Purchasing Managers Index for July 2021
Department of Service Statistics of NBS
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing(CFLP)
1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
In July, the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 50.4 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point compared with last month, and continued to be above the threshold. The manufacturing industry as a whole continued to expand, but the pace slowed down.
In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.7 percent, unchanged from the previous month and continued to be higher than the threshold; the PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 50.0 percent, down 0.8 percentage point from the previous month, at the threshold; and the PMI of small enterprises was 47.8 percent, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the threshold.
From the perspective of sub index, among the five sub-indexes constituting the manufacturing PMI, the production index and new order index were higher than the threshold, and the raw material inventory index, employee index and supplier delivery time index were lower than the threshold.
The production index was 51.0 percent, 0.9 percentage point lower than that of last month, higher than the threshold, indicating that the expansion of manufacturing production had weakened.
The new orders index was 50.9 percent, down 0.6 percentage point from last month, higher than the threshold, indicating that the growth of manufacturing market demand had slowed down.
The raw material inventory index was 47.7 percent, down 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, lower than the threshold, indicating that the inventory of main raw materials in the manufacturing industry decreased compared with the previous month.
The employment index was 49.6 percent, up 0.4 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the employment climate of manufacturing enterprises continued to improve.
The supplier delivery time index was 48.9 percent, up 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, lower than the threshold, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing industry had been extended.
| China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||
| Unit: % | ||||||
| | PMI | | ||||
| Production Index | New Orders Index | Main Raw Materials Inventory Index | Employed Person Index | Supplier Delivery Time Index | ||
| | | | | | | |
| 2020-July | 51.1 | 54.0 | 51.7 | 47.9 | 49.3 | 50.4 |
| August | 51.0 | 53.5 | 52.0 | 47.3 | 49.4 | 50.4 |
| September | 51.5 | 54.0 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.6 | 50.7 |
| October | 51.4 | 53.9 | 52.8 | 48.0 | 49.3 | 50.6 |
| November | 52.1 | 54.7 | 53.9 | 48.6 | 49.5 | 50.1 |
| December | 51.9 | 54.2 | 53.6 | 48.6 | 49.6 | 49.9 |
| 2021-January | 51.3 | 53.5 | 52.3 | 49.0 | 48.4 | 48.8 |
| February | 50.6 | 51.9 | 51.5 | 47.7 | 48.1 | 47.9 |
| March | 51.9 | 53.9 | 53.6 | 48.4 | 50.1 | 50.0 |
| April | 51.1 | 52.2 | 52.0 | 48.3 | 49.6 | 48.7 |
| May | 51.0 | 52.7 | 51.3 | 47.7 | 48.9 | 47.6 |
| June | 50.9 | 51.9 | 51.5 | 48.0 | 49.2 | 47.9 |
| July | 50.4 | 51.0 | 50.9 | 47.7 | 49.6 | 48.9 |
| | | | | | | |
| Related Indicators of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||||
| Unit: % | ||||||||
| | New Export Orders Index | Import Index | Purchase Quantity Index | Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index | Producer Price Index | Finished Goods Inventory Index | Open Orders Index | Production And Business Activities Expectation Index |
| | | | | | | | | |
| 2020-July | 48.4 | 49.1 | 52.4 | 58.1 | 52.2 | 47.6 | 45.6 | 57.8 |
| August | 49.1 | 49.0 | 51.7 | 58.3 | 53.2 | 47.1 | 46.0 | 58.6 |
| September | 50.8 | 50.4 | 53.6 | 58.5 | 52.5 | 48.4 | 46.1 | 58.7 |
| October | 51.0 | 50.8 | 53.1 | 58.8 | 53.2 | 44.9 | 47.2 | 59.3 |
| November | 51.5 | 50.9 | 53.7 | 62.6 | 56.5 | 45.7 | 46.7 | 60.1 |
| December | 51.3 | 50.4 | 53.2 | 68.0 | 58.9 | 46.2 | 47.1 | 59.8 |
| 2021-January | 50.2 | 49.8 | 52.0 | 67.1 | 57.2 | 49.0 | 47.3 | 57.9 |
| February | 48.8 | 49.6 | 51.6 | 66.7 | 58.5 | 48.0 | 46.1 | 59.2 |
| March | 51.2 | 51.1 | 53.1 | 69.4 | 59.8 | 46.7 | 46.6 | 58.5 |
| April | 50.4 | 50.6 | 51.7 | 66.9 | 57.3 | 46.8 | 46.4 | 58.3 |
| May | 48.3 | 50.9 | 51.9 | 72.8 | 60.6 | 46.5 | 45.9 | 58.2 |
| June | 48.1 | 49.7 | 51.7 | 61.2 | 51.4 | 47.1 | 46.6 | 57.9 |
| July | 47.7 | 49.4 | 50.8 | 62.9 | 53.8 | 47.6 | 46.1 | 57.8 |
| | | | | | | | | |
2. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers index
In July, the business activity index of non-manufacturing industry was 53.3 percent, slightly lower than that of the previous month by 0.2 percentage point, and continued to be higher than the threshold, indicating that the overall non-manufacturing industry maintained stable expansion.
