China's PMI Was 49.7 Percent in December
National Bureau of Statistics of China2016-01-05 14:28




Department of Service Statistics of NBS

China Federation of Logistics and Purchases (CFLP)

 

In December 2015, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 49.7 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage point over last month.

 

 

 

In view of the sizes of enterprises, the PMI of large-sized enterprises was 50.9 percent, decreased 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, but continued to maintain a expanding trend; that of medium-sized was 49.6 percent, increased 1.3 percentage points month-on-month, still stayed below the threshold; that of small-sized enterprises was 44.9 percent, slightly increased 0.1 percentage point month-on-month, and continued to stay in the contraction range. 

 

Among the five sub-indices composing PMI, the production index, new orders index and supplier delivery time index were higher than the threshold. The employed person index and main raw materials inventory index were lower than the threshold.

 

Production index was 52.2 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, and was higher than the threshold, indicating that the growth of manufacturing production increased.

 

New orders index was 50.2 percent, increased 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, and went back above the threshold, showing that the market demand of manufacturing sector rose again.

 

Employed person index was 47.4 percent, decreased 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, and was still below the threshold, indicating that the labor employment of manufacturing enterprises reduced.

 

Main raw materials inventory index was 47.6 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over last month, still below the threshold, indicating that the pace of decline of inventory of manufacturing main raw material narrowed.

 

Supplier delivery time index was 50.7 percent, and was higher than the threshold, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing raw material suppliers was accelerated.

 

China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

PMI

 

Production Index

New Orders Index

Main Raw Materials Inventory Index

Employed Person Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2014-December

50.1

52.2

50.4

47.5

48.1

49.9

2015-January

49.8

51.7

50.2

47.3

47.9

50.2

February

49.9

51.4

50.4

48.2

47.8

49.9

March

50.1

52.1

50.2

48.0

48.4

50.1

April

50.1

52.6

50.2

48.2

48.0

50.4

May

50.2

52.9

50.6

48.2

48.2

50.9

June

50.2

52.9

50.1

48.7

48.1

50.3

July

50.0

52.4

49.9

48.4

48.0

50.4

August

49.7

51.7

49.7

48.3

47.9

50.6

September

49.8

52.3

50.2

47.5

47.9

50.8

October

49.8

52.2

50.3

47.2

47.8

50.6

November

49.6

51.9

49.8

47.1

47.6

50.6

December

49.7

52.2

50.2

47.6

47.4

50.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Related Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

New Export Orders Index

Import Index

Purchase Quantity Index

Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index

Finished Goods Inventory Index

Open Orders Index

Production And Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2014-December

49.1

47.8

50.1

43.2

47.8

43.8

48.7

2015-January

48.4

46.4

49.6

41.9

48.0

44.0

47.4

February

48.5

47.5

49.4

43.9

47.0

43.8

54.0

March

48.3

48.1

49.7

45.0

48.6

44.1

61.3

April

48.1

47.8

50.1

47.8

48.0

43.8

59.5

May

48.9

47.6

51.0

49.4

47.5

44.7

56.8

June

48.2

48.0

50.9

47.3

47.7

44.6

52.2

July

47.9

47.8

50.3

44.7

47.4

44.0

52.9

August

47.7

47.2

49.4

44.9

47.2

44.6

54.1

September

47.9

48.1

48.6

45.8

46.8

43.8

53.9

October

47.4

47.5

48.8

44.4

47.2

44.4

52.5

November

46.4

46.7

48.3

41.1

46.7

43.0

48.3

December

47.5

47.6

50.3

42.4

46.1

43.6

44.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annotations:

 

1. Explanatory Notes

 

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the manufacturing economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the manufacturing economy is in recession.

 

2.Statistical Coverage

 

The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing sector in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2011). The survey sample was expanded from 820 to 3000 since January 2013.

 

3. Survey Methods

 

PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing sector as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing sector. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.

 

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

 

4. Calculation Methods

 

The questionnaire of manufacturing purchasing managers survey covers 12 questions related to production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase prices, raw materials, inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation and etc.. Diffusion index was calculated for each question, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers.

 

PMI is a composite index, which was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employees index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.

 

5. Seasonal adjustment

 

The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.

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