Purchasing Managers Index for February 2021
National Bureau of Statistics of China2021-03-01 15:00




Department of Service Statistics of NBS

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing(CFLP)

 

1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

 

In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 50.6 percent, which was 0.7 percentage point lower than that of last month. It was above the threshold for 12 consecutive months, and the prosperity level of manufacturing industry was lower than that of last month.

 

 

In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 52.2 percent, up 0.1 percentage point from last month; the PMI of small and medium enterprises were 49.6 and 48.3 percent, down 1.8 and 1.1 percentage points from last month, both lower than the threshold.

 

From the perspective of sub index, in the five sub-indexes of manufacturing PMI, production index and new order index were higher than the threshold, while raw material inventory index, employee index and supplier delivery time index were lower than the threshold.

 

The production index was 51.9 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than that of last month, higher than the threshold, indicating that the pace of production expansion of manufacturing industry has slowed down.

 

The new order index was 51.5 percent, down 0.8 percentage point from the previous month, higher than the threshold, indicating that the growth of manufacturing market demand slowed down.

 

The inventory index of raw materials was 47.7 percent, 1.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, lower than the threshold, indicating that the inventory of main raw materials in the manufacturing industry continued to decrease.

 

The employment index was 48.1 percent, down 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the employment outlook of manufacturing enterprises was lower than that of last month.

 

The supplier delivery time index was 47.9 percent, down 0.9 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in manufacturing industry has been extended.

 

China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

PMI

 

Production Index

New Orders Index

Main Raw Materials Inventory Index

Employed Person Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2020-February

35.7

27.8

29.3

33.9

31.8

32.1

March

52.0

54.1

52.0

49.0

50.9

48.2

April

50.8

53.7

50.2

48.2

50.2

50.1

May

50.6

53.2

50.9

47.3

49.4

50.5

June

50.9

53.9

51.4

47.6

49.1

50.5

July

51.1

54.0

51.7

47.9

49.3

50.4

August

51.0

53.5

52.0

47.3

49.4

50.4

September

51.5

54.0

52.8

48.5

49.6

50.7

October

51.4

53.9

52.8

48.0

49.3

50.6

November

52.1

54.7

53.9

48.6

49.5

50.1

December

51.9

54.2

53.6

48.6

49.6

49.9

2021-January

51.3

53.5

52.3

49.0

48.4

48.8

February

50.6

51.9

51.5

47.7

48.1

47.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Related Indicators of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

New Export Orders Index

Import Index

Purchase Quantity Index

Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index

Producer Price Index

Finished Goods Inventory Index

Open Orders Index

Production And Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2020-February

28.7

31.9

29.3

51.4

44.3

46.1

35.6

41.8

March

46.4

48.4

52.7

45.5

43.8

49.1

46.3

54.4

April

33.5

43.9

52.0

42.5

42.2

49.3

43.6

54.0

May

35.3

45.3

50.8

51.6

48.7

47.3

44.1

57.9

June

42.6

47.0

51.8

56.8

52.4

46.8

44.8

57.5

July

48.4

49.1

52.4

58.1

52.2

47.6

45.6

57.8

August

49.1

49.0

51.7

58.3

53.2

47.1

46.0

58.6

September

50.8

50.4

53.6

58.5

52.5

48.4

46.1

58.7

October

51.0

50.8

53.1

58.8

53.2

44.9

47.2

59.3

November

51.5

50.9

53.7

62.6

56.5

45.7

46.7

60.1

December

51.3

50.4

53.2

68.0

58.9

46.2

47.1

59.8

2021-January

50.2

49.8

52.0

67.1

57.2

49.0

47.3

57.9

February

48.8

49.6

51.6

66.7

58.5

48.0

46.1

59.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers index

 

In February, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 51.4 percent, down 1.0 percentage point from last month, indicating that the pace of non-manufacturing expansion has slowed down.

 

 

By industry, the construction industry business activity index was 54.7 percent, 5.3 percentage points lower than last month. The business activity index of service industry was 50.8 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than that of last month. From the perspective of industry situation, the business activity index of railway transportation, telecommunications, radio and television satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services, monetary and financial services, ecological protection and environmental governance was in the high prosperity range of 55.0 percent or above; the business activity index of accommodation, capital market services, leasing and business services was below the threshold.

