Purchasing Managers Index for January 2020
Department of Service Statistics of NBS
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing(CFLP)
As of January 20, 2020, the survey results of purchasing managers show that in January, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.0 percent, non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.1 percent, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 53.0 percent.
1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
In January 2020, China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.0 percent, slightly fell 0.2 percentage point over that in the previous month.
In the view of enterprise scale, the PMI of large-sized enterprise was 50.4 percent, down by 0.2 percent point from last month; that of medium-sized enterprises was 50.1 percent, 1.3 percentage points of lower than last month. The PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises were all above the threshold. The PMI of small-sized enterprises was 48.6 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than last month and stayed below the threshold.
Among the five sub-indices composing PMI, the production index and new orders index were higher than the threshold, while raw materials inventory index, employment index and supplier distribution time index were lower than the threshold.
Production index was 51.3 percent, down by 1.9 percentage points from last month, stayed above the threshold, indicating that the pace of manufacturing production expansion has slowed down.
New orders index was 51.4 percent, up by 0.2 percentage point from last month, and was above the threshold for three consecutive months, indicating that the manufacturing market demand continued to grow.
Main raw materials inventory index was 47.1 percent, slightly lower 0.1 percentage point than last month, which was below the threshold, indicating that the main raw material inventory of manufacturing industry decreased.
The employment index was 47.5 percent, rose by 0.2 percentage point than last month, while stayed below the threshold, indicating that the employment of manufacturing enterprises has decreased.
Supplier distribution time index was 49.9 percent, decreased by 1.2 percentage points than last month, which was slightly lower than the threshold, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in manufacturing industry has slowed down.
| China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||
| Unit: % | ||||||
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| PMI |
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| Production Index | New Orders Index | Main Raw Materials Inventory Index | Employed Person Index | Supplier Delivery Time Index | ||
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| 2019-January | 49.5 | 50.9 | 49.6 | 48.1 | 47.8 | 50.1 |
| February | 49.2 | 49.5 | 50.6 | 46.3 | 47.5 | 49.8 |
| March | 50.5 | 52.7 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 47.6 | 50.2 |
| April | 50.1 | 52.1 | 51.4 | 47.2 | 47.2 | 49.9 |
| May | 49.4 | 51.7 | 49.8 | 47.4 | 47.0 | 50.9 |
| June | 49.4 | 51.3 | 49.6 | 48.2 | 46.9 | 50.2 |
| July | 49.7 | 52.1 | 49.8 | 48.0 | 47.1 | 50.1 |
| August | 49.5 | 51.9 | 49.7 | 47.5 | 46.9 | 50.3 |
| September | 49.8 | 52.3 | 50.5 | 47.6 | 47.0 | 50.5 |
| October | 49.3 | 50.8 | 49.6 | 47.4 | 47.3 | 50.1 |
| November | 50.2 | 52.6 | 51.3 | 47.8 | 47.3 | 50.5 |
| December | 50.2 | 53.2 | 51.2 | 47.2 | 47.3 | 51.1 |
| 2020-January | 50.0 | 51.3 | 51.4 | 47.1 | 47.5 | 49.9 |
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| Related Indicators of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||||
| Unit: % | ||||||||
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| New Export Orders Index | Import Index | Purchase Quantity Index | Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index | Producer Price Index | Finished Goods Inventory Index | Open Orders Index | Production And Business Activities Expectation Index |
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| 2019-January | 46.9 | 47.1 | 49.1 | 46.3 | 44.5 | 47.1 | 43.7 | 52.5 |
| February | 45.2 | 44.8 | 48.3 | 51.9 | 48.5 | 46.4 | 43.6 | 56.2 |
| March | 47.1 | 48.7 | 51.2 | 53.5 | 51.4 | 47.0 | 46.4 | 56.8 |
| April | 49.2 | 49.7 | 51.1 | 53.1 | 52.0 | 46.5 | 44.0 | 56.5 |
| May | 46.5 | 47.1 | 50.5 | 51.8 | 49.0 | 48.1 | 44.3 | 54.5 |
| June | 46.3 | 46.8 | 49.7 | 49.0 | 45.4 | 48.1 | 44.5 | 53.4 |
| July | 46.9 | 47.4 | 50.4 | 50.7 | 46.9 | 47.0 | 44.7 | 53.6 |
| August | 47.2 | 46.7 | 49.3 | 48.6 | 46.7 | 47.8 | 44.8 | 53.3 |
| September | 48.2 | 47.1 | 50.4 | 52.2 | 49.9 | 47.1 | 44.7 | 54.4 |
| October | 47.0 | 46.9 | 49.8 | 50.4 | 48.0 | 46.7 | 44.9 | 54.2 |
| November | 48.8 | 49.8 | 51.0 | 49.0 | 47.3 | 46.4 | 44.9 | 54.9 |
| December | 50.3 | 49.9 | 51.3 | 51.8 | 49.2 | 45.6 | 45.0 | 54.4 |
| 2020-January | 48.7 | 49.0 | 51.6 | 53.8 | 49.0 | 46.0 | 46.3 | 57.9 |
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2. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers index
In January 2020, China’s non-manufacturing business activities index was 54.1 percent, rose by 0.6 percentage point than the previous month, indicating that the overall of non-manufacturing industry has maintained the expansion trend.
