Overall Economic Development was Stable in the First Three Quarters of 2015
National Bureau of Statistics of China2015-10-19 10:00




National Bureau of Statistics of China

19 October 2015

 

In the first three quarters of 2015, as the recovery of the world economy was weaker than expected, China was facing increasing downward pressure of domestic economic development. Under the tough situation, the Central Party Committee and the State Council took full consideration of domestic and global situations, adopted scientific measures to stabilize economic growth, promote reforms, enhance restructuring, benefit people and control risks, implemented effective range-based, targeted and discretionary macro regulation, further deepened the reform and opening up, encouraged mass entrepreneurship and innovation and increased supply of public goods and services. As a result, the overall performance of national economy was stable and moving in a positive direction.

 

According to the preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the first three quarters of this year was 48,777.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9 percent at comparable prices. Specifically, the year-on-year growth was 7.0 percent for the first quarter, 7.0 percent for the second quarter and 6.9 percent for the third quarter. The value added of the primary industry was 3,919.5 billion yuan, up by 3.8 percent year-on-year; that of the secondary industry was 19,779.9 billion yuan, up by 6.0 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 25,077.9 billion yuan, up by 8.4 percent. The gross domestic product of the third quarter of 2015 went up by 1.8 percent on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

 

1. Agricultural Production Showed Good Momentum.

 

The total output of summer grain was 141.07 million tons, an increase of 4.47 million tons, up by 3.3 percent. The output of early rice was 33.69 million tons, a decrease of 320 thousand tons, down by 0.9 percent. The autumn grain production is expected to get a good harvest again. In the first three quarters of 2015, the total output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry reached 58.96 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3 percent. The output of pork reached 38.28 million tons, down by 3.6 percent.

 

2. The Growth of Industrial Production Went Stabilized.

 

The total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size in the first three quarters was up by 6.2 percent at comparable prices, or 0.1 percentage point lower than that in the first half of the year. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added growth of state holding enterprises went up by 1.3 percent; collective enterprises up by 1.7 percent; share-holding enterprises up by 7.5 percent; and enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan provinces up by 3.5 percent. In terms of sectors, the value added growth for mining industry was up by 3.3 percent year-on-year; manufacturing up by 7.0 percent and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water up by 1.7 percent. Out of the 565 kinds of industrial products, 288 kinds registered year-on-year increases in output. In the first three quarters, the sales ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 97.5 percent. The export delivery value of the industrial enterprises above designated size reached 8,618.7 billion yuan, down by 1.1 percent. In September, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size was up by 5.7 percent year-on-year, or 0.38 percent month-on-month.

 

In the first eight months of this year, the profits made by industrial enterprises above designated size stood at 3,766.3 billion yuan, down by 1.9 percent year-on-year. The costs for per-hundred-yuan turnover of primary activities of the industrial enterprises above designated size reached 86.13 yuan, and the profit rate from primary activities was 5.38 percent.

 

3. The Growth of Investment in Fixed Assets Slowed Down.

 

In the first three quarters of 2015, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 39,453.1 billion yuan, a nominal year-on-year growth of 10.3 percent (a real growth of 12.0 percent after deducting price factors), or 1.1 percentage points lower than that in the first half of the year. Of this total, the investment by state holding enterprises reached 12,520.1 billion yuan, an increase of 11.4 percent; private investment reached 25,561.4 billion yuan, up by 10.4 percent, accounting for 64.8 percent of the total investment. The investment in the primary industry reached 1,100.7 billion yuan, up by 27.4 percent year-on-year; that in the secondary industry was 16,218.9 billion yuan, up by 8.0 percent; and that in the tertiary industry was 22,133.5 billion yuan, up by 11.2 percent. The amount in place for investment in the first three quarters of 2015 was 41,771.7 billion yuan, up by 6.8 percent. Specifically, the state budget went up by 20.5 percent, domestic loans dropped by 4.4 percent, self-raising funds increased by 8.2 percent and foreign investment was down by 26.2 percent. The total planned investment in newly-started projects was 29,982.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8 percent. In September, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) went up by 0.68 percent month-on-month.

 

In the first three quarters of 2015, the total investment in real estate development was 7,053.5 billion yuan, a nominal year-on-year growth of 2.6 percent (a real growth of 4.2 percent after deducting price factors), or 2.0 percentage points lower than that in the first half of the year. Of this total, the investment in residential buildings went up by 1.7 percent. Floor space of houses newly started in the first three quarters was 1,148.14 million square meters, down by 12.6 percent. Specifically, the floor space of residential buildings dropped by 13.5 percent. The floor space of commercial buildings sold reached 829.08 million square meters, up by 7.5 percent year-on-year, or 3.6 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year. Of this total, that of residential buildings went up by 8.2 percent. The sales of commercial buildings in the first three quarters were 5,674.5 billion yuan, up by 15.3 percent. Of this total, that of residential buildings grew by 18.2 percent. In the first three quarters of this year, the land space purchased by real estate development enterprises was 158.90 million square meters, down by 33.8 percent. By the end of September, the floor space of commercial buildings for sale reached 665.10 million square meters, up by 16.4 percent. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises in the first three quarters reached 9,065.3 billion yuan, up by 0.9 percent.

