National Economy Registered a Stable Performance with Good Momentum for Growth in the First Half of 2018
National Bureau of Statistics of China2018-07-16 10:00




National Bureau of Statistics of China

16 July 2018

 

In the first half year of 2018, faced with extremely complex environment both at home and abroad, under the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, all regions and departments fully implemented the spirit of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC), the second and the third plenary sessions of the 19th CPC Central Committee, adhered to the general working principle of making progress while maintaining stability, firmly put into practice the new development philosophy, actively took the requirement of high-quality development as the benchmark, worked to overcome obstacles and made solid progress in their work. As a result, the national economy sustained the momentum of steady and sound development with restructuring deepened, drivers of growth replaced and the quality and efficiency improved steadily, signifying a good start for national economy to move toward high-quality development.

 

According to the preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China was 41,896.1 billion yuan in the first half year of 2018, a year-on-year increase of 6.8 percent at comparable prices. Specifically, the year-on-year growth was 6.8 percent for the first quarter, and 6.7 percent for the second quarter, staying within the range between 6.7 percent and 6.9 percent for 12 quarters consecutively. The value added of the primary industry was 2,208.7 billion yuan, up by 3.2 percent year on year; the secondary industry 16,929.9 billion yuan, up by 6.1 percent; and the tertiary industry 22,757.6 billion yuan, up by 7.6 percent.

 

1. Planting Structure was Optimized and Agricultural Production was Sound.

 

With the restructuring of grain planting, the summer grain is expected to have a good harvest. The supply-side structural reform in agriculture deepened and the sown area of cotton and soybean increased. Animal Husbandry was stable. In the first half year, the output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry was 39.95 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 0.9 percent, among which the output of pork was 26.14 million tons, up by 1.4 percent. The number of pigs registered was 409.04 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 percent and that of pigs slaughtered 334.22 million, a year-on-year growth of 1.2 percent.

 

2. The Industrial Production was Generally Stable and the Structure Continued to be Optimized.

 

In the first half year, the real growth rate of total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size was 6.7 percent year on year, 0.1 percentage point lower than the first quarter. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added of the state holding enterprises went up by 7.6 percent year on year; collective enterprises down by 1.9 percent; share-holding enterprises up by 6.7 percent; and enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan up by 6.2 percent. In terms of sectors, the value added of the mining grew by 1.6 percent on a year-on-year base, the manufacturing grew by 6.9 percent and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water grew by 10.5 percent. The value added of high-tech industry and equipment manufacturing industry grew by 11.6 percent and 9.2 percent year on year respectively, 4.9 percentage points and 5.2 percentage points higher than that of the industrial enterprises above the designated size as a whole. In June, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size went up by 6.0 percent year on year. In the first five months of 2018, the total profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size was 2,729.8 billion yuan, up by 16.5 percent year on year. The profit rate from principal businesses of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 6.36 percent, 0.35 percentage point higher than that of the same period last year.

 

3. Service Industry Grew Fast and the Emerging Services Witnessed Prosperous Development.

 

In the first half year, the Index of Services Production increased by 8.0 percent year on year, 0.1 percentage point lower than the first quarter, maintaining high growth rates. Specifically, information transmission, software and information technology services, rental and business services maintained high growth rates. In June, the Index of Services Production increased by 8.0 percent year on year. In the first five months, the business revenue of service enterprises above the designated size grew by 13.3 percent year on year, 0.2 percentage point higher than the same period last year. Specifically, the business revenue of strategic emerging services, science and technology services and high-tech services grew by 18.1 percent, 17.5 percent and 15.4 percent respectively, 2.4 percentage points, 5.0 percentage points and 4.5 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

 

4. The Growth of Consumer Consumption and Market Sales was Stable and the Growth of Upgraded Consumer Goods was Fast.

 

