China’s Economy Showed Moderate but Steady Growth
National Bureau of Statistics of China2015-07-15 10:00




National Bureau of Statistics of China

15 July 2015

 

In the first half year of 2015, faced with complicated external and domestic economic conditions and increasingly downward pressure, the Central Party Committee and the State Council have adhered to the general tone of “moving forward while maintaining stability”, conducted scientific and accurate macro-regulation and unswervingly pushed forward the system reform and institutional innovation. The national economy has been running within proper range and the major indicators picking up steadily, showing moderate but stable and sound momentum of development.

 

According to the preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China was 29,686.8 billion yuan in the first half year of 2015, a year-on-year increase of 7.0 percent at comparable prices. Specifically, the year-on-year growth of the first quarter was 7.0 percent and 7.0 percent for the second quarter. The value added of the primary industry was 2,025.5 billion yuan, up by 3.5 percent; the secondary industry 12,964.8 billion yuan, up by 6.1 percent; and the tertiary industry 14,696.5 billion yuan, up by 8.4 percent. The GDP of the second quarter of 2015 went up by 1.7 percent on a quarter-on-quarter base.

 

1. Agricultural Production Showed Good Momentum.

 

The total summer grain output in 2015 was 141.07 million tons, an increase of 4.47 million tons, up by 3.3 percent. The total output of oil-bearing crops was 13.88 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons, or 1.2 percent. The output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry was 39.06 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4 percent, among which the output of pork was 25.74 million tons, down by 4.9 percent.

 

2. Industrial Production Grew Steadily.

 

The total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size in the first half year was up by 6.3 percent at comparable prices, 0.1 percentage point slower than the first quarter. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added of the state holding enterprises went up by 1.9 percent year-on-year; collective enterprises by 2.0 percent; share-holding enterprises by 7.5 percent; and enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan by 3.8 percent. In terms of sectors, the value added of the mining grew by 3.2 percent on a year-on-year base, the manufacturing by 7.1 percent and the electricity, thermal power, gas and the production and supply of water by 2.2 percent. Out of the 565 kinds of industrial products, 305 kinds realized a year-on-year increase. In the first half year, the sales-output ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 97.3 percent. The export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 5,570.7 billion yuan, down by 0.4 percent. In June, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size was up by 6.8 percent year-on-year, which has been growing faster for three months in a row, and up by 0.64 percent month-on-month.

 

In the first five months of this year, the profits made by industrial enterprises above designated size stood at 2,254.8 billion yuan, down by 0.8 percent year-on-year. The costs for per-hundred-yuan turnover of primary activities of the industrial enterprises above designated size reached 85.95 yuan and the profit rate of the primary activities was 5.38 percent.

 

3. The Growth of Investment in Fixed Assets Slowed Down.

 

In the first six months, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 23,713.2 billion yuan, a nominal year-on-year growth of 11.4 percent (a real growth of 12.5 percent after deducting price factors), 2.1 percentage points slower than the first quarter. Specifically, the investment by the state holding enterprises reached 7,374.5 billion yuan, a rise of 12.3 percent; private investment reached 15,443.8 billion yuan, up by 11.4 percent, accounting for 65.1 percent of the total investment. The investment in the primary industry was 615.9 billion yuan, up by 27.8 percent year-on-year; the secondary industry 9,744.6 billion yuan, up by 9.3 percent; and the tertiary industry 13,352.7 billion yuan, an increase of 12.4 percent. The funds in place for investment in the first half year were 26,150.7 billion yuan, up by 6.3 percent. Specifically, the state budget went up by 18.6 percent, domestic loans down by 4.8 percent, self-raising funds up by 8.6 percent, foreign investment down by 30.9 percent. The total investment in newly-started projects in the first six months was 19,193.6 billion yuan, an increase of 1.6 percent year-on-year. In June, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) grew by 0.88 percent month-on-month.