 

4. Commodity Sales Grew Steadily and Moderately.

 

In the first three quarters of 2015, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 21,608.0 billion yuan, a nominal year-on-year increase of 10.5 percent (a real growth of 10.5 percent after deducting price factors), or 0.1 percentage point higher than that in the first half of the year. Specifically, the retail sales of the units above designated size stood at 10,108.9 billion yuan, up by 7.5 percent. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales in urban areas reached 18,584.3 billion yuan, up by 10.3 percent, and that in rural areas stood at 3,023.7 billion yuan, up by 11.7 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the total income of catering industry was 2,307.1 billion yuan, up by 11.7 percent year-on-year; and retail sales of goods were 19,300.9 billion yuan, up by 10.4 percent. In particular, the retail sales of units above designated size reached 9,492.6 billion yuan, up by 7.5 percent. In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 10.9 percent year-on-year (a real growth of 10.8 percent after deducting price factors), or 0.87 percent month-on-month.

 

In the first three quarters of 2015, the online retail sales reached 2,591.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 36.2 percent, of which, the online retail sales of physical goods valued 2,151.0 billion yuan, an increase of 34.7 percent, accounting for 10.0 percent of the total retail sales, and the online retail sales of non-physical goods were 440.4 billion yuan, an increase of 43.6 percent.

 

5. Imports and Exports Showed Year-on-Year Decrease.

 

The total value of imports and exports in the first three quarters of 2015 was 17,869.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9 percent. The total value of exports was 10,236.5 billion yuan, dropped by 1.8 percent; and that of imports was 7,633.4 billion yuan, down by 15.1 percent. The trade surplus was 2,603.1 billion yuan. In September, the total value of imports and exports was 2,224.1 billion yuan, down by 8.8 percent year-on-year. The total value of exports was 1,300.1 billion yuan, down by 1.1 percent; and that of imports was 924.0 billion yuan, down by 17.7 percent.

 

6. Consumer Price Remained Generally Stable.

 

In the first three quarters of 2015, the consumer price went up by 1.4 percent year-on-year, or 0.1 percentage point higher than that in the first half of the year. Specifically, the price went up by 1.5 percent in urban areas and 1.3 percent in rural areas. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food rose by 2.3 percent; tobacco, liquor and articles up by 1.6 percent; clothing up by 2.9 percent; household facilities, articles and maintenance services up by 1.1 percent; health care and personal articles rose by 1.8 percent; transportation and communication dropped by 1.8 percent; recreation, education, culture articles and services rose by 1.5 percent; and housing rose by 0.7 percent. In terms of food prices, that for grain grew by 2.3 percent, oil or fat down by 3.7 percent, pork up by 7.7 percent and fresh vegetables up by 6.9 percent. In September, the consumer price went up by 1.6 percent year-on-year, or 0.1 percent month-on-month. The producer prices for industrial products in the first three quarters dropped by 5.0 percent year-on-year, those of September dropped by 5.9 percent year-on-year, or 0.4 percent month-on-month. The purchasing prices for industrial producers in the first three quarters went down by 5.9 percent year-on-year, those of September dropped by 6.8 percent year-on-year, or 0.6 percent month-on-month.

 

7. Residents’ Income Kept Fast Growth.

 

Based on the integrated household survey, in the first three quarters of 2015, the national per capita disposable income was 16,367 yuan, a nominal growth of 9.2 percent year-on-year or a real increase of 7.7 percent after deducting price factors, which was 0.1 percentage point higher than that in the first half of the year. In terms of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 23,512 yuan, a nominal growth of 8.4 percent, or a real growth of 6.8 percent. The per capita disposable income of rural residents was 8,297 yuan, up by 9.5 percent nominally, or 8.1 percent in real terms. The median of national per capita disposable income was 14,460 yuan, a nominal increase of 10.2 percent. By the end of the third quarter, the number of rural migrant workers was 175.54 million, which generally maintained the same level as that in the same period of last year. The average monthly income of migrant workers was 3,052 yuan, up by 9.1 percent year-on-year.

 

8. Economic Structure Continued Optimization.

 

The industrial structure continued to be optimized. In the first three quarters, the value added of the tertiary industry accounted for 51.4 percent of GDP, which was 2.3 percentage points higher as compared with that in the same period of last year and 10.8 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry. The structure of domestic demand was further improved. In the first three quarters, the final consumption expenditure’s contribution to GDP growth was 58.4 percent, or 9.3 percentage points higher than that in the same period of last year. The income gap between urban and rural households was further narrowed. In the first three quarters, the real growth of per capita disposable income of rural residents was 1.3 percentage points higher than that of urban residents. The per capita income of urban residents was 2.83 times that of rural residents, narrowed by 0.03 as compared with the same period of the previous year. Energy conservation and consumption reduction continued to make new achievements. In the first three quarters, the energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 5.7 percent year-on-year.

