National Economy Sustained the Momentum of Stable Recovery in July
National Bureau of Statistics2021-08-16 10:00




National Bureau of Statistics of China

August 16, 2021

 

In July, faced with the impact of multiple factors including the growing external uncertainties and the domestic COVID-19 epidemic and flooding situation, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments strictly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, and effectively carried out the macroeconomic policies. As a result, China’s economy growth was in line with expectations, the employment and prices remained generally stable, a basic equilibrium was maintained with regard to the balance of payments and the major macro indicators stayed within a reasonable range. The national economy continued the momentum of stable recovery.

 

1. Industrial Production Grew Steadily and High-Tech Manufacturing Industry Demonstrated Strong Momentum of Growth.

 

In July, the total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 6.4 percent year on year, down by 1.9 percentage points than that of June, and higher than that of the same period in 2019 and 2020; the average two-year growth was 5.6 percent; up by 0.30 percent month on month. In terms of sectors, the value added of mining increased by 0.6 percent year on year; that of manufacturing increased by 6.2 percent year on year; and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water increased by 13.2 percent year on year. The value added of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing grew by 15.6 percent and 6.4 percent year on year respectively, or an average two-year growth of 12.7 percent and 9.7 percent respectively. In term of products, the production of new-energy automobiles, industrial robots, integrated circuits and micro computer equipment grew by 162.7 percent, 42.3 percent, 41.3 percent and 10.3 percent year on year respectively, with the average two-year growth all exceeding 14 percent. Goods for basic consumption enjoyed fast growth. The production of household gas water heater, beverage, and chemical fibers went up by 13.9 percent, 10.1 percent and 9.3 percent year on year respectively. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added of state holding enterprises was up by 7.2 percent year on year; that of share-holding enterprises was up by 7.1 percent year on year; that of enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan was up by 3.8 percent year on year; and that of private enterprises was up by 6.1 percent year on year. The total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 14.4 percent year on year in the first seven months, with an average two-year growth of 6.7 percent. Specifically, the value added of manufacturing of medicine and that of electrical machinery and apparatus went up by 29.3 percent and 26.2 percent year on year respectively. In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 50.4 percent, staying above the threshold for seventeen months in a row; the Production and Operation Expectation Index was 57.8 percent.

 

In the first six months, the profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size totaled 4,218.3 billion yuan, up by 66.9 percent year on year, or an average two-year growth of 20.6 percent; the profit rate of the business revenue of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 7.11 percent, 1.66 percentage points higher than that of the first six months in 2020.

 

2. Service Sector Continued to Recover and Business Revenue of Enterprises Grew Generally Fast.

 

In July, the Index of Services Production grew by 7.8 percent year on year, down by 3.1 percentage points than that of June and higher than that of the same period in 2019 and 2020; the average two-year growth was 5.6 percent. Of this total, the Index of Services Production of information transmission, software and information technology services went up by 16.9 percent year on year. In the first seven months, the Index of Services Production grew by 19.6 percent year on year, down by 1.9 percentage points than that of the first six months; the average two-year growth was 6.5 percent. By main industries, the Sub-Index of Services Production of 8 industries all maintained positive year-on-year growth. Specifically, the Index of Services Production of information transmission, software and information technology services went up by 21.6 percent year on year. In the first six months, business revenue of service enterprises above the designated size grew by 29.5 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 11.1 percent, basically the same as that of the first five months. Specifically, the business revenue of information transmission, software and information technology services and that of scientific research and technology services grew by 25.7 percent and 23.9 percent year on year respectively, with an average two-year growth of 17.4 percent and 12.1 percent respectively. In July, the Business Activity Index for Services stood at 52.5 percent, up by 0.2 percentage point than that of June, staying above the threshold for seventeen months in a row. From the perspective of market expectation, the Business Activity Expectation Index for services stood at 60.1 percent, continuing to stay within the expansion range.

