2016: A Good Start for China’s Economy during the 13th Five-Year Plan Period
National Bureau of Statistics of China2017-01-20 10:00




2016: A Good Start for China’s Economy during the 13th Five-Year Plan Period

 

National Bureau of Statistics of China

20 January, 2017

 

In 2016, faced with complicated domestic and international environment, under the leadership of the Central Party Committee headed by General Secretary Xi Jinping as the core, the whole country has carried forward the overall plan for promoting all-round economic, political, cultural, social and ecological progress as well as the “Four Pronged Comprehensive Strategy” in a coordinated way, adhered to the general work guideline of making progress while maintaining stability, followed the new vision of development, insisted on supply-side structural reform as the mainline, appropriately expanded the aggregate demand, advanced reforms, properly responded to risks and challenges and shaped good social expectations. As a result, the national economy has achieved moderate yet steady and sound development, getting off to a good start during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.

 

According to the preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China was 74,412.7 billion yuan in 2016, an increase of 6.7 percent compared with last year. Specifically, the year-on-year growth of GDP for the first quarter was 6.7 percent, 6.7 percent for the second quarter, 6.7 percent for the third quarter, and 6.8 percent for the fourth quarter. The value added of the primary industry was 6,367.1 billion yuan, up by 3.3 percent over the previous year; that of the secondary industry was 29,623.6 billion yuan, up by 6.1 percent; and 38,422.1 billion yuan for the tertiary industry, up by 7.8 percent.

 

1. Agricultural Production Enjoyed Another Harvest and Production of Animal Husbandry was Generally Stable.

 

The total grain output in 2016 was 616.24 million tons, a decrease of 5.20 million tons compared with last year, down by 0.8 percent; however, it is still the second high in history. The total output of summer grain was 139.20 million tons, down by 1.2 percent; the total output of early rice was 32.78 million tons, down by 2.7 percent; the total output of autumn grain was 444.26 million tons, down by 0.6 percent. The total output of cotton in 2016 was 5.34 million tons, down by 4.6 percent. The total output of oil-bearing crops was 36.13 million tons, up by 2.2 percent; that of vegetables was 800.05 million tons, up by 1.9 percent; that of fruits was 283.19 million tons, up by 3.4 percent. The total output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry was 83.64 million tons, down by 1.1 percent over last year, among which the total output of pork was 52.99 million tons, down by 3.4 percent; the beef 7.17 million tons, up by 2.4 percent; the mutton 4.59 million tons, up by 4.2 percent; the poultry 18.88 million tons, up by 3.4 percent. The total output of poultry eggs was 30.95 million tons, up by 3.2 percent; the total output of milk was 36.02 million tons, down by 4.1 percent.

 

2. Industrial Production Grew Steadily with Rising Profit for Enterprises.

 

The real growth of the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size in 2016 was 6.0 percent, the same as that in the first three quarters. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added of the state holding enterprises was up by 2.0 percent; that of the collective enterprises, down by 1.3 percent; share-holding enterprises, up by 6.9 percent; and enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, up by 4.5 percent. In terms of sectors, the value added of the mining dropped by 1.0 percent, the manufacturing increased by 6.8 percent and the electricity, thermal power, gas and the production and supply of water increased by 5.5 percent. The value added of the high-tech industry grew by 10.8 percent over last year, 4.8 percentage points faster than industrial enterprises above the designated size, accounting for 12.4 percent of industrial enterprises above the designated size, 0.6 percentage point more than last year. In 2016, the sales-output ratio of industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 97.8 percent. The export delivery value of these enterprises reached 11,919.1 billion yuan, up by 0.4 percent over last year. In December, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size was up by 6.0 percent year-on-year or up by 0.46 percent month-on-month.

 

From January to November, the profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size stood at 6,033.4 billion yuan, up by 9.4 percent year-on-year, 1.0 percentage point faster than that in the first three quarters. The profit rate of the principal activities of the industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5.85 percent, up by 0.26 percentage point year-on-year.

 

3. The Growth of Investment in Fixed Assets was Slow yet Stable, and the Floor Space of Commercial Buildings for Sale Decreased.

