Purchasing Managers Index for August 2020
National Bureau of Statistics of China2020-09-01 09:30




Department of Service Statistics of NBS

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing(CFLP)

 

1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

 

In August 2020, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.0 percent, slightly down by 0.1 percentage point from last month, indicating that the overall situation of manufacturing industry run steadily.

 

In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 52.0, unchanged with last month, that of medium enterprises was 51.6 percent, rose by 0.4 percentage point over last month; that of small enterprises was 47.7 percent, fell 0.9 percentage point over last month.

 

According to the classification index, the five sub-indices composing PMI, the production index, new orders index, and supplier distribution time index were all above the threshold, while main raw materials inventory index and employment index stayed below the threshold.

 

 

Production index was 53.5 percent, down by 0.5 percentage point from last month, but still stayed above the threshold, indicating that the manufacturing production improved month on month.

 

New orders index was 52.0 percent, up by 0.3 percentage point from last month, rising for four consecutive months, indicating that the manufacturing market demand continued to recover.

 

Main raw materials inventory index was 47.3 percent, lower 0.6 percentage point than last month, indicating that the inventory of main raw materials in manufacturing industry continued to decrease.

 

The employment index was 49.4 percent, slightly rose by 0.1 percentage point than last month, indicating that the employment outlook of manufacturing enterprises kept basically stable.

 

Supplier distribution time index was 50.4 percent, unchanged over last month, and above the threshold, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in manufacturing industry still has been accelerated.

 

China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

PMI

 

Production Index

New Orders Index

Main Raw Materials Inventory Index

Employed Person Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2019-August

49.5

51.9

49.7

47.5

46.9

50.3

September

49.8

52.3

50.5

47.6

47.0

50.5

October

49.3

50.8

49.6

47.4

47.3

50.1

November

50.2

52.6

51.3

47.8

47.3

50.5

December

50.2

53.2

51.2

47.2

47.3

51.1

2020-January

50.0

51.3

51.4

47.1

47.5

49.9

February

35.7

27.8

29.3

33.9

31.8

32.1

March

52.0

54.1

52.0

49.0

50.9

48.2

April

50.8

53.7

50.2

48.2

50.2

50.1

May

50.6

53.2

50.9

47.3

49.4

50.5

June

50.9

53.9

51.4

47.6

49.1

50.5

July

51.1

54.0

51.7

47.9

49.3

50.4

August

51.0

53.5

52.0

47.3

49.4

50.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Related Indicators of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

New Export Orders Index

Import Index

Purchase Quantity Index

Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index

Producer Price Index

Finished Goods Inventory Index

Open Orders Index

Production And Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2019-August

47.2

46.7

49.3

48.6

46.7

47.8

44.8

53.3

September

48.2

47.1

50.4

52.2

49.9

47.1

44.7

54.4

October

47.0

46.9

49.8

50.4

48.0

46.7

44.9

54.2

November

48.8

49.8

51.0

49.0

47.3

46.4

44.9

54.9

December

50.3

49.9

51.3

51.8

49.2

45.6

45.0

54.4

2020-January

48.7

49.0

51.6

53.8

49.0

46.0

46.3

57.9

February

28.7

31.9

29.3

51.4

44.3

46.1

35.6

41.8

March

46.4

48.4

52.7

45.5

43.8

49.1

46.3

54.4

April

33.5

43.9

52.0

42.5

42.2

49.3

43.6

54.0

May

35.3

45.3

50.8

51.6

48.7

47.3

44.1

57.9

June

42.6

47.0

51.8

56.8

52.4

46.8

44.8

57.5

July

48.4

49.1

52.4

58.1

52.2

47.6

45.6

57.8

August

49.1

49.0

51.7

58.3

53.2

47.1

46.0

58.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers index

 

In August 2020, China’s non-manufacturing business activities index was 55.2 percent, up by 1.0 percentage point than the previous month, rising for six consecutive months above the threshold.

 

 

In terms of different industry, the construction business activity index was 60.2 percent, down by 0.3 percentage point from last month. The service business activity index was 54.3 percent, up by 1.2 percentage points from last month. From the perspective of industry categories, the business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, telecommunication, radio and television satellite transmission service stayed 60.0 percent and above, while the business activity index of capital market service and real estate industry stayed below the threshold.