In the first half year, the national per capita consumption expenditure was 9,609 yuan, a nominal growth of 8.8 percent year on year, 1.2 percentage points higher than that of the first quarter, or a real growth of 6.7 percent after deducting price factors, up by 1.3 percentage points. The nominal growth of per capita consumption expenditure of urban households was 6.8 percent, up by 1.1 percentage points. The nominal growth of per capita consumption expenditure of rural households was 12.2 percent, up by 1.2 percentage points. In the first half year, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 18,001.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4 percent, 0.4 percentage point lower than the first quarter. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales in urban areas reached 15,409.1 billion yuan, up by 9.2 percent, and the retail sales in rural areas stood at 2,592.7 billion yuan, up by 10.5 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the income of catering was 1,945.7 billion yuan, up by 9.9 percent; and the retail sales of goods were 16,056.1 billion yuan, up by 9.3 percent. The sales of upgraded consumer goods grew fast. The retail sales of enterprises above the designated size of household appliances and audio-video equipments, communication equipments and cosmetics went up by 10.6 percent, 10.6 percent and 14.2 percent respectively, 0.2 percentage point, 0.5 percentage point and 2.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 9.0 percent year on year, 0.5 percentage point higher than last month.

 

5. The Growth of Investment in Fixed Assets was Stable and Private Investment and Manufacturing Investment Rebound.

 

In the first half year, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 29,731.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.0 percent, 1.5 percentage points lower than the first quarter. Specifically, the private investment reached 18,453.9 billion yuan, up by 8.4 percent year on year, 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. The investment in the primary industry increased by 13.5 percent; the secondary industry was up by 3.8 percent, among which the investment in manufacturing was up by 6.8 percent, achieving growth for the third consecutive month, 3.0 percentage points higher than the first quarter, or 1.3 percentage points higher than the same period of last year; the tertiary industry grew by 6.8 percent, among which the investment in infrastructure was up by 7.3 percent. The investment in high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 13.1 percent, 7.1 percentage points higher than the total investment. The investment in real estate development in the half year was 5,553.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 9.7 percent. The floor space of commercial buildings sold was 771.43 million square meters, up by 3.3 percent. The sales of commercial buildings totaled 6,694.5 billion yuan, up by 13.2 percent.

 

6. The Surplus of Imports and Exports of Goods was Narrowed and the Trade Structure Continued to be Improved.

 

The total value of imports and exports of goods in the first half year was 14,122.7 billion yuan, an increase of 7.9 percent year on year. The total value of exports was 7,512.0 billion yuan, up by 4.9 percent; the total value of imports was 6,610.7 billion yuan, an increase of 11.5 percent. The trade balance was 901.3 billion yuan in surplus, 26.7 percent less than the same period of last year. The trade structure was further improved. The import and export of general trade increased by 12.2 percent, accounting for 59 percent of the total value of the imports and exports, an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. The export of mechanical and electronic products increased by 7 percent, accounting for 58.6 percent of the total value of exports. The imports and exports with the top three trade partners continued to grow. Specifically, the imports and exports with European Union, United States and ASEAN went up by 5.3 percent, 5.2 percent and 11 percent respectively, which combined to make up 41 percent of the total value of imports and exports. During the same period, the imports and exports with 16 Central and Eastern European countries increased by 14.7 percent, 6.8 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the total value of imports and exports. In June, the total value of imports and exports was 2,493.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3 percent. Specifically, the total value of exports was 1,377.7 billion yuan, up by 3.1 percent, and the total value of imports was 1,115.8 billion yuan, up by 6.0 percent. In the first half year, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 5,716.2 billion yuan, up by 5.7 percent year on year. In June, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 1,054.7 billion yuan, up by 2.8 percent.

 

7. The Resident Income Grew Steadily and Employment was Good and Stable.

 

In the first half year, the national per capita disposable income was 14,063 yuan, a nominal growth of 8.7 percent year on year, or a real increase of 6.6 percent after deducting price factors. In terms of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban households was 19,770 yuan, a nominal growth of 7.9 percent year on year, or a real growth of 5.8 percent after deducting price factors. The per capita disposable income of rural households was 7,142 yuan, a nominal growth of 8.8 percent year on year, up by 6.8 percent after deducting price factors. The per capita income of urban households was 2.77 times that of the rural households, 0.02 less than the same period of last year. The median of the national disposal income was 12,186 yuan, a nominal increase of 8.4 percent year on year. In June, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 4.8 percent, the same as that of last month, or 0.1 percentage point lower than the same month of last year. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 4.7 percent, the same as last month and 0.2 percentage point lower than the same period of last year. By the end of the second quarter, the number of rural migrant workers reached 180.22 million, 1.49 million more than the same period of last year, an increase of 0.8 percent. The average monthly income of migrant workers was 3,661 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.5 percent.

