National Economy Performed within the Reasonable Range in July

National Bureau of Statistics of China

14 August 2019

In July, in the face of mounting risks and challenges both at home and abroad, under the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, all regions and departments implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, stuck to the general working guideline of making progress while maintaining stability, adhered to the new development philosophy, continued to focus on the supply-side structural reform, and insisted on promoting high-quality development of the economy. As a result, the overall economy continued to perform within the reasonable range and sustained generally stable growth while making further progress.

1. The Service Sector Grew Fast and the Modern Service Industries Developed Soundly.

In July, the Index of Services Production increased by 6.3 percent year on year, 0.8 percentage point lower than that of last month. In the first seven months, the Index of Services Production grew by 7.1 percent, 0.2 percentage point lower than that of the first six months. In July, the Index of Services Production for information transmission, software and information technology services, and leasing and business services grew by 17.2 percent and 7.3 percent respectively, 10.9 percentage points and 1.0 percentage point higher than the growth of the Index of Services Production. The Business Activity Index for services was 52.9 percent, 0.5 percentage point lower than that of last month, continuing to stay above the 50-point mark separating growth from contraction. The Business Activity Index for sectors like railway transport, air transport, post, telecommunication, broadcast, television and satellite transmission services and culture, sports and entertainment stayed within the expansion range, with the index higher than 56.0 percent. The Business Activity Expectation Index stood at 59.1 percent, staying at a high level.

2. The Industrial Production Witnessed Slowness amid Stability and High-tech Manufacturing Grew Fast.

In July, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 4.8 percent year on year, 1.5 percentage points lower than that of last month. In the first seven months, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 5.8 percent, 0.2 percentage point lower than that of the first six months. An analysis by types of ownership showed that, in July, the value added of the state holding enterprises went up by 3.7 percent year on year; share-holding enterprises up by 6.1 percent; and enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan down by 0.2 percent. In terms of sectors, the value added of the mining increased by 6.6 percent year on year, the manufacturing grew by 4.5 percent and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water grew by 6.9 percent. The value added of high-tech manufacturing grew by 6.6 percent, 1.8 percentage points higher than that of the industrial enterprises above the designated size. The production of microcomputer equipments and solar cells grew by 14.5 percent and 34.3 percent respectively. In July, of the sub-indexes of the Manufacturing PMI, the Production Index and the Supplier Delivery Time Index reached 52.1 percent and 50.1 percent, both staying above the threshold.

3. The Market Sales Continued to Expand and the Online Retail Sales Grew Fast.

In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,307.3 billion yuan, a year on year growth of 7.6 percent, 2.2 percentage points lower than that of last month. Specifically, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles increased by 8.8 percent, basically the same level as that of last month. In the first seven months, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 22,828.3 billion yuan, a year on year growth of 8.3 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than that of the first six months. Analyzed by different areas, in July, the retail sales in urban areas reached 2,835.4 billion yuan, up by 7.4 percent year on year, and the retail sales in rural areas stood at 471.9 billion yuan, up by 8.6 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the income of the catering was 365.8 billion yuan, up by 9.4 percent; and the retail sales of goods were 2,941.5 billion yuan, up by 7.4 percent. The retail sales of cosmetics, beverages, traditional Chinese and Western medicine, articles for daily use and cultural and office supplies by businesses above the designated size grew by 9.4 percent, 9.7 percent, 11.6 percent, 13.0 percent and 14.5 percent respectively, or 1.8 percentage points, 2.1 percentage points, 4.0 percentage points, 5.4 percentage points and 6.9 percentage points higher than the total retail sales of consumer goods.

