National Economy Stayed Generally Stable with Further Economic Restructuring and Upgrade in the First Three Quarters of 2018
National Bureau of Statistics of China2018-10-19 10:00




National Bureau of Statistics of China

19 October 2018

 

In the first three quarters, faced with extremely complex environment at abroad and daunting task of reform and development at home, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Xi Jinping at the core, all regions and departments implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adopted the new development philosophy, focused on the supply-side structural reform, embraced the requirement of high-quality development, coordinated the efforts in stabilizing growth, stimulating reform, adjusting structure, benefiting people’s livelihood and fending off risks. Therefore, the national economy maintained a generally steady and sound performance with a good momentum, featuring in optimized economic structure, emerged new growth drivers along with transformed conventional growth drivers, and improved quality and returns, solid progress was made in high-quality development.

 

According to the preliminary estimates, the gross domestic output (GDP) of China was 65,089.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2018, a year-on-year increase of 6.7 percent at comparable prices. Specifically, the year-on-year growth was 6.8 percent for the first quarter, 6.7 percent for the second quarter, and 6.5 percent for the third quarter. The value added of the primary industry was 4,217.3 billion yuan, up by 3.4 percent year on year; the secondary industry 26,295.3 billion yuan, up by 5.8 percent; and the tertiary industry 34,577.3 billion yuan, up by 7.7 percent.

 

1. The Agricultural Production was Stable and Planting Structures Were Properly Adjusted.

 

The output of summer crops was 138.72 million tons, a decrease of 3.06 million tons or 2.2 percent less over last year, and that of the early rice was 28.59 million tons, a decrease of 1.28 million tons or 4.3 percent less over last year. The autumn grains grow well and are expected to have another good harvest. The planting structure is further upgraded. The sown area for corn decreased, while that for high-quality rice, soybean, and cotton and sugar crops increased. In the first three quarters, the output of pork, beef and mutton was 60.07 million tons, up by 0.2 percent year on year, among which, the output of pork was 38.43 million tons, up by 0.3 percent. There were 428.87 million pigs registered, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3 percent; and 495.79 million pigs were slaughtered, a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percent.

 

2. The Production of Industry and Service Sectors was Generally Stable with Rapid Growth of Enterprises’ Efficiency.

 

In the first three quarters of 2018, the real growth of the total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.4 percent year-on-year, 0.3 percentage point slower than the first half of 2018. An analysis by types of ownership showed that in the first three quarters, the value added of the state holding enterprises went up by 7.0 percent year on year; collective enterprises down by 1.4 percent; share-holding enterprises up by 6.6 percent; and enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan up by 5.7 percent. In terms of sectors, the value added of the mining increased by 1.8 percent on a year-on-year base, the manufacturing grew by 6.7 percent and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water grew by 10.3 percent. In September, the value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 5.8 percent year on year. In the first three quarters, the Index of Services Production increased by 7.8 percent year on year, 0.2 percentage point slower than the first half of 2018. Specifically, information transmission, software and information technology services, and leasing and business services grew by 37.5 percent and 10.8 percent year on year respectively. In September, the Index of Services Production increased by 7.3 percent year on year. In the first eight months, the total profits registered by industrial enterprises above the designated size were 4,424.9 billion yuan, up by 16.2 percent year on year. The profit rate from the principal businesses of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 6.43 percent, 0.35 percentage point higher than that of the same period last year. From January to August, the business revenue of service enterprises above the designated size grew by 12.0 percent year on year, and the profits for service enterprises above the designated size grew by 15.5 percent year on year.

 

3. The Market Sales Registered Continued Growth and the Growth of Residents’ Consumption was Accelerated.

 

In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 27,429.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year rise of 9.3 percent, 0.1 percentage point slower than the first half of 2018. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales in urban areas reached 23,471.7 billion yuan, up by 9.1 percent, and the retail sales in rural areas was 3,958.2 billion yuan, up by 10.4 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the income of the catering was 2,976.3 billion yuan, up by 9.8 percent year on year; and the retail sales of goods were 24,453.6 billion yuan, up by 9.2 percent. The sales of upgraded consumer goods witnessed fast growth. Among the retail sales of enterprises above designated size, the retail sales of petroleum and related products, as well as communication appliances increased by 14.4 percent and 10.7 percent year on year, or 5.4 percentage points and 1.4 percentage points faster than the same period last year. In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 9.2 percent year on year, 0.2 percentage point faster than August. In the first three quarters, the national per capita consumption expenditure of residents was 14,281 yuan, a nominal year-on-year growth of 8.5 percent, 1.0 percentage point faster than the same period last year, or a real growth of 6.3 percent after price adjustment, 0.4 percentage point faster. Specifically, the nominal growth of per capita consumption expenditure of urban households increased by 6.5 percent, 0.3 percentage point faster than the same period last year; the nominal growth of per capita consumption expenditure of rural households increased by 12.0 percent, 3.4 percentage points faster.