 

3. Market Sales Continued to Grow and Online Retail Sales Grew Rapidly.

 

In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,492.5 billion yuan, up by 8.5 percent year on year, down by 3.6 percentage points than that of June and higher than that of the same period in 2019 and 2020, the average two-year growth reached 3.6 percent, and the month-on-month growth went down by 0.13 percent. In the first seven months, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24,682.9 billion yuan, up by 20.7 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 4.3 percent. In July, analyzed by different areas, the retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas reached 3,037.9 billion yuan, up by 8.4 percent year on year; and that in rural areas reached 454.7 billion yuan, up by 8.8 percent year on year. Grouped by consumption patterns, the retail sales of goods were 3,117.4 billion yuan, up by 7.8 percent year on year; and the revenue of catering was 375.1 billion yuan, up by 14.3 percent year on year. Grouped by categories, of the 18 categories of goods by enterprises above the designated size, 16 categories maintained positive year-on-year growth of retail sales. Daily consumer goods and upgraded consumer goods witnessed good momentum of growth. Of the retail sales of goods by enterprises above the designated size, the year-on-year growth rates of grain, oil and food, beverage and daily necessities went up by 11.3 percent, 20.8 percent and 13.1 percent respectively, those of sports and recreational articles, cultural and office appliances and gold, silver and jewelry went up by 20.7 percent, 14.8 percent and 14.3 percent year on year respectively. In the first seven months, the online retail sales reached 7,110.8 billion yuan, up by 21.9 percent year on year. Specifically, the online retail sales of physical goods totaled 5,813.0 billion yuan, up by 17.6 percent year on year, accounting for 23.6 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods.

 

4. Investment in Fixed Assets Was Generally Stable and the Growth of Investment in Manufacturing Accelerated.

 

In the first seven months, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) reached 30,253.3 billion yuan, up by 10.3 percent year on year, 2.3 percentage points lower than that in the first six months, with an average two-year growth of 4.3 percent; the month-on-month growth in July was 0.18 percent. Specifically, in the first seven months, the investment in infrastructure was up by 4.6 percent year on year, an average two-year growth of 0.9 percent, and 1.5 percentage points lower than that in the first six months; manufacturing up by 17.3 percent year on year, an average two-year growth of 3.1 percent, and 1.1 percentage points higher than that in the first six months; and real estate development up by 12.7 percent year on year, an average two-year growth of 8.0 percent, and 0.2 percentage point lower than that in the first six months. The floor space of commercial buildings sold reached 1,016.48 million square meters, up by 21.5 percent year on year; the total sales of commercial buildings were 10,643.0 billion yuan, up by 30.7 percent year on year. By industries, the investment in the primary industry went up by 21.8 percent year on year; that in the secondary industry up by 14.4 percent year on year; and that in the tertiary industry grew by 8.2 percent year on year. The private investment went up by 13.4 percent year on year. The investment in high-tech industries grew by 20.7 percent year on year, an average two-year growth of 14.2 percent. Specifically, the investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services grew by 27.1 percent and 8.8 percent year on year respectively. In terms of high-tech manufacturing, the investment in manufacturing of aerospace vehicle and equipment, in manufacturing of computers and office equipment and in manufacturing of medical equipment, measuring instruments and meters grew by 49.7 percent, 46.9 percent and 34.9 percent year on year respectively. In terms of high-tech services, the investment in E-commerce services and in research, development and design services went up by 42.7 percent and 27.2 percent year on year respectively. The investment in social sectors went up by 13.1 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 10.9 percent. Specifically, the investment in health and education went up by 31.8 percent and 12.1 percent year on year respectively.

 

5. Imports and Exports of Goods Grew Fast and Trade Structure Continued to Improve.

 

In July, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 3,265.7 billion yuan, up by 11.5 percent year on year. Specifically, the value of exports was 1,814.2 billion yuan, up by 8.1 percent year on year and the value of imports was 1,451.5 billion yuan, up by 16.1 percent. The trade balance was 362.7 billion yuan in surplus. In the first seven months, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 21,341.7 billion yuan, an increase of 24.5 percent year on year. Specifically, the value of exports was 11,662.6 billion yuan, up by 24.5 percent year on year; that of imports was 9,679.2 billion yuan, up by 24.4 percent year on year. The trade structure continued to improve. In the first seven months, the exports of mechanical and electrical products grew by 25.5 percent year on year, accounting for 59 percent of the total value of exports. The imports and exports of general trade accounted for 61.9 percent of the total value of imports and exports, 1.5 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year. The imports and exports by private enterprises accounted for 47.9 percent of the total value of imports and exports, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

 

6. Employment was Generally Stable and Urban Employment Continued to Increase.

 

In the first seven months, the newly increased employed people in urban areas totaled 8.22 million, completing 74.7 percent of the annual target. In July, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1 percent, 0.1 percentage point higher than June. The surveyed unemployment rate of population with local household registration was 5.1 percent and that of population with non-local household registration was 5.0 percent. The surveyed unemployment rates of the population aged from 16 to 24 and from 25 to 59 were 16.2 percent and 4.2 percent respectively. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.2 percent, the same as that in June. The employees of enterprises worked 47.7 hours per week on average, 0.1 hour more than that in June.

