.0 |
| May | 35.3 | 45.3 | 50.8 | 51.6 | 48.7 | 47.3 | 44.1 | 57.9 |
| June | 42.6 | 47.0 | 51.8 | 56.8 | 52.4 | 46.8 | 44.8 | 57.5 |
| July | 48.4 | 49.1 | 52.4 | 58.1 | 52.2 | 47.6 | 45.6 | 57.8 |
| August | 49.1 | 49.0 | 51.7 | 58.3 | 53.2 | 47.1 | 46.0 | 58.6 |
| September | 50.8 | 50.4 | 53.6 | 58.5 | 52.5 | 48.4 | 46.1 | 58.7 |
| October | 51.0 | 50.8 | 53.1 | 58.8 | 53.2 | 44.9 | 47.2 | 59.3 |
| November | 51.5 | 50.9 | 53.7 | 62.6 | 56.5 | 45.7 | 46.7 | 60.1 |
| December | 51.3 | 50.4 | 53.2 | 68.0 | 58.9 | 46.2 | 47.1 | 59.8 |
| 2021-January | 50.2 | 49.8 | 52.0 | 67.1 | 57.2 | 49.0 | 47.3 | 57.9 |
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2. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers index
In January, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 52.4 percent, which was 3.3 percentage points lower than that of last month, and was above the threshold for 11 consecutive months, indicating that the non-manufacturing industry maintained a recovery trend, but the momentum slowed down.
In terms of industry, the construction industry business activity index was 60.0 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than last month. The business activity index of service industry was 51.1 percent, 3.7 percentage points lower than that of last month. From the perspective of industry situation, the business activity index of telecommunications, radio and television satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, capital market services, insurance and other industries was above 60.0 percent; the business activity index of air transport, road transport, accommodation, catering, resident services, culture, sports and entertainment was below the threshold.
The index of new orders was 48.7 percent, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the demand of non-manufacturing market was weakened. By industry, the new order index of construction industry was 51.2 percent, 4.6 percentage points lower than that of last month; the new order index of service industry was 48.3 percent, 2.9 percentage points lower than that of last month.
The price index of inputs was 54.5 percent, up 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the prices of inputs used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities continued to rise. By industry, the price index of construction inputs was 60.0 percent, down 1.2 percentage points from last month; the price index of service inputs was 53.5 percent, up 0.4 percentage point from last month.
The sales price index was 51.4 percent, which was 0.9 percentage point lower than that of last month, but still higher than the threshold, indicating that the overall increase of sales price of non-manufacturing industry was narrowed. By industry, the sales price index of the construction industry was 52.9 percent, down 1.1 percentage points from last month; the sales price index of the service industry was 51.1 percent, down 0.9 percentage point from last month.
The employment index was 47.8 percent, down 0.9 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the employment outlook of non-manufacturing industries has fallen. In terms of industries, the employment index of the construction industry was 52.8 percent, up 0.1 percentage point from last month; the employment index of the service industry was 46.9 percent, down 1.1 percentage points from last month.
The expected index of business activities was 55.1 percent, down 5.5 percentage points from last month, and it still stayed in a relatively high boom range, indicating that most non-manufacturing enterprises kept confidence in the development of the industry. By industry, the expected index of business activities in construction industry was 53.6 percent, down 9.9 percentage points from last month; the expected index of business activities in service industry was 55.3 percent, down 4.8 percentage points from last month.
| Main Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||
| Unit: % | ||||||
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| Non-manufacturing PMI | New Orders Index | Input Price Index | Sales Price Index | Employment Index | Business Activities Expectation Index |
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| 2020-January | 54.1 | 50.6 | 53.3 | 50.5 | 48.6 | 59.6 |
| February | 29.6 | 26.5 | 49.3 | 43.9 | 37.9 | 40.0 |
| March | 52.3 | 49.2 | 49.4 | 46.1 | 47.7 | 57.3 |
| April | 53.2 | 52.1 | 49.0 | 45.4 | 48.6 | 60.1 |
| May | 53.6 | 52.6 | 52.0 | 48.6 | 48.5 | 63.9 |
| June | 54.4 | 52.7 | 52.9 | 49.5 | 48.7 | 60.3 |
| July | 54.2 | 51.5 | 53.0 | 50.1 | 48.1 | 62.2 |
| August | 55.2 | 52.3 | 51.9 | 50.1 | 48.3 | 62.1 |
| September | 55.9 | 54.0 | 50.6 | 48.9 | 49.1 | 63.0 |
| October | 56.2 | 53.0 | 50.9 | 49.4 | 49.4 | 62.9 |
| November | 56.4 | 52.8 | 52.7 | 51.0 | 48.9 | 61.2 |
| December | 55.7 | 51.9 | 54.3 | 52.3 | 48.7 | 60.6 |
| 2021-January | 52.4 | 48.7 | 54.5 | 51.4 | 47.8 | 55.1 |
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| Other Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||
| Unit: % | ||||
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| Foreign New Orders Index | Unfilled Orders Index | Stock Index | Supplier Delivery Time Index |
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| 2020-January | 48.4 | 43.6 | 47.2 | 52.1 |
| February | 26.8 | 35.2 | 39.3 | 28.3 |
| March | 38.6 | 43.0 | 46.1 | 46.4 |
| April | 35.5 | 43.4 | 47.0 | 51.0 |
| May | 41.3 | 44.3 | 47.8 | 52.9 |
| June | 43.3 | 44.8 | 48.0 | 52.1 |
| July | 44.5 | 44.9 | 48.1 | 51.9 |
| August | 45.1 | 44.6 | 48.5 | 52.4 |
| September | 49.1 | 46.3 | 48.5 | 52.2 |
| October | 47.0 | 44.9 | 48.7 | 52.3 |
| November | 49.0 | 45.2 | 48.8 | 51.8 |
| December | 47.5 | 44.7 | 47.0 | 51.2 |
| 2021-January | 48.0 | 44.0 | 47.4 | 49.8 |
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3. Composite PMI Output Index
In January, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.8 percent, which was 2.3 percentage points lower than that of last month, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises kept expanding, but the expansion was weakened.
Annotations:
1. Explanatory Notes
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in recession.
2. Statistical Coverage
The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing industry in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2017), and 3000 samples, as well as 37 divisions of non-manufacturing industry, and 4000 samples.
3. Survey Methods
PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.
The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.
4. Calculation Methods
(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indices.
The indicator system of manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indices such as production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager’s survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers’ delivery time, and business activities expectation. The indicator system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indices such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, supplier’s delivery time, and business activities expectation. Sub-indices adopt diffusion index calculation method, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.
(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI.
Manufacturing PMI was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employee’s index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.
(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index.
Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP.
5. Seasonal adjustment
The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.