 

9. Money Supply Kept a Steady Growth.

 

By the end of September, the balance of broad money (M2) was 135.98 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 13.1 percent; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 36.44 trillion yuan, up by 11.4 percent; and the balance of cash in circulation (M0) was 6.10 trillion yuan, up by 3.7 percent. The amount of outstanding loans by the end of September was 92.13 trillion yuan, while the amount of outstanding deposits was 133.73 trillion yuan. In the first three quarters, the newly increased loans reached 9.90 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.34 trillion yuan year-on-year; the newly increased deposits were 13.00 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.93 trillion yuan. In the first three quarters, the total social financing reached 11.94 trillion yuan.

 

As a whole, the good momentum of steady growth did not change in spite of the slight slowdown in the third quarter of 2015. The national economy was still running within proper range, structure adjustment was accelerating and new impetus was growing. However, we must be aware that internal and external conditions are complicated and downward pressure for economic development still exists. In the next stage, in accordance with the decisions and arrangements of the Central Party Committee and the State Council, we must deepen reform and opening up, speed up structure adjustment and upgrading, and build the twin engines by encouraging mass entrepreneurship and innovation and increasing public goods and services, so as to lay a solid foundation for a medium-to-high level of economic development with medium-to-high rate of growth.

 

Notes:

 

1. To further promote the integration of China’s quarterly GDP accounting with international practices, the National Bureau of Statistics of China has implemented the reform on quarterly GDP estimation since the third quarter of 2015 by adopting quarterly estimation on a discrete basis and publishing the relative results. 

 

2. The growth rate of gross domestic product, value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are real growth by using comparable prices. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.

 

3. According to the auto-revision function of the seasonal adjustment model, GDP in each quarter and the month-on-month changes of the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households), and total retail sales of consumer goods have been revised. The revised figures and figures for quarter-on-quarter GDP for the third quarter of 2015 and other indicators for September 2015 are as follows:

 

The quarter-on-quarter growth of GDP in each quarter of 2014 and in the first, second and third quarters of 2015 were 1.6 percent, 1.8 percent, 1.9 percent, 1.7 percent, 1.3 percent, 1.8 percent and 1.8 percent respectively.

 

Month-on-Month Changes

 

Value Added of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size

(%)

Investment in Fixed  Assets (Excluding Rural Households)

(%)

Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods

(%)

 

 

 

 

2014

September

0.90

1.01

0.79

October

0.43

0.95

0.91

November

0.44

0.94

0.86

December

0.67

0.94

0.98

2015

January

0.45

0.84

0.61

February

0.42

0.76

1.10

March

0.26

0.86

0.68

April

0.57

0.75

0.80

May

0.48

0.78

0.87

June

0.60

0.76

0.98

July

0.30

0.75

0.79

August

0.52

0.72

0.91

September

0.38

0.68

0.87

 

 

 

 

 

4. Starting from 2012, the NBS implemented the new Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities (GB/T4754-2011). For more detailed information, please refer to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics of China.

 

5. Industrial enterprises above designated size are industrial enterprises with annual revenue from primary activities over 20 million yuan.

 

6. Units above designated size in total retail sales of consumer goods include wholesale enterprises, retail enterprises and lodging and catering enterprises with annual revenue from principle business over 20 million yuan, 5 million yuan and 2 million yuan respectively.

 

The online retail sales refer to the retail sales of goods and services realized through internet trading platforms (including self-built websites and third-party platforms). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (e.g. virtual goods and services).

 

The total retail sales of consumer goods include the online retail sales of physical goods, excluding that of non-physical goods.

 

7. In the fourth quarter of 2012, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China conducted the reform of integrated survey of urban and rural households, unifying the names, classification and statistical standards of urban and rural households and selecting 160 thousand urban and rural households across the country to conduct direct surveys. On its basis, the national per capita disposable income as well as urban and rural per capita disposable income were calculated according to the new definitions which make urban and rural households comparable.

 

8. The median of national per capita disposable income refers to the per capita disposable income of households which lies in the middle of all surveyed households ranked from low to high on the basis of per capita disposable income level.

 

9. Migrant workers refer to the rural labor force who obtained employment outside their registered towns and townships at the reference time of the survey.

 

10. Data of imports and exports are from the General Administration of Customs; data of money supply, deposits and loans and social financing are from the People’s Bank of China.

 

11. Due to the rounding-off reasons, the subentries may not add up to the aggregate totals.

 

 

In case of any differences between English translation and the original Chinese text, the Chinese edition shall prevail.

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