 

7. Prices Were Generally Stable and Consumer Price Went up Mildly.

 

In July, the consumer price (CPI) went up by 1.0 percent year on year, 0.1 percentage point lower than that in June and up by 0.3 percent month on month. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol went down by 1.8 percent year on year; clothing up by 0.4 percent; housing up by 1.1 percent; articles and services for daily use up by 0.3 percent; transport and communication up by 6.9 percent; education, culture and recreation up by 2.7 percent; medical services and health care up by 0.4 percent; and other articles and services down by 1.3 percent. Among the prices for food, tobacco and alcohol, the price for pork went down by 43.5 percent, fresh vegetables down by 4.0 percent, grain up by 0.7 percent, and fresh fruit up by 5.2 percent. The core CPI excluding the price of food and energy went up by 1.3 percent, an increase expanded by 0.4 percentage point than that of June. In the first seven months, the consumer price went up by 0.6 percent year on year.

 

In July, the producer prices for industrial products went up by 9.0 percent year on year, an increase expanded by 0.2 percentage point compared with that in June, or up by 0.5 percent month on month. The purchasing prices for industrial producers went up by 13.1 percent year on year, the same as that in June, or up by 0.9 percent month on month. In the first seven months, the producer prices for industrial products and the purchasing prices for industrial producers increased by 5.7 percent and 7.9 percent year on year respectively.

 

In general, the national economy sustained the momentum of steady recovery in July. However, given the continuously evolving global situation of the epidemic, the  increasingly complex and severe external environment, and the combined impact of sporadic local outbreaks of COVID-19 and natural disasters on the economy of some regions, the economic recovery is still unstable and uneven. At the next stage, under the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, we must uphold the underlying principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, adhere to the overall coordination of epidemic prevention and control with economic and social development, stick to full, accurate and comprehensive implementation of the new development philosophy, deepen the supply-side structural reforms, accelerate the building of a new development paradigm, advance the high-quality development, accurately implement the routine epidemic prevention and control measures, make good cross-cycle macro policy adjustment, implement macro policies in a scientific and targeted manner so as to keep the economy performing within the reasonable range and to promote a sustained recovery and steady and sound growth of the national economy.

 

Notes:

 

1. The average two-year growth is the geometric mean of the growth with the data of the same period in 2019 as the base.

 

2. The growth rate of GDP and value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are real growth by using comparable prices. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.

 

3. Industrial enterprises above designated size are industrial enterprises with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan.

 

As industrial enterprises above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year-on-year growth rates like that of products output, are as consistent as possible with the current period and different from the coverage of the data published last year. The main reasons are as follows: First, the statistical units change. Every year, some enterprises are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises are removed from the survey because of downsizing. Besides, enterprises that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, canceled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact. Second, duplicated outputs across regions of enterprise groups have been removed based on the ad hoc surveys since duplication is found in the products output of some enterprise groups.

 

4. The Index of Services Production is the change of production in the reporting period compared to the base period with the price factors deducted.

 

5. The scope of the total retail sales of consumer goods include all legal entities, establishments and self-employed individuals involved in retail trades or providing catering services. Specifically, businesses above the designated size include wholesale enterprises (businesses), retail enterprises (businesses) and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses) with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan, 5 million yuan and 2 million yuan respectively.

 

As the wholesale, retail, and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses) above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year-on-year growth rates like that of the retail sales of consumer goods by businesses above the designated size is consistent with the current period and different from the coverage of data published last year. The main reasons are: some enterprises (businesses) are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises (businesses) are removed from the survey because of downsizing every year. Besides, enterprises (businesses) that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, canceled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact.

 

Online retail sales refer to the retail sales of goods and services realized through internet trading platforms (including self-built websites and third-party platforms). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (e.g. virtual goods and services).

 

The total retail sales of consumer goods include the online retail sales of physical goods, but not the non-physical goods.

 

6. Data of investment in fixed assets of the same period last year are revised according to the results of statistical law enforcement and inspection and regulations of statistical survey programs. The growth rates are calculated on a comparable basis.

 

7. Data of imports and exports are from the General Administration of Customs; data of newly increased employed people in urban areas are from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security.

 

8. Employed people refer to people aged 16 and above who have the ability to work and engage in gainful employment for remuneration payment or business income.

 

9. Due to the rounding-off reasons, the subentries may not add up to the aggregate totals.

 

In case of any differences between English translation and the original Chinese text, the Chinese edition shall prevail.

 

Annex
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