Purchasing Managers Index for September 2022
National Bureau of Statistics of China2022-10-01 09:30




Department of Service Statistics of NBS

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing(CFLP)

 

1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

 

In September, the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 50.1 percent, increase 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, moving into the expansion range.

 

 

In terms of enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.1 percent, increase 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the threshold; the PMI of medium-sized and small enterprises was 49.7 and 48.3 percent respectively, increase 0.8 and 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, still below the threshold.

 

From the sub-indexes, among the five sub-indexes that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index was higher than the threshold, and the new order index, raw material inventory index, employee index and supplier delivery time index were all lower than the threshold.

 

The production index was 51.5 percent, increase 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, rising above the threshold, indicating that manufacturing production activities have expanded.

 

The new order index was 49.8 percent, increase 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the market demand outlook of the manufacturing industry continued to improve.

 

The raw material inventory index was 47.6 percent, decrease 0.4 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry was less than that of the previous month.

 

The employment index was 49.0 percent, increase 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a slight growth in the employment outlook of manufacturing enterprises.

 

The supplier delivery time index was 48.7 percent, decrease 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing industry was longer than that of the previous month.

 

China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

 

 

Unit: %

 

PMI

 

Production Index

New Orders Index

Raw Materials

Inventory Index

Employment Index

Supplier

Delivery Time Index

2021-September

49.6

49.5

49.3

48.2

49.0

48.1

October

49.2

48.4

48.8

47.0

48.8

46.7

November

50.1

52.0

49.4

47.7

48.9

48.2

December

50.3

51.4

49.7

49.2

49.1

48.3

2022-January

50.1

50.9

49.3

49.1

48.9

47.6

February

50.2

50.4

50.7

48.1

49.2

48.2

March

49.5

49.5

48.8

47.3

48.6

46.5

April

47.4

44.4

42.6

46.5

47.2

37.2

May

49.6

49.7

48.2

47.9

47.6

44.1

June

50.2

52.8

50.4

48.1

48.7

51.3

July

49.0

49.8

48.5

47.9

48.6

50.1

August

49.4

49.8

49.2

48.0

48.9

49.5

September

50.1

51.5

49.8

47.6

49.0

48.7

               

 

Related Indicators of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

 

 

Unit: %

 

New Export

Orders Index

Import Index

Purchase Quantity Index

Main Raw Material

Purchase Price Index

Producer

Price Index

Finished Goods

Inventory Index

Open

Orders Index

Production And Business

Activities Expectation Index

2021-September

46.2

46.8

49.7

63.5

56.4

47.2

45.6

56.4

October

46.6

47.5

48.9

72.1

61.1

46.3

45.0

53.6

November

48.5

48.1

50.2

52.9

48.9

47.9

45.7

53.8

December

48.1

48.2

50.8

48.1

45.5

48.5

45.6

54.3

2022-January

48.4

47.2

50.2

56.4

50.9

48.0

45.8

57.5

February

49.0

48.6

50.9

60.0

54.1

47.3

45.2

58.7

March

47.2

46.9

48.7

66.1

56.7

48.9

46.1

55.7

April

41.6

42.9

43.5

64.2

54.4

50.3

46.0

53.3

May

46.2

45.1

48.4

55.8

49.5

49.3

45.0

53.9

June

49.5

49.2

51.1

52.0

46.3

48.6

44.2

55.2

July

47.4

46.9

48.9

40.4

40.1

48.0

42.6

52.0

August

48.1

47.8

49.2

44.3

44.5

45.2

43.1

52.3

September

47.0

48.1

50.2

51.3

47.1

47.3

44.1

53.4

                   

 

2. Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers index

 

In September, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.6 percent, decrease 2.0 percentage point from the previous month, still in the expansion range, and the expansion of non-manufacturing industry has slowed down.

 

 

By industry, the business activity index of the construction industry was 60.2 percent, increase 3.7 percentage points from the previous month. The business activity index of the service industry was 48.9 percent, decrease 3.0 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of the industry, the business activity index of postal service, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services and monetary and financial services was in the higher boom range of more than 60.0 percent; The business activity index of retailing, air transportation, accommodation, catering and resident services was lower than 45.0 percent.

