Business Climate Index declined in the Third Quarter
National Business Climate Survey results showed that the business climate index (BCI) was
I. BCIs of part of service industries increased month-on-month. In the third quarter, the BCI of social services*, lodging and catering industry, transportation, storage and postal industry was 140.0, 135.6 and 130.8, respectively rose by 3.3, 5.8 and 5.0 points over last quarter. BCI of social services amounted to the highest level sine 1999, in which the BCI of business services and public management and social organizations stayed in the booming zone of 130-146 lasting for 7 continuous quarters. BCI of lodging and catering industry reached the highest level, in which BCI of lodging industry located above 120 lasting for 6 continuous quarters, and climbed
The BCI of wholesale and retail trade, and information transmission, computer services and software industry remained the same level with last quarter, which respectively was 148.6 and 164.2. In which, the BCI of wholesale stayed between 140 and 150 lasting for 9 continuous quarters, and that of retail trade was 150-158, and continuously higher than that of wholesale trade. The BCI of information transmission, computer services and software industry continuously stayed at the top of all industries, in which that of telecommunications and other information transmission services located at 170.0 lasting for 2 continuous quarters, that of soft ware industry stayed at 144-150 lasting for 6 continuous quarters.
The BCI of real estate declined month-on-month. Since the third quarter 2009, the BCI of real estate declined below 120 at the first time, and fell at the same time lasting for 3 continuous quarters on month-on-month and year-on-year.
II. The BCIs of industry and construction fell month-on-month and year-on-year. In the third quarter, the BCI of industry stood at 128.8, declined month-on-month and year-on-year. 39 branches of industrial divisions located in the booming zone except processing of petroleum, coking, processing of nuclear fuel declined below the threshold. The BCI of processing of food form agricultural products, manufacture of foods, manufacture of beverages, manufacture of tobacco, printing, reproduction of recording media, manufacture of artwork and other manufacturing increased over last quarter; that of manufacture of textile wearing apparel, footwear and caps, manufacture of furniture, manufacture of paper and paper products, manufacture of plastics, smelting and pressing of non-ferrous metals remained the same level with the second quarter; The BCIs of other industries had some extent of decrease, in which the BCIs of manufacture of leather, fur, feather and related products, manufacture of articles for culture, education and sports activities, manufacture of general purpose machinery, manufacture of special purpose machinery declined over 10.0 points.
In the third quarter, the BCI of construction was 139.8, and declined both month-on-month and year-on-year. In which, the BCI of building and civil engineering decreased month-on-month and year-on-year.
III. The BCIs of foreign funded enterprises, enterprises invested from
IV. The BCIs of large-sized enterprises was 151.3, stood at the high booming level lasting for continuous 8 quarters, that of medium-sized enterprises was 132.4, fell 3.6 and 3.0 points over last quarter; the BCI of small-sized enterprises reached 117.3, remained the same level with last quarter.
V. The BCI of eastern, middle and western regions fell slightly. The BCI of eastern, middle and western regions stood at 134.4, 133.7 and 130.1, down by 2.5, 1.6 and 2.9 points, stayed at the booming zone with 130-140.
VI. The BCIs of listed companies and state key enterprises fell. In the third quarter, the BCIs of listed companies and state key enterprises reached 146.4 and 145.6, declined 3-6 points; that of state-holding enterprises was 135.3, fell 2.4 points over last quarter.
Notes: Preparation Instructions for BCI and ECI
Sources of BCI and ECI came from the Business Climate Survey of NBS
Business Climate Survey was a regular quarterly survey. The Survey covered industry, construction, transportation, storage and postal industry, wholesale and retail trade, real estate, social services, information transmission, computer services and software, hotel and catering. The Survey covered nearly 20,000 sample enterprises selected from different industries, different sized, and different types of registration, based on a combination of key-point investigation and sampling survey methods. The respondents are responsible persons of business corporations and corporation units regarding as corporations for statistical purpose.
Business Climate Survey was a questionnaire survey, by quantifying and processing the results of entrepreneurs’ judgment on the current macroeconomic environment and microeconomic operation status to calculate business climate index, and to comprehensively reflect the status of macroeconomic development, production and operation status of enterprises, and the trends of future development.
ECI comprehensively reflects the views and confidences of the entrepreneurs on macro-economy, and BCI comprehensively reflects the overall economic situation of production and operation of enterprises.
Climate index ranges between 0-200, 100 as the threshold. If the index is above 100, it reflects a boom tend of increasing or improving; if less than 100, it reflects a downward trend in economic conditions or recession; if equal to 100, it reflects little change in economic conditions.
The advantage of BCI and ECI is its wide coverage of the industries and higher comprehensiveness, the disadvantage is not as sensitive as manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), because PMI only reflects the changes in the current month, while that of BCI and ECI reflects the average changes of major industries in the three months.