National Economy Grew Steadily with Progress Made and Quality Improved in the First Three Quarters of 2016

 National Bureau of Statistics of China

19 October 2016

In the first three quarters of 2016, in face with the complicated and challenging domestic and external conditions, under the leadership of the Central Party Committee and the State Council, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the new concepts of development, actively accommodated and led the new normal, adhered to the general working guideline of making progress while maintaining stability, appropriately expanded the aggregate demand, unswervingly advanced the supply-side structural reform, steered to the positive development anticipation and accelerated the fostering of new drivers. As a result, the national economy grew steadily with progress made and quality improved. The general performance was better than expected. 

According to the preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the first three quarters of this year was 52,997.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7 percent at comparable prices. Specifically, the year-on-year growth was 6.7 percent for the first quarter, 6.7 percent for the second quarter and 6.7 percent for the third quarter. The value added of the primary industry was 4,066.6 billion yuan, up by 3.5 percent year-on-year; that of the secondary industry was 20,941.5 billion yuan, up by 6.1 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 27,989.0 billion yuan, up by 7.6 percent. The gross domestic product of the third quarter of 2016 went up by 1.8 percent on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

1. Agricultural Production was Generally Stable and Autumn Grain Showed Good Growth.

The total output of summer grain was 139.26 million tons, a decrease of 1.62 million tons, down by 1.2 percent, which registered the second high in history. The output of early rice was 32.78 million tons, a decrease of 910 thousand tons, down by 2.7 percent. The autumn grain production is expected to get a good harvest. In the first three quarters of 2016, the total output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry reached 58.33 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1 percent. The output of pork reached 36.90 million tons, down by 3.6 percent. There were 431.63 million pigs registered, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4 percent and 479.24 million pigs slaughtered, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7 percent

2. Industrial Production Grew Steadily with Significant Improvement of Enterprise Efficiency.

The total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size in the first three quarters was up by 6.0 percent year-on-year at comparable prices, the same level as that in the first half of the year. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added of state holding enterprises went up by 1.0 percent year-on-year; collective enterprises up by 0.7 percent; share-holding enterprises up by 6.9 percent; and enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan up by 4.2 percent. In terms of sectors, the value added of mining industry was down by 0.4 percent year-on-year; manufacturing up by 6.9 percent and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water up by 4.3 percent. The industrial structure continued to be improved. In the first three quarters, the value added of high-tech industry and equipment manufacturing industry grew by 10.6 percent and 9.1 percent year-on-year respectively, 4.6 percentage points and 3.1 percentage points higher than that of the industrial enterprises above designated size as a whole, accounting for 12.2 percent and 32.6 percent of the value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size, an increase of 0.6 percentage point and 1.2 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The sales ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 97.5 percent. The export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 8,595.0 billion yuan, down by 0.1 percent. In September, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size was up by 6.1 percent year-on-year, or 0.47 percent month-on-month.

In the first eight months of this year, the profits made by industrial enterprises above designated size stood at 4,058.4 billion yuan, up by 8.4 percent year-on-year, 2.2 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year. Specifically, the profits grew by 19.5 percent in August, 8.5 percentage points higher than that in the previous month. The costs for per-hundred-yuan turnover of primary activities of the industrial enterprises above designated size reached 85.87 yuan, and the profit rate from primary activities was 5.66 percent.

3. The Growth of Investment in Fixed Assets Went Stabilized and the Floor Space of Commercial Buildings for Sale Continued to Decrease.

