China's Non-manufacturing PMI was 54.4 Percent in December
National Bureau of Statistics of China2016-01-05 14:31




Department of Service Statistics of NBS

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)

 

In December 2015, non-manufacturing purchasing manager index was 54.4 percent, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over the previous month, registering a peak in this year, and the expansion incentives were strong.

 

 

 

In view of different industries, non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of service industry was 53.7 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the previous month, and has increased for two consecutive months. Of which, the indices of retail trade, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, Internet, software and information technology services, loading, unloading and portage, storage, post, finance were obviously higher than the threshold, and the total enterprise business increased rapidly; the indices of transport, accommodation and restaurants were below the threshold, and the total enterprise business declined. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of construction industry achieved 58.3 percent, up by 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, and the production continued to maintain rapid growth.

 

New orders index was 51.7 percent, up by 1.5 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that the market demand of non-manufacturing industry increased. In view of different industries, the new orders index of service industry was 51.2 percent, increased 0.9 percentage points over the previous month. The new orders index of construction industry was 55.0 percent, increased 5.5 percentage points over the previous month, and rose above the threshold, indicating that the market demand of construction industry rebounded.

 

Input price index was 49.0 percent, down by 0.3 percentage points over last month, indicating that the input price during the process of production and operation of non-manufacturing enterprises continued to decrease. In view of different industries, the intermediate input price index of service industry was 49.5 percent, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point over the previous month. The input price index of construction industry was 46.1 percent, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points over the previous month.  

 

The sales price index was 48.2 percent, 0.5 percentage points higher over last month, and was still below the threshold, indicating that the overall level of non-manufacturing sales price continued to drop, while the pace of decline narrowed. In view of different industries, the sales price index of service industry was 47.9 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over the previous month. The sales price index of construction industry was 49.5 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month.

 

Employment index was 48.9 percent, increased 0.5 percentage points over the previous month, indicating the labor employment of non-manufacturing enterprises continued to decrease, while the pace of decline narrowed. In view of different industries, the employment index of service industry was 48.2 percent, a small increase of 0.1 percentage point over the previous month. The employment index of construction industry was 52.6 percent, an increase of 2.3 percentage points over the previous month.

 

Business activities expectation index was 58.3 percent, went down by 1.7 percentage points over last month, but was still positioned in the high level of the range.

 

Main Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally adjusted)

Unit: %

 

Non-manufacturing PMI

New Orders Index

Input Price Index

Sales Price Index

Employment Index

Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2014-December

54.1

50.5

50.1

47.3

49.1

59.5

2015-January

53.7

50.2

47.6

46.9

50.3

59.6

February

53.9

51.2

52.5

51.2

49.8

58.7

March

53.7

50.3

50.0

48.4

49.0

58.8

April

53.4

49.1

50.8

48.9

48.9

60.0

May

53.2

49.5

52.8

50.4

47.6

60.1

June

53.8

51.3

50.6

48.7

49.7

59.7

July

53.9

50.1

48.9

47.4

49.2

60.0

August

53.4

49.6

49.6

47.8

49.5

59.7

September

53.4

50.2

50.8

47.9

49.5

60.0

October

53.1

51.2

51.2

48.8

49.6

61.1

November

53.6

50.2

49.3

47.7

48.4

60.0

December

54.4

51.7

49.0

48.2

48.9

58.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally adjusted)

Unit: %

 

Foreign New Orders Index

Unfilled Orders Index

Stock Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

 

 

 

 

 

2014-December

52.9

46.7

46.7

51.4

2015-January

53.3

45.4

46.5

51.6

February

52.1

46.5

47.8

51.5

March

51.5

43.1

47.2

52.0

April

49.7

44.2

46.4

52.5

May

47.9

43.7

46.8

52.0

June

50.1

44.7

47.0

51.9

July

46.2

43.4

46.7

51.9

August

46.6

43.7

45.8

51.7

September

51.1

43.7

46.1

51.7

October

49.5

43.5

45.9

51.6

November

49.4

44.4

46.6

51.2

December

50.9

44.5

45.5

52.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annotations:

 

1. Explanatory Notes

 

China non-manufacturing purchasing manager index system constituted by 10 sub-indices, they are business activity index, new orders index, new export orders index in hand orders index, stock index, input price index, sales price index, employment index, supplier delivery time index, and business activities expectation index. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development, A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates expansion from the previous month, while below indicates contraction.

 

2. Statistical Coverage

 

The statistical coverage has been adjusted since June 2015. Non-manufacturing industry divisions in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities" (GB/T4754-2011) were extended to 31 from original 27, and sampling enterprises were extended to 4000 from original 1200.

 

3. Survey Methods

 

Non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey was conducted in PPS ( Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, using the non-manufacturing sectors as the selecting layers, distribution of sample size was according to their value-added accounted for the proportion of total non-manufacturing value-added, and samples within layers and the main business revenue of the enterprises were selected by the PPS.

 

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

 

4. Calculation Methods

 

Non-manufacturing purchasing managers survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. Diffusion index was calculated on each question, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers.

 

5. Seasonal Adjustment Note

 

The purchasing managers survey is a monthly survey, great fluctuations of data which affected by seasonal factors. At present, time series of China's non-manufacturing PMI have met the technical requirements of the seasonally adjustment, and the sub-indices of non-manufacturing PMI data on seasonally adjusted will be released since March 2012.

 

6. Explanation on Release Date Change

 

Since 2015, non-manufacturing PMI data will be released on the 1st of each month, which was originally on the 3rd of each month. At the same time, in order to make it easier for the public to understand the meaning of related indicators, the original “intermediate input price index” was changed to “input prices index”, and the original “subscription price index” was changed to “sales prices index”.

 

 

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