The National Economy Sustained Steady Recovery in October
National Bureau of Statistics of China2020-11-16 10:00




National Bureau of Statistics of China

16 November 2020

 

In October, under the guideline of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, all regions and departments firmly followed the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council and continued to achieve positive results in the coordination of the epidemic prevention and control and the economic and social development. The production increased steadily, the demand rebounded, employment continued to improve, the prices were generally stable, the market expectations were good and the national economy sustained the momentum of steady recovery.

 

1. Industrial Production Grew Fast Amid Stability and the Growth Rate of Equipment Manufacturing Was High.

 

The total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 6.9 percent year on year in October, the same as that in September; or up by 0.78 percent month on month. In the first ten months, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size went up by 1.8 percent year on year, 0.6 percentage point higher than that in the first nine months. An analysis by types of ownership showed that, in October, the value added of the state holding enterprises went up by 5.4 percent; share-holding enterprises up by 6.9 percent; enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan up by 7.0 percent; and private enterprises up by 8.2 percent. In terms of sectors, the value added of mining increased by 3.5 percent year on year, manufacturing up by 7.5 percent and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water grew by 4.0 percent. In October, the value added of equipment manufacturing grew by 10.8 percent year on year, 3.9 percentage points higher than that of the industrial enterprises above the designated size. Specifically, the production of new-energy automobiles, industrial robots, excavating and shoveling machinery, micro computers and integrated circuits grew by 94.1 percent, 38.5 percent, 30.2 percent, 28.0 percent and 20.4 percent year on year respectively.

 

In the first nine months, the total profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size stood at 4,366.5 billion yuan, down by 2.4 percent year on year, a decline narrowed by 2.0 percentage points compared with that in the first eight months. In September, the total profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size went up by 10.1 percent year on year. In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 51.4%, above the threshold for eight months in a row.

 

2. The Recovery of Service Sector Accelerated and Modern Service Industry Grew Well.

 

In October, the Index of Services Production grew by 7.4 percent year on year, up by 2.0 percentage points compared with that in September. In the first ten months, the Index of Services Production declined by 1.6 percent year on year, a decline narrowed by 1.0 percentage point compared with that in the first nine months. Specifically, in October, the Index of Services Production for real estate, transportation, storage and postal services and other services grew by 9.9 percent, 9.2 percent and 8.4 percent year on year respectively, 3.4 percentage points, 3.1 percentage points, and 1.9 percentage points higher than that in September. The Index of Services Production for Leasing and commercial services shifted from negative to positive for the first time this year and the decline of accommodation and catering services continued to narrow. In October, the Business Activity Index for services was 55.5 percent, 0.3 percentage point higher than that in September. By sectors, the Business Activity Index for railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation and catering and culture, sports and recreation all stayed within the expansion range with the index higher than 59.0 percent; the Business Activity Index for wholesale and retail, ecological protection and environmental treatment continued to stay above the threshold. In terms of market expectation, the Business Activity Expectation Index was 62.2 percent, above the expansion range of 60.0 percent for four months in a row.

 

In the first nine months, business revenue of service enterprises above the designated size declined by 1.0 percent year on year, a decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared with that in the first eight months; of which that of information transmission, software and information technology services grew by 12.1 percent.

 

3. The Market Sales Continued to Pick Up and the Monthly Growth Rate of Catering Revenue Year-on-year Shifted from Negative to Positive.

 

In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,857.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.3 percent, 1.0 percentage point higher than that in September; or a month-on-month growth of 0.68 percent. In the first ten months, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 31,190.1 billion yuan, down by 5.9 percent year on year, a decline narrowed by 1.3 percentage points compared with that in the first nine months. Analyzed by different areas, in October, the retail sales in urban areas reached 3,349.8 billion yuan, up by 4.2 percent year on year, and the retail sales in rural areas stood at 507.8 billion yuan, up by 5.1 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the revenue of catering was 437.2 billion yuan with the year-on-year growth rate of 0.8 percent, shifting to positive growth for the first time this year; and the retail sales of goods were 3,420.4 billion yuan, up by 4.8 percent, achieving positive growth for four consecutive month. The sales of upgraded consumption goods grew fast. In October, sales of cosmetics, gold, silver and jewelry and automobiles grew by 18.3 percent, 16.7 percent and 12.0 percent respectively. The online retail sales continued to grow. The national online retail sales in the first ten months reached 9,127.5 billion yuan, up by 10.9 percent year on year, 1.2 percentage points higher than that in the first nine months. Of the total, the online retail sales of physical goods grew by 16.0 percent, 0.7 percentage point higher than that in the first nine months, accounting for 24.2 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods.