In the first three quarters of 2016, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 42,690.6 billion yuan, a nominal year-on-year growth of 8.2 percent (a real growth of 9.5 percent after deducting price factors), 0.8 percentage point lower than that in the first half of the year. However, the investment in July, August and September grew by 3.9 percent, 8.2 percent and 9.0 percent respectively, witnessing an accelerated growth for two consecutive months. The investment by state holding enterprises reached 15,161.7 billion yuan, an increase of 21.1 percent; private investment reached 26,193.4 billion yuan, up by 2.5 percent, or 0.4 percentage point higher than that in the first eight months, accounting for 61.4 percent of the total investment. The investment in the primary industry reached 1,340.2 billion yuan, up by 21.8 percent year-on-year; that in the secondary industry was 16,749.7 billion yuan, up by 3.3 percent; and that in the tertiary industry was 24,600.8 billion yuan, up by 11.1 percent. Specifically, the investment in infrastructure was 8,324.5 billion yuan, up by 19.4 percent. The funds in place for investment in fixed assets in the first three quarters of 2016 were 44,223.8 billion yuan, up by 5.9 percent year-on-year. The total planned investment in newly-started projects was 36,766.3 billion yuan, an increase of 22.6 percent. In September, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) went up by 0.52 percent month-on-month.

In the first three quarters of 2016, the total investment in real estate development was 7,459.8 billion yuan, a nominal year-on-year growth of 5.8 percent (a real growth of 7.1 percent after deducting price factors), 0.3 percentage point lower than that in the first half of the year, or 0.4 percentage point higher than that in the first eight months. Of this total, the investment in residential buildings went up by 5.1 percent. Floor space of houses newly started in the first three quarters was 1,226.55 million square meters, up by 6.8 percent year-on-year. Specifically, the floor space of residential buildings newly started increased by 6.7 percent. The floor space of commercial buildings sold reached 1,051.85 million square meters, up by 26.9 percent year-on-year. Of this total, that of residential buildings went up by 27.1 percent. The sales of commercial buildings were 8,020.8 billion yuan, up by 41.3 percent year-on-year. Of this total, that of residential buildings grew by 43.2 percent. In the first three quarters of this year, the land space purchased by real estate development enterprises was 149.17 million square meters, down by 6.1 percent. By the end of September, the floor space of commercial buildings for sale reached 696.12 million square meters, 18.04 million square meters less than that at the end of June. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises in the first three quarters reached 10,471.1 billion yuan, up by 15.5 percent year-on-year.

4. Market Sales Grew Steadily and Moderately while Upgraded Consumer Goods Enjoyed Rapid Growth.

In the first three quarters of 2016, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 23,848.2 billion yuan, a nominal year-on-year increase of 10.4 percent (a real growth of 9.8 percent after deducting price factors), or 0.1 percentage point higher than that in the first half of the year. Specifically, the retail sales of the units above designated size stood at 10,834.4 billion yuan, up by 7.8 percent. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales in urban areas reached 20,494.0 billion yuan, up by 10.3 percent, and that in rural areas stood at 3,354.2 billion yuan, up by 10.9 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the total income of catering industry was 2,561.4 billion yuan, up by 11.0 percent year-on-year; and retail sales of goods were 21,286.8 billion yuan, up by 10.3 percent. In particular, the retail sales of units above designated size reached 10,178.5 billion yuan, up by 7.9 percent. The categories of communication and housing saw rapid growth: communication equipments grew by 12.7 percent, furniture up by 13.9 percent and building and decoration materials increased by 15.4 percent. In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 10.7 percent year-on-year (a real growth of 9.6 percent after deducting price factors), 0.1 percentage point higher than August, or 0.85 percent month-on-month.

In the first three quarters of 2016, the online retail sales reached 3,465.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 26.1 percent, of which, the online retail sales of physical goods valued 2,795.0 billion yuan, an increase of 25.1 percent, accounting for 11.7 percent of the total retail sales.