 

8. The Consumer Price Rose Mildly and the Price of Industrial Products Rose Steadily.

 

In the first half year, the consumer price went up by 2.0 percent year on year, 0.1 percentage point lower than the first quarter. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol went up by 1.4 percent year on year; clothing up by 1.1 percent; housing up by 2.3 percent; articles and services for daily use up by 1.6 percent; transportation and communication up by 1.2 percent; education, culture and recreation up by 2.1 percent; medical services and health care up by 5.5 percent; other articles and services up by 1.1 percent. In June, the consumer price was up by 1.9 percent year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point higher than May and down by 0.1 percent month on month. In the first half year, the producer prices for industrial products went up by 3.9 percent year on year, 0.2 percentage point higher than the first quarter; the purchasing prices for industrial producers were up by 4.4 percent year on year. In June, the producer prices for industrial products went up by 4.7 percent year on year, 0.6 percentage point higher than last month, and a month-on-month increase of 0.3 percent; the purchasing prices for industrial producers were up by 5.1 percent year on year, or an increase of 0.4 percent month on month.

 

9. Economic Restructuring and Upgrading Achieved Notable Results and the Growth of New Driving Forces Accelerated.

 

The economic structure continued to be optimized. An analysis by industrial structures shows that the growth rate of the value added of the tertiary industry was 1.5 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry in the first half year, accounting for 54.3 percent of the GDP, which was 0.3 percentage point higher than that of the same period last year and 13.9 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry. Analyzed by demand structures, the final consumption expenditure’s contribution to the economic growth reached 78.5 percent, 47.1 percentage points higher than the total capital formation. New industries and new products grew rapidly. Analyzed by the structure of industrial sectors, in the first half year, the value added of industrial strategic and emerging industry grew by 8.7 percent year on year, 2.0 percentage points higher than that of the industrial enterprises above the designated size. The production of new energy vehicles was up by 88.1 percent year on year, industrial robots up by 23.9 percent and integrated circuits up by 15.0 percent. New Consumption was booming. Analyzed by trade structure, the online retail sales reached 4,081.0 billion yuan in the first half year, a year-on-year growth of 30.1 percent. Specifically, the online retail sales of physical goods were 3,127.7 billion yuan, an increase of 29.8 percent, accounting for 17.4 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods, up by 3.6 percentage points year on year; the online retail sales of non-physical goods was 953.3 billion yuan, an increase of 30.9 percent. Green development was moving forward steadily. In terms of energy conservation and emission reduction, the energy consumption per unit of GDP was down by 3.2 percent year on year in the first half year.

 

10. The Supply-Side Structural Reform was Deepened and the Expectation of the Market was Positive.

 

The work to cut structural overcapacity continued to deepen. In the first half year, the industrial capacity utilization rate nationwide was 76.7 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the first quarter, and 0.3 percentage point higher than the same period of last year. The efforts to reduce inventory made remarkable achievement. By the end of June, the floor space of commercial buildings for sale has dropped by 14.7 percent year on year. The Corporate leverage ratio and cost continued to decrease. At the end of May, the asset-liability ratio of the industrial enterprises above the designated size was 56.6 percent, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage point. For the first five months, the cost for per-hundred-yuan turnover of principal business of the industrial enterprises above the designated size was 84.49 yuan, 0.31 yuan less year on year. The investment in weak areas grew rapidly. In the first half year, the investment in the management of ecological protection and treatment of environment pollution and the investment in agriculture increased by 35.4 percent and 15.4 percent year on year respectively, or 29.4 percentage points and 9.4 percentage points higher than the total investment respectively. The market expectation stayed positive. In June, the PMI Composite Output Index was 54.4 percent, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index was 51.5 percent and the Business Activity Index for Non-Manufacturing Industries was 55.0 percent, continuing to perform within the expansion range.