 

 

 

The index of new orders was 48.9 percent, up 0.2 percentage point from last month, indicating that the decline of non-manufacturing market demand narrowed slightly. By industry, the new order index of the construction industry was 53.4 percent, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous month; the new order index of the service industry was 48.1 percent, down 0.2 percentage point from the previous month.

 

The price index of inputs was 54.7 percent, up 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the prices of inputs used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities continued to rise. In terms of different industries, the price index of construction inputs was 60.2 percent, up 0.2 percentage point over the previous month; the price index of service inputs was 53.7 percent, up 0.2 percentage point over the previous month.

 

The sales price index fell by 1.3 percentage points to 50.1 percent, slightly higher than the threshold, indicating that the overall sales price of non-manufacturing industry was basically the same as that of last month. By industry, the sales price index of the construction industry was 52.5 percent, down 0.4 percentage point from last month; the sales price index of the service industry was 49.7 percent, down 1.4 percentage points from last month.

 

The employment index was 0.6 percentage point higher than that of last month, at 48.4 percent, still below the threshold, indicating that the employment of non-manufacturing industries decreased compared with that of last month. In terms of industries, the employment index of the construction industry was 54.2 percent, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month; the employment index of the service industry was 47.4 percent, up 0.5 percentage point from the previous month.

 

The expected index of business activities was 64.0 percent, up 8.9 percentage points over the previous month, returning to the high economic zone, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises have increased confidence in the development of the industry. In terms of different industries, the expected index of business activities in the construction industry was 68.2 percent, up 14.6 percentage points over the previous month, and the expected index of business activities in the service industry was 63.2 percent, up 7.9 percentage points over the previous month.

 

Main Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

Non-manufacturing

PMI

New Orders Index

Input Price Index

Sales Price Index

Employment Index

Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2020-February

29.6

26.5

49.3

43.9

37.9

40.0

March

52.3

49.2

49.4

46.1

47.7

57.3

April

53.2

52.1

49.0

45.4

48.6

60.1

May

53.6

52.6

52.0

48.6

48.5

63.9

June

54.4

52.7

52.9

49.5

48.7

60.3

July

54.2

51.5

53.0

50.1

48.1

62.2

August

55.2

52.3

51.9

50.1

48.3

62.1

September

55.9

54.0

50.6

48.9

49.1

63.0

October

56.2

53.0

50.9

49.4

49.4

62.9

November

56.4

52.8

52.7

51.0

48.9

61.2

December

55.7

51.9

54.3

52.3

48.7

60.6

2021-January

52.4

48.7

54.5

51.4

47.8

55.1

February

51.4

48.9

54.7

50.1

48.4

64.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

Foreign New Orders Index

Unfilled Orders Index

Stock Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

 

 

 

 

 

2020-February

26.8

35.2

39.3

28.3

March

38.6

43.0

46.1

46.4

April

35.5

43.4

47.0

51.0

May

41.3

44.3

47.8

52.9

June

43.3

44.8

48.0

52.1

July

44.5

44.9

48.1

51.9

August

45.1

44.6

48.5

52.4

September

49.1

46.3

48.5

52.2

October

47.0

44.9

48.7

52.3

November

49.0

45.2

48.8

51.8

December

47.5

44.7

47.0

51.2

2021-January

48.0

44.0

47.4

49.8

February

45.7

44.0

45.9

49.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Composite PMI Output Index

 

In February, the comprehensive PMI output index was 51.6 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than that of last month, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continued to expand in the Spring Festival, but the expansion rate narrowed.

 

 

Annotations:

 

1. Explanatory Notes

 

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in recession.

 

2. Statistical Coverage

 

The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing industry in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2017), and 3000 samples, as well as 37 divisions of non-manufacturing industry, and 4000 samples.

 

3. Survey Methods

 

PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.

 

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

 

4. Calculation Methods

 

(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indices.

 

The indicator system of manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indices such as production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager’s survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers’ delivery time, and business activities expectation. The indicator system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indices such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, supplier’s delivery time, and business activities expectation. Sub-indices adopt diffusion index calculation method, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.

 

(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI.

 

Manufacturing PMI was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employee’s index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.

 

(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index. 

 

Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP.

 

5. Seasonal adjustment

 

The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.

Annex
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