Coordinative Efforts for Epidemic Control and Economic Development Delivered Notable Results with National Economy Recovered Gradually in the First Half of 2020
National Bureau of Statistics of China2020-07-16 10:00




National Bureau of Statistics of China

16 July 2020

 

In the first half of 2020, faced with serious challenges posed by the covid-19 outbreak and a complex and fast-changing environment both at home and abroad, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China with comrade Xi Jinping as the core, the whole nation coordinated efforts to advance both the prevention and control of the epidemic and the economic and social development, firmly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the Central Committee and the State Council, sustained improvement was made in epidemic prevention and control, and the resumption of work, production, business and market was advanced at an accelerated pace. As a result, the national economy shifted from slowing down to rising in the first half of 2020 with economic growth in the second quarter changing from negative to positive and main indicators showing restorative growth. The national economy recovered gradually, the basic livelihood was ensured effectively, market expectation was generally good, and the overall social development was stable.

 

According to the preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China was 45,661.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2020, a year-on-year decline of 1.6 percent at comparable prices. The GDP for the first quarter declined by 6.8 percent year on year and that for the second quarter grew by 3.2 percent. The value added of the primary industry was 2,605.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 0.9 percent; that of the secondary industry was 17,275.9 billion yuan, down by 1.9 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 25,780.2 billion yuan, down by 1.6 percent. The GDP in the second quarter grew by 11.5 percent quarter on quarter.

 

1. Agricultural Production Was Sound and Bumper Harvest of Summer Grain Was Continued.

 

In the first half of 2020, the value added of agriculture (crop farming) grew by 3.8 percent year on year, 0.3 percentage point higher than that in the first quarter; specifically, the figure grew by 3.9 percent in the second quarter, 0.4 percentage point higher than the growth in the first quarter. The overall output of summer grain was 142.81 million tons, an increase of 1.21 million tons over that of the previous year, up by 0.9 percent. The structure of crop farming was further optimized, as sown area for cash crop such as rapeseed increased. In the first half, the output of milk grew by 7.9 percent year on year and that of eggs grew by 7.1 percent. The output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry fell by 10.8 percent, the decrease of which narrowed by 8.7 percentage points compared with that of the first quarter. Specifically, the output of poultry increased by 6.8 percent, up by 5.7 percentage points; that of mutton, beef and pork dropped by 2.5 percent, 3.4 percent and 19.1 percent respectively, the decrease of which narrowed by 5.2 percentage points, 3.0 percentage points and 10.0 percentage points respectively. The pig production capacity continued to recover. By the end of the second quarter, 339.96 million pigs were registered in stock, an increase of 5.8 percent over that by the end of the first quarter, among which 36.29 million were breeding sows, up by 5.4 percent year on year, an increase of 7.3 percent over that by the end of the first quarter.

 

2. Industrial Production Recovered Quickly and High-tech Manufacturing and Equipment Manufacturing Registered Growth.

 

In the first half, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size declined by 1.3 percent year on year, 7.1 percentage points slower than the decline of the first quarter; specifically, the figure grew by 4.4 percent in the second quarter and declined by 8.4 percent in the first quarter. In June, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 4.8 percent year on year, 0.4 percentage point faster than that of May, growing for the third month in a row, or up by 1.3 percent month on month. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added of the state holding enterprises went down by 1.5 percent year on year; that of share-holding enterprises down by 0.8 percent; enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan down by 3.4 percent; and private enterprises down by 0.1 percent. In terms of sectors, the value added of the mining went down by 1.1 percent, the manufacturing down by 1.4 percent and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water declined by 0.9 percent, 0.6 percentage point, 8.8 percentage points and 4.3 percentage points slower than the decline of the first quarter respectively. The value added of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing grew by 4.5 percent and 0.4 percent respectively in the first half; specifically, the figures went up by 10.0 percent and 9.7 percent respectively in June. The output of some engineering machinery and new products witnessed fast growth. In the first half, the production of excavators and shoveling machinery, integrated circuits, industrial robots and trucks grew by 16.7 percent, 16.4 percent, 10.3 percent and 8.4 percent year on year respectively. In the first five months of 2020, the total profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size totaled 1,843.5 billion yuan, down by 19.3 percent year on year, the decline of which continued to narrow. Specifically, the figure went up by 6.0 percent year on year in May, while that in April went down by 4.3 percent. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 50.9 percent in June, 0.3 percentage point higher than that of the previous month, staying above the threshold for the fourth consecutive month.

