Purchasing Managers Index for October 2019
National Bureau of Statistics of China2019-11-01 10:00




Department of Service Statistics of NBS

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing(CFLP)

 

1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

 

In October 2019, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 49.3 percent, fell by 0.5 percent point from the previous month.

 

 

In the view of enterprise scale, the PMI of large-sized enterprise was 49.9 percent, down by 0.9 percent point from last month; that of medium-sized enterprises was 49.0 percent, 0.4 percentage point of higher than last month; and that of small-sized enterprises was 47.9 percent, 0.9 percentage point lower than last month.

 

Among the five sub-indices composing PMI, the production index and supplier distribution time index were higher than the threshold, while, the new orders index, main raw materials inventory index and employment index were lower than the threshold.

 

Production index was 50.8 percent, down by 1.5 percent points from last month, still higher than the threshold, indicating that the manufacturing industry continued to expand and the pace of expansion slowed down.

 

New orders index was 49.6 percent, down by 0.9 percent point from last month, and declined below the threshold, indicating that the market demand of manufacturing industry has declined.

 

Main raw materials inventory index was 47.6 percent, slightly higher 0.1 percent point than last month, and was below the threshold, indicating that the decline of main raw materials inventory in manufacturing industry has narrowed slightly.

 

The employment index was 47.3 percent, up by 0.3 percentage point from last month, below the threshold, indicating that the decline in the employment volume of manufacturing enterprises has narrowed.

 

Supplier distribution time index was 50.1 percent, fell by 0.4 percent point than last month, while still was above the threshold slightly, indicating that the distribution time of manufacturing raw materials supplier got faster than last month.

 

China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

PMI

 

Production Index

New Orders Index

Main Raw Materials Inventory Index

Employed Person Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2018- October

50.2

52.0

50.8

47.2

48.1

49.5

November

50.0

51.9

50.4

47.4

48.3

50.3

December

49.4

50.8

49.7

47.1

48.0

50.4

2019-January

49.5

50.9

49.6

48.1

47.8

50.1

February

49.2

49.5

50.6

46.3

47.5

49.8

March

50.5

52.7

51.6

48.4

47.6

50.2

April

50.1

52.1

51.4

47.2

47.2

49.9

May

49.4

51.7

49.8

47.4

47.0

50.9

June

49.4

51.3

49.6

48.2

46.9

50.2

July

49.7

52.1

49.8

48.0

47.1

50.1

August

49.5

51.9

49.7

47.5

46.9

50.3

September

49.8

52.3

50.5

47.6

47.0

50.5

October

49.3

50.8

49.6

47.4

47.3

50.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Related Indicators of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

New Export Orders Index

Import Index

Purchase Quantity Index

Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index

Producer Price Index

Finished Goods Inventory Index

Open Orders Index

Production And Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2018- October

46.9

47.6

51.0

58.0

52.0

47.1

44.3

56.4

November

47.0

47.1

50.8

50.3

46.4

48.6

44.3

54.2

December

46.6

45.9

49.8

44.8

43.3

48.2

44.1

52.7

2019-January

46.9

47.1

49.1

46.3

44.5

47.1

43.7

52.5

February

45.2

44.8

48.3

51.9

48.5

46.4

43.6

56.2

March

47.1

48.7

51.2

53.5

51.4

47.0

46.4

56.8

April

49.2

49.7

51.1

53.1

52.0

46.5

44.0

56.5

May

46.5

47.1

50.5

51.8

49.0

48.1

44.3

54.5

June

46.3

46.8

49.7

49.0

45.4

48.1

44.5

53.4

July

46.9

47.4

50.4

50.7

46.9

47.0

44.7

53.6

August

47.2

46.7

49.3

48.6

46.7

47.8

44.8

53.3

September

48.2

47.1

50.4

52.2

49.9

47.1

44.7

54.4

October

47.0

46.9

49.8

50.4

48.0

46.7

44.9

54.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers index

 

In October 2019, China’s non-manufacturing business activities index was 52.8 percent, lower 0.9 percent point than the previous month, indicating that the overall of non-manufacturing industry continued to expand and the growth rate slowed down.

 

 

In the view of different industries,

non-manufacturing business activity index of service industry was 51.4 percent, lower 1.6 percent points than last month, and prosperity of the service industry was declined. Of which, the indices of air transport, postal, Internet, software and information technology services, stayed in the higher boom zone of 55.0 percent above, and the total business volume continued to expand rapidly. While that of whole sale, capital market services and real estate positioned in the contraction zone. That of construction was 60.4 percent, rose by 2.8 percentage points than last month and returned to the high boom zone.