 

4. Investment in Fixed Assets Rebounded Steadily and the Investment Structure Continued to Improve.

 

In the first ten months, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) witnessed a year-on-year increase of 1.8 percent, 1.0 percentage point higher compared with that in the first nine months; the month-on-month growth in October was 3.22 percent. Specifically, the investment in infrastructure was up by 0.7 percent year on year, 0.5 percentage point higher compared with that in the first nine months; manufacturing down by 5.3 percent, a decline narrowed by 1.2 percentage points compared with that in the first nine months; real estate development grew by 6.3 percent, 0.7 percentage point higher compared with that in the first nine months. The floor space of commercial buildings sold reached 1,332.94 million square meters, the same as that in the previous year, while that in the first nine months went down by 1.8 percent; and the total sales of commercial buildings were 13,166.5 billion yuan, up by 5.8 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher compared with that in the first nine months. By industries, the investment in the primary industry went up by 17.3 percent year on year, 2.8 percentage points higher than that in the first nine months; that in the secondary industry down by 2.1 percent, a decline narrowed by 1.3 percentage points compared with that in the first nine months; that in the tertiary industry up by 3.0 percent, 0.7 percentage point higher than that in the first nine months. The investment in high-tech industries went up by 9.7 percent, 0.6 percentage point higher than that in the first nine months; of which the investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services grew by 10.0 percent and 9.4 percent respectively. In terms of high-tech manufacturing, the investment in pharmaceutical manufacturing and the manufacturing of computers and office devices grew by 22.8 percent and 14.8 percent respectively. In terms of high-tech services, the investment in e-commerce services and services for commercialization of scientific and technological research findings grew by 26.5 percent and 17.2 percent respectively. The investment in social sector grew by 10.6 percent. Specifically, the investment in health industry and education industry grew by 24.1 percent and 13.1 percent respectively.

 

5. The Import and Export of Goods Maintained Growth and the Trade Structure Continued to Optimize.

 

In October, the total value of import and export of goods was 2,837.0 billion yuan, up by 4.6 percent year on year. Specifically, the total value of exports was 1,619.4 billion yuan, up by 7.6 percent; the total value of imports was 1,217.6 billion yuan, up by 0.9 percent. The trade balance was 401.8 billion yuan in surplus. In the first ten months, the total value of imports and exports was 25,952.1 billion yuan, up by 1.1 percent year on year. Specifically, the value of exports was 14,329.6 billion yuan, up by 2.4 percent; the value of imports was 11,622.4 billion yuan, down by 0.5 percent. The trade structure continued to optimize. The exports of mechanical and electrical products grew by 3.8 percent, accounting for 59 percent of the total export value. General trade accounted for 60.1 percent of the total trade value, 1 percentage point higher than that in the same period last year. The imports and exports by private enterprises accounted for 46.2 percent of the total, 3.9 percentage points higher than that in the same period last year.

 

6. The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate Continued to Decline and the Employment Was Generally Stable.

 

In the first ten months, the newly increased employed people in urban areas numbered 10.09 million, meeting the target of the whole year ahead of schedule. In October, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than that in September, among which, the surveyed unemployment rate for population aged from 25 to 59 was 4.8 percent, the same as that in September. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.3 percent, 0.2 percentage point lower than that in September. In October, the employees of enterprises worked averagely 46.7 hours per week.

 

7. The Year-on-Year Growth of Consumer Price Eased Slightly and the Decline of Producer Prices for Industrial Products Stayed the Same as Last Month.

 

In October, the consumer price went up by 0.5 percent year on year, 1.2 percentage points lower than that in September, or down by 0.3 percent month on month. For the first ten months, the consumer price went up by 3.0 percent year on year, 0.3 percentage point lower than that in the first nine months. Grouped by commodity categories, in October, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol went up by 2.4 percent year on year; clothing down by 0.3 percent; housing down by 0.7 percent; articles and services for daily use down by 0.1 percent; transport and communication down by 3.9 percent; education, culture and recreation up by 1.1 percent; medical services and health care up by 1.5 percent; other articles and services up by 2.4 percent. Among the prices for food, tobacco and alcohol, the prices for pork went down by 2.8 percent, fresh vegetables up by 16.7 percent, grain up by 1.5 percent and fresh fruits up by 0.4 percent. Core CPI excluding the price of food and energy went up by 0.5 percent, the same as that in September.

