China's Non-manufacturing PMI was 54.0 Percent in October

National Bureau of Statistics of China 2016-11-01 16:22 Print| Large| Medium| Small

Department of Service Statistics of NBS

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)

In October 2016, China's non-manufacturing purchasing manager index was 54.0 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month, and reached the peak since this year, showing that non-manufacturing industry kept expanding, and the growth rate continued to rise.

In view of different industries, non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of service industry was 52.6 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month, showing that the service industry continued to show a development momentum of advancing steadily. Of which, the indices of transport via railway, air transport, post, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, Internet, software and information technology services, were positioned in the high level of the range which above 55.0 percent, and the total enterprise business increased rapidly. The indices of water transport, capital market services, real estate, resident services and repair, were below the threshold, and the total enterprise business decreased. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of construction industry achieved 61.8 percent, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage point over the previous month, continued to be positioned in the high level of the range, and the production of construction industry kept fast growth.

New orders index was 50.9 percent, down by 0.5 percentage points over the previous month, having stayed in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and hit this year’s second highest point, indicating that the market demand of the non-manufacturing industry continued to rebound. In view of different industries, the new orders index of service industry was 50.4 percent, decreased 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, still higher than the threshold. The new orders index of construction industry was 54.2 percent, decreased 1.7 percentage points over the previous month, while continued to be higher than the threshold.

Input price index was 53.7 percent, up by 2.0 percentage points over the previous month, and reached the peak since this year, indicating that the input price during the process of production and operation of non-manufacturing enterprises continued to increase, and the amount of increase enlarged significantly. In view of different industries, the intermediate input price indices of service industry and construction industry were 53.2 and 56.5 percent respectively, both increased 2.0 percentage points over the previous month.

The sales price index was 51.5 percent, up by 1.4 percentage points over last month, having stayed above the threshold for three consecutive months, indicating that the overall level of non-manufacturing sales price continued to increase. In view of different industries, the sales price index of service industry was 51.3 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the previous month. The sales price index of construction industry was 52.4 percent, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over the previous month.

Employment index was 50.0 percent, increased 0.3 percentage points over the previous month, stayed at the threshold, indicating the labor employment of non-manufacturing enterprises turned decrease to equality. In view of different industries, the employment index of service industry was 49.3 percent, kept at the same level over the previous month. The employment index of construction industry was 53.9 percent, an increase of 1.7 percentage points over the previous month, and was the peak in this year.

Business activities expectation index was 60.6 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points over last month, but was still positioned in the high level of the range, showing that enterprises continued to remain optimistic about the recent market development.

Main Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally adjusted)
Unit: %
	Non-manufacturing PMI	New Orders Index	Input Price Index	Sales Price Index	Employment Index	Business Activities Expectation Index

2015-October	53.1	51.2	51.2	48.8	49.6	61.1
November	53.6	50.2	49.3	47.7	48.4	60.0
December	54.4	51.7	49.0	48.2	48.9	58.3
2016-January	53.5	49.6	49.9	47.7	48.8	58.4
February	52.7	48.7	50.5	48.3	48.9	59.5
March	53.8	50.8	51.4	49.5	48.2	59.0
April	53.5	48.7	52.1	49.1	49.2	59.1
May	53.1	49.2	51.6	49.8	49.1	57.8
June	53.7	50.8	51.6	50.6	48.7	58.6
July	53.9	49.9	51.4	49.5	48.5	59.5
August	53.5	49.8	52.6	50.4	49.1	59.4
September	53.7	51.4	51.7	50.1	49.7	61.1
October	54.0	50.9	53.7	51.5	50.0	60.6

Other Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally adjusted)
Unit: %
	Foreign New Orders Index	Unfilled Orders Index	Stock Index	Supplier Delivery Time Index

2015-October	49.5	43.5	45.9	51.6
November	49.4	44.4	46.6	51.2
December	50.9	44.5	45.5	52.1
2016-January	47.3	43.9	45.8	51.9
February	47.7	42.9	45.4	51.6
March	47.8	43.4	45.9	51.4
April	45.7	43.6	45.4	51.8
May	49.5	43.6	45.6	51.4
June	48.6	43.1	46.0	52.3
July	47.5	42.8	46.3	51.9
August	48.8	43.0	45.5	51.7
September	48.3	43.6	45.9	52.0
October	51.4	44.0	45.3	51.4

Annotations:

1. Explanatory Notes

China non-manufacturing purchasing manager index system constituted by 10 sub-indices, they are business activity index, new orders index, new export orders index in hand orders index, stock index, input price index, sales price index, employment index, supplier delivery time index, and business activities expectation index. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development, A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates expansion from the previous month, while below indicates contraction.

2. Statistical Coverage

The statistical coverage has been adjusted since June 2015. Non-manufacturing industry divisions in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities" (GB/T4754-2011) were extended to 31 from original 27, and sampling enterprises were extended to 4000 from original 1200.

3. Survey Methods

Non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey was conducted in PPS ( Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, using the non-manufacturing sectors as the selecting layers, distribution of sample size was according to their value-added accounted for the proportion of total non-manufacturing value-added, and samples within layers and the main business revenue of the enterprises were selected by the PPS.

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

4. Calculation Methods

Non-manufacturing purchasing managers survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. Diffusion index was calculated on each question, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers.

5. Seasonal Adjustment Note

The purchasing managers survey is a monthly survey, great fluctuations of data which affected by seasonal factors. The sub-indices of non-manufacturing PMI data released currently were all seasonally adjusted.