 

In 2016, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 59,650.1 billion yuan, a nominal growth of 8.1 percent over last year or a real growth of 8.8 percent after deducting price factors, 0.1 percentage point slower than that in the first three quarters. Specifically, the investment by the state holding enterprises reached 21,309.6 billion yuan, a rise of 18.7 percent; private investment reached 36,521.9 billion yuan, up by 3.2 percent, 0.7 percentage point faster than that in the first three quarters, accounting for 61.2 percent of the total investment. The investment in the primary industry was 1,883.8 billion yuan, up by 21.1 percent; the secondary industry 23,182.6 billion yuan, up by 3.5 percent; and the tertiary industry 34,583.7 billion yuan, an increase of 10.9 percent, among which the investment in infrastructure was 11,887.8 billion yuan, up by 17.4 percent. The investment in the high-tech industry went up by 15.8 percent year-on-year, 7.7 percentage points faster than that of the total investment. The funds in place for investment in fixed assets in 2016 were 60,696.9 billion yuan, up by 5.8 percent compared with last year. The planned total investment in newly-started projects in 2016 was 49,329.5 billion yuan, up by 20.9 percent over last year. In December, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) grew by 0.53 percent month-on-month.

 

The total investment in real estate development in 2016 was 10,258.1 billion yuan, a nominal growth of 6.9 percent (a real growth of 7.5 percent after deducting price factors), 1.1 percentage points faster than that in the first three quarters and 5.9 percentage points faster than last year, among which the investment in residential buildings went up by 6.4 percent. The floor space newly started was 1,669.28 million square meters, up by 8.1 percent over last year. Specifically, the newly started floor space of residential buildings went up by 8.7 percent. The floor space of commercial buildings sold was 1,573.49 million square meters, up by 22.5 percent. Specifically, the floor space of residential buildings sold was up by 22.4 percent. The total sales of commercial buildings were 11,762.7 billion yuan, up by 34.8 percent, among which the sales of residential buildings were up by 36.1 percent. The land space purchased for real estate development was 220.25 million square meters, down by 3.4 percent over last year. By the end of December, the floor space of commercial buildings for sale was 695.39 million square meters, down by 3.2 percent compared with that at the end of last year. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises reached 14,421.4 billion yuan, up by 15.2 percent over last year.

 

4. Market Sales Witnessed Steady and Comparatively Fast Growth, and Categories of Upgraded Consumer Goods Enjoyed Rapid Growth.

 

In 2016, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 33,231.6 billion yuan, a nominal annual rise of 10.4 percent (a real growth of 9.6 percent after deducting price factors), the same as that in the first three quarters. Specifically, the retail sales of consumer goods by enterprises above the designated size stood at 15,428.6 billion yuan, up by 8.1 percent. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales in urban areas reached 28,581.4 billion yuan, up by 10.4 percent, and the retail sales in rural areas stood at 4,650.3 billion yuan, up by 10.9 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the income of catering industry was 3,579.9 billion yuan, up by 10.8 percent; and the retail sales of goods were 29,651.8 billion yuan, up by 10.4 percent. In particular, the retail sales of the enterprises above the designated size reached 14,507.3 billion yuan, up by 8.3 percent. The retail sales of communication equipments and housing goods grew fast. The retail sales of communication equipments went up by 11.9 percent; the furniture up by 12.7 percent; the building and decoration materials up by 14.0 percent. In December, the nominal growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 10.9 percent year-on-year (a real growth of 9.2 percent after deducting price factors), or 0.89 percent month-on-month.

 

In 2016, the online retail sales reached 5,155.6 billion yuan, an increase of 26.2 percent compared with last year, among which the retail sales of physical goods was 4,194.4 billion yuan, up by 25.6 percent, accounting for 12.6 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods, or 1.8 percentage points higher than that in last year.

 

5. The Drop in the Value of Exports Narrowed and the Value of Imports Shifted from Negative to Positive.

 

The total value of imports and exports in 2016 was 24,334.4 billion yuan, down by 0.9 percent, and 6.1 percentage points less than last year. The total value of exports was 13,840.9 billion yuan, down by 2.0 percent; the total value of imports was 10,493.6 billion yuan, up by 0.6 percent. In particular, the value of general trade accounted for 55 percent of the total value of imports and exports, 1.0 percentage point higher than last year. The trade balance was 3,347.3 billion yuan in surplus. By quarters, the total value of exports in the first quarter, second quarter and third quarter dropped by 7.9 percent, 0.8 percent and 0.3 percent respectively compared with the same period of last year, while the fourth quarter went up by 0.3 percent. In December, the total value of imports and exports was 2,587.1 billion yuan, up by 4.9 percent year-on-year. Of this total, the value of exports was 1,431.3 billion yuan, up by 0.6 percent; and the value of imports was 1,155.9 billion yuan, up by 10.8 percent.

