National Economy Sustained the Momentum of Recovery and Improvement with Solid Progress in High-quality Development in the First Three Quarters

National Bureau of Statistics of China

18 October, 2023

 

In the first three quarters, faced with grave and complex international environment and challenging tasks in promoting reform, development and stability at home, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments strictly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, and fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts. All regions and departments accelerated efforts to foster a new development pattern, took solid steps to promote high-quality development, implemented macroeconomic policy regulation in a precise and robust way, and made efforts to expand domestic demand, boost confidence, and fend off risks. As a result, the national economy sustained the momentum of recovery and improvement with positive factors amassing, as production and supply increased steadily, market demands continued to expand, employment and prices generally improved, and quality of development enhanced steadily.

 

According to the preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first three quarters reached 91,302.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2 percent at constant price. By industry, the value added of the primary industry was 5,637.4 billion yuan, up by 4.0 percent year on year; that of the secondary industry was 35,365.9 billion yuan, up by 4.4 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 50,299.3 billion yuan, up by 6.0 percent. By quarter, the GDP for the first quarter increased by 4.5 percent year on year, for the second quarter 6.3 percent, and for the third quarter 4.9 percent. The quarter-on-quarter GDP for the third quarter increased by 1.3 percent.

 

1. Agricultural Production Was Generally Good and Production of Animal Husbandry Grew Steadily.

 

In the first three quarters, the value added of agriculture (crop farming) went up by 3.6 percent year on year. The total output of summer grain totaled 146.13 million tons, 0.9 percent lower than that of last year, ranking the second highest in history; that for early rice was 28.34 million tons, up by 0.8 percent. The autumn grain generally grew well with the sown area being stable with an increase, and another bumper harvest is expected for the year. In the first three quarters, the output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry was 69.74 million tons, up by 3.9 percent year on year. Specifically, the output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry was up by 3.6 percent, 5.0 percent, 5.2 percent and 4.0 percent respectively; that of milk went up by 7.2 percent and eggs up by 2.1 percent. At the end of the third quarter, the number of pigs registered in stock was 442.29 million, down by 0.4 percent year on year. For the first three quarters, 537.23 million pigs were slaughtered, up by 3.3 percent.

 

2. Industrial Production Saw Accelerated Recovery and Equipment Manufacturing Grew Fast.

 

In the first three quarters, the total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 4.0 percent year on year, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the first half year. In terms of sectors, the value added of mining increased by 1.7 percent year on year, manufacturing went up by 4.4 percent and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water grew by 3.5 percent. The value added of equipment manufacturing went up by 6.0 percent, 2.0 percentage points faster than that of the whole industrial enterprises above the designated size. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added of state holding enterprises was up by 4.6 percent year on year; that of share-holding enterprises was up by 4.8 percent; that of enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan was up by 0.5 percent; and that of private enterprises was up by 2.3 percent. In term of products, the output of solar cells, charging piles and new-energy vehicles went up by 63.2 percent, 34.2 percent and 26.7 percent respectively. In September, the total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.5 percent year on year, the same as that of last month, 0.8 percentage points faster than that of July; or a month-on-month growth of 0.36 percent. In the first eight months, the total profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size went down by 11.7 percent year on year, a decline narrowed by 5.1 percentage points compared with that in the first half year. Specifically, that for August went up by 17.2 percent year on year. In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 50.2 percent, 0.5 percentage points higher than that of last month and the Production and Operation Expectation Index was 55.5 percent.

 

3. Service Sector Maintained Fast Recovery and Contact-and-Gathering-Based Services and Modern Service Industries Played a Stronger Driving Role.

 

In the first three quarters, the value added of services went up by 6.0 percent year on year. Specifically, the value added of accommodation and catering, information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, transport, storage and postal services and financial intermediation grew by 14.4 percent, 12.1 percent, 9.5 percent, 7.5 percent and 7.0 percent respectively. In September, the Index of Services Production increased by 6.9 percent year on year, 0.1 percentage points higher than that of last month, and the growth rate kept picking up for two months in a row. Specifically, the Index of Services Production of accommodation and catering, information transmission, software and information technology services and transport, storage and postal services went up by 17.7 percent, 11.3 percent and 9.3 percent respectively. In the first eight months, the business revenue of service enterprises above the designated size grew by 7.2 percent year on year. In September, the Business Activity Index for Services stood at 50.9 percent, 0.4 percentage points higher than last month; and the Business Activity Expectation Index was 58.1 percent. Specifically, the Business Activity Index for water transportation, postal services, telecommunication, broadcast, television and satellite transmission services, Internet, software and information technology services and monetary and financial services stayed within the high expansion range of 55.0 percent and above.