 

4. The Investment in Fixed Assets Grew Mildly in a More Steady Way, and Private Investment and the Investment in Manufacturing Accelerated.

 

In the first three quarters, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 48,344.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.4 percent, 0.6 percentage point less than the first six months, and 0.1 percentage point faster than the first eight months. Specifically, private investment reached 30,166.4 billion yuan, up by 8.7 percent year on year , 0.3 percentage point faster than the first half of 2018, or 2.7 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The investment in the primary industry was up by 11.7 percent; the secondary industry grew by 5.2 percent, among which the investment in manufacturing was up by 8.7 percent, 1.9 percentage points faster than the first half of 2018, achieving a faster growth for the sixth consecutive month; the tertiary industry went up by 5.3 percent, among which the investment in infrastructure increased by 3.3 percent. In the first three quarters, the total investment in real estate development was 8,866.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 9.9 percent. The floor space of commercial buildings sold reached 1,193.13 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.9 percent. The total sales of commercial buildings were 10,413.2 billion yuan, a growth of 13.3 percent year on year.

 

5. The Growth of Export Speeded up with Substantial Increase in Import.

 

In the first three quarters, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 22,283.9 billion yuan, an increase of 9.9 percent year on year, 2.1 percentage points faster than the first six months of 2018. The total value of exports was 11,858.5 billion yuan, up by 6.5 percent, 1.8 percentage points faster than the first half of 2018; the total value of imports was 10,425.4 billion yuan, an increase of 14.1 percent year-on-year, 2.5 percentage points faster than the first half of 2018. The trade balance was 1,433.1 billion yuan in surplus, down by 28.3 percent than the same period last year. The imports and exports with major trading partners increased. The imports and exports with European Union, the United States and ASEAN went up by 7.3 percent, 6.5 percent and 12.6 percent respectively. And the imports and exports with some countries along the “Belt and Road” demonstrated growing momentum. The imports and exports with Russia, Poland and Kazakhstan went up by 19.4 percent, 11.9 percent and 11.8 percent respectively. In September, the total value of imports and exports was 2,885.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.2 percent. Among which, the total value of exports was 1,549.2 billion yuan, up by 17.0 percent, and the total value of imports was 1,336.0 billion yuan, up by 17.4 percent. In the first three quarters, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 8,972.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1 percent. In September, the export delivery value of the industrial enterprises above designated size reached 1,183.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7 percent.

 

6. Consumer Price Grew Mildly and the Growth of Prices for Industrial Products was Stable.

 

In the first three quarters, the consumer price went up by 2.1 percent year on year, 0.1 percentage point higher than the first half of 2018. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol went up by 1.6 percent year on year; clothing up by 1.2 percent; housing up by 2.4 percent; articles and services for daily use up by 1.6 percent; transport and communication up by 1.7 percent; education, culture and recreation up by 2.2 percent; medical services and health care up by 5.0 percent; other articles and services up by 1.1 percent. In September, the consumer price was up by 2.5 percent year on year, 0.2 percentage point higher than last month, and up by 0.7 percent month on month. In the first three quarters, the producer prices for industrial products went up by 4.0 percent year on year, 0.1 percentage point higher than the first half of 2018. The purchasing prices for industrial producers went up by 4.5 percent year-on-year. In September, the producer prices for industrial products went up by 3.6 percent year on year, 0.5 percentage point less than last month, up by 0.6 percent month on month; and the purchasing prices for industrial producers were up by 4.2 percent year on year, or up by 0.6 percent month on month.

