Purchasing Managers Index for October 2018
National Bureau of Statistics of China2018-10-31 14:47




Department of Service Statistics of NBS

China Federation of Logistics and Purchases (CFLP)

 

1. Manufacturing purchasing managers index

 

In October 2018, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 50.2 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from last month, the manufacturing industry continually located in the expansion interval, while the pace of expansion has slowed down. 

 

 

In view of the sizes of enterprises, the PMI of large-sized enterprises was 51.6 percent, decreased 0.5 percentage point from last month, and continued to maintain its expansion generally; that of medium-sized enterprises and small-sized enterprises were 47.7 percent, 49.8 percent,  which decreased 1.0 percentage point and 0.6 percentage point respectively  from last month, lower than the threshold.  

 

Among the five sub-indices composing PMI, the production index and new orders index were higher than the threshold. The main raw materials inventory index and employed person index and supplier delivery time index were lower than the threshold.

 

Production index was 52.0 percent, decreased 1.0 percentage point from last month, and was   continually located in the expansion interval, indicating that the pace of manufacturing production has slowed down.

 

New orders index was 50.8 percent, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points month-on-month, and was still higher than the threshold, showing that the pace of manufacturing market demand expansion slowed down.

 

Main raw materials inventory index was 47.2 percent, decreased 0.6 percentage point from last month, and was lower than the threshold, indicating that the manufacturing industry’s main raw material inventory continued to decreased.

 

Employed person index was 48.1 percent, decreased 0.2 percentage point from last month, lower than the threshold, indicating that the manufacturing enterprises’ labor employment decreased.

 

Supplier delivery time index was 49.5 percent, decreased 0.2 percentage point from last month, and lower than the threshold, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing raw material suppliers has slow down.

 

China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

PMI

 

Production Index

New Orders Index

Main Raw Materials Inventory Index

Employed Person Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2017- October

51.6

53.4

52.9

48.6

49.0

48.7

November

51.8

54.3

53.6

48.4

48.8

49.5

December

51.6

54.0

53.4

48.0

48.5

49.3

2018-January

51.3

53.5

52.6

48.8

48.3

49.2

February

50.3

50.7

51.0

49.3

48.1

48.4

March

51.5

53.1

53.3

49.6

49.1

50.1

April

51.4

53.1

52.9

49.5

49.0

50.2

May

51.9

54.1

53.8

49.6

49.1

50.1

June

51.5

53.6

53.2

48.8

49.0

50.2

July

51.2

53.0

52.3

48.9

49.2

50.0

August

51.3

53.3

52.2

48.7

49.4

49.6

September

50.8

53.0

52.0

47.8

48.3

49.7

October

50.2

52.0

50.8

47.2

48.1

49.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Related Indicators of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

New Export Orders Index

Import Index

Purchase Quantity Index

Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index

Producer Price Index

Finished Goods Inventory Index

Open Orders Index

Production And Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2017- October

50.1

50.3

53.2

63.4

55.2

46.1

45.6

57.0

November

50.8

51.0

53.5

59.8

53.8

46.1

46.6

57.9

December

51.9

51.2

53.6

62.2

54.4

45.8

46.3

58.7

2018-January

49.5

50.4

52.9

59.7

51.8

47.0

45.3

56.8

February

49.0

49.8

50.8

53.4

49.2

46.7

44.9

58.2

March

51.3

51.3

53.0

53.4

48.9

47.3

46.0

58.7

April

50.7

50.2

52.6

53.0

50.2

47.2

46.2

58.4

May

51.2

50.9

53.0

56.7

53.2

46.1

45.9

58.7

June

49.8

50.0

52.8

57.7

53.3

46.3

45.5

57.9

July

49.8

49.6

51.5

54.3

50.5

47.1

45.7

56.6

August

49.4

49.1

51.8

58.7

54.3

47.4

46.7

57.0

September

48.0

48.5

51.5

59.8

54.3

47.4

45.2

56.4

October

46.9

47.6

51.0

58.0

52.0

47.1

44.3

56.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers index

 

In October 2018, China's non-manufacturing purchasing managers index was 53.9 percent, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the non-manufacturing kept to increased, while the pace of growth has slowed down.

