Purchasing Managers Index for November 2020
National Bureau of Statistics of China2020-12-01 09:00




Department of Service Statistics of NBS

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing(CFLP)

 

1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

 

In November 2020, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 52.1 percent, up by 0.7 percentage point from last month, which was above the threshold for nine consecutive months, indicating that the recovery growth of the manufacturing industry has accelerated.

 

In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises were 53.0, 52.0 and 50.1 percent respectively, 0.4, 1.4 and 0.7 percentage point higher than the previous month, all above the threshold.

 

According to the classification index, the five sub-indices composing PMI, the production index, new orders index, and supplier distribution time index were all above the threshold, while main raw materials inventory index and employment index stayed below the threshold.

 

 

Production index was 54.7 percent, up by 0.8 percentage point from last month, indicating that the manufacturing production has accelerated.

 

New orders index was 53.9 percent, up by 1.1 percentage points from last month, indicating that the demand of the manufacturing industry has accelerated its recovery.

 

The inventory index of raw materials was 48.6 percent, up 0.6 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the decline in inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry narrowed.

 

The employment index was 49.5 percent, up 0.2 percent from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in the employment situation of manufacturing enterprises.

 

The supplier delivery time index was 50.1 percent, which was 0.5 percentage point lower than the previous month, but it was still higher than the threshold, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in manufacturing industry was slightly faster than that of last month.

 

China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

PMI

 

Production Index

New Orders Index

Main Raw Materials Inventory Index

Employed Person Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2019-November

50.2

52.6

51.3

47.8

47.3

50.5

December

50.2

53.2

51.2

47.2

47.3

51.1

2020-January

50.0

51.3

51.4

47.1

47.5

49.9

February

35.7

27.8

29.3

33.9

31.8

32.1

March

52.0

54.1

52.0

49.0

50.9

48.2

April

50.8

53.7

50.2

48.2

50.2

50.1

May

50.6

53.2

50.9

47.3

49.4

50.5

June

50.9

53.9

51.4

47.6

49.1

50.5

July

51.1

54.0

51.7

47.9

49.3

50.4

August

51.0

53.5

52.0

47.3

49.4

50.4

September

51.5

54.0

52.8

48.5

49.6

50.7

October

51.4

53.9

52.8

48.0

49.3

50.6

November

52.1

54.7

53.9

48.6

49.5

50.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Related Indicators of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

New Export Orders Index

Import Index

Purchase Quantity Index

Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index

Producer Price Index

Finished Goods Inventory Index

Open Orders Index

Production And Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2019-November

48.8

49.8

51.0

49.0

47.3

46.4

44.9

54.9

December

50.3

49.9

51.3

51.8

49.2

45.6

45.0

54.4

2020-January

48.7

49.0

51.6

53.8

49.0

46.0

46.3

57.9

February

28.7

31.9

29.3

51.4

44.3

46.1

35.6

41.8

March

46.4

48.4

52.7

45.5

43.8

49.1

46.3

54.4

April

33.5

43.9

52.0

42.5

42.2

49.3

43.6

54.0

May

35.3

45.3

50.8

51.6

48.7

47.3

44.1

57.9

June

42.6

47.0

51.8

56.8

52.4

46.8

44.8

57.5

July

48.4

49.1

52.4

58.1

52.2

47.6

45.6

57.8

August

49.1

49.0

51.7

58.3

53.2

47.1

46.0

58.6

September

50.8

50.4

53.6

58.5

52.5

48.4

46.1

58.7

October

51.0

50.8

53.1

58.8

53.2

44.9

47.2

59.3

November

51.5

50.9

53.7

62.6

56.5

45.7

46.7

60.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers index

 

In November, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 56.4 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than that of the previous month, which was the highest point in the year. The non-manufacturing industry continued to recover steadily.

 

 

In terms of industry, the business activity index of the construction industry was 60.5 percent, 0.7 percentage point higher than that of the previous month. The business activity index of the service industry was 55.7 percent, up 0.2 percentage point over the previous month. In terms of industry situation, the business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation, telecommunication, radio and television satellite transmission service and financial industry stayed above 60.0 percent, while that of real estate industry, ecological protection and environmental treatment industry was below the threshold.