 

7. The Surveyed Unemployment Rate Dropped and the Employment Situation was Generally Stable.

 

In September, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 4.9 percent, 0.1 percentage point less than last month, or 0.1 percentage point less over the same month last year. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 4.7 percent, 0.2 percentage point less than last month and 0.1 percentage point less than the same month last year. Specifically, the surveyed unemployed rate of major labor force aged from 25 to 59 was 4.3 percent, which was the same as last month. By the end of the third quarter, the number of rural migrant workers reached 181.35 million, 1.66 million more than the same period last year, an increase of 0.9 percent year on year. The average monthly income of rural migrant workers was 3,710 yuan, and increase of 7.3 percent year on year.

 

8. The Resident Income Grew Synchronizely with the National Economy and the Income Gap between Urban and Rural Residents Narrowed.

 

In the first three quarters, the national per capita disposable income was 21,035 yuan, a nominal increase of 8.8 percent year on year, or a real increase of 6.6 percent after price adjustment; the growth rate was the same as the first half of 2018, which is almost same as that of national economy. In terms of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban households was 29,599 yuan, a nominal increase of 7.9 percent year-on-year, or a real increase of 5.7 percent after price adjustment. The per capita disposable income of rural households was 10,645 yuan, a nominal increase of 8.9 percent year-on-year, or a real increase of 6.8 percent after price adjustment. The per capita income of urban households was 2.78 times that of rural households, 0.03 less than the same period last year. The median of the national per capita disposable income was 18,236 yuan, a nominal increase of 8.7 percent year-on-year.

 

9. Economic Structure Continued to be Optimized and the Economy was more Consumption-based. 

 

Industries continued to be upgraded. In the first three quarters, the growth rate of the value added of the tertiary industry was 1.9 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry, accounting for 53.1 percent of the GDP, which was 0.3 percentage point higher than the same period last year and 12.7 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry. The role of consumption as the basic economic function was further solidified. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 78.0 percent, 46.2 percentage points higher than the total capital formation. The consumption expenditure on services continued to represent a larger share. In the third quarter, the consumption expenditure on services accounted for 52.6 percent of the national consumption expenditure of households, 0.2 percentage point higher than the same period last year. The investment structure continued to be optimized. In the first three quarters, the investment in high-tech manufacturing industry grew by 14.9 percent year on year, 9.5 percentage points higher than the total investment. The trade structure was further improved. In the first three quarters, import and export of general trade increased by 13.5 percent, accounting for 58.4 percent of the total value of the imports and exports, an increase of 1.9 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The export of mechanical and electronic products grew by 7.8 percent, accounting for 58.3 percent of the total value of exports.

 

10. The Supply-Side Structural Reform Continued to Deliver Results, and the Growth of New Driving Forces was Accelerated.

 

The capacity utilization rate maintained stable. In the first three quarters, the industrial capacity utilization rate nationwide was 76.6 percent, maintaining the same level as compared with the same period last year. In the third quarter, the capacity utilization rate of smelting and pressing of ferrous metals, as well as mining and washing of coals were 78.7 percent and 70.1 percent respectively, or 2.0 and 1.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The corporate cost and leverage ratio decreased. In the first eight months, the cost for per-hundred-yuan turnover of principal business of the industrial enterprises above the designated size was 84.39 yuan, 0.35 yuan less than the same period last year. By the end of August, the asset-liability ratio of the industrial enterprises above the designated size was 56.6 percent, 0.5 percentage point lower than the same period last year. The inventory of commercial buildings continued to decrease. By the end of September, the floor space of commercial buildings for sale has dropped by 13.0 percent year on year. More efforts were taken to improving weak links of key fields. In the first three quarters, the investment in the management of ecological protection and treatment of environment pollution and the investment in agriculture increased by 33.7 percent and 12.4 percent year on year respectively, or 28.3 percentage points and 7.0 percentage points faster than the total investment. Progress of green development was achieved steadily. In the first three quarters, the energy consumption per unit of GDP dropped by 3.1 percent year on year.

 

New industries grew fast. In the first three quarters, the value added of high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing increased by 11.8 percent and 8.6 percent year on year, 5.4 and 2.2 percentage points faster than that of the industrial enterprises above the designated size. The value added of industrial strategic and emerging industries went up by 8.8 percent year on year, 2.4 percentage points faster than that of the industrial enterprises above the designated size. New products grew rapidly. In the first three quarters, the production of new energy vehicles was up by 54.8 percent year on year, and integrated circuits up by 11.7 percent. New types of business were booming. In the first three quarters, the online retail sales reached 6,278.5 billion yuan, a year on year growth of 27.0 percent. Specifically, the online retail sales of physical goods were 4,793.8 billion yuan, a year on year growth of 27.7 percent, accounting for 17.5 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods; the online retail sales of non-physical goods was 1,484.7 billion yuan, an increase of 24.8 percent.

