Purchasing Managers Index for June 2022
National Bureau of Statistics of China2022-07-05 16:01




Department of Service Statistics of NBS

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)

 

1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

 

In June, the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 50.2 percent, up 0.6 percentage point from the previous month, returning to above the threshold, and the manufacturing industry recovered and expanded.

 

 

In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.2 percent, down 0.8 percentage point from the previous month, still higher than the threshold; the PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 51.3 percent, an increase of 1.9 percentage points over the previous month, returning to above the threshold; and the PMI of small enterprises was 48.6 percent, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, still below the threshold.

 

In terms of sub-indexes, among the five sub-indexes that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index and supplier delivery time index were all above the threshold, and the raw material inventory index and employee index were all below the threshold.

 

The production index was 52.8 percent, an increase of 3.1 percentage points over the previous month, returning to above the threshold, indicating that the recovery of manufacturing production was accelerated.

 

The new order index was 50.4 percent, up 2.2 percentage points over the previous month, returning to above the threshold, indicating that the market demand of the manufacturing industry has improved.

 

The raw material inventory index was 48.1 percent, up 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the decline in the inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry continued to narrow.

 

The employment index was 48.7 percent, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that the employment boom level of manufacturing enterprises has rebounded for two consecutive months.

 

The supplier delivery time index was 51.3 percent, an increase of 7.2 percentage points over the previous month, returning to above the threshold, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing industry was significantly faster than that of the previous month.

 

China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

PMI

 

Production Index

New Orders Index

Raw Materials Inventory Index

Employment Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021- June

50.9

51.9

51.5

48.0

49.2

47.9

July

50.4

51.0

50.9

47.7

49.6

48.9

August

50.1

50.9

49.6

47.7

49.6

48.0

September

49.6

49.5

49.3

48.2

49.0

48.1

October

49.2

48.4

48.8

47.0

48.8

46.7

November

50.1

52.0

49.4

47.7

48.9

48.2

December

50.3

51.4

49.7

49.2

49.1

48.3

2022-January

50.1

50.9

49.3

49.1

48.9

47.6

February

50.2

50.4

50.7

48.1

49.2

48.2

March

49.5

49.5

48.8

47.3

48.6

46.5

April

47.4

44.4

42.6

46.5

47.2

37.2

May

49.6

49.7

48.2

47.9

47.6

44.1

June

50.2

52.8

50.4

48.1

48.7

51.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Related Indicators of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

New Export Orders Index

Import Index

Purchase Quantity Index

Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index

Producer Price Index

Finished Goods Inventory Index

Open Orders Index

Production And Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021- June

48.1

49.7

51.7

61.2

51.4

47.1

46.6

57.9

July

47.7

49.4

50.8

62.9

53.8

47.6

46.1

57.8

August

46.7

48.3

50.3

61.3

53.4

47.7

45.9

57.5

September

46.2

46.8

49.7

63.5

56.4

47.2

45.6

56.4

October

46.6

47.5

48.9

72.1

61.1

46.3

45.0

53.6

November

48.5

48.1

50.2

52.9

48.9

47.9

45.7

53.8

December

48.1

48.2

50.8

48.1

45.5

48.5

45.6

54.3

2022-January

48.4

47.2

50.2

56.4

50.9

48.0

45.8

57.5

February

49.0

48.6

50.9

60.0

54.1

47.3

45.2

58.7

March

47.2

46.9

48.7

66.1

56.7

48.9

46.1

55.7

April

41.6

42.9

43.5

64.2

54.4

50.3

46.0

53.3

May

46.2

45.1

48.4

55.8

49.5

49.3

45.0

53.9

June

49.5

49.2

51.1

52.0

46.3

48.6

44.2

55.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

 

In June, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.7 percent, an increase of 6.9 percentage points over the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The prosperity level of the non-manufacturing industry rebounded significantly for two consecutive months.

 

 

By industry, the business activity index of the construction industry was 56.6 percent, up 4.4 percentage points from the previous month. The business activity index of the service industry was 54.3 percent, up 7.2 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of industry conditions, the business activity index of retail, railway transportation, road transportation, air transportation, postal service, monetary and financial services, and capital market services was above 55.0 percent; and the business activity index of real estate, and residential services continued to be below the threshold.

