Purchasing Managers Index for September 2021
National Bureau of Statistics of China2021-10-08 09:00




Department of Service Statistics of NBS

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing(CFLP)

 

1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

 

In September, the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 49.6 percent, 0.5 percentage point lower than that of the previous month, which declined below the threshold, and the prosperity level of manufacturing industry has dropped.

 

 

In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.4 percent, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and continued to be higher than the threshold; the PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 49.7 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points over the previous month, lower than the threshold; the PMI of small enterprises was 47.5 percent, down 0.7 percentage point from the previous month, lower than the threshold.

 

From the sub index, among the five sub-indexes constituting the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, raw material inventory index, employee index and supplier delivery time index were all lower than the threshold.

 

The production index was 49.5 percent, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the threshold, indicating that the production of the manufacturing industry slowed down.

 

The new order index was 49.3 percent, down 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, lower than the threshold, indicating that the market demand of the manufacturing industry has decreased.

 

The raw material inventory index was 48.2 percent, up 0.5 percentage point over the previous month, but still below the threshold, indicating that the decline in the inventory of main raw materials in the manufacturing industry has narrowed.

 

The employment index was 49.0 percent, down 0.6 percentage point over the previous month, but still below the threshold, indicating that the employment climate of manufacturing enterprises has decreased.

 

The supplier delivery time index was 48.1 percent, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, still lower than the threshold, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing industry continued to be extended.

 

China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

PMI

 

Production Index

New Orders Index

Main Raw Materials Inventory Index

Employed Person Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2020-September

51.5

54.0

52.8

48.5

49.6

50.7

October

51.4

53.9

52.8

48.0

49.3

50.6

November

52.1

54.7

53.9

48.6

49.5

50.1

December

51.9

54.2

53.6

48.6

49.6

49.9

2021-January

51.3

53.5

52.3

49.0

48.4

48.8

February

50.6

51.9

51.5

47.7

48.1

47.9

March

51.9

53.9

53.6

48.4

50.1

50.0

April

51.1

52.2

52.0

48.3

49.6

48.7

May

51.0

52.7

51.3

47.7

48.9

47.6

June

50.9

51.9

51.5

48.0

49.2

47.9

July

50.4

51.0

50.9

47.7

49.6

48.9

August

50.1

50.9

49.6

47.7

49.6

48.0

September

49.6

49.5

49.3

48.2

49.0

48.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Related Indicators of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

New Export Orders Index

Import Index

Purchase Quantity Index

Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index

Producer Price Index

Finished Goods Inventory Index

Open Orders Index

Production And Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2020-September

50.8

50.4

53.6

58.5

52.5

48.4

46.1

58.7

October

51.0

50.8

53.1

58.8

53.2

44.9

47.2

59.3

November

51.5

50.9

53.7

62.6

56.5

45.7

46.7

60.1

December

51.3

50.4

53.2

68.0

58.9

46.2

47.1

59.8

2021-January

50.2

49.8

52.0

67.1

57.2

49.0

47.3

57.9

February

48.8

49.6

51.6

66.7

58.5

48.0

46.1

59.2

March

51.2

51.1

53.1

69.4

59.8

46.7

46.6

58.5

April

50.4

50.6

51.7

66.9

57.3

46.8

46.4

58.3

May

48.3

50.9

51.9

72.8

60.6

46.5

45.9

58.2

June

48.1

49.7

51.7

61.2

51.4

47.1

46.6

57.9

July

47.7

49.4

50.8

62.9

53.8

47.6

46.1

57.8

August

46.7

48.3

50.3

61.3

53.4

47.7

45.9

57.5

September

46.2

46.8

49.7

63.5

56.4

47.2

45.6

56.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers index

 

In September, the business activity index of non-manufacturing industry was 53.2 percent, 5.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, climbing above the threshold, indicating that the prosperity level of non-manufacturing industry rebounded rapidly.

 

 

By industry, the business activity index of the construction industry was 57.5 percent, 3.0 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The business activity index of the service industry was 52.4 percent, 7.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. In terms of industry conditions, the business activity index of road transportation, air transportation, accommodation, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services were in the high boom range of more than 60.0 percent; the business activity index of capital market services and real estate was below the threshold.

