National Economy Sustained a Steady Recovery in November

National Bureau of Statistics of China

15 December 2020

In November, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, all regions and departments fully implemented the spirits of the fifth plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Committee, coordinated efforts to advance both the epidemic prevention and control and the economic and social development, and focused on ensuring stability on six fronts (employment, financial operations, foreign trade, foreign investment, domestic investment and expectations), and maintain security in six areas (employment, basic living needs, operation of market entities, food and energy security, stable industrial and supply chains and the normal functioning of primary-level governments). Industry and services continued to recover, investment and consumption improved, employment and prices were generally stable, and people’s basic livelihood were secured. The national economy maintained steady recovery.

1. The Industrial Production Grew Fast, and Equipment Manufacturing and High-tech Manufacturing Kept a Strong Momentum of Growth.

In November, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 7.0 percent year on year, 0.1 percentage points faster than October, or up by 1.03 percent month on month. In the first eleven months, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 2.3 percent year on year, 0.5 percentage points faster compared with that of the first ten months. An analysis by types of ownership in November showed that, the value added of the state holding enterprises went up by 5.9 percent year on year; share-holding enterprises up by 6.8 percent; enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan up by 8.3 percent; and private enterprises up by 6.8 percent. In terms of sectors, the value added of the mining went up by 2.0 percent year on year, the manufacturing up by 7.7 percent and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water up by 5.4 percent. In November, the value added of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew by 11.4 percent and 10.8 percent year on year respectively, 4.4 percentage points and 3.8 percentage points faster than that of the industrial enterprises above the designated size.

In the first ten months, the total profits made by the industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5,012.4 billion yuan, up by 0.7 percent year on year, featuring the first positive growth in the year. In October, the total profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size went up by 28.2 percent year on year. In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 52.1 percent, the highest in the year and above the threshold for nine months in a row.

2. The Service Industry Continued to Recover and Business Activity Index Remained High in the Expansion Range.

In November, the Index of Services Production increased by 8.0 percent year on year, 0.6 percentage points higher than that of October. In the first eleven months, the Index of Services Production dropped by 0.7 percent year on year, 0.9 percentage points slower than the decline of the first ten months. By main sectors, in November, the production index for wholesale and retail, leasing and business services went up by 6.5 percent and 3.6 percent respectively, or both 1.8 percentage points faster than that of October. In November, the Business Activity Index for business services was 55.7 percent, 0.2 percentage points higher than in October. By sectors, the Business Activity Index for railway transportation, air transportation, telecommunication, radio, TV and satellite transmission and financial intermediation all stayed within the expansion range of 60.0 percent and above. In term of market expectation, the Business Activity Expectation Index was 61.1 percent, above the expansion range of 61.0 percent for five months in a row.

In the first ten months, business revenue of service enterprises above the designated size grew by 0.3 percent year on year, the first positive growth in the year. Specifically, the business revenue of information transmission, software and information technology services grew by 13.0 percent.

3. The Market Sales Continued to Pick up, and the Sales of Upgraded Consumer Goods Grew Fast.

In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,951.4 billion yuan, up by 5.0 percent year on year, 0.7 percentage points faster compared with that in October, and the month-on-month growth was 1.31 percent. In the first eleven months, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 35,141.5 billion yuan, down by 4.8 percent year on year, a decline narrowed by 1.1 percentage points over the first ten months. In November, analyzed by different areas, the retail sales in urban areas reached 3,407.2 billion yuan, up by 4.9 percent year on year, and the retail sales in rural areas reached 544.2 billion yuan, up by 5.6 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the income of the catering was 498.0 billion yuan, down by 0.6 percent year on year; and the retail sales of goods were 3,453.4 billion yuan, up by 5.8 percent, maintaining positive growth for five months in a row. The retail sales of upgraded consumer goods grew fast. In November, the retail sales of communication equipment, cosmetics and gold, silver and jewelry went up by 43.6 percent, 32.3 percent and 24.8 percent respectively. The online retail sales continued to grow. The online retail sales in the first eleven months reached 10,537.4 billion yuan, up by 11.5 percent year on year, 0.6 percentage points faster than that of the first ten months. Of the total, the online retail sales of physical goods went up by 15.7 percent, taking up 25 percent of the total retail sales.