 

6. The Consumer Price Rose Moderately and the Month-on-Month Change of Producer Prices for Industrial Goods Shifted from Decrease to Increase.

 

In 2016, the consumer price went up by 2.0 percent over last year, the same level as that in the first three quarters. Specifically, the price went up by 2.1 percent in urban areas and up 1.9 percent in rural areas. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food, tobacco and liquor went up by 3.8 percent; clothing up by 1.4 percent; residence up by 1.6 percent, household facilities, articles and services up by 0.5 percent; transportation and communications down by 1.3 percent; education, culture and recreation up by 1.6 percent; health care and medical services up by 3.8 percent; and miscellaneous goods and services up by 2.8 percent. In terms of food, tobacco and liquor prices, grain went up by 0.5 percent, pork up by 16.9 percent and fresh vegetables up by 11.7 percent. In December, the consumer prices went up by 2.1 percent year-on-year, or up by 0.2 percent month-on-month. In 2016, the producer prices for industrial products went down by 1.4 percent compared with last year. After 54 consecutive months of decline which ended in September, its the year-on-year growth continued to expand. The year-on-year growth in December was 5.5 percent and the month-on-month growth was 1.6 percent. The purchasing prices for manufactured goods was down by 2.0 percent compared with last year and in December, it was up by 6.3 percent year-on-year and up 1.9 percent month-on-month.

 

7. Residents’ Income Increased Steadily and Rural-Urban Disparity Continued to Narrow Down.

 

In 2016, the nationwide per capita disposable income of residents was 23,821 yuan, a nominal growth of 8.4 percent over last year, or a real increase of 6.3 percent after deducting price factors. In terms of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban households was 33,616 yuan, up by 7.8 percent, or a real growth of 5.6 percent after deducting price factors. The per capita disposable income of rural households was 12,363 yuan, up by 8.2 percent, or 6.2 percent in real terms after deducting price factors. The per capita income of urban households was 2.72 times of the rural households, 0.01 less than last year. The median of the nationwide disposal income was 20,883 yuan, a nominal increase of 8.3 percent. Taking the per capita disposable income of nationwide households by income quintiles, that of the low-income group reached 5,529 yuan, the lower-middle-income group 12,899 yuan, the middle-income group 20,924 yuan, the upper-middle-income group 31,990 yuan, and the high-income group 59,259 yuan. In 2016, the nationwide per capita consumption expenditure was 17,111 yuan, a nominal increase of 8.9 percent, or a real increase of 6.8 percent after deducting price factors. The number of rural migrant workers in 2016 totaled 281.71 million, which was 4.24 million more than last year, or up by 1.5 percent. Specifically, the numbers of local and outside migrant workers were 112.37 million and 169.34 million respectively, up by 3.4 and 0.3 percent. The average monthly income of migrant workers was 3,275 yuan, up by 6.6 percent.

 

 

8. The Supply-Side Structural Reform Achieved Positive Progress and the Economic Structure Continued to be Optimized.

 

The efforts of cutting overcapacity, reducing inventory, deleveraging, lowering costs and strengthening weak links have achieved notable results. The industries of steel and coal have successfully fulfilled the task of cutting overcapacity in 2016 and the output of coal in 2016 dropped by 9.4 percent over last year. At the end of November, the inventories of manufactured products of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 0.5 percent year-on-year, 4.1 percentage points slower than the same period last year. The inventories of commercial buildings continued to decrease, and at the end of December, the floor space of commercial buildings for sale was 23.14 million square meters less than that at the end of 2015. The asset-liability ratio and the cost of industrial enterprises both decreased to some extent. By the end of November, the asset-liability ratio of the industrial enterprises above the designated size was 56.1 percent, 0.6 percentage point lower than the same period last year. For the first eleven months, the cost for per-hundred-yuan turnover of principal activities of the industrial enterprises above the designated size was 85.76 yuan, 0.14 yuan less compared with the same period last year. Investment in weak areas grew rapidly. In 2016, investment in ecological protection and treatment of environmental pollution went up by 39.9 percent over last year; management of water conservancy up by 20.4 percent; agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery up by 19.5 percent; 31.8 percentage points, 12.3 percentage points and 11.4 percentage points faster than the total investment.