 

 

In view of different industries, non-manufacturing purchasing managers index of service industry was 52.1 percent, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, while the growth of service industry has slowed down. Of which, the indices of railway transport, air transport, post, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, software and information technology services, insurance, Renting and leasing activities and business services, were positioned in the high level of the range which above 55.0 percent, and the business activities were more active. The indices of capital market services, real estateResident services and repair, were kept lower than the threshold, and the total volume of business decreased. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of construction industry achieved 63.9 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from the previous month, the pace of expansion has kept accelerated. 

 

New orders index was 50.1 percent, down by 0.9 percentage point from the previous month, and was above the threshold, indicating that the pace of non-manufacturing industry’s market demand expansion has slowed down. In view of different industries, the new orders index of service industry was 49.1 percent, decreased 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, and was dropped below the threshold. The new orders index of construction industry was 56.2 percent, increased 0.5 percentage point from the previous month.

 

Input price index was 54.9 percent, down by 0.7 percentage point from the previous month, and higher than the threshold, indicating that the input price during the process of non-manufacturing enterprises’ operating activities continued to increase. In view of different industries, the intermediate input price indices of service industry was 53.4 percent, decreased 0.9 percentage point from the previous month. The input price index of construction industry was 63.0 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the previous month.

 

The sales price index was 51.2 percent, down by 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, and was higher than the threshold, indicating that the pace of overall level of non-manufacturing sales prices growth has narrowed. In view of different industries, the sales price index of service industry was 50.7 percent, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from the previous month. The sales price index of construction industry was 54.0 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage point from the previous month.

 

Employment index was 48.9 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage point from the previous month, lower than the threshold, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises’ labor employment decreased month-on-month. In view of different industries, the employment index of service industry was 48.0 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the previous month. The employment index of construction industry was 54.1 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the previous month.

 

Business activities expectation index was 60.6 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from last month, while still staying in the high level of the range, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises companies were optimistic about market development expectations. In view of different industries, the business activities expectation index of service industry was 59.7 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage point from the previous month. That of construction industry was 66.0 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage point from the previous month.

 

Main Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

Non-manufacturing

PMI

New Orders Index

Input Price Index

Sales Price Index

Employment Index

Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2017- October

54.3

51.1

54.3

51.6

49.4

60.6

November

54.8

51.8

56.2

52.8

49.2

61.6

December

55.0

52.0

54.8

52.6

49.3

60.9

2018-January

55.3

51.9

53.9

52.6

49.4

61.7

February

54.4

50.5

53.2

49.9

49.6

61.2

March

54.6

50.1

49.9

49.3

49.2

61.1

April

54.8

51.1

52.7

50.6

49.0

61.5

May

54.9

51.0

54.2

50.6

49.2

61.0

June

55.0

50.6

53.5

51.1

48.9

60.8

July

54.0

51.0

53.9

52.0

50.2

60.2

August

54.2

50.6

54.3

50.9

50.4

61.4

September

54.9

51.0

55.6

51.5

49.3

60.1

October

53.9

50.1

54.9

51.2

48.9

60.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

Foreign New Orders Index

Unfilled Orders Index

Stock Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

 

 

 

 

 

2017- October

50.7

43.9

46.4

51.1

November

50.9

44.1

46.5

51.6

December

51.5

43.8

46.3

51.3

2018-January

50.1

44.4

46.5

51.3

February

45.9

43.8

47.6

50.7

March

50.4

44.3

46.2

51.6

April

50.0

44.4

46.7

51.5

May

49.1

44.1

46.0

51.7

June

48.2

44.0

46.4

51.6

July

48.9

45.4

45.6

51.3

August

49.0

43.9

46.5

51.4

September

49.8

43.8

47.1

51.6

October

47.8

43.8

47.4

51.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Composite PMI Output Index

 

In October 2018, China's Composite PMI Output Index was 53.1 percent, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point from last month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continued to expanded, while the pace of growth has slowed down.

 

 

Annotations:

 

1. Explanatory Notes

 

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in recession.

 

2.Statistical Coverage

 

The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing industry in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2011), and 3000 samples, as well as 31 divisions of non-manufacturing industry, and 4000 samples.

 

3. Survey Methods

 

PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.

 

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

 

4. Calculation Methods

 

(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indices.

 

The indicator system of manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indices such as production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. The indicator system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indices such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. Sub-indices adopt diffusion index calculation method, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.

 

(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI.

 

Manufacturing PMI was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employees index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.

 

(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index. 

 

Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP. This index will be released since January 2018.

 

5. Seasonal adjustment

 

The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.

 

 

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