 

The index of new orders was 52.8 percent, slightly down 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, but still higher than the threshold, indicating the continuous improvement of non-manufacturing market demand. In terms of industries, the index of new orders in the construction industry was 54.0 percent, up 0.9 percentage point over the previous month; the index of new orders in the service industry was 52.6 percent, down 0.3 percentage point from the previous month.

 

The input price index was 52.7 percent, up 1.8 percentage points from last month, indicating that the prices of inputs used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities have increased significantly. In terms of industries, the price index of construction inputs was 57.5 percent, up 4.6 percentage points over the previous month; the price index of inputs in service industry was 51.9 percent, up 1.3 percentage points over the previous month.

 

The sales price index was 51.0 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that the sales prices of non-manufacturing industries in general have changed from falling to rising. By industry, the sales price index of the construction industry was 51.3 percent, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous month; the sales price index of the service industry was 50.9 percent, up 2.0 percentage points from the previous month.

 

The employment index was 48.9 percent, down 0.5 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the employment situation of non-manufacturing industry has declined. In terms of industries, the construction industry employee index was 54.4 percent, up 1.2 percentage points over the previous month; the service industry employee index was 47.9 percent, down 0.8 percentage point from the previous month.

 

The expected index of business activities was 61.2 percent, which was 1.7 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, but it was still in the high boom range, indicating that most non-manufacturing enterprises were optimistic about the development of the industry. In terms of industries, the expected index of business activities in the construction industry was 61.8 percent, down 5.3 percentage points from the previous month; the expected index of business activities in the service industry was 61.1 percent, down 1.1 percentage point from the previous month.

 

Main Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

Non-manufacturing

PMI

New Orders Index

Input Price Index

Sales Price Index

Employment Index

Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2019-November

54.4

51.3

53.2

51.3

49.0

61.0

December

53.5

50.4

52.4

50.3

48.3

59.1

2020-January

54.1

50.6

53.3

50.5

48.6

59.6

February

29.6

26.5

49.3

43.9

37.9

40.0

March

52.3

49.2

49.4

46.1

47.7

57.3

April

53.2

52.1

49.0

45.4

48.6

60.1

May

53.6

52.6

52.0

48.6

48.5

63.9

June

54.4

52.7

52.9

49.5

48.7

60.3

July

54.2

51.5

53.0

50.1

48.1

62.2

August

55.2

52.3

51.9

50.1

48.3

62.1

September

55.9

54.0

50.6

48.9

49.1

63.0

October

56.2

53.0

50.9

49.4

49.4

62.9

November

56.4

52.8

52.7

51.0

48.9

61.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

Foreign New Orders Index

Unfilled Orders Index

Stock Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

 

 

 

 

 

2019-November

48.8

44.6

47.4

52.1

December

47.8

44.5

47.2

52.2

2020-January

48.4

43.6

47.2

52.1

February

26.8

35.2

39.3

28.3

March

38.6

43.0

46.1

46.4

April

35.5

43.4

47.0

51.0

May

41.3

44.3

47.8

52.9

June

43.3

44.8

48.0

52.1

July

44.5

44.9

48.1

51.9

August

45.1

44.6

48.5

52.4

September

49.1

46.3

48.5

52.2

October

47.0

44.9

48.7

52.3

November

49.0

45.2

48.8

51.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Composite PMI Output Index

 

In November, the comprehensive PMI output index was 55.7 percent, up 0.4 percentage point over last month, indicating the production and operation of Chinese enterprises continued to improve.

 

 

Annotations:

 

1. Explanatory Notes

 

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in recession.

 

2. Statistical Coverage

 

The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing industry in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2017), and 3000 samples, as well as 37 divisions of non-manufacturing industry, and 4000 samples.

 

3. Survey Methods

 

PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.

 

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

 

4. Calculation Methods

 

(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indices.

 

The indicator system of manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indices such as production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager’s survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers’ delivery time, and business activities expectation. The indicator system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indices such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, supplier’s delivery time, and business activities expectation. Sub-indices adopt diffusion index calculation method, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.

 

(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI.

 

Manufacturing PMI was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employee’s index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.

 

(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index. 

 

Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP.

 

5. Seasonal adjustment

 

The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.

Annex
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