 

4. Market Sales Was Getting Active and Consumption of Services Grew Fast.

 

In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 34,210.7 billion yuan, up by 6.8 percent year on year. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas reached 29,641.0 billion yuan, up by 6.7 percent year on year, and that in rural areas reached 4,569.7 billion yuan, up by 7.4 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the retail sales of goods were 30,500.2 billion yuan, up by 5.5 percent; the income of catering was 3,710.5 billion yuan, up by 18.7 percent. The sales of goods for basic living saw steady growth, with the retail sales of clothes, shoes, hats and textiles and of grain, oil and food by business above the designated size up by 10.6 percent and 5.3 percent respectively. The sales of upgraded goods went up rapidly. The retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry, sports and recreational articles, and cosmetics by business above the designated size were up by 12.2 percent, 8.3 percent and 6.8 percent respectively. The online retail sales reached 10,819.8 billion yuan, up by 11.6 percent year on year. Specifically, the online retail sales of physical goods were 9,043.5 billion yuan, up by 8.9 percent, accounting for 26.4 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods. In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods went up by 5.5 percent year on year, 0.9 percentage points higher than that of last month, and the growth rate kept increasing for two months in a row; or up by 0.02 percent month on month. In the first three quarters, the retail sales of services went up by 18.9 percent year on year.

 

5. Investment in Fixed Assets Continued to Scale up and Investment in High-tech Industries Sustained Fast Growth.

 

In the first three quarters, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) reached 37,503.5 billion yuan, up by 3.1 percent year on year, or 6.0 percent year on year after deducting price factors. Specifically, the investment in infrastructure was up by 6.2 percent year on year; that in manufacturing up by 6.2 percent, and that in real estate development down by 9.1 percent. The floor space of commercial buildings sold was 848.06 million square meters, down by 7.5 percent year on year; the total sales of commercial buildings were 8,907.0 billion yuan, down by 4.6 percent. By industry, the investment in the primary industry went down by 1.0 percent year on year, that in the secondary industry up by 9.0 percent, and that in the tertiary industry up by 0.7 percent. The private investment was down by 0.6 percent, or up by 9.1 percent year on year after deducting the investment in real estate development. The investment in high-tech industries grew by 11.4 percent year on year. Specifically, the investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services grew by 11.3 percent and 11.8 percent respectively. In terms of high-tech manufacturing, the investment in manufacturing of aerospace vehicle and equipment and in manufacturing of medical equipment, measuring instruments and meters grew by 20.7 percent and 17.0 percent respectively. In terms of high-tech services, the investment in services for transformation of scientific and technological achievements and in professional technical services went up by 38.8 percent and 29.6 percent respectively. In September, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) went up by 0.15 percent month on month.

 

6. Imports and Exports of Goods Was Generally Stable and Trade Structure Continued to Optimize.

 

In the first three quarters, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 30,802.1 billion yuan, down by 0.2 percent year on year. Specifically, the total value of exports was 17,602.5 billion yuan, up by 0.6 percent; the total value of imports was 13,199.6 billion yuan, down by 1.2 percent. The trade balance was 4,402.9 billion yuan in surplus. The imports and exports by private enterprises grew by 6.1 percent, accounting for 53.1 percent of the total value of imports and exports. The imports and exports with the Belt and Road partner countries grew by 3.1 percent, accounting for 46.5 percent of the total value of imports and exports. The exports of mechanical and electrical products grew by 3.3 percent, accounting for 58.3 percent of the total value of exports, 1.5 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. In September, the total value of imports and exports was 3,742.5 billion yuan, a decline of 0.7 percent year on year, with the month-on-month growth increasing for two months on end. Among that, the total value of exports was 2,150.6 billion yuan, down by 0.6 percent year on year; the total value of imports was 1,591.9 billion yuan, down by 0.8 percent.

 

7. Consumer Price Increased Mildly and Decline of Producer Prices for Industrial Products Continued to Narrow.

 

In the first three quarters, the consumer price index (CPI) grew by 0.4 percent year on year. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol went up by 1.1 percent; clothing up by 0.9 percent; housing down by 0.1 percent; articles and services for daily use up by 0.2 percent; transportation and communication down by 2.4 percent; education, culture and recreation up by 1.9 percent; medical services and health care up by 1.1 percent; and other articles and services up by 3.2 percent. In terms of food, tobacco and alcohol prices, prices for pork went down by 6.8 percent, fresh vegetables down by 3.1 percent, grain went up by 1.2 percent, and fresh fruits up by 6.0 percent. The core CPI excluding the prices of food and energy grew by 0.7 percent year on year. In September, the CPI maintained the same level year on year, or up by 0.2 percent month on month.

 

In the first three quarters, the producer prices for industrial products went down by 3.1 percent year on year. Specifically, the prices in September went down by 2.5 percent year on year, with the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points compared with that of the previous month, or up by 0.4 percent month on month. In the first three quarters, the purchasing prices for industrial producers went down by 3.6 percent year on year. Specifically, the prices in September went down by 3.6 percent year on year, with the decline narrowed by 1.0 percentage point compared with that of the previous month, or up by 0.6 percent month on month.

 

8. Employment Was Generally Stable and Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate Declined.

 

In the first three quarters, the urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.3 percent. In September, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0 percent, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month, falling for two months in a row. The surveyed unemployment rate of population with local household registration was 5.1 percent; that of population with non-local household registration was 4.9 percent, among which, the rate of the population with non-local agricultural household registration was 4.7 percent. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.2 percent, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month. The employees of enterprises worked 48.8 hours per week on average. By the end of the third quarter, the number of rural migrant workers totaled 187.74 million, up by 2.8 percent year on year.