By industry, the business activity index of the construction industry was 57.5 percent, 2.6 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The business activity index of the service industry was 52.5 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than that of the previous month. In terms of industry conditions, the business activity indexes of water transportation, telecommunications, radio and television, satellite transmission services, capital market services and other industries were in the high boom range of more than 60.0 percent; the business activity index of other financial industries, real estate, residential services and other industries was below the threshold.
The new order index was 49.7 percent, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point over the previous month, still below the threshold, indicating that the decline in demand in the non-manufacturing market narrowed slightly. By industry, the new order index of the construction industry was 50.0 percent, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month; the index of new orders in the service industry was 49.7 percent, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month.
The input price index was 53.5 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage point over the previous month, higher than the threshold, indicating that the price of inputs used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities increased slightly compared with the previous month. By industry, the price index of construction inputs was 57.1 percent, an increase of 5.4 percentage points over the previous month; the price index of service inputs was 52.8 percent, down 0.9 percentage point from the previous month.
The sales price index was 51.3 percent, slightly down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, higher than the threshold, indicating that the increase in sales prices of non-manufacturing industries narrowed slightly. By industry, the sales price index of the construction industry was 52.9 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage point over the previous month; the sales price index of the service industry was 51.1 percent, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.
The employment index was 48.2 percent, up 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the employment climate of non-manufacturing enterprises had improved slightly. By industry, the employment index of the construction industry was 52.1 percent, an increase of 1.8 percentage points over the previous month; the index of service industry employees was 47.5 percent, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.
The expected index of business activities was 60.7 percent, slightly lower than that of the previous month by 0.1 percentage point, and remained in the high boom range, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises remained optimistic about market development. By industry, the expected index of business activities in the construction industry was 64.0 percent, an increase of 0.8 percentage point over the previous month; the expected index of business activities in the service industry was 60.1 percent, down 0.3 percentage point from the previous month.
| Main Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||
| Unit: % | ||||||
| | Non-manufacturing PMI | New Orders Index | Input Price Index | Sales Price Index | Employment Index | Business Activities Expectation Index |
| | | | | | | |
| 2020-July | 54.2 | 51.5 | 53.0 | 50.1 | 48.1 | 62.2 |
| August | 55.2 | 52.3 | 51.9 | 50.1 | 48.3 | 62.1 |
| September | 55.9 | 54.0 | 50.6 | 48.9 | 49.1 | 63.0 |
| October | 56.2 | 53.0 | 50.9 | 49.4 | 49.4 | 62.9 |
| November | 56.4 | 52.8 | 52.7 | 51.0 | 48.9 | 61.2 |
| December | 55.7 | 51.9 | 54.3 | 52.3 | 48.7 | 60.6 |
| 2021-January | 52.4 | 48.7 | 54.5 | 51.4 | 47.8 | 55.1 |
| February | 51.4 | 48.9 | 54.7 | 50.1 | 48.4 | 64.0 |
| March | 56.3 | 55.9 | 56.2 | 52.2 | 49.7 | 63.7 |
| April | 54.9 | 51.5 | 54.9 | 51.2 | 48.7 | 63.0 |
| May | 55.2 | 52.2 | 57.7 | 52.8 | 48.9 | 62.9 |
| June | 53.5 | 49.6 | 53.4 | 51.4 | 48.0 | 60.8 |
| July | 53.3 | 49.7 | 53.5 | 51.3 | 48.2 | 60.7 |
| | | | | | | |
| Other Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||
| Unit: % | ||||
| | Foreign New Orders Index | Unfilled Orders Index | Stock Index | Supplier Delivery Time Index |
| | | | | |
| 2020-July | 44.5 | 44.9 | 48.1 | 51.9 |
| August | 45.1 | 44.6 | 48.5 | 52.4 |
| September | 49.1 | 46.3 | 48.5 | 52.2 |
| October | 47.0 | 44.9 | 48.7 | 52.3 |
| November | 49.0 | 45.2 | 48.8 | 51.8 |
| December | 47.5 | 44.7 | 47.0 | 51.2 |
| 2021-January | 48.0 | 44.0 | 47.4 | 49.8 |
| February | 45.7 | 44.0 | 45.9 | 49.8 |
| March | 50.3 | 45.9 | 48.2 | 51.8 |
| April | 48.1 | 45.8 | 47.2 | 50.9 |
| May | 47.6 | 44.7 | 47.2 | 50.8 |
| June | 45.4 | 43.8 | 47.0 | 51.0 |
| July | 47.7 | 44.8 | 47.3 | 51.3 |
| | | | | |
3. Composite PMI Output Index
In July, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.4 percent, down 0.5 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the expansion of production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises had slowed down.
Annotations:
1. Explanatory Notes
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in recession.
2. Statistical Coverage
The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing industry in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2017), and 3000 samples, as well as 43 divisions of non-manufacturing industry, and 4200 samples.
3. Survey Methods
PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.
The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.
4. Calculation Methods
(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indices.
The indicator system of manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indices such as production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager’s survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers’ delivery time, and business activities expectation. The indicator system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indices such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, supplier’s delivery time, and business activities expectation. Sub-indices adopt diffusion index calculation method, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.
(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI.
Manufacturing PMI was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employee’s index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.
(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index.
Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP.
5. Seasonal adjustment
The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.