 

 

 

The new order index was 43.1 percent, decrease 6.7 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the threshold, indicating a continuous slowdown in non-manufacturing market demand. By industry, the new order index of the construction industry was 51.8 percent, decrease 1.6 percentage point from the previous month; the index of new orders in the service industry was 41.6 percent, decrease 7.6 percentage points from the previous month.

 

The input price index was 50.0 percent, unchanged from the previous month and on the threshold, indicating that the overall level of input prices used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities unchanged from the previous month. By industry, the construction industry input price index was 52.4 percent, decrease 1.0 percentage points from the previous month; the price index of service industry inputs was 49.6 percent, increase 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

 

The sales price index was 48.2 percent, increase 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be below the threshold, indicating that the overall decline in non-manufacturing sales prices continued to narrow. By industry, the sales price index of the construction industry was 52.0 percent, increase 0.6 percentage point from the previous month; the sales price index of the service industry was 47.5 percent, increase 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.

 

The employment index was 46.6 percent, decrease 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the employment outlook of non-manufacturing enterprises has declined. In terms of industries, the construction industry employee index was 48.3 percent, increase 0.6 percentage point from the previous month; the index of service industry employees was 46.3 percent, decrease 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.

 

The expected index of business activities was 57.1 percent, decrease 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be higher than the threshold, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises maintained confidence about the recent market recovery and development. By industry, the expected index of business activities in the construction industry was 62.7 percent, decrease 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the expected index of business activities in the service industry was 56.1 percent, decrease 1.5 percentage points from the previous month.

 

Main Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

 

 

Unit: %

 

Business Activity Index

New Orders Index

Input

Price Index

Sales Price Index

Employment Index

Business Activities

Expectation Index

2021-September

53.2

49.0

53.5

50.5

47.8

59.1

October

52.4

49.0

57.8

52.7

47.5

58.8

November

52.3

48.9

50.8

50.1

47.3

58.2

December

52.7

48.4

49.3

48.1

47.6

57.3

2022-January

51.1

47.8

52.1

51.0

46.9

57.9

February

51.6

47.6

53.9

49.8

48.0

60.5

March

48.4

45.7

55.9

51.1

47.1

54.6

April

41.9

37.4

53.7

48.9

45.4

53.6

May

47.8

44.1

52.5

49.4

45.3

55.6

June

54.7

53.2

52.6

49.6

46.9

61.3

July

53.8

49.7

48.6

47.4

46.7

59.1

August

52.6

49.8

50.0

47.6

46.8

58.4

September

50.6

43.1

50.0

48.2

46.6

57.1

               

 

Other Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

 

 

Unit: %

 

Foreign New Orders Index

Open Orders Index

Stock Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

2021-September

46.4

44.2

45.9

50.4

October

47.5

44.3

45.5

49.7

November

47.5

43.9

45.6

50.1

December

47.7

43.4

46.4

49.6

2022-January

46.0

43.9

47.0

49.2

February

48.1

44.1

46.6

49.8

March

45.8

42.8

45.9

45.2

April

42.7

41.2

43.9

42.8

May

42.8

43.2

45.2

45.3

June

50.1

44.5

46.8

50.8

July

45.1

43.4

47.1

50.7

August

48.9

43.9

46.6

49.7

September

46.0

41.7

45.3

48.7

           

 

3. Composite PMI Output Index

 

In September, the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.9 percent, decrease 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, still higher than the threshold, indicating that the overall production and operation of Chinese enterprises continued to expand, but the pace of expansion has slowed down.

 

 

Annotations:

 

1. Explanatory Notes

 

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in recession.

 

2. Statistical Coverage

 

The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing industry in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2017), and 3000 samples, as well as 43 divisions of non-manufacturing industry, and 4200 samples.

 

3. Survey Methods

 

PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.

 

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

 

4. Calculation Methods

 

(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indices.

 

The indicator system of manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indices such as production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager’s survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers’ delivery time, and business activities expectation. The indicator system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indices such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, supplier’s delivery time, and business activities expectation. Sub-indices adopt diffusion index calculation method, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.

 

(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI.

 

Manufacturing PMI was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employee’s index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.

 

(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index.

 

Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP.

 

5. Seasonal Adjustment

 

The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.

 

Annex
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