 

 

 

The new order index was 53.2 percent, an increase of 9.1 percentage points over the previous month, returning to above the threshold, indicating that the market demand of non-manufacturing industries has recovered. By industry, the new order index of the construction industry was 50.8 percent, up 4.4 percentage points from the previous month; the index of new orders in the service industry was 53.7 percent, up 10.0 percentage points over the previous month.

 

The input price index was 52.6 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage point over the previous month, higher than the threshold, indicating that the overall level of input prices used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities increased over the previous month. By industry, the construction industry input price index was 48.7 percent, down 3.7 percentage points from the previous month; the price index of service industry inputs was 53.3 percent, up 0.8 percentage point from the previous month.

 

The sales price index was 49.6 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point over the previous month, lower than the threshold, indicating that the decline in the overall level of non-manufacturing sales prices narrowed. By industry, the sales price index of the construction industry was 50.3 percent, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month; the sales price index of the service industry was 49.5 percent, up 0.5 percentage point from the previous month.

 

The employment index was 46.9 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that the employment prosperity of non-manufacturing enterprises has improved. By industry, the employment index of the construction industry was 48.3 percent, up 2.8 percentage points from the previous month; the index of service industry employees was 46.6 percent, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month.

 

The expected index of business activities was 61.3 percent, an increase of 5.7 percentage points over the previous month, higher than the threshold, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises have significantly increased their confidence in the recent recovery and development of the industry. By industry, the expected index of business activities in the construction industry was 63.1 percent, up 5.2 percentage points from the previous month; the expected index of business activities in the service industry was 61.0 percent, up 5.8 percentage points from the previous month.

 

Main Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

Business Activity Index

New Orders Index

Input Price Index

Sales Price Index

Employment Index

Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021- June

53.5

49.6

53.4

51.4

48.0

60.8

July

53.3

49.7

53.5

51.3

48.2

60.7

August

47.5

42.2

51.3

49.3

47.0

57.4

September

53.2

49.0

53.5

50.5

47.8

59.1

October

52.4

49.0

57.8

52.7

47.5

58.8

November

52.3

48.9

50.8

50.1

47.3

58.2

December

52.7

48.4

49.3

48.1

47.6

57.3

2022-January

51.1

47.8

52.1

51.0

46.9

57.9

February

51.6

47.6

53.9

49.8

48.0

60.5

March

48.4

45.7

55.9

51.1

47.1

54.6

April

41.9

37.4

53.7

48.9

45.4

53.6

May

47.8

44.1

52.5

49.4

45.3

55.6

June

54.7

53.2

52.6

49.6

46.9

61.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

Foreign New Orders Index

Open Orders Index

Stock Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

 

 

 

 

 

2021- June

45.4

43.8

47.0

51.0

July

47.7

44.8

47.3

51.3

August

43.9

42.9

45.9

49.2

September

46.4

44.2

45.9

50.4

October

47.5

44.3

45.5

49.7

November

47.5

43.9

45.6

50.1

December

47.7

43.4

46.4

49.6

2022-January

46.0

43.9

47.0

49.2

February

48.1

44.1

46.6

49.8

March

45.8

42.8

45.9

45.2

April

42.7

41.2

43.9

42.8

May

42.8

43.2

45.2

45.3

June

50.1

44.5

46.8

50.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Composite PMI Output Index

 

In June, the comprehensive PMI output index was 54.1 percent, an increase of 5.7 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that the production and operation of Chinese enterprises generally showed a restorative expansion.

 

 

Annotations:

 

1. Explanatory Notes

 

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in recession.

 

2. Statistical Coverage

 

The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing industry in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2017), and 3000 samples, as well as 43 divisions of non-manufacturing industry, and 4200 samples.

 

3. Survey Methods

 

PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.

 

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

 

4. Calculation Methods

 

(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indices.

 

The indicator system of manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indices such as production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager’s survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers’ delivery time, and business activities expectation. The indicator system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indices such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, supplier’s delivery time, and business activities expectation. Sub-indices adopt diffusion index calculation method, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.

 

(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI.

 

Manufacturing PMI was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employee’s index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.

 

(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index. 

 

Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP.

 

5. Seasonal adjustment

 

The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.

 

Annex
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