In the first seven months, the online retail sales reached 5,597.2 billion yuan, up by 16.8 percent year on year, or 1.0 percentage point lower than that of the first six months. Of the total, the online retail sales of physical goods stood at 4,423.3 billion yuan, up by 20.9 percent, accounting for 19.4 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods, 2.1 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

4. The Investment Grew Steadily and the Investment in Manufacturing and High-tech Industries Witnessed Sound Growth.

In the first seven months, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 34,889.2 billion yuan, a year on year growth of 5.7 percent, or 0.1 percentage point lower than that of the first six months. Specifically, private investment reached 21,026.7 billion yuan, up by 5.4 percent. The investment in the primary industry went down by 1.2 percent; that in the secondary industry grew by 3.4 percent, among which, the investment in manufacturing grew by 3.3 percent, 0.3 percentage point higher than that of the first six months, achieving moderate growth for consecutive three months; that in the tertiary industry grew by 7.0 percent, among which, the investment in infrastructure was up by 3.8 percent. The investment in high-tech industries grew fast, specifically, that in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services went up by 11.1 percent and 11.9 percent year on year respectively, or 5.4 percentage points and 6.2 percentage points higher than that of the total investment. In the first seven months, the total investment in real estate development was 7,284.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 10.6 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than that of the first six months. The floor space of commercial buildings sold reached 887.83 million square meters, down by 1.3 percent year on year, and the total sales of commercial buildings were 8,316.2 billion yuan, up by 6.2 percent.

5. The Employment was Generally Stable and the Surveyed Unemployment Rate Rose Slightly.

In the first seven months, the newly increased employed people in urban areas numbered 8.67 million, accounting for 79 percent of the whole-year target. In July, the surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.3 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than that of last month. Specifically, the surveyed unemployed rate for population aged from 25 to 59 was 4.6 percent, the same as that of last month. The surveyed urban unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.2 percent. The employees of enterprises worked averagely 46.5 hours per week, an increase of 0.5 hour year on year.

6. The Consumer Price Grew Mildly and the Producer Prices for Industrial Products Declined Slightly.

In July, the consumer price went up by 2.8 percent year on year, 0.1 percentage point higher than that of last month, or up by 0.4 percent month on month. Grouped by commodity categories, in July, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol went up by 6.7 percent year on year; clothing up by 1.8 percent; housing up by 1.5 percent; articles and services for daily use up by 0.8 percent; transport and communication down by 2.1 percent; education, culture and recreation up by 2.3 percent; medical services and health care up by 2.6 percent; other articles and services up by 3.4 percent. Core CPI excluding the prices for food and energy went up by 1.6 percent, the same as that of last month. For the first seven months, the consumer price went up by 2.3 percent year on year.

In July, the producer prices for industrial products went down by 0.3 percent year on year, or down by 0.2 percent month on month. The purchasing prices for industrial producers went down by 0.6 percent year on year, or down by 0.2 percent month on month. For the first seven months, the producer prices for industrial products went up by 0.2 percent year on year and the purchasing prices for industrial producers remained the same as that of the same period last year.

7. The Growth of Export Accelerated and the Trade Structure Continued to be Optimized.

In July, the total value of imports and exports was 2,738.2 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7 percent year on year, 2.6 percentage points higher than that of last month. Specifically, the total value of exports was 1,524.2 billion yuan, up by 10.3 percent, 4.3 percentage points higher than that of last month; the total value of imports was 1,214.0 billion yuan, up by 0.4 percent, while that for last month was down by 0.4 percent. The trade balance was 310.3 billion yuan in surplus. In the first seven months, the total value of imports and exports was 17,408.3 billion yuan, up by 4.2 percent. Specifically, the value of exports was 9,475.8 billion yuan, up by 6.7 percent; the value of imports was 7,932.5 billion yuan, up by 1.3 percent. The structure for foreign trade continued to be optimized. In the first seven months, the value of general trade grew by 5.7 percent, accounting for 59.8 percent of the total value of imports and exports, 0.8 percentage point higher than that of the same period last year. The total value of imports and exports by private enterprises went up by 11.8 percent, accounting for 42 percent of the total value of imports and exports, or 2.9 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. In the first seven months, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 6,886.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.1 percent.

8. Solid Progress was Made in the Supply-side Structural Reform and the Asset-Liability Ratio of Industrial Enterprises Dropped.

By the end of June, the asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 57.0 percent, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3 percentage point. The commercial housing inventory was reduced. By the end of July, the floor space of commercial buildings for sale was 498.76 million square meters, down by 8.4 percent year on year, or 2.86 million square meters less compared with that by the end of June. Unit cost for enterprise was lowered compared with that at the beginning of the year. Investment in weak areas went up. In the first seven months, the investment in ecological protection and treatment of environmental pollution, and education went up by 41.0 percent and 18.5 percent year on year respectively, or 35.3 percentage points and 12.8 percentage points higher than that of total investment.