 

The total investment in real estate development in the first six months was 4,395.5 billion yuan, a nominal year-on-year growth of 4.6 percent (a real growth of 5.7 percent after deducting price factors), 3.9 percentage points slower than the first quarter. In particular, the investment in residential buildings went up by 2.8 percent. The floor space started in the first six months was 674.79 million square meters, down by 15.8 percent. Specifically, the floor space of residential buildings went down by 17.3 percent. The floor space of commercial buildings sold was 502.64 million square meters, up by 3.9 percent; it was down by 9.2 percent on a year-on-year base in the first quarter. The floor space of residential buildings sold was up by 4.5 percent. The total sales of commercial buildings were 3,425.9 billion yuan, a year-one-year growth of 10.0 percent. Specifically, the sales of residential buildings were up by 12.9 percent. The land space purchased for real estate development was 98.00 million square meters, down by 33.8 percent year-on-year. By the end of June, the floor space of commercial buildings for sale was 657.38 million square meters, up by 20.8 percent. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises in the first half year reached 5,894.8 billion yuan, up by 0.1 percent.

 

4. Commodity Consumption Enjoyed a Steady Growth.

 

In the first half year, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 14,157.7 billion yuan, a nominal year-on-year rise of 10.4 percent (a real growth of 10.5 percent after deducting price factors), 0.2 percentage point slower than that in the first quarter. Specifically, the retail sales of the enterprises above designated size stood at 6,625.6 billion yuan, up by 7.4 percent. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales in urban areas reached 12,185.0 billion yuan, up by 10.2 percent, and the retail sales in rural areas stood at 1,972.7 billion yuan, up by 11.6 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the income of catering industry was 1,499.6 billion yuan, up by 11.5 percent; and the retail sales of goods were 12,658.1 billion yuan, up by 10.3 percent. In particular, the retail sales of the enterprises above designated size reached 6,230.6 billion yuan, an increase of 7.4 percent. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 10.6 percent year-on-year (a real growth of 10.6 percent after deducting price factors), 0.5 percentage point faster than that in May, or a growth of 0.96 percent month-on-month.

 

In the first half year, the online retail sales reached 1,645.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 39.1 percent, among which the online retail sales of physical goods were 1,375.9 billion yuan, an increase of 38.6 percent, accounting for 9.7 percent of the total retail sales and the online retail sales of non-physical goods were 270.0 billion yuan, an increase of 41.9 percent.

 

5. The Foreign Trade Surplus Continued to Grow.

 

The total value of imports and exports in the first half year of 2015 was 11,531.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.9 percent year-on-year. The total value of exports was 6,572.2 billion yuan, up by 0.9 percent; the total value of imports was 4,959.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.5 percent. The trade balance was 1,612.8 billion yuan in surplus. In June, the total value of imports and exports was 2,065.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9 percent. Of this total, the value of exports was 1,174.9 billion yuan, up by 2.1 percent; and that of imports was 890.7 billion yuan, down by 6.7 percent.

 

6. The Consumer Price Remained Generally Stable.

 

In the first six months, the consumer price went up by 1.3 percent year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point higher than that in the first quarter. Specifically, the price went up by 1.3 percent in urban areas and 1.1 percent in rural areas. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food was up by 2.0 percent; tobacco, liquor and articles up by 0.5 percent; clothing up by 2.9 percent; household facilities, articles and maintenance services up by 1.1 percent; health care and personal articles up by 1.8 percent; transportation and communication down by 1.6 percent; recreation, education, culture articles and services up by 1.5 percent and housing up by 0.7 percent. In terms of food prices, prices for grain went up by 2.6 percent, oil or fat down by 4.4 percent, pork up by 2.4 percent, fresh vegetables up by 4.6 percent. In June, the consumer prices were up by 1.4 percent year-on-year and remained the same on month-on-month base. In the first half year, the producer prices for industrial products went down by 4.6 percent year on year, and the prices in June dropped by 4.8 percent year-on-year and 0.4 percent month-on-month. In the first half year, the purchasing price for industrial producers was down by 5.5 percent year-on-year. In June, the price was down by 5.6 percent year-on-year and 0.2 percent month-on-month.

 

7. Residents’ Income Grew Steadily.

 

Based on the integrated household survey, in the first half year of 2015, the per capita disposable income was 10,931 yuan, a nominal growth of 9.0 percent year-on-year or a real increase of 7.6 percent after deducting price factors. In terms of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 15,699 yuan, a nominal growth of 8.1 percent, or a real growth of 6.7 percent after deducting price factors. The per capita disposable income of rural residents was 5,554 yuan, up by 9.5 percent nominally, or 8.3 percent in real terms. The median of the national disposal income was 9,700 yuan, a nominal increase of 10.5 percent. By the end of the second quarter, the number of rural migrant workers was 174.36 million, which was 180,000 more than the same period last year, or up by 0.1 percent. In the first half year, the monthly income of migrant workers was 3,002 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8 percent.

