China's PMI Was 49.6 Percent in November
Department of Service Statistics of NBS
China Federation of Logistics and Purchases (CFLP)
In November 2015, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 49.6 percent, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points over last month.
In view of the sizes of enterprises, the PMI of large-sized enterprises was 51.2 percent, increased 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, and showed a steady trend in the expansion range; that of medium-sized and small-sized enterprises were 48.3 percent and 44.8 percent respectively, decreased 0.4 and 1.8 percentage points month-on-month respectively, and continued to stay below the threshold.
Among the five sub-indices composing PMI, the production index and supplier delivery time index continued to be higher than the threshold. The new orders index, employed person index and main raw materials inventory index were lower than the threshold.
Production index was 51.9 percent, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, and continued to stay above the threshold, indicating that the manufacturing production maintained growth, while the growth slowed down.
New orders index was 49.8 percent, decreased 0.5 percentage points month-on-month, and dropped below the threshold, showing that the market demand of manufacturing sector decreased.
Employed person index was 47.6 percent, decreased 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, and was still below the threshold, indicating that the labor employment of manufacturing enterprises reduced.
Main raw materials inventory index was 47.1 percent, a small decrease of 0.1 percentage point over last month, still below the threshold, indicating that the purchasing activity of manufacturing enterprises was lack of activeness, and the inventory of main raw material reduced.
Supplier delivery time index was 50.6 percent, and stayed above the threshold, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing raw material suppliers was accelerated.
| China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||
| Unit: % | ||||||
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| PMI |
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| Production Index | New Orders Index | Main Raw Materials Inventory Index | Employed Person Index | Supplier Delivery Time Index | ||
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| 2014-November | 50.3 | 52.5 | 50.9 | 47.7 | 48.2 | 50.3 |
| December | 50.1 | 52.2 | 50.4 | 47.5 | 48.1 | 49.9 |
| 2015-January | 49.8 | 51.7 | 50.2 | 47.3 | 47.9 | 50.2 |
| February | 49.9 | 51.4 | 50.4 | 48.2 | 47.8 | 49.9 |
| March | 50.1 | 52.1 | 50.2 | 48.0 | 48.4 | 50.1 |
| April | 50.1 | 52.6 | 50.2 | 48.2 | 48.0 | 50.4 |
| May | 50.2 | 52.9 | 50.6 | 48.2 | 48.2 | 50.9 |
| June | 50.2 | 52.9 | 50.1 | 48.7 | 48.1 | 50.3 |
| July | 50.0 | 52.4 | 49.9 | 48.4 | 48.0 | 50.4 |
| August | 49.7 | 51.7 | 49.7 | 48.3 | 47.9 | 50.6 |
| September | 49.8 | 52.3 | 50.2 | 47.5 | 47.9 | 50.8 |
| October | 49.8 | 52.2 | 50.3 | 47.2 | 47.8 | 50.6 |
| November | 49.6 | 51.9 | 49.8 | 47.1 | 47.6 | 50.6 |
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| Related Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted) | |||||||
| Unit: % | |||||||
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| New Export Orders Index | Import Index | Purchase Quantity Index | Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index | Finished Goods Inventory Index | Open Orders Index | Production And Business Activities Expectation Index |
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| 2014-November | 48.4 | 47.3 | 50.5 | 44.7 | 47.2 | 43.9 | 52.2 |
| December | 49.1 | 47.8 | 50.1 | 43.2 | 47.8 | 43.8 | 48.7 |
| 2015-January | 48.4 | 46.4 | 49.6 | 41.9 | 48.0 | 44.0 | 47.4 |
| February | 48.5 | 47.5 | 49.4 | 43.9 | 47.0 | 43.8 | 54.0 |
| March | 48.3 | 48.1 | 49.7 | 45.0 | 48.6 | 44.1 | 61.3 |
| April | 48.1 | 47.8 | 50.1 | 47.8 | 48.0 | 43.8 | 59.5 |
| May | 48.9 | 47.6 | 51.0 | 49.4 | 47.5 | 44.7 | 56.8 |
| June | 48.2 | 48.0 | 50.9 | 47.3 | 47.7 | 44.6 | 52.2 |
| July | 47.9 | 47.8 | 50.3 | 44.7 | 47.4 | 44.0 | 52.9 |
| August | 47.7 | 47.2 | 49.4 | 44.9 | 47.2 | 44.6 | 54.1 |
| September | 47.9 | 48.1 | 48.6 | 45.8 | 46.8 | 43.8 | 53.9 |
| October | 47.4 | 47.5 | 48.8 | 44.4 | 47.2 | 44.4 | 52.5 |
| November | 46.4 | 46.7 | 48.3 | 41.1 | 46.7 | 43.0 | 48.3 |
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Annotations:
1. Explanatory Notes
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the manufacturing economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the manufacturing economy is in recession.
2.Statistical Coverage
The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing sector in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2011). The survey sample was expanded from 820 to 3000 since January 2013.
3. Survey Methods
PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing sector as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing sector. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.
The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.
4. Calculation Methods
The questionnaire of manufacturing purchasing managers survey covers 12 questions related to production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase prices, raw materials, inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation and etc.. Diffusion index was calculated for each question, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers.
PMI is a composite index, which was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employees index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.
5. Seasonal adjustment
The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.