4. The Investment in Fixed Assets Continued to Pick Up and the Private Investment Registered the Positive Growth for the First Time in the Year.

In the first eleven months, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) grew by 2.6 percent year on year, 0.8 percentage points faster than that of the first ten months; and the month-on-month growth in November was 2.8 percent. Specifically, the investment in infrastructure grew by 1.0 percent year on year, 0.3 percentage points faster than the first ten months; and in manufacturing down by 3.5 percent, a decline narrowed by 1.8 percentage points compared with that of the first ten months. The investment in real estate development went up by 6.8 percent, 0.5 percentage points faster than that of the first ten months. The floor space of commercial buildings sold reached 1,508.34 million square meters, up by 1.3 percent year on year, maintaining the same speed as that of the first ten months and the total sales of commercial buildings were 14,896.9 billion yuan, up by 7.2 percent, 1.4 percentage points faster compared with that of the first ten months. By industries, the investment in the primary industry grew by 18.2 percent, 0.9 percentage points faster than that of the first ten months; that in the secondary industry dropped by 0.7 percent, a decline narrowed by 1.4 percentage points compared with that of the first ten months; and that in the tertiary industry went up by 3.5 percent, 0.5 percentage points faster than that of the first ten months. The private investment was up by 0.2 percent, achieving positive growth for the first time in the year. The investment in high-tech industries grew by 11.8 percent year on year, 2.1 percentage points faster than the first ten months. The investment in high-tech manufacturing and services went up by 12.8 percent and 10.0 percent. In terms of high-tech manufacturing, the investment in manufacturing of medicines and manufacturing of computers and office devices grew by 27.3 percent and 20.4 percent respectively. In terms of high-tech services, the investment in e-commerce services and services for commercialization of scientific and technological research findings grew by 32.2 percent and 17.5 percent respectively. The investment in social sectors went up by 11.2 percent year on year. Specifically, the investment in health sector and in education sector went up by 26.1 percent and 13.9 percent respectively.

5. The Import and Export of Goods Grew Fast and the Trade Structure Continued to Optimize.

In November, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 3,091.9 billion yuan, an increase of 7.8 percent year on year. Specifically, the total value of exports was 1,799.5 billion yuan, up by 14.9 percent; the total value of imports was 1,292.4 billion yuan, down by 0.8 percent. The trade balance was 507.1 billion yuan in surplus. In the first eleven months, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 29,043.9 billion yuan, up by 1.8 percent year on year. Specifically, the value of exports was 16,129.1 billion yuan, up by 3.7 percent; the value of imports was 12,914.8 billion yuan, down by 0.5 percent. The trade structure was optimized. In the first eleven months, the exports of mechanical and electrical products grew by 5.4 percent, accounting for 59.3 percent of the total export, playing a pillar role in the export. The value of imports and exports of general trade accounted for 59.9 percent of the total value of imports and exports, 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The total value of imports and exports by private enterprises accounted for 46.4 percent of the total value of imports and exports, 4 percentage points higher than the same period last year. 

6. The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate Continued to Decline and the Employment was Generally Stable.

In the first eleven months, the newly increased employed people in urban areas numbered 10.99 million, accounting for 122.1 percent of the annual target. In November, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2 percent, 0.1 percentage points lower than that of October, falling for four months in a row. Specifically, the surveyed unemployment rate for population aged from 25 to 59 was 4.7 percent, down by 0.1 percentage points. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.2 percent, 0.1 percentage points lower than October. In November, the employees of enterprises worked averagely 46.9 hours per week. 

7. The Growth of Consumer Price Dropped Year on Year, and the Decline of Producer Prices for Industrial Products Slowed.

In November, the consumer price went down by 0.5 percent year on year while in October it went up by 0.5 percent. It registered a month-on-month a decline of 0.6 percent. For the first eleven months, the consumer price went up by 2.7 percent year on year, 0.3 percentage points slower compared with the first ten months. Grouped by commodity categories, in November, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol went down by 0.7 percent year on year; clothing down by 0.3 percent; housing down by 0.6 percent; articles and services for daily use remaining the same; transport and communication down by 3.9 percent; education, culture and recreation up by 1.0 percent; medical services and health care up by 1.5 percent; and other articles and services up by 2.5 percent. Among the prices for food, tobacco and alcohol, the price for pork went down by 12.5 percent, grain up by 1.4 percent, fresh fruits up by 3.6 percent, and fresh vegetables up by 8.6 percent. Core CPI excluding the prices of food and energy went up by 0.5 percent, maintaining the same as in October.