 

9. Residents Income Increased Steadily and Income of Rural Residents Grew Faster than That of Urban Residents.

 

In the first three quarters, the nationwide per capita disposable income of residents was 29,398 yuan, a nominal growth of 6.3 percent year on year; the real growth was 5.9 percent after deducting price factors, 0.1 percentage points faster than that of the first half year. In terms of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban households was 39,428 yuan, a nominal growth of 5.2 percent year on year and a real growth of 4.7 percent; the per capita disposable income of rural households was 15,705 yuan, a nominal growth of 7.6 percent year on year and a real growth of 7.3 percent. In terms of income source, the nationwide per capita salary income, net business income, net property income and net income from transfers grew by 6.8 percent, 6.7 percent, 3.7 percent and 5.8 percent in nominal terms respectively. The median of the nationwide per capita disposable income of residents was 24,528 yuan with the nominal growth of 5.4 percent year on year.

 

Generally speaking, in the first three quarters, the national economy sustained the momentum of recovery and improvement with solid progress in high-quality development, which has laid a strong foundation for achieving the annual development targets. However, we should be aware that the external environment is becoming more complex and grave while the domestic demand remains insufficient and the foundation for economic recovery and growth needs to be further consolidated. At the next stage, we must follow the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, adhere to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, and fully, faithfully and comprehensively implement the new development philosophy. We need to focus on the top priority of high-quality development and the strategic task of fostering a new development pattern by expanding effective domestic demand, stimulating the vitality of market players and implementing and delivering the introduced policies more effectively to continuously enhance the economic performance, boost the endogenous driving force, improve the public expectations, and defuse risks and hidden dangers, so as to achieve the annual targets of economic and social development.

 

Notes:

 

1. The growth rate of GDP and its sub-items are calculated at constant prices. The growth rates of value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are calculated at comparable prices. Both are real growth rates. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.

 

2. According to the auto-revision function of the seasonal adjustment model, revisions are made to quarter-on-quarter growth of GDP and to month-on-month changes of the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households), and total retail sales of consumer goods. The revised figures, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for the third quarter of 2023 and month-on-month changes of other indicators for September 2023 are as follows:

 

The quarter-on-quarter growth of GDP since 2022 and the first three quarters in 2023 are 0.8 percent, -2.3 percent, 3.7 percent, 0.8 percent, 2.3 percent, 0.5 percent and 1.3 percent respectively.

 

Month-on-Month Growth Rate of Other Indicators

 

 

 

3. Industrial enterprises above designated size are industrial enterprises with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan.

 

As industrial enterprises above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year-on-year growth rates like that of products output, are as consistent as possible with the current period and different from the coverage of the data published last year. The main reasons are as follows: First, the statistical units change. Every year, some enterprises are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises are removed from the survey because of downsizing. Besides, enterprises that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, canceled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact. Second, duplicated outputs across regions of enterprise groups have been removed based on the ad hoc surveys since duplication is found in the products output of some enterprise groups.

 

4. The Index of Services Production is the change of production in the reporting period compared to the base period with the price factors deducted.

 

5. The scope of the total retail sales of consumer goods include all legal entities, establishments and self-employed individuals involved in retail trades or providing catering services. Specifically, businesses above the designated size include wholesale enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals), retail enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan, 5 million yuan and 2 million yuan respectively.

 

As the wholesale, retail, and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year-on-year growth rates like that of the retail sales of consumer goods by businesses above the designated size is consistent with the current period and different from the coverage of data published last year. The main reasons are: some enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) are removed from the survey because of downsizing every year. Besides, enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, canceled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact.

 

Online retail sales refer to the retail sales of goods and services realized through internet trading platforms (including self-built websites and third-party platforms). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (e.g. virtual goods and services).

 

The total retail sales of consumer goods include the online retail sales of physical goods, but not the non-physical goods.

 

6. The retail sales of services refer to the total value of services directly provided by enterprises (establishments, self-employed units) to individuals and other units for non-production and non-operating purposes in the form of transactions. It aims to reflect the value of services with the nature of consumption sold by service providers in monetary terms, including the retail sales of services in transportation, accommodation, catering, education, health, sports, entertainment, and other fields.

 

7. The growth rates of investment in fixed assets are calculated on a comparable basis.

 

8. Employed people refer to people aged 16 and above who have the ability to work and engage in gainful employment for remuneration payment or business income.

 

9. The median of the nationwide per capita disposable income of residents refers to the per capita disposable income of households which lies in the middle of all surveyed households ranked from low to high on the basis of per capita disposable income level.

 

10. Data of imports and exports are from the General Administration of Customs.

 

11. Due to the rounding-off reasons, the subentries may not add up to the aggregate totals.

 

In case of any differences between English translation and the original Chinese text, the Chinese edition shall prevail.