Purchasing Managers Index for May 2023
Department of Service Statistics of NBS
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)
1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
In May, the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 48.8 percent, decrease 0.4 percentage point from the previous month, below the threshold, and the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry slightly fell.
In terms of enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.0 percent, increase 0.7 percentage point from the previous month, at the threshold; the PMI of medium-sized and small enterprises was 47.6 and 47.9 percent respectively, decrease 1.6 and 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, below the threshold.
From the sub-indexes, among the five sub-indexes that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the supplier delivery time index was higher than the threshold, and the production index, new order index, raw material inventory index and employment index were all below the threshold.
The production index was 49.6 percent, decrease 0.6 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that manufacturing production activities have slowed down.
The new order index was 48.3 percent, decrease 0.5 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the market demand of the manufacturing industry continued to fall.
The raw material inventory index was 47.6 percent, decrease 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry was in expanded decline.
The employment Index was 48.4 percent, decrease 0.4 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a decline in the employment outlook of manufacturing enterprises.
The supplier delivery time index was 50.5 percent, increase 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing industry continued to decrease.
China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)
|
Unit: % |
||||||
|
PMI |
||||||
|
Production Index |
New Order Index |
Raw Material Inventory Index |
Employment Index |
Supplier Delivery Time Index |
||
|
2022-May |
49.6 |
49.7 |
48.2 |
47.9 |
47.6 |
44.1 |
|
June |
50.2 |
52.8 |
50.4 |
48.1 |
48.7 |
51.3 |
|
July |
49.0 |
49.8 |
48.5 |
47.9 |
48.6 |
50.1 |
|
August |
49.4 |
49.8 |
49.2 |
48.0 |
48.9 |
49.5 |
|
September |
50.1 |
51.5 |
49.8 |
47.6 |
49.0 |
48.7 |
|
October |
49.2 |
49.6 |
48.1 |
47.7 |
48.3 |
47.1 |
|
November |
48.0 |
47.8 |
46.4 |
46.7 |
47.4 |
46.7 |
|
December |
47.0 |
44.6 |
43.9 |
47.1 |
44.8 |
40.1 |
|
2023-January |
50.1 |
49.8 |
50.9 |
49.6 |
47.7 |
47.6 |
|
February |
52.6 |
56.7 |
54.1 |
49.8 |
50.2 |
52.0 |
|
March |
51.9 |
54.6 |
53.6 |
48.3 |
49.7 |
50.8 |
|
April |
49.2 |
50.2 |
48.8 |
47.9 |
48.8 |
50.3 |
|
May |
48.8 |
49.6 |
48.3 |
47.6 |
48.4 |
50.5 |
Related Indicators of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)
|
Unit: % |
||||||||
|
New Export Order Index |
Import Index |
Purchase Quantity Index |
Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index |
Producer Price Index |
Finished Goods Inventory Index |
Existing Order Index |
Production and Operation Activities Expectation Index |
|
|
2022-May |
46.2 |
45.1 |
48.4 |
55.8 |
49.5 |
49.3 |
45.0 |
53.9 |
|
June |
49.5 |
49.2 |
51.1 |
52.0 |
46.3 |
48.6 |
44.2 |
55.2 |
|
July |
47.4 |
46.9 |
48.9 |
40.4 |
40.1 |
48.0 |
42.6 |
52.0 |
|
August |
48.1 |
47.8 |
49.2 |
44.3 |
44.5 |
45.2 |
43.1 |
52.3 |
|
September |
47.0 |
48.1 |
50.2 |
51.3 |
47.1 |
47.3 |
44.1 |
53.4 |
|
October |
47.6 |
47.9 |
49.3 |
53.3 |
48.7 |
48.0 |
43.9 |
52.6 |
|
November |
46.7 |
47.1 |
47.1 |
50.7 |
47.4 |
48.1 |
43.4 |
48.9 |
|
December |
44.2 |
43.7 |
44.9 |
51.6 |
49.0 |
46.6 |
43.1 |
51.9 |
|
2023-January |
46.1 |
46.7 |
50.4 |
52.2 |
48.7 |
47.2 |
44.5 |
55.6 |
|
February |
52.4 |
51.3 |
53.5 |
54.4 |
51.2 |
50.6 |
49.3 |
57.5 |
|
March |
50.4 |
50.9 |
53.5 |
50.9 |
48.6 |
49.5 |
48.9 |
55.5 |
|
April |
47.6 |
48.9 |
49.1 |
46.4 |
44.9 |
49.4 |
46.8 |
54.7 |
|
May |
47.2 |
48.6 |
49.0 |
40.8 |
41.6 |
48.9 |
46.1 |
54.1 |
2. Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers index
In May, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.5 percent, decrease 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, still higher than the threshold, and the non-manufacturing industry resumed restorative growth.
By industry, the business activity index of the construction industry was 58.2 percent, decrease 5.7 percentage points from the previous month; the business activity index of the service industry was 53.8 percent, decrease 1.3 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of the industry, the business activity indexes of railway transportation, waterway transportation, air transportation, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, internet software and information technology services were in the higher boom range of more than 60.0 percent; the business activity indexes of capital market services, real estate were below the threshold.