 

In October, the producer prices for industrial products went down by 2.1 percent year on year, the same as that in September, or the same month on month. The purchasing prices for industrial producers went down by 2.4 percent year on year, a decline expanded by 0.1 percentage point than that in September, or up by 0.2 percent month on month. In the first ten months, the producer prices for industrial products and the purchasing prices for industrial producers went down by 2.0 percent and 2.6 percent year on year respectively.

 

Generally speaking, the national economy in October sustained steady recovery and progress was further made in implementing tasks to stabilize employment, finance, foreign trade, foreign investment, domestic investment, and market expectations (six areas) and to safeguard residential employment, people’s livelihood, market entities, food and energy security, stability of industrial and supply chains and operations at grassroots levels (six fronts). However, we should be aware that as the global spread of the epidemic has dealt a second blow to countries in the United States and Europe, the world economic and trade recovery is further stalled and the domestic economy is still in recovery with multiple challenges to be conquered before a full recovery. At the next stage, we should align our thoughts and actions with the important decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee with President Xi Jinping at the core, fully implement the decisions of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the CPC, remain sensitive to changes, respond to them with well-judged action, and be ready to adjust the approach when necessary. We shall have a rational understanding of the new development stage, thoroughly implement the new development philosophy, expedite the building of a new development pattern, maintain the security in the six areas, consolidate the foundation for stability on the six fronts, boost new growth drivers by innovation and reform, foster new advantages by expanding opening up, continuously consolidate and expand the gains of epidemic prevention and control and economic recovery so as to ensure a satisfactory conclusion of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and to lay a good foundation for the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan.

 

Notes:

 

1. The growth rate of value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are real growth by using comparable prices. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.

 

2. Industrial enterprises above designated size are industrial enterprises with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan.

 

As industrial enterprises above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year-on-year growth rates like that of products output, are as consistent as possible with the current period and different from the coverage of the data published last year. The main reasons are as follows: First, the statistical units change. Every year, some enterprises are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises are removed from the survey because of downsizing. Besides, enterprises that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, canceled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact. Second, duplicated outputs across regions of enterprise groups have been removed based on the ad hoc surveys since duplication was found in the products output of some enterprise groups.

 

3. The Index of Services Production is the change of production in the reporting period compared to the base period with the price factors deducted.

 

4. The scope of the total retail sales of consumer goods include all legal entities, establishments and self-employed individuals involved in retail trades or providing catering services. Specifically, businesses above the designated size include wholesale enterprises (businesses), retail enterprises (businesses) and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses) with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan, 5 million yuan and 2 million yuan respectively.

 

As the wholesale, retail, and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses) above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year-on-year growth rates like that of the retail sales of consumer goods by businesses above the designated size is consistent with the current period and different from the coverage of data published last year. The main reasons are: some enterprises (businesses) are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises (businesses) are removed from the survey because of downsizing every year. Besides, enterprises (businesses) that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, canceled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact.

 

Online retail sales refer to the retail sales of goods and services realized through internet trading platforms (including self-built websites and third-party platforms). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (e.g. virtual goods and services).

 

The total retail sales of consumer goods include the online retail sales of physical goods, but not the non-physical goods.

 

Data of the total retail sales of consumer goods in 2019 are revised according to the results of the fourth national economic census. The monthly growth rate of 2020 is calculated on a comparable basis.

 

5. Data of investment in fixed assets of the same period last year are revised according to the results of statistical law enforcement and inspection, the fourth national economic census and regulations of statistical survey programs. The growth rates are calculated on a comparable basis.

 

6. Data of imports and exports are from the General Administration of Customsdata of newly increased employed people in urban areas are from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security.

 

7. Employed people refer to people aged 16 and above who have the ability to work and engage in gainful employment for remuneration payment or business income.

 

8. Due to the rounding-off reasons, the subentries may not add up to the aggregate totals.

 

In case of any differences between English translation and the original Chinese text, the Chinese edition shall prevail.

 

Annex
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