Purchasing Managers Index for December 2022
National Bureau of Statistics of China2023-01-01 09:30




Department of Service Statistics of NBS

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)

 

1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

 

In December, the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 47.0 percent, decrease 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, below the threshold, and the prosperity level of production and business of the manufacturing industry fell from last month.

 

 

In terms of enterprise size, the PMI of large, medium-sized and small enterprises was 48.3, 46.4 and 44.7 percent respectively, decrease 0.8, 1.7 and 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, all below the threshold;

 

From the sub-indexes, the five sub-indexes that constitute the manufacturing PMI were all lower than the threshold.

 

The production index was 44.6 percent, decrease 3.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that manufacturing production activities continued to fall.

 

The new order index was 43.9 percent, decrease 2.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the market demand of the manufacturing industry continued to decline.

 

The raw material inventory index was 47.1 percent, increase 0.4 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry was in narrowed decline.

 

The employment index was 44.8 percent, decrease 2.6 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a decline in the employment outlook of manufacturing enterprises.

 

The supplier delivery time index was 40.1 percent, decrease 6.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing industry has slowed down.

 

China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

 

Unit: %

 

PMI

 

Production Index

New Orders Index

Raw Materials

Inventory Index

Employment Index

Supplier

Delivery Time Index

2021-December

50.3

51.4

49.7

49.2

49.1

48.3

2022-January

50.1

50.9

49.3

49.1

48.9

47.6

February

50.2

50.4

50.7

48.1

49.2

48.2

March

49.5

49.5

48.8

47.3

48.6

46.5

April

47.4

44.4

42.6

46.5

47.2

37.2

May

49.6

49.7

48.2

47.9

47.6

44.1

June

50.2

52.8

50.4

48.1

48.7

51.3

July

49.0

49.8

48.5

47.9

48.6

50.1

August

49.4

49.8

49.2

48.0

48.9

49.5

September

50.1

51.5

49.8

47.6

49.0

48.7

October

49.2

49.6

48.1

47.7

48.3

47.1

November

48.0

47.8

46.4

46.7

47.4

46.7

December

47.0

44.6

43.9

47.1

44.8

40.1

 

 

Related Indicators of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

 

Unit: %

 

New Export

Orders Index

Import Index

Purchase Quantity Index

Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index

Producer

Price Index

Finished Goods

Inventory Index

Open

Orders Index

2021-December

48.1

48.2

50.8

48.1

45.5

48.5

45.6

2022-January

48.4

47.2

50.2

56.4

50.9

48.0

45.8

February

49.0

48.6

50.9

60.0

54.1

47.3

45.2

March

47.2

46.9

48.7

66.1

56.7

48.9

46.1

April

41.6

42.9

43.5

64.2

54.4

50.3

46.0

May

46.2

45.1

48.4

55.8

49.5

49.3

45.0

June

49.5

49.2

51.1

52.0

46.3

48.6

44.2

July

47.4

46.9

48.9

40.4

40.1

48.0

42.6

August

48.1

47.8

49.2

44.3

44.5

45.2

43.1

September

47.0

48.1

50.2

51.3

47.1

47.3

44.1

October

47.6

47.9

49.3

53.3

48.7

48.0

43.9

November

46.7

47.1

47.1

50.7

47.4

48.1

43.4

December

44.2

43.7

44.9

51.6

49.0

46.6

43.1

 

2. Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers index

 

In December, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 41.6 percent, decrease 5.1 percentage point from the previous month, below the threshold, and the prosperity level of the non-manufacturing industry fell.

 

 

By industry, the business activity index of the construction industry was 54.4 percent, decrease 1.0 percentage points from the previous month. The business activity index of the service industry was 39.4 percent, decrease 5.7 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of the industry, the business activity index of air transport, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services and monetary and financial services was in the boom range of more than 52.0 percent; The business activity index of retailing, road transportation, accommodation, catering and resident services was lower than 35.0 percent.

 

 

 

 

The new order index was 39.1 percent, decrease 3.2 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the threshold, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing market demand. By industry, the new order index of the construction industry was 48.8 percent, increase 1.9 percentage point from the previous month; the index of new orders in the service industry was 37.4 percent, decrease 4.0 percentage points from the previous month.

 

The input price index was 49.2 percent, decrease 0.7 percentage points from the previous month and lower than the threshold, indicating that the overall level of input prices used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities has decreased. By industry, the construction industry input price index was 51.2 percent, increase 2.5 percentage points from the previous month; the price index of service industry inputs was 48.9 percent, decrease 1.2 percentage points from the previous month.

 

The sales price index was 47.5 percent, decrease 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the threshold, indicating that the overall non-manufacturing sales prices continued to decrease. By industry, the sales price index of the construction industry was 50.0 percent, decrease 0.9 percentage point from the previous month; the sales price index of the service industry was 47.0 percent, decrease 1.3 percentage points from the previous month.

 

The employment index was 42.9 percent, decrease 2.6 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the employment outlook of non-manufacturing enterprises fell. In terms of industries, the construction industry employee index was 45.7 percent, decrease 1.4 percentage point from the previous month; the index of service industry employees was 42.4 percent, decrease 2.8 percentage points from the previous month.

 

Main Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

 

Unit: %

 

Business Activity Index

New Orders Index

Input

Price Index

Sales Price Index

Employment Index

2021-December

52.7

48.4

49.3

48.1

47.6

2022-January

51.1

47.8

52.1

51.0

46.9

February

51.6

47.6

53.9

49.8

48.0

March

48.4

45.7

55.9

51.1

47.1

April

41.9

37.4

53.7

48.9

45.4

May

47.8

44.1

52.5

49.4

45.3

June

54.7

53.2

52.6

49.6

46.9

July

53.8

49.7

48.6

47.4

46.7

August

52.6

49.8

50.0

47.6

46.8

September

50.6

43.1

50.0

48.2

46.6

October

48.7

42.8

51.0

48.1

46.1

November

46.7

42.3

49.9

48.7

45.5

December

41.6

39.1

49.2

47.5

42.9

 

Other Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

 

Unit: %

 

Foreign New Orders Index

Open Orders Index

Stock Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

2021-December

47.7

43.4

46.4

49.6

2022-January

46.0

43.9

47.0

49.2

February

48.1

44.1

46.6

49.8

March

45.8

42.8

45.9

45.2

April

42.7

41.2

43.9

42.8

May

42.8

43.2

45.2

45.3

June

50.1

44.5

46.8

50.8

July

45.1

43.4

47.1

50.7

August

48.9

43.9

46.6

49.7

September

46.0

41.7

45.3

48.7

October

45.0

43.1

45.7

48.3

November

46.1

43.2

45.6

45.0

December

44.5

43.0

45.4

40.4

 

3. Composite PMI Output Index

 

In December, the comprehensive PMI output index was 42.6 percent, decrease 4.5 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the threshold, indicating that the overall production and operation of Chinese enterprises have slowed down.

 

 

Annotations:

 

1. Explanatory Notes

 

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in recession.

 

2. Statistical Coverage

 

The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing industry in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2017), and 3200 samples, as well as 43 divisions of non-manufacturing industry, and 4300 samples.

 

3. Survey Methods

 

PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.

 

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

 

4. Calculation Methods

 

(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indices. The indicator system of manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indices such as production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation. The indicator system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indices such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, supplier’s delivery time, and business activities expectation. Sub-indices adopt diffusion index calculation method, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.

 

(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI. Manufacturing PMI was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employee’s index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.

 

(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index. Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP.

 

5. Seasonal adjustment

 

The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.

 

Annex
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