 

The new orders index was 52.3 percent, up 0.8 percentage point from last month, indicating that demand in the non-manufacturing market has recovered continually. By industry, the new order index of construction industry was 56.4 percent, higher 1.8 percentage points than that of last month; the new order index of service industry was 51.5 percent, higher 0.5 percentage point than of last month.

 

The input price index was 51.9 percent, down 1.1 percentage points from last month, and stayed above the threshold, indicating that the overall growth rate of input price used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities has narrowed. By industry, the input price index of the construction industry was 52.6 percent, lower 2.4 percentage points from last month; that of the service industry was 51.7 percent, down 1.0 percentage point from last month.

 

The sales price index was 50.1 percent, unchanged with last month, and stayed above the threshold, indicating that the overall sales price of non-manufacturing has increased slightly. By industry, the sales price index of construction industry was 52.2 percent, higher 0.9 percentage point than that of last month; that of service industry was 49.8 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than that of last month.

 

The employment index was 48.3 percent, up 0.2 percentage point from last month, indicating that the employment boom of non-manufacturing industry has picked up slightly. By industry, the index of construction industry employees was 54.2 percent, lower 2.0 percentage points over the previous month; that of service industry employees was 47.2 percent, up 0.5 percentage point over the previous month.

 

The business activity index was expected to be 62.1 percent, down 0.1 percentage point from last month but still above the threshold, indicating that the development confidence of non-manufacturing enterprises was stable. By industry, the expected index of construction business activity was 66.6 percent, higher 0.3 percentage point than last month; that of service business activity was 61.3 percent, lower 0.1 percentage point than last month.

 

Main Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

Non-manufacturing

PMI

New Orders Index

Input Price Index

Sales Price Index

Employment Index

Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2019-August

53.8

50.1

50.8

49.1

48.9

60.4

September

53.7

50.5

52.8

50.0

48.2

59.7

October

52.8

49.4

51.3

48.9

48.2

60.7

November

54.4

51.3

53.2

51.3

49.0

61.0

December

53.5

50.4

52.4

50.3

48.3

59.1

2020-January

54.1

50.6

53.3

50.5

48.6

59.6

February

29.6

26.5

49.3

43.9

37.9

40.0

March

52.3

49.2

49.4

46.1

47.7

57.3

April

53.2

52.1

49.0

45.4

48.6

60.1

May

53.6

52.6

52.0

48.6

48.5

63.9

June

54.4

52.7

52.9

49.5

48.7

60.3

July

54.2

51.5

53.0

50.1

48.1

62.2

August

55.2

52.3

51.9

50.1

48.3

62.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

Foreign New Orders Index

Unfilled Orders Index

Stock Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

 

 

 

 

 

2019-August

50.3

44.1

47.0

52.1

September

47.3

43.9

46.4

51.9

October

48.1

44.0

46.7

51.8

November

48.8

44.6

47.4

52.1

December

47.8

44.5

47.2

52.2

2020-January

48.4

43.6

47.2

52.1

February

26.8

35.2

39.3

28.3

March

38.6

43.0

46.1

46.4

April

35.5

43.4

47.0

51.0

May

41.3

44.3

47.8

52.9

June

43.3

44.8

48.0

52.1

July

44.5

44.9

48.1

51.9

August

45.1

44.6

48.5

52.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Composite PMI Output Index

 

In August, the comprehensive PMI output index was 54.5 percent, up 0.4 percentage point over last month, indicating the production and operation of Chinese enterprises continued to recover.

 

 

Annotations:

 

1. Explanatory Notes

 

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in recession.

 

2. Statistical Coverage

 

The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing industry in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2017), and 3000 samples, as well as 37 divisions of non-manufacturing industry, and 4000 samples.

 

3. Survey Methods

 

PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.

 

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

 

4. Calculation Methods

 

(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indices.

 

The indicator system of manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indices such as production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager’s survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers’ delivery time, and business activities expectation. The indicator system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indices such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, supplier’s delivery time, and business activities expectation. Sub-indices adopt diffusion index calculation method, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.

 

(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI.

 

Manufacturing PMI was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employee’s index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.

 

(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index. 

 

Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP.

 

5. Seasonal adjustment

 

The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.

Annex
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