In the first six months, the business revenue of service enterprises above the designated size went up by 9.8 percent year on year. Of the total, the business revenue of strategic emerging services, high-tech services and science and technology services went up by 12.1 percent, 11.9 percent and 11.4 percent respectively, or 2.3 percentage points, 2.1 percentage points and 1.6 percentage points faster than that of the service enterprises above the designated size. The operating profits of service enterprises above the designated size remained the same level as that of the same period last year. In the first six months, the business revenue of industrial enterprises above the designated size went up by 4.7 percent year on year, and the profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size went down by 2.4 percent year on year. In the first six months, the profit rate of the business revenue of the industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5.86 percent, 0.14 percentage point higher than that in the first five months of this year.

Generally speaking, the national economy continued to perform within the reasonable range, sustaining the momentum of progress in overall stability in July. Meanwhile, we must be aware that given the complicated and grave external environment and the mounting downward pressure on the economy at home, the foundation for sustainable and healthy development of the economy still needs to be consolidated. For the next step, we must follow the general working guideline of making progress while maintaining stability, focus on the supply-side structural reform, continue to apply the new development philosophy and promote high-quality development, advance reform and opening-up, follow the general principle that macro policies should be stable while micro policies should be flexible, and social policies should ensure basic needs, keep in mind both the domestic and international situation, take coordinated steps to stabilize growth, stimulate reform, adjust structure, benefit people’s livelihood, fend off risk and maintain stability, be prepared for potential difficulties, catch the long-term trend, grasp principal contradictions, turn risks into opportunities, focus on running our own affairs well so as to facilitate the sustained and healthy development of the economy.

Notes:

1. The Index of Services Production is the change of production in the reporting period compared to the base period with the price factors deducted.

2. The growth rate of value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are real growth by using comparable prices. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.

3. Industrial enterprises above designated size are industrial enterprises with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan.

As industrial enterprises above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year on year growth rates like that of products output, are as consistent as possible with the current period and different from the coverage of the data published last year. The main reasons are as follows: First, the statistical units change. Every year, some enterprises are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises are removed from the survey because of downsizing. Besides, enterprises that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, cancelled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact. Second, duplicated outputs across regions of enterprise groups have been removed based on the ad hoc surveys since duplication was found in the products output of some enterprise groups.

4. The scope of the total retail sales of consumer goods include all legal entities, establishments and self-employed individuals involved in retail trades or providing catering services. Specifically, businesses above the designated size include wholesale enterprises (businesses), retail enterprises (businesses) and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses) with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan, 5 million yuan and 2 million yuan respectively.

As the wholesale, retail, and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses) above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year on year growth rates like that of the retail sales of consumer goods by businesses above the designated size is consistent with the current period and different from the coverage of data published last year. The main reasons are as follows: First, every year, some enterprises (businesses) are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises (businesses) are removed from the survey because of downsizing. Besides, enterprises (businesses) that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, cancelled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact. Second, as for the monthly data of 2019, the businesses above the designated size by the end of 2018 were reviewed and verified and enterprises (businesses) that failed to meet the threshold were recategorized as below the designated size based on the results from the entities inventory checking of the fourth economic census (from August to December, 2018).

Online retail sales refer to the retail sales of goods and services realized through internet trading platforms (including self-built websites and third-party platforms). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (e.g. virtual goods and services).

The total retail sales of consumer goods include the online retail sales of physical goods, but not the non-physical goods. 

5. The data of investment in fixed assets of the same period last year are revised according to the results of statistical law enforcement and inspection and the results from the entities inventory checking of the fourth economic census. The growth rates are calculated on a comparable basis.

6. Employed people refer to people aged 16 and above who have the ability to work and engage in gainful employment for remuneration payment or business income.

7. Data of newly increased employed people in urban areas are from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security. And data of imports and exports are from the General Administration of Customs.

8. Due to the rounding-off reasons, the subentries July not add up to the aggregate totals.

In case of any differences between English translation and the original Chinese text, the Chinese edition shall prevail.