 

3. The Decline of Service Sector Narrowed and Modern Service Industries Demonstrated Favorable Momentum.

 

In the first half, the total value added of the tertiary industry dropped year on year, 3.6 percentage points less than the decline of the first quarter; specifically, the figure grew by 1.9 percent in the second quarter and dropped by 5.2 percent in the first quarter. By sectors, the value added of information transmission, software and information technology and that of financial services grew by 14.5 percent and 6.6 percent respectively; wholesale and retail trades, accommodation and catering declined by 8.1 percent and 26.8 percent respectively, 9.7 percentage points and 8.5 percentage points slower than the decline in the first quarter. In the first half of 2020, the Index of Services Production decreased by 6.1 percent year on year, 5.6 percentage points slower than the decline of the first quarter; specifically, the figure in June grew by 2.3 percent, 1.3 percentage points higher than that in May. In the first five months, business revenue of service enterprises above the designated size dropped by 6.4 percent, the decline of which narrowed by 2.2 percentage points compared with that in the first four months; specifically, that of information transmission, software and information technology services grew by 8.4 percent. In June, the Business Activity Index for services was 53.4 percent, 1.1 percentage points higher than that in May. Specifically, the Business Activity Index for railway transportation, road transportation, air transportation, postal services, telecommunication, broadcast, television satellite transmission services, internet, software and information services, monetary and financial services, capital market services and insurance stood at 55.0 percent and above. In terms of market expectation, the Business Activity Expectation Index for services was 59.0 percent.

 

4. Market Sales Gradually Improved and Online Retail Sales Grew Fast.

 

In the first half of 2020, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 17,225.6 billion yuan, down by 11.4 percent year on year, or 7.6 percentage points slower than the decline in the first quarter; specifically, the figure went down by 3.9 percent in the second quarter, the decline of which narrowed by 15.1 percentage points compared with that in the first quarter. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,352.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.8 percent, 1.0 percentage point slower than the decline in May, or a month-on-month growth of 1.34 percent. In the first half, analyzed by different areas, the retail sales in urban areas reached 14,934.5 billion yuan, down by 11.5 percent, and the retail sales in rural areas stood at 2,291.1 billion yuan, down by 10.9 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the income of catering was 1,460.9 billion yuan, down by 32.8 percent; and the retail sales of goods were 15,764.8 billion yuan, down by 8.7 percent. The retail sales of goods for basic living and medical supplies grew fast. The grain, oil and food, beverages and traditional chinese and western medicines by businesses above the designated size grew by 12.9 percent, 10.5 percent and 5.8 percent respectively, 0.3 percentage point, 6.4 percentage points and 2.9 percentage points higher than the growth in the first quarter. Upgraded consumer goods grew fast. The retail sales of sports and recreational articles and that of telecommunication equipments by businesses above the designated size grew by 6.1 percent and 5.8 percent respectively, despite a decline of 5.1 percent and 3.6 percent in the first quarter. The online retail sales reached 5,150.1 billion yuan, growing by 7.3 percent year on year, while that fell by 0.8 percent in the first quarter. Specifically, the online retail sales of physical goods were 4,348.1 billion yuan, up by 14.3 percent, 8.4 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter, accounting for 25.2 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods, or 1.6 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter.

 

5. The Decline of Investment in Fixed Assets Narrowed Remarkably and the Investment in High-tech Industries and Social Sector Picked up.

 

In the first half, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) reached 28,160.3 billion yuan, down by 3.1 percent year on year, the decline of which narrowed by 3.2 percentage points compared with that in the first five months, or 13.0 percentage points compared with that in the first quarter. Specifically, the investment in infrastructure was down by 2.7 percent and that in manufacturing down by 11.7 percent, the decline of which narrowed by 17.0 percentage points and 13.5 percentage points respectively compared with that in the first quarter; real estate development went up by 1.9 percent and down by 7.7 percent in the first quarter. The floor space of commercial buildings sold reached 694.04 million square meters, down by 8.4 percent, and the total sales of commercial buildings were 6,689.5 billion yuan, down by 5.4 percent, 17.9 percentage points and 19.3 percentage points slower than the decline in the first quarter respectively. By industries, the investment in the primary industry grew by 3.8 percent despite a decline of 13.8 percent in the first quarter; that in the secondary industry went down by 8.3 percent and that in the tertiary industry down by 1.0 percent, 13.6 percentage points and 12.5 percentage points less than the decline in the first quarter respectively. Private investment reached 15,786.7 billion yuan, down by 7.3 percent, 11.5 percentage points slower than the decline in the first quarter. The investment in high-tech industries went up by 6.3 percent, while that in the first quarter went down by 12.1 percent; specifically, the investment in high-tech manufacturing industries and high-tech services went up by 5.8 percent and 7.2 percent respectively. In terms of high-tech manufacturing, the investment in pharmaceutical manufacturing and the manufacturing of computers and office devices grew by 13.6 percent and 8.2 percent respectively. In terms of high-tech services, the investment in services for e-commerce services and commercialization of scientific and technological research findings grew by 32.0 percent and 21.8 percent respectively. The investment in social sector increased by 5.3 percent, while that declined by 8.8 percent in the first quarter. Specifically, the investment in health sector and education sector grew by 15.2 percent and 10.8 percent respectively, despite a decline of 0.9 percent and 4.0 percent in the first quarter. In June, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) grew by 5.91 percent month on month.

