China's PMI Was 51.8 Percent in March
Department of Service Statistics of NBS
China Federation of Logistics and Purchases (CFLP)
In March 2017, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 51.8 percent, rising for two consecutive months, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over last month, and the manufacturing industry continued to keep a steady and positive trend.
In view of the sizes of enterprises, the PMI of large-sized enterprises was 53.3 percent, remained at the same level over last month, and continued to maintain steady expansion; that of medium-sized enterprises was 50.4 percent, decreased 0.1 percentage point over last month, and continued the expansion trend; that of small-sized enterprises was 48.6 percent, increased 2.2 percentage points over last month, and the contraction narrowed obviously.
Among the five sub-indices composing PMI, the production index, new orders index and supplier delivery time index were higher than the threshold. The employed person index was at the threshold. The main raw materials inventory index was lower than the threshold.
Production index was 54.2 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage points month-on-month, and positioned in the expansion range, indicating that the growth of manufacturing production continued to accelerate.
New orders index was 53.3 percent, increased 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, and was higher than the threshold, showing that the manufacturing market demand kept growing.
Employed person index was 50.0 percent, increased 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, and was at the threshold, indicating that the labor employment of manufacturing enterprises had no obvious change from the previous month.
Main raw materials inventory index was 48.3 percent, decreased 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, and continued to be below the threshold, indicating that the manufacturing main raw material inventory continued to decrease.
Supplier delivery time index was 50.3 percent, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points over last month, but still stayed above the threshold, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing raw material suppliers accelerated slightly.
| China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||
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| PMI |
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| Production Index | New Orders Index | Main Raw Materials Inventory Index | Employed Person Index | Supplier Delivery Time Index | ||
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| 2016-March | 50.2 | 52.3 | 51.4 | 48.2 | 48.1 | 51.3 |
| April | 50.1 | 52.2 | 51.0 | 47.4 | 47.8 | 50.1 |
| May | 50.1 | 52.3 | 50.7 | 47.6 | 48.2 | 50.4 |
| June | 50.0 | 52.5 | 50.5 | 47.0 | 47.9 | 50.7 |
| July | 49.9 | 52.1 | 50.4 | 47.3 | 48.2 | 50.5 |
| August | 50.4 | 52.6 | 51.3 | 47.6 | 48.4 | 50.6 |
| September | 50.4 | 52.8 | 50.9 | 47.4 | 48.6 | 49.9 |
| October | 51.2 | 53.3 | 52.8 | 48.1 | 48.8 | 50.2 |
| November | 51.7 | 53.9 | 53.2 | 48.4 | 49.2 | 49.7 |
| December | 51.4 | 53.3 | 53.2 | 48.0 | 48.9 | 50.0 |
| 2017-January | 51.3 | 53.1 | 52.8 | 48.0 | 49.2 | 49.8 |
| February | 51.6 | 53.7 | 53.0 | 48.6 | 49.7 | 50.5 |
| March | 51.8 | 54.2 | 53.3 | 48.3 | 50.0 | 50.3 |
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| Related Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||||
| Unit: % | ||||||||
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| New Export Orders Index | Import Index | Purchase Quantity Index | Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index | Producer Price Index | Finished Goods Inventory Index | Open Orders Index | Production And Business Activities Expectation Index |
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| 2016-March | 50.2 | 50.1 | 52.6 | 55.3 | 50.9 | 46.0 | 45.7 | 54.8 |
| April | 50.1 | 49.5 | 51.0 | 57.6 | 51.7 | 45.5 | 44.8 | 55.0 |
| May | 50.0 | 49.6 | 51.2 | 55.3 | 49.7 | 46.8 | 45.1 | 55.1 |
| June | 49.6 | 49.1 | 50.5 | 51.3 | 47.0 | 46.5 | 45.0 | 55.2 |
| July | 49.0 | 49.3 | 50.5 | 54.6 | 50.0 | 46.8 | 45.5 | 55.8 |
| August | 49.7 | 49.5 | 52.6 | 57.2 | 52.0 | 46.6 | 45.0 | 56.4 |
| September | 50.1 | 50.4 | 51.9 | 57.5 | 51.5 | 46.4 | 45.2 | 57.3 |
| October | 49.2 | 49.9 | 52.4 | 62.6 | 55.5 | 46.9 | 45.8 | 58.2 |
| November | 50.3 | 50.6 | 52.9 | 68.3 | 58.3 | 45.9 | 46.7 | 59.0 |
| December | 50.1 | 50.3 | 52.1 | 69.6 | 58.8 | 44.4 | 46.2 | 58.2 |
| 2017-January | 50.3 | 50.7 | 52.6 | 64.5 | 54.7 | 45.0 | 46.3 | 58.5 |
| February | 50.8 | 51.2 | 51.4 | 64.2 | 56.3 | 47.6 | 46.0 | 60.0 |
| March | 51.0 | 50.5 | 53.4 | 59.3 | 53.2 | 47.3 | 46.1 | 58.3 |
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Annotations:
1. Explanatory Notes
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the manufacturing economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the manufacturing economy is in recession.
2.Statistical Coverage
The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing sector in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2011), and 3000 samples.
3. Survey Methods
PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing sector as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing sector. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.
The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.
4. Calculation Methods
The questionnaire of manufacturing purchasing managers survey covers 13 questions related to production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation and etc.. Diffusion index was calculated for each question, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Of which, the producer price index was released since January 2017.
PMI is a composite index, which was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employees index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.
5. Seasonal adjustment
The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data. Since January 2017, the seasonal adjustment method for production and business activities expectation index was improved, and the historical data was revised.