In the view of different industries, non-manufacturing business activity index of service industry was 53.1 percent, higher 0.1 percentage point than last month. Of which, the indices of postal industry, telecommunication, broadcast, television and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, and insurance industry were above 57.0 percent, and the total business volume was growing rapidly; the business activity index of road transport industry, and real estate industry were in the contraction range. The construction business activity index was 59.7 percent, up by 3.0 percentage points from the previous month, which was in a higher boom range.
The new orders index was 50.6 percent, rose by 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, stayed above the threshold, indicating that the market demands in non-manufacturing industry has increased. In terms of industry, the new order index of service industry was 50.0 percent, unchanged with last month; that of construction industry was 53.8 percent, rose by 0.9 percentage point from last month.
The input price index was 53.3 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher than that of last month, which was above the threshold, indicating that the overall input price used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities was increasing. In terms of industry, the service industry input price index was 52.8 percent, 0.5 percentage point higher than last month; the construction industry input price index was 56.1 percent, 3.1 percentage points higher than last month.
The sales price index was 50.5 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than last month, still was above the threshold, indicating that the overall growth of non-manufacturing sales price increased slightly month-on-month. In terms of industry, the sales price index of service industry was 50.2 percent, up by 0.3 percentage point from last month; that of construction industry was 52.2 percent, unchanged with last month.
The employment index was 48.6 percent, up by 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, which was below the threshold. In terms of industry, the employment index of service industry was 47.4 percent, down by 0.5 percentage point from last month; that of construction industry was 55.3 percent, rose by 4.6 percentage points from last month.
Business activities expectation index was 59.6 percent, higher 0.5 percentage point than last month, continued staying in the high boom zone, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises were more confident in the future market development. In terms of industry, the business activities expectation index in service industry was 58.7 percent, 0.4 percentage point lower than last month; that of construction industry was 64.4 percent, 5.2 percentage points higher than last month.
| Main Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||
| Unit: % | ||||||
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| Non-manufacturing PMI | New Orders Index | Input Price Index | Sales Price Index | Employment Index | Business Activities Expectation Index |
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| 2019-January | 54.7 | 51.0 | 52.0 | 49.8 | 48.6 | 59.6 |
| February | 54.3 | 50.7 | 52.7 | 50.1 | 48.6 | 61.5 |
| March | 54.8 | 52.5 | 52.5 | 51.0 | 48.7 | 61.1 |
| April | 54.3 | 50.8 | 53.0 | 50.5 | 48.7 | 60.3 |
| May | 54.3 | 50.3 | 52.2 | 49.9 | 48.3 | 60.2 |
| June | 54.2 | 51.5 | 51.5 | 49.7 | 48.2 | 60.6 |
| July | 53.7 | 50.4 | 52.9 | 50.6 | 48.7 | 59.8 |
| August | 53.8 | 50.1 | 50.8 | 49.1 | 48.9 | 60.4 |
| September | 53.7 | 50.5 | 52.8 | 50.0 | 48.2 | 59.7 |
| October | 52.8 | 49.4 | 51.3 | 48.9 | 48.2 | 60.7 |
| November | 54.4 | 51.3 | 53.2 | 51.3 | 49.0 | 61.0 |
| December | 53.5 | 50.4 | 52.4 | 50.3 | 48.3 | 59.1 |
| 2020-January | 54.1 | 50.6 | 53.3 | 50.5 | 48.6 | 59.6 |
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| Other Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||
| Unit: % | ||||
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| Foreign New Orders Index | Unfilled Orders Index | Stock Index | Supplier Delivery Time Index |
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| 2019-January | 49.5 | 44.0 | 47.6 | 51.4 |
| February | 51.6 | 44.9 | 47.1 | 51.4 |
| March | 49.9 | 45.0 | 47.1 | 51.5 |
| April | 49.2 | 44.2 | 46.3 | 51.5 |
| May | 47.9 | 44.4 | 46.6 | 51.7 |
| June | 48.5 | 44.4 | 46.0 | 51.4 |
| July | 48.4 | 44.4 | 45.5 | 52.0 |
| August | 50.3 | 44.1 | 47.0 | 52.1 |
| September | 47.3 | 43.9 | 46.4 | 51.9 |
| October | 48.1 | 44.0 | 46.7 | 51.8 |
| November | 48.8 | 44.6 | 47.4 | 52.1 |
| December | 47.8 | 44.5 | 47.2 | 52.2 |
| 2020-January | 48.4 | 43.6 | 47.2 | 52.1 |
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3. Composite PMI Output Index
In January 2020, the comprehensive PMI output index was 53.0 percent, 0.4 percentage point lower than that of last month, and stayed above the threshold, indicating that the overall expansion of production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises has slowed down.
Annotations:
1. Explanatory Notes
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in recession.
2.Statistical Coverage
The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing industry in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2017), and 3000 samples, as well as 37 divisions of non-manufacturing industry, and 4000 samples.
3. Survey Methods
PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.
The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.
4. Calculation Methods
(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indices.
The indicator system of manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indices such as production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. The indicator system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indices such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. Sub-indices adopt diffusion index calculation method, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.
(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI.
Manufacturing PMI was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employees index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.
(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index.
Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP. This index will be released since February 2018.
5. Seasonal adjustment
The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.