 

The economic structure continued to transform and upgrade. The industrial structure was optimized and transformed. In 2016, the value added of the tertiary industry accounted for 51.6 percent of GDP, 1.4 percentage points higher over last year, 11.8 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry. The demand structure was further improved. In 2016, the contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP accounted for 64.6 percent. The strategy of innovation-driven development was further implemented, and series achievements in areas like space station, spacecraft, rockets, quantum communication, high-speed computing, space detection, and large aircraft kept emerging. The new driving forces grew fast. The value-added of strategic emerging industries went up by 10.5 percent over last year, 4.5 percentage points higher than that of industrial enterprises above the designated size. Solid progress was made in business startups and innovation by the general public. The number of newly registered enterprises nationwide was 5.53 million, up by 24.5 percent over last year, an average of 15 thousand each day. The business climate index of industrial enterprises of small and micro size picked up. The business climate indexes from the first quarter to the fourth quarter were 87.2, 90.6, 92.0 and 93.3 respectively. Notable progress was made in energy conservation and consumption reduction. In 2016, the energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 5.0 percent over last year. In particular, the percentage of clean energy consumption, including the consumption of hydropower, wind power, nuclear power and natural gas increased by 1.6 percentage points over last year.

 

9. Money Supply and Credit Maintained a Steady Growth and Newly Increased Loans Grew Year-on-year.

 

By the end of December, the balance of broad money (M2) was 155.01 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.3 percent compared with that at the end of last year; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 48.66 trillion yuan, a rise of 21.4 percent; and the balance of cash in circulation (M0) was 6.83 trillion yuan, a rise of 8.1 percent. At the end of December, the amount of outstanding loans was 106.6 trillion yuan, while the amount of outstanding deposits was 150.59 trillion yuan. In 2016, the newly increased loans reached 12.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 925.7 billion yuan over last year; the newly increased deposits were 14.88 trillion yuan, or 92.4 billion yuan less than last year. The social financing reached 17.8 trillion yuan.

 

10. Population Increased Steadily with Rising Urbanization Rate

 

By the end of 2016, the total population of mainland China was 1,382.71 million (including population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, and servicemen in CPLA; but not including residents in Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR, Taiwan Province and overseas Chinese), an increase of 8.09 million over that at the end of 2015. In 2016, the number of births was 17.86 million, an increase of 1.31 million and the birth rate was 12.95 in a thousand; the number of deaths was 9.77 million with a death rate of 7.09 in a thousand; the natural growth rate was 5.86 in a thousand, an increase of 0.9 in a thousand. In terms of gender, the male population was 708.15 million, and female population was 674.56 million; the sex ratio of the total population was 104.98 (the female is 100). Population at the working age of 16-59 (inclusive) was 907.47 million, accounting for 65.6 percent of the total population; population aged 60 and over was 230.86 million, which was 16.7 percent of the total population; population aged 65 and over was 150.03 million, accounting for 10.8 percent of the total population. In terms of urban-rural structure, the usual residents in urban areas was 792.98 million, an increase of 21.82 million over last year; and the usual residents in rural areas was 589.73 million, a decrease of 13.73 million. The proportion of the urban population to the total population (urbanization rate) was 57.35 percent. The population who reside in areas other than their household registration and have been away from there for over 6 months reached 292 million, which was 2.03 million less than that in the last year. Specifically, the floating population was 245 million, or 1.71 million less than that at the end of 2015. At the end of 2016, the total number of employed persons was 776.03 million and the number of urban employed persons was 414.28 million.