The new order index was 49.5 percent, decrease 6.5 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the threshold, indicating the market demand of non-manufacturing has fallen. By industry, the new order index of the construction industry was 49.5 percent, decrease 4.0 percentage points from the previous month; the new order index of the service industry was 49.5 percent, decrease 6.9 percentage points from the previous month.
The input price index was 47.4 percent, decrease 3.7 percentage points from the previous month and lower than the threshold, indicating that the overall level of input prices used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities has changed from increasing to decreasing. By industry, the input price index of construction industry was 44.7 percent, decrease 3.4 percentage points from the previous month; the input price index of service industry was 47.9 percent, decrease 3.8 percentage points from the previous month.
The sales price index was 47.6 percent, decrease 2.7 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the threshold, indicating that the overall non-manufacturing sales prices has decreased from the previous month. By industry, the sales price index of the construction industry was 46.9 percent, decrease 4.6 percentage points from the previous month; the sales price index of the service industry was 47.8 percent, decrease 2.3 percentage points from the previous month.
The employment index was 48.4 percent, increase 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a slight growth in the employment outlook of manufacturing enterprises. In terms of industries, the employment index of construction industry was 48.5 percent, increase 0.2 percentage point from the previous month; the employment index of service industry was 48.3 percent, increase 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.
The expectation index of business activities was 60.4 percent, decrease 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be in the higher boom range, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises were optimistic about the recent market recovery and development. By industry, the expectation index of business activities in the construction industry was 62.1 percent, decrease 2.0 percentage points from the previous month; the expectation index of business activities in the service industry was 60.1 percent, decrease 2.2 percentage points from the previous month.
Main Indexes of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)
|
Unit: % |
||||||
|
Business Activity Index |
New Order Index |
Input Price Index |
Sales Price Index |
Employment Index |
Business Activities Expectation Index |
|
|
2022-May |
47.8 |
44.1 |
52.5 |
49.4 |
45.3 |
55.6 |
|
June |
54.7 |
53.2 |
52.6 |
49.6 |
46.9 |
61.3 |
|
July |
53.8 |
49.7 |
48.6 |
47.4 |
46.7 |
59.1 |
|
August |
52.6 |
49.8 |
50.0 |
47.6 |
46.8 |
58.4 |
|
September |
50.6 |
43.1 |
50.0 |
48.2 |
46.6 |
57.1 |
|
October |
48.7 |
42.8 |
51.0 |
48.1 |
46.1 |
57.9 |
|
November |
46.7 |
42.3 |
49.9 |
48.7 |
45.5 |
54.1 |
|
December |
41.6 |
39.1 |
49.2 |
47.5 |
42.9 |
53.7 |
|
2023-January |
54.4 |
52.5 |
51.5 |
48.3 |
46.7 |
64.9 |
|
February |
56.3 |
55.8 |
51.1 |
50.8 |
50.2 |
64.9 |
|
March |
58.2 |
57.3 |
50.3 |
47.8 |
49.2 |
63.3 |
|
April |
56.4 |
56.0 |
51.1 |
50.3 |
48.3 |
62.5 |
|
May |
54.5 |
49.5 |
47.4 |
47.6 |
48.4 |
60.4 |
Other Indexes of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)
|
Unit: % |
||||
|
New Export Order Index |
Existing Order Index |
Inventory Index |
Supplier Delivery Time Index |
|
|
2022-May |
42.8 |
43.2 |
45.2 |
45.3 |
|
June |
50.1 |
44.5 |
46.8 |
50.8 |
|
July |
45.1 |
43.4 |
47.1 |
50.7 |
|
August |
48.9 |
43.9 |
46.6 |
49.7 |
|
September |
46.0 |
41.7 |
45.3 |
48.7 |
|
October |
45.0 |
43.1 |
45.7 |
48.3 |
|
November |
46.1 |
43.2 |
45.6 |
45.0 |
|
December |
44.5 |
43.0 |
45.4 |
40.4 |
|
2023-January |
45.9 |
43.3 |
47.7 |
49.7 |
|
February |
51.9 |
50.3 |
48.2 |
55.2 |
|
March |
48.1 |
45.6 |
47.0 |
52.4 |
|
April |
52.1 |
45.5 |
47.2 |
52.4 |
|
May |
49.7 |
43.9 |
47.1 |
51.9 |
3. Comprehensive PMI Output Index
In May, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.9 percent, decrease 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, still in the boom range, indicating that the overall production and operation of Chinese enterprises continued the momentum of recovery and development.
Annotations:
1. Explanatory Notes
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indexes which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Comprehensive PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a comprehensive index reflecting the changes in the output in current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in recession.
2. Statistical Coverage
The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing industry in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2017), and 3200 samples, as well as 43 divisions of non-manufacturing industry, and 4300 samples.
3. Survey Methods
PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.
The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.
4. Calculation Methods
(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indexes. The indicator system of manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indexes such as production, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employment, supplier delivery time, production and business activities expectation. The indicator system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indexes such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, inventory, input price, sales price, employment, supplier delivery time, and business activities expectation. Sub-indexes adopt the method of diffusion index, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.
(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI. Manufacturing PMI was calculated according to five diffusion indexes (group indexes) and their weights. 5 group indexes and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employment index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw material inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.
(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index. Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP.
5. Seasonal adjustment
The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indexes are seasonally adjusted data.