 

6. Imports and Exports Exceeded Expectation and the Trade Structure Continued to Optimize.

 

In the first half, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 14,237.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.2 percent, 3.3 percentage points slower than the decline in the first quarter; specifically, that in the second quarter dropped by 0.2 percent, and that in the first quarter dropped by 6.5 percent. The total value of exports was 7,713.4 billion yuan, down by 3.0 percent; the total value of imports was 6,524.5 billion yuan, down by 3.3 percent. The trade balance was 1,188.9 billion yuan in surplus. The trade structure continued to optimize. In the first half, the import and export of general trade accounted for 60.1 percent of the total value of the imports and exports, an increase of 0.4 percentage point compared with that in the same period last year. The exports of mechanical and electronic products accounted for 58.6 percent of the total value of exports, an increase of 0.5 percentage point compared with the same period last year. In June, the total value of imports and exports was 2,697.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1 percent. The total value of exports was 1,513.1 billion yuan, up by 4.3 percent, and the total value of imports was 1,184.2 billion yuan, up by 6.2 percent. In the first half, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 5,425.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.9 percent, 5.4 percentage points slower than the decline in the first quarter. In June, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above the designated size shifted from a year-on-year decline of 1.4 percent in May to a growth of 2.6 percent.

 

7. Consumer Price Rose Mildly and Producer Prices for Industrial Products Declined Year on Year.

 

In the first half, the consumer price went up by 3.8 percent year on year, 1.1 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. Specifically, the price went up by 3.6 percent in urban areas and up by 4.7 percent in  rural areas. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol went up by 12.2 percent year on year; clothing down by 0.1 percent; housing down by 0.1 percent; articles and services for daily use up by 0.1 percent; transportation and communication down by 3.2 percent; education, culture and recreation up by 2.0 percent; medical services and health care up by 2.1 percent; other articles and services up by 5.0 percent. In terms of food, tobacco and alcohol prices, prices for grain went up by 1.0 percent, fresh vegetables up by 3.4 percent; pork up by 104.3 percent, 18.2 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. Core CPI excluding the price of food and energy went up by 1.2 percent. In June, the consumer price went up by 2.5 percent year on year, and down by 0.1 percent month on month.

 

In the first half, the producer prices for industrial products went down by 1.9 percent year on year. The figure in June dropped by 3.0 percent year on year, or up by 0.4 percent month on month. In the first half, the purchasing prices for industrial producers went down by 2.6 percent year on year. The figure in June dropped by 4.4 percent year on year and up by 0.4 percent month on month.

 

8The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate Declined Slightly and the Employment Was Generally Stable.

 

In the first half, the newly increased employed people in urban areas totaled 5.64 million, accounting for 62.7 percent of the whole-year target. In June, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.7 percent, 0.2 percentage point lower than that in May. Specifically, the surveyed unemployment rate of population aged from 25 to 59 was 5.2 percent, 0.5 percentage point lower than that of the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas, or 0.2 percentage point lower than that in May. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.8 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than that in the previous month. The employees of enterprises worked averagely 46.8 hours per week. By the end of the second quarter, the number of rural migrant workers reached 177.52 million.

 

9. The Decline of Residents’ Real Income Narrowed and Urban-Rural Per Capita Disposable Income Ratio Dropped.

 

In the first half, the nationwide per capita disposable income of residents was 15,666 yuan, a nominal growth of 2.4 percent year on year, 1.6 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter, or a real decrease of 1.3 percent after deducting price factors, a decrease of which narrowed by 2.6 percentage points. In terms of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban households was 21,655 yuan, a nominal growth of 1.5 percent, or a real decrease of 2.0 percent. The per capita disposable income of rural households was 8,069 yuan, a nominal growth of 3.7 percent, or a real decrease of 1.0 percent. By sources of income, the nationwide per capita wage income went up by 2.5 percent in nominal terms, net operating income down by 5.1 percent, net property income up by 4.2 percent, and net transfer income up by 8.2 percent. The per capita disposable income of urban households was 2.68 times that of the rural households, 0.06 less than that of the same period last year. The median of the nationwide per capita disposable income was 13,347 yuan, a nominal increase of 0.5 percent year on year.