In November, the producer prices for industrial products went down by 1.5 percent year on year, a decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared with that in October, or up by 0.5 percent month on month. The purchasing prices for industrial producers declined by 1.6 percent year on year, 0.8 percentage points slower compared with that of October, or up by 0.7 percent month on month. For the first eleven months, the producer prices for industrial products and the purchasing prices for industrial producers went down by 2.0 percent and 2.5 percent year on year respectively.

Generally speaking, the national economy sustained a steady recovery in November and new progress has been made in ensuring stability in employment, financial operations, foreign trade, foreign investment, domestic investment and expectations and safeguarding security in employment, basic living needs, operation of market entities, food and energy security, stable industrial and supply chains and the normal functioning of primary-level governments. However, we should be aware that given the resurgence of the epidemic, the world economic recovery is facing headwinds with increasing instabilities and uncertainties. The domestic economic recovery is confronted with interlacing old and new issues as well as structural problems which have imposed challenges to promote the continuous economic recovery. For the next step, we must take Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era as the guideline, fully implement the spirits of the fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the CPC, follow the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhere to the new development philosophy and stick to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability. We must promote high quality development, focus on the supply-side structural reform, take reform and innovation as the primary driver, accelerate the building of a new development pattern, expand effective demand, facilitate economic circulation and ensure to meet the annual targets for the economic and social development.

Notes:

1. The growth rate of value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are real growth by using comparable prices. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.

2. Industrial enterprises above designated size are industrial enterprises with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan.

As industrial enterprises above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year-on-year growth rates like that of products output, are as consistent as possible with the current period and different from the coverage of the data published last year. The main reasons are as follows: First, the statistical units change. Every year, some enterprises are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises are removed from the survey because of downsizing. Besides, enterprises that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, canceled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact. Second, duplicated outputs across regions of enterprise groups have been removed based on the ad hoc surveys since duplication was found in the products output of some enterprise groups.

3. The Index of Services Production is the change of production in the reporting period compared to the base period with the price factors deducted.

4. The scope of the total retail sales of consumer goods include all legal entities, establishments and self-employed individuals involved in retail trades or providing catering services. Specifically, businesses above the designated size include wholesale enterprises (businesses), retail enterprises (businesses) and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses) with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan, 5 million yuan and 2 million yuan respectively.

As the wholesale, retail, and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses) above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year-on-year growth rates like that of the retail sales of consumer goods by businesses above the designated size is consistent with the current period and different from the coverage of data published last year. The main reasons are as follows: every year, some enterprises (businesses) are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises (businesses) are removed from the survey because of downsizing. Besides, enterprises (businesses) that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, canceled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact.

Online retail sales refer to the retail sales of goods and services realized through internet trading platforms (including self-built websites and third-party platforms). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (e.g. virtual goods, services goods).

The total retail sales of consumer goods include the online retail sales of physical goods, but not the non-physical goods. 

Data of the total retail sales of consumer goods in 2019 are revised according to the results of the fourth national economic census. Monthly growth rate in 2020 is calculated on a comparable basis.

5. The data of investment in fixed assets of the same period last year are revised according to the results of the fourth national economic census, the statistical law enforcement and inspection, and the regulations of statistical programmes. The growth rates are calculated on a comparable basis.

6. Data of imports and exports are from the General Administration of Customs. Data of newly increased employed people in urban areas are from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security.

7. Employed people refer to people aged 16 and above who have the ability to work and engage in gainful employment for remuneration payment or business income.

8. Due to the rounding-off reasons, the subentries may not add up to the aggregate totals.

In case of any differences between English translation and the original Chinese text, the Chinese edition shall prevail。