 

Generally speaking, the national economy was running within reasonable range in the first three quarters, and the economy continued to stay stable with good growing momentum. The economic structure was optimized, the development quality and efficiency was improved, the opening-up was carried forward and people’s living standard was raised. However, we must be fully aware that challenges from outside are increasing, structure adjustment will continue to bring pains, and there are uncertainties behind the stable economy that is also growing more slowly and under greater downward pressure. At next stage, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Xi Jinping at the core and the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, we should implement the requirement of high-quality development, continue to deepen the reforms and opening-up, prioritize improving weak areas as the key task of supply-side structural reform, increase effective demand, and focus on the stability in areas like employment, financial sector, foreign trade, foreign investment, domestic investment and market expectation, speed efforts to ensure a steady and healthy development of the economy, and accomplishing the major targets set for economic and social development in 2018.

 

Notes:

 

1. The growth rate of gross domestic product, value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are real growth by using comparable prices. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.

 

2. According to the auto-revision function of the seasonal adjustment model, GDP in each quarter and the month-on-month changes of the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households), and total retail sales of consumer goods have been revised. The revised figures, quarter-on-quarter GDP data for the first three quarters of 2018 and other indicators for September 2018 are as follows:

 

The quarter-on-quarter growth of GDP since 2017 were 1.5 percent, 1.8 percent, 1.8 percent, 1.5 percent, 1.5 percent, 1.7 percent and 1.6 percent respectively.

 

Month-on-Month Changes

 

 

Value Added of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size

(%)

Investment in Fixed  Assets (Excluding Rural Households)

(%)

Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods

(%)

September 2017

0.55

0.40

0.83

October 2017

0.51

0.41

0.82

November 2017

0.46

0.41

0.76

December 2017

0.52

0.39

0.74

January 2018

0.58

0.40

0.68

February 2018

0.58

0.41

0.60

March 2018

0.37

0.39

0.80

April 2018

0.62

0.40

0.79

May 2018

0.55

0.40

0.41

June 2018

0.38

0.43

0.80

July 2018

0.47

0.42

0.84

August 2018

0.53

0.41

0.82

September 2018

0.50

0.43

0.80

 

3. Industrial enterprises above designated size are industrial enterprises with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan.

 

As industrial enterprises above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of same period last year used for estimating year-on-year growth rates like that of products output, are basically as consistent as possible with the current period and different from the coverage of the data published last year. The main reasons are as follows: First, the statistical units change. Every year, some enterprises are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises are removed from the survey because of downsizing. Besides, enterprises that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, cancelled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact. Second, duplicated outputs across regions of enterprise groups have been removed based on the ad hoc surveys since duplication was found in the products output of some enterprise groups.

 

4. The Index of Services Production is the change of production in the reporting period compared to the base period with the price factors deducted.

 

5. Enterprises above the designated size in total retail sales of consumer goods include wholesale enterprises, retail enterprises and lodging and catering enterprises with annual revenue from principle business over 20 million yuan, 5 million yuan and 2 million yuan respectively.

 

The data for the total retail sales of consumer goods of the same period last year have been revised according to the results of the third national agricultural census and related regulations and the growth rates are calculated on a comparable base.

 

Online retail sales refer to the retail sales of goods and services realized through internet trading platforms (including self-built websites and third-party platforms). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (e.g. virtual goods and services).

 

The total retail sales of consumer goods include the online retail sales of physical goods, but not the non-physical goods. 

 

6. The median of national per capita disposable income of urban and rural households refers to the per capita disposable income of households which lies in the middle of all surveyed households ranked from low to high on the basis of per capital disposable income level.

 

7. Rural migrant workers refer to rural workers who work in areas other than the administration area where they register their households permanently at the reference time.

 

8. Data of imports and exports are from the General Administration of Customs.

 

9. Due to the round-off reasons, the subentries may not add up to the aggregate totals.

 

In case of any differences between English translation and the original Chinese text, the Chinese edition shall prevail

 

 

 

FAQs  |  About NBS  |  Contact Us  |  Copyright National Bureau of Statistics of China,2012