 

Generally speaking, the national economy overcame the adverse impact of the epidemic in the first half gradually and demonstrated a momentum of restorative growth and gradual recovery, further manifesting its development resilience and vitality. However, we should also be aware that some indicators are still in decline and the losses caused by the epidemic need to be recovered. Given the continuous spread of the epidemic globally, the evolving huge impact of the epidemic on the global economy and the noticeably mounting external risks and challenges, the national economic recovery was still under pressure. At the next stage, we should take the Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era as the guideline, coordinate efforts to advance routine epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, stay goal-guided and problem-oriented, gather strength and strategize moves, recognize, seek and respond to changes, focus on key areas, address inadequacies and shore up weaknesses. We must make solid efforts to stabilize employment, finance, foreign trade, foreign investment, domestic investment, and market expectations, comprehensively implement the tasks to safeguard residential employment, people’s livelihood, market entities, food and energy security, stability of industrial and supply chains and operations at grassroots levels, and ensure the implementation of decisions and arrangements so as to win the battle against poverty, achieve the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all aspects and promote the long-term and stable growth of the economy.

 

Notes:

 

1. The growth rates of gross domestic product, value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are real growth by using comparable prices. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.

 

2. According to the auto-revision function of the seasonal adjustment model, revisions were made to quarter-on-quarter growth of GDP and to month-on-month changes of the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households), and total retail sales of consumer goods. The revised figures, quarter-on-quarter GDP data for the second quarter of 2020 and other indicators for June 2020 are as follows:

 

The quarter-on-quarter growth of GDP in 2019 and the first quarter, second quarter of 2020 were 2.0 percent, 1.2 percent, 1.4 percent, 1.3 percent, -10.0 percent and 11.5 percent respectively.

 

Month-on-Month Changes

 

 

Value Added of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size

(%)

Investment in Fixed  Assets (Excluding Rural Households)

(%)

Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods

(%)

 

 

 

 

June 2019

0.67

0.45

0.57

July 2019

0.33

0.46

0.64

August 2019

0.42

0.42

0.70

September 2019

0.69

0.48

0.82

October 2019

0.39

0.40

0.63

November 2019

0.76

0.49

0.93

December 2019

0.61

0.47

0.80

January 2020

-2.90

-4.25

-10.85

February 2020

-23.19

-19.55

0.92

March 2020

29.60

6.21

0.92

April 2020

2.19

6.17

0.94

May 2020

1.53

5.96

0.85

June 2020

1.30

5.91

1.34

 

 

 

 

 

3. Industrial enterprises above the designated size are industrial enterprises with annual revenue from principle business over 20 million yuan.

 

As industrial enterprises above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year-on-year growth rates like that of products output, are as consistent as possible with the current period and different from the coverage of the data published last year. The main reasons are as follows: First, the statistical units change. Every year, some enterprises are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises are removed from the survey because of downsizing. Besides, enterprises that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, cancelled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact. Second, duplicated outputs across regions of enterprise groups have been removed based on the ad hoc surveys since duplication was found in the products output of some enterprise groups.

 

4. The Index of Services Production is the change of production in the reporting period compared to the base period with the price factors deducted.

 

5. The scope of the total retail sales of consumer goods include all legal entities, establishments and self-employed individuals involved in retail trades or providing catering services. Specifically, businesses above the designated size include wholesale enterprises (businesses), retail enterprises (businesses) and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses) with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan, 5 million yuan and 2 million yuan respectively.

 

As the wholesale, retail, and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses) above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year-on-year growth rates like that of the retail sales of consumer goods by businesses above the designated size is consistent with the current period and different from the coverage of data published last year. The main reasons are: some enterprises (businesses) are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises (businesses) are removed from the survey because of downsizing every year. Besides, enterprises (businesses) that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, cancelled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact.

 

Online retail sales refer to the retail sales of goods and services realized through internet trading platforms (including self-built websites and third-party platforms). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (e.g. virtual goods and services).

 

The total retail sales of consumer goods include the online retail sales of physical goods, but not the non-physical goods.

 

Data of the total retail sales of consumer goods in 2019 are revised according to the results of the fourth national economic census. The monthly growth rate of 2020 is calculated on a comparable basis.

 

6. Data of investment in fixed assets of the same period last year are revised according to the results of the fourth national economic census, the statistical law enforcement and inspection, and regulations on statistical survey programs. The growth rates are calculated on a comparable basis.

 

7. Employed people refer to people aged 16 and above who have the ability to work and engage in gainful employment for remuneration payment or business income.

 

8. The median of the nationwide per capita disposable income of residents refers to the per capita disposable income of households which lies in the middle of all surveyed households ranked from low to high on the basis of per capita disposable income level.

 

9. Data of imports and exports are from the General Administration of Customs. And data of newly increased employed people in urban areas are from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security.

 

10. Due to the round-off reasons, the subentries may not add up to the aggregate totals.

 

In case of any differences between English translation and the original Chinese text, the Chinese edition shall prevail.

 

Annex
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