 

 

 

The new order index was 49.0 percent, up 6.8 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the threshold, indicating that the decline in demand in the non-manufacturing market narrowed. By industry, the new order index of the construction industry was 49.3 percent, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month; the new order index of the service industry was 49.0 percent, an increase of 8.5 percentage points over the previous month.

 

The input price index was 53.5 percent, an increase of 2.2 percentage points over the previous month, higher than the threshold, indicating that the overall level of input prices used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities continued to rise. By industry, the price index of construction inputs was 62.8 percent, an increase of 7.5 percentage points over the previous month; the price index of service inputs was 51.8 percent, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month.

 

The sales price index was 50.5 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over the previous month, higher than the threshold, indicating that the overall sales price level of non-manufacturing industry has increased. By industry, the sales price index of the construction industry was 55.8 percent, an increase of 2.2 percentage points over the previous month; the sales price index of the service industry was 49.6 percent, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month.

 

The employee index was 47.8 percent, 0.8 percentage point higher than that of the previous month, indicating that the employment climate of non-manufacturing enterprises has improved. By industry, the employment index of the construction industry was 52.6 percent, an increase of 2.0 percentage points over the previous month; the employment index of the service industry was 46.9 percent, up 0.5 percentage point from the previous month.

 

The expected index of business activities was 59.1 percent, an increase of 1.7 percentage points over the previous month, which was in a high boom range, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises have strong confidence in the recent market development. By industry, the expected index of business activities of the construction industry was 60.1 percent, an increase of 1.7 percentage points over the previous month; the expected index of business activities in the service industry was 58.9 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points over the previous month.

 

Main Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

Non-manufacturing

PMI

New Orders Index

Input Price Index

Sales Price Index

Employment Index

Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2020-September

55.9

54.0

50.6

48.9

49.1

63.0

October

56.2

53.0

50.9

49.4

49.4

62.9

November

56.4

52.8

52.7

51.0

48.9

61.2

December

55.7

51.9

54.3

52.3

48.7

60.6

2021-January

52.4

48.7

54.5

51.4

47.8

55.1

February

51.4

48.9

54.7

50.1

48.4

64.0

March

56.3

55.9

56.2

52.2

49.7

63.7

April

54.9

51.5

54.9

51.2

48.7

63.0

May

55.2

52.2

57.7

52.8

48.9

62.9

June

53.5

49.6

53.4

51.4

48.0

60.8

July

53.3

49.7

53.5

51.3

48.2

60.7

August

47.5

42.2

51.3

49.3

47.0

57.4

September

53.2

49.0

53.5

50.5

47.8

59.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

Foreign New Orders Index

Unfilled Orders Index

Stock Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

 

 

 

 

 

2020-September

49.1

46.3

48.5

52.2

October

47.0

44.9

48.7

52.3

November

49.0

45.2

48.8

51.8

December

47.5

44.7

47.0

51.2

2021-January

48.0

44.0

47.4

49.8

February

45.7

44.0

45.9

49.8

March

50.3

45.9

48.2

51.8

April

48.1

45.8

47.2

50.9

May

47.6

44.7

47.2

50.8

June

45.4

43.8

47.0

51.0

July

47.7

44.8

47.3

51.3

August

43.9

42.9

45.9

49.2

September

46.4

44.2

45.9

50.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Composite PMI Output Index

 

In September, the comprehensive PMI output index was 51.7 percent, 2.8 percentage points higher than that of last month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises have accelerated compared with last month.

 

 

Annotations:

 

1. Explanatory Notes

 

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in recession.

 

2. Statistical Coverage

 

The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing industry in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2017), and 3000 samples, as well as 43 divisions of non-manufacturing industry, and 4200 samples.

 

3. Survey Methods

 

PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.

 

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

 

4. Calculation Methods

 

(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indices.

 

The indicator system of manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indices such as production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager’s survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers’ delivery time, and business activities expectation. The indicator system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indices such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, supplier’s delivery time, and business activities expectation. Sub-indices adopt diffusion index calculation method, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.

 

(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI.

 

Manufacturing PMI was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employee’s index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.

 

(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index. 

 

Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP.

 

5. Seasonal adjustment

 

The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.

 

Annex
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