 

Generally speaking, China’s economy was within a proper range with improved quality and efficiency. However, we should also be aware that the domestic and external conditions are still complicated and severe, and the foundation for a stabilized but progressing economy should be further consolidated. We should rally closer around the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China headed by General Secretary Xi Jinping as the core, carefully implement the decisions and arrangements made by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, as well as the spirit of Central Economic Working Conference, follow the general principle of making progress while working to keep performance stable. We should put improvement of quality and efficiency at the central place, stick to the general guidelines of stable macro-policy, precise industrial policy, flexible micro-policy, practical reform policy and solid social policy. We should insist on supply-side structural reform as the mainline, appropriately expand the aggregate demand, strengthen the guidance towards social expectations, deepen the role of innovation in driving development, and fully carry out the work of stabilizing growth, stimulating reform, adjusting structure, benefiting people’s livelihood and fending off risks so as to maintain the stable and healthy development of the economy, promote social harmony and stability, and celebrate the great success of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China with our best performance.

 

Notes:

 

1. The growth rate of gross domestic product, value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are real growth by using comparable prices. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.

 

2. According to the auto-revision function of the seasonal adjustment model, GDP in each quarter and the month-on-month changes of the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households), and total retail sales of consumer goods have been revised. The revised figures and figure for the fourth quarter GDP in 2016 as well as the month-on-month changes for other indicators in December 2016 are as follows:

 

The quarter-on-quarter growth of GDP in 2015 and 2016 were 2.0 percent, 1.7 percent, 1.8 percent, 1.5 percent, 1.3 percent, 1.9 percent, 1.8 percent and 1.7 percent respectively.

 

Month-on-Month Changes in 2016

 

Value Added of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size

(%)

Investment in Fixed  Assets (Excluding Rural Households)

(%)

Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods

(%)

 

 

 

 

January

0.45

0.75

0.82

February

0.43

0.65

0.79

March

0.64

0.87

0.88

April

0.43

0.60

0.85

May

0.45

0.63

0.83

June

0.50

0.66

0.95

July

0.51

0.54

0.79

August

0.52

0.62

0.93

September

0.46

0.68

0.88

October

0.49

0.62

0.75

November

0.51

0.57

0.98

December

0.46

0.53

0.89

 

 

 

 

 

3. Industrial enterprises above the designated size are industrial enterprises with annual revenue from principal activities over 20 million yuan.

 

4. Units above the designated size in total retail sales of consumer goods include wholesale enterprises, retail enterprises and lodging and catering enterprises with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan, 5 million yuan and 2 million yuan respectively.

 

Online retail sales refer to the total retail sales of goods and services realized through internet trading platforms (including self-built websites and third-party platforms). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (e.g. virtual goods and services etc.).

 

The total retail sales of consumer goods include the online retail sales of physical goods, but not the non-physical goods. 

 

5. The median of per capita income of urban and rural households refer to the per capita income of household lied in the middle of all surveyed households which are ranked from low to high based on per capital income level.

 

The income of urban and rural households by quintiles refer to the per capita income of surveyed households which are divided into five levels averagely, ranking from low to high based on per capital income level; the top 20 percent households with the highest income are classified as high-income group. The other four levels are upper-middle-income group, middle-income group, lower-middle-income group and low-income group.

 

6. The growth rates of per capita disposable income of urban and rural households are slower than that of the nationwide due to increased urbanization rate. As when people moving from rural areas where the income is lower to urban areas where the income is higher, this part of people’s income will pull down the average income of both urban and rural households.

 

7. Migrant workers refer to those who work in urban areas, or in the non-agriculture sectors in local or other areas for 6 months and above with their permanent household registrations being in rural areas. Local migrant workers refer to those who work in the administration area where they register their households permanently. Outside migrant workers refer to those who work in areas other than the administration area where they register their households permanently.

 

8. Floating population refers to the population who live in places other than their household registration excluding those with current residence different from the place of their household registration but still in the same city. Population who live in places other than their household registration but still in the same city refer to those whose current residences are different from the registered towns or streets in the same district or in different districts but still in the same municipality or prefecture-level city.

 

9. Employed persons refer to persons aged 16 and over who have the ability to work and engage in gainful employment for remuneration payment or business income.

 

10. Data of imports and exports are from the General Administration of Customs; data of money supply and deposits and loans and social financing are from the People’s Bank of China.

 

11. Due to the rounding-off reasons, the subentries may not add up to the aggregate totals.

 

 

In case of any differences between English translation and the original Chinese text, the Chinese edition shall prevail.

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