5. The Decline in Imports and Exports Narrowed and the Proportion of General Trade Increased.

The total value of imports and exports in the first three quarters of 2016 was 17,531.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.9 percent year-on-year, or 1.7 percentage points lower than that in the first half of the year. The total value of exports was 10,058.5 billion yuan, dropped by 1.6 percent, 1.1 percentage points lower; and that of imports was 7,473.3 billion yuan, down by 2.3 percent, 2.4 percentage points lower. The trade surplus was 2,585.2 billion yuan. In September, the total value of imports and exports was 2,167.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4 percent. Of the total, the value of exports was 1,223.1 billion yuan, down by 5.6 percent; and that of imports was 944.8 billion yuan, up by 2.2 percent. The trade structure was improved. In the first three quarters, the value of imports and exports of general trade accounted for 56 percent of the total, an increase of 1.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The export of mechanical and electronical products accounted for 57 percent of the total value of exports, making them the major exported goods. Exports by private enterprises increased by 2.3 percent, accounted for 46.5 percent of the total value of exports, continuing to rank the first in terms of business entities. The exports to some of the countries along the “Belt and Road” increased. In the first three quarters, the exports to Pakistan, Russia, Poland, Bangladesh and India increased by 14.9 percent, 14 percent, 11.7 percent, 9.6 percent and 7.8 percent respectively. The imports of certain bulk commodities continued to grow. In the first three quarters, China imported 763 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 9.1 percent; 284 million tons of crude oil, an increase of 14 percent; 180 million tons of coal, an increase of 15.2 percent; and 3.79 million tons of copper, an increase of 11.8 percent.

6. The Consumer Price Rose Mildly and the Year-on-Year Growth of Producer Prices for Industrial Products Turned from Negative to Positive.

In the first three quarters of 2016, the consumer price went up by 2.0 percent year-on-year, or 0.1 percentage point lower than that in the first half of the year. Specifically, the price went up by 2.0 percent in urban areas and 1.8 percent in rural areas. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food, tobacco and liquor grew by 4.1 percent year-on-year; clothing up by 1.5 percent; housing went up by 1.5 percent; articles and services for daily use grew by 0.5 percent; transportation and communication decreased by 1.8 percent; education, culture and recreation grew by 1.4 percent; health care up by 3.6 percent; and other articles and services grew by 2.4 percent. In terms of food, tobacco and liquor prices, that for grain grew by 0.5 percent, pork up by 21.2 percent and fresh vegetables up by 12.3 percent. In September, the consumer price went up by 1.9 percent year-on-year, or 0.7 percent month-on-month. In the first three quarters, the producer prices for industrial products dropped by 2.9 percent year-on-year, or 1.0 percentage point lower than that in the first half of the year. In September, the prices grew by 0.1 percent year-on-year, which ended the downward trend of 54 consecutive months, or up by 0.5 percent month-on-month. The purchasing prices for industrial producers in the first three quarters went down by 3.8 percent year-on-year, those of September dropped by 0.6 percent year-on-year, or grew by 0.4 percent month-on-month.

7. Residents’ Income Increased Steadily and Urban-Rural Gap Continued to Narrow Down.

In the first three quarters of 2016, the national per capita disposable income was 17,735 yuan, a nominal growth of 8.4 percent year-on-year or a real increase of 6.3 percent after deducting price factors. In terms of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 25,337 yuan, a nominal growth of 7.8 percent year-on-year, or a real growth of 5.7 percent. The per capita disposable income of rural residents was 8,998 yuan, up by 8.4 percent nominally, or 6.5 percent in real terms. The per capita income of the urban residents was 2.82 times of that of the rural residents, 0.01 less than the same period last year. The median of the national per capita disposable income was 15,626 yuan, a nominal increase of 8.1 percent. By the end of the third quarter, the number of rural migrant workers was 176.49 million, which was 950 thousand more than the same period last year, or up by 0.5 percent. The average monthly income of migrant workers was 3,232 yuan, up by 5.9 percent year-on-year.

8. The Supply-Side Structural Reform Achieved Active Progress and the Quality and Efficiency of Development Improved Steadily.