 

New orders index was 49.4 percent, lower 1.1 percent points from last month and stayed below the threshold, indicating that the orders in non-manufacturing market has decreased. In terms of different industries, new orders index of service industry was 48.4 percent, lower 1.3 percent points than last month. Of which, construction industry was 54.8 percent, lower 0.3 percent point than the previous month.

 

Input price index was 51.3 percent, down by 1.5 percent points from last month and stayed below the threshold, indicating that the overall level of price increase of inputs used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities has been narrowed. In terms of different industries, input price index of service industry was 50.9 percent, down by 1.9 percent points from last month. The input price index of construction industry was 53.1 percent, up by 0.6 percent point from the previous month.

 

Sales price index was 48.9 percent, down by 1.1 percent points from the previous month, fell below the threshold, indicating that the overall level of non-manufacturing sales price decreased month on month. In terms of different industries, the sales price index of service industry was 48.4 percent, down by 1.4 percent points from last month, while the sales price index of construction industry was 52.2 percent, higher 0.8 percent point than last month.

 

Employment index was 48.2 percent, kept the same level with the previous month, and was below the threshold, indicating that the employment of non-manufacturing enterprises demands decreased. In terms of different industries, the employment index of service industry was 47.6 percent, slightly down by 0.1 percent point from last month, while that of construction industry was 51.8 percent, up by 0.7 percent point from last month.

 

Business activities expectation index was 60.7 percent, higher 1.0 percent point than last month, climbed to high-level boom zone, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises have more confidence in future market development. In terms of different industries, the business activities expectation index of service industry was 60.3 percent, higher 1.0 percent point than last month. The business activities expectation index of construction industry was 63.2 percent, up by 1.2 percent points from the previous month.

 

Main Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

Non-manufacturing

PMI

New Orders Index

Input Price Index

Sales Price Index

Employment Index

Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2018- October

53.9

50.1

54.9

51.2

48.9

60.6

November

53.4

50.1

50.8

49.4

48.7

60.9

December

53.8

50.4

50.1

47.6

48.5

60.8

2019-January

54.7

51.0

52.0

49.8

48.6

59.6

February

54.3

50.7

52.7

50.1

48.6

61.5

March

54.8

52.5

52.5

51.0

48.7

61.1

April

54.3

50.8

53.0

50.5

48.7

60.3

May

54.3

50.3

52.2

49.9

48.3

60.2

June

54.2

51.5

51.5

49.7

48.2

60.6

July

53.7

50.4

52.9

50.6

48.7

59.8

August

53.8

50.1

50.8

49.1

48.9

60.4

September

53.7

50.5

52.8

50.0

48.2

59.7

October

52.8

49.4

51.3

48.9

48.2

60.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

Foreign New Orders Index

Unfilled Orders Index

Stock Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

 

 

 

 

 

2018- October

47.8

43.8

47.4

51.5

November

50.1

43.7

46.7

51.4

December

49.0

43.7

46.6

51.9

2019-January

49.5

44.0

47.6

51.4

February

51.6

44.9

47.1

51.4

March

49.9

45.0

47.1

51.5

April

49.2

44.2

46.3

51.5

May

47.9

44.4

46.6

51.7

June

48.5

44.4

46.0

51.4

July

48.4

44.4

45.5

52.0

August

50.3

44.1

47.0

52.1

September

47.3

43.9

46.4

51.9

October

48.1

44.0

46.7

51.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Composite PMI Output Index

 

In October 2019, China's Composite PMI Output Index was 52.0 percent, fell by 1.1 percent points from the previous month, indicating that the current production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continue to expand in general.

 

 

Annotations:

 

1. Explanatory Notes

 

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in recession.

 

2.Statistical Coverage

 

The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing industry in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2011), and 3000 samples, as well as 37 divisions of non-manufacturing industry, and 4000 samples.

 

3. Survey Methods

 

PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.

 

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

 

4. Calculation Methods

 

(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indices.

 

The indicator system of manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indices such as production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. The indicator system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indices such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. Sub-indices adopt diffusion index calculation method, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.

 

(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI.

 

Manufacturing PMI was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employees index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.

 

(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index. 

 

Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP. This index will be released since February 2018.

 

5. Seasonal adjustment

 

The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.

 

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