 

Generally speaking, the national economy in the first half year maintained the momentum of steady and sound development with increased favorable conditions to support the economy toward high quality development, laying a sound foundation for achieving main social and economic development goals of the year. However, we should also be aware that the external uncertainties are increasing and economic restructuring is in a phase of overcoming difficulties. We should adhere to the general working guideline of making progress while maintaining stability and maintain strategic focus. We should adhere to the supply-side structural reform, continuously expand effective demand, revitalize the real economy, respond actively to external challenges, guard against and dissolve risks, guide and stabilize social expectation, and coordinate the efforts in stabilizing growth, stimulating reform, adjusting structure, benefiting people’s livelihood and fending off risks so as to ensure the steady and healthy development of the economy.

 

Notes:

 

1. The growth rates of gross domestic product, value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are real growth by using comparable prices. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.

 

2. According to the auto-revision function of the seasonal adjustment model, revisions were made to quarter-on-quarter growth of GDP and to month-on-month changes of the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households), and the total retail sales of consumer goods. The revised figures, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth estimates for the second quarter of 2018 and month-on-month changes of other indicators for June 2018 are as follows:

 

Month-on-Month Changes

 

Value Added of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size

(%)

Investment in Fixed  Assets (Excluding Rural Households)

(%)

Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods

(%)

 

 

 

 

July 2017

0.76

0.50

0.91

August 2017

0.40

0.49

0.78

September 2017

0.43

0.50

0.84

October 2017

0.57

0.49

0.94

November 2017

0.50

0.48

0.86

December 2017

0.46

0.48

0.81

January 2018

0.52

0.47

0.74

February 2018

0.58

0.48

0.64

March 2018

0.58

0.49

0.53

April 2018

0.36

0.48

0.76

May 2018

0.60

0.47

0.65

June 2018

0.55

0.46

0.31

 

 

 

 

 

The quarter-on-quarter growth of GDP in 2017 and the first and second quarter of 2018 were 1.5 percent, 1.9 percent, 1.8 percent, 1.6 percent, 1.4 percent and 1.8 percent respectively.

 

3. Industrial enterprises above the designated size are industrial enterprises with annual revenue from principle business at and over 20 million yuan. As the scope of industrial enterprises above the designated size changes every year, to ensure data comparability between years, data used for estimating year-on-year growth rates of products output are consistent to the extent possible with the scope of the industrial enterprises of the same period, which cause difference in terms of statistical coverage from the data published last year. The main reasons are as follows: Firstly, the scope of statistical units changes. Every year, some enterprises are included in the survey as they meet the threshold and some enterprises are withdrawn from the survey because of downsizing. Besides, there are also newly-built enterprises that are put into operation, enterprises in insolvency and enterprises whose registration are cancelled or licenses revoked. Secondly, there exists double counting across regions for output of some products from corporate groups (companies), and data resulting from the double counting are removed according to ad hoc survey.

 

4. The Index of Services Production is the change of production in the reporting period compared to the base period with the price factors deducted.

 

5. Enterprises above the designated size in total retail sales of consumer goods include wholesale enterprises, retail enterprises and lodging and catering enterprises with annual revenue from principle business over 20 million yuan, 5 million yuan and 2 million yuan respectively.

 

The data for the total retail sales of consumer goods of the same period last year have been revised according to the results of the third national agricultural census and related regulations and the growth rates are calculated on a comparable base.

 

Online retail sales refer to the retail sales of goods and services realized through internet trading platforms (including self-built websites and third-party platforms). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (e.g. virtual goods and services).

 

The total retail sales of consumer goods include the online retail sales of physical goods, but not the non-physical goods. 

 

6. The median of national per capita disposable income of urban and rural households refers to the per capita disposable income of households which lies in the middle of all surveyed households ranked from low to high on the basis of per capital disposable income level.

 

7. Rural migrant workers refer to rural workers who work in areas other than the administration area where they register their households permanently at the reference time.

 

8. Data of imports and exports are from the General Administration of Customs.

 

9. Due to the round-off reasons, the subentries may not add up to the aggregate totals.

 

In case of any differences between English translation and the original Chinese text, the Chinese edition shall prevail

 

 

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