The efforts of cutting overcapacity, reducing inventory, deleveraging, lowering costs and strengthening weak links achieved substantial results. In the first three quarters, the output of coal decreased by 10.5 percent year-on-year. The inventories of industrial enterprises and commercial buildings continued to drop. By the end of August, the inventories of finished products of the industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.6 percent year-on-year, registering decline for the fifth straight month since April. The floor space of commercial buildings for sale decreased for seven consecutive months since March. The asset-liability ratio and cost of industrial enterprises both dropped. By the end of August, the asset-liability ratio of the industrial enterprises above designated size was 56.4 percent, 0.6 percentage point lower than that in the same period of last year. In the first eight months, the cost for per-hundred-yuan turnover of primary activities of the industrial enterprises above designated size was 0.17 yuan less than that of the same period of last year. In the first three quarters, the investment in ecological protection and environment treatment, management of water conservancy and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery grew by 43.4 percent, 20.5 percent and 20.1 percent respectively year-on-year, 35.2 percentage points, 12.3 percentage points and 11.9 percentage points higher than that of the total investment.

The industrial structure continued to be upgraded. In the first three quarters, the value added of the tertiary industry accounted for 52.8 percent of the GDP, 1.6 percentage points higher than that in the same period of last year or 13.3 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry. The structure of demand was further improved. In the first three quarters, the final consumption expenditure’s contribution to the GDP growth was 71.0 percent, or 13.3 percentage points higher than that in the same period of last year. New economy developed rapidly. The value added of strategic emerging industries grew by 10.8 percent year-on-year, or 4.8 percentage points higher than that of the industrial enterprises above designated size. Energy conservation and consumption reduction made great progress. In the first three quarters, the energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 5.2 percent year-on-year. The proportion of clean energy consumption such as hydro, wind, nuclear power and natural gas was 19.3 percent, 1.7 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

In general, with the comprehensive effects of appropriate expansion of aggregate demand, supply-side structural reform policies and positive development anticipation, the national economy maintained steady growth with progress made and quality improved in the first three quarters of 2016. However, we must be aware that the economic development is still in a critical period of transformation and upgrading, with old drivers of growths to be replaced by new ones. With a number of unstable and uncertain domestic and external factors interacted, the foundation of continued economic growth is not solid enough. In the next stage, in accordance with the overall plan for promoting all-round economic, political, cultural, social and ecological progress and the four-pronged comprehensive strategy, we will continue to lead the new normal with new development concepts, unswervingly advance the supply-side structural reform, appropriately expand the aggregate demand, adopt scientific measures to stabilize economic growth, promote reforms, enhance restructuring, benefit people and control risks, earnestly implement the policies and reform measures, and work hard to consolidate the positive changes, so as to ensure the achievement of this year’s target. 

Notes:

1. The growth rate of value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are real growth by using comparable prices. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified. 

2. According to the auto-revision function of the seasonal adjustment model, GDP in each quarter and the month-on-month changes of the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households), and total retail sales of consumer goods have been revised. The revised figures and figures for quarter-on-quarter GDP for the third quarter of 2016 and other indicators for September 2016 are as follows:

The quarter-on-quarter growth of GDP in each quarter of 2015 and in the first, second and third quarters of 2016 were 1.6 percent, 1.9 percent, 1.7 percent, 1.6 percent, 1.2 percent, 1.9 percent and 1.8 percent respectively.

3. Industrial enterprises above designated size are industrial enterprises with annual revenue from primary activities over 20 million yuan.

4. Units above designated size in total retail sales of consumer goods include wholesale enterprises, retail enterprises and lodging and catering enterprises with annual revenue from primary activities over 20 million yuan, 5 million yuan and 2 million yuan respectively.

The online retail sales refer to the retail sales of goods and services realized through internet trading platforms (including self-built websites and third-party platforms). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (e.g. virtual goods and services).

The total retail sales of consumer goods include the online retail sales of physical goods, excluding that of non-physical goods.

5. The median of national per capita disposable income refers to the per capita disposable income of households which lies in the middle of all surveyed households ranked from low to high on the basis of per capita disposable income level.

6. Rural migrant workers refer to the rural labor force who obtained employment outside their registered towns and townships at the reference time of the survey.

7. Data of imports and exports are from the General Administration of Customs.

8. Due to the rounding-off reasons, the subentries may not add up to the aggregate totals.

In case of any differences between English translation and the original Chinese text, the Chinese edition shall prevail.