 

8. The Structure Continued to Be Optimized.

 

The industrial structure continued to be optimized. In the first half year, the value added of the tertiary industry accounted for 49.5 percent of GDP, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, 5.8 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry. The structure of domestic demand was further improved. In the first half year, the final consumption expenditure’s contribution to GDP accounted for 60.0 percent, 5.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The income gap between urban and rural households was further narrowed. In the first half year, the real growth of the per capita disposable income of rural residents was 1.6 percentage points faster than that of urban residents. The per capita income of urban residents was 2.83 times of that of rural residents, 0.04 percentage point less than that of the same period last year. Energy conservation and consumption reduction continued to make new achievements. In the first half year, the energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 5.9 percent.

 

9. Money Supply Maintained a Steady Growth.

 

By the end of June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 133.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11.8 percent; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 35.61 trillion yuan, up by 4.3 percent; and the balance of cash in circulation (M0) was 5.86 trillion yuan, a rise of 2.9 percent. At the end of June, the amount of outstanding loans was 88.79 trillion yuan, while the amount of outstanding deposits was 131.83 trillion yuan. In the first half year, the newly increased loans reached 6.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 537.1 billion yuan; the newly increased deposits were 11.09 trillion yuan, or 375.6 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The social financing reached 8.81 trillion yuan in the first half year.

 

Generally speaking, with the policies and measures taken by the Central Party Committee and the State Council, the major indicators of the second quarter showed that the growth was stabilized and ready to pick up, the economy developed with positive changes, and the vitality of the economic development was strengthened. However, we must be aware that the domestic and external economic conditions are still complicated, the global economic recovery is slow and tortuous and the foundation for the stabilization of China’s economy needs to be further consolidated. In the next stage, we will implement the decisions of the Central Party Committee and the State Council, strengthen our confidence, carry out solid work and handle properly the relationship between stabilizing growth, promoting reform, adjusting structure, benefiting people’s livelihood and fending off risks so as to facilitate a steady and high quality economic development while maintaining a medium-high rate of growth and moving forward to a medium-high level of development.

 

Notes:

 

1. The growth rate of gross domestic product, value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are real growth by using comparable prices. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.

 

2. According to the auto-revision function of the seasonal adjustment model, GDP in each quarter and the month-on-month changes of the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households), and total retail sales of consumer goods have been revised. The revised figures and figures for quarter-on-quarter GDP data for the second quarter of 2015 and other indicators for June 2015 are as follows:

 

The quarter-on-quarter growth of GDP in 2014 and the first and second quarters of 2015 were 1.6 percent, 1.9 percent, 1.9 percent, 1.5 percent, 1.4 percent and 1.7 percent respectively.

 

Month-on-Month Changes

 

Value Added of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size

(%)

Investment in Fixed  Assets (Excluding Rural Households)

(%)

Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods

(%)

 

 

 

 

2014

June

0.55

1.04

0.79

July

0.64

0.91

0.94

August

0.18

0.92

0.80

September

0.84

1.07

0.79

October

0.46

1.00

0.88

November

0.46

0.95

0.88

December

0.70

0.96

0.92

2015

January

0.48

0.88

0.58

February

0.46

0.80

1.07

March

0.31

0.90

0.69

April

0.62

0.75

0.78

May

0.54

0.84

0.86

June

0.64

0.88

0.96

 

 

 

 

 

3. From 2012, the NBS implemented the new Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities (GB/T4754-2011). For more detailed information, please refer to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics of China.

 

4. Industrial enterprises above designated size are industrial enterprises with annual revenue from primary activities over 20 million yuan.

 

5. Enterprises above designated size in total retail sales of consumer goods include wholesale enterprises, retail enterprises and lodging and catering enterprises with annual revenue from principle business over 20 million yuan, 5 million yuan and 2 million yuan respectively.

 

Online retail sales refer to the retail sales of goods and services realized through internet trading platforms (including self-built websites and third-party platforms). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (e.g. virtue goods and services).

 

The total retail sales of consumer goods include the online retail sales of physical goods, excluding that of non-physical goods.

 

6. In the fourth quarter of 2012, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China conducted the reform of integrated survey of urban and rural households, unifying the names, classification and statistical standards of urban and rural households and selecting 160 thousand urban and rural households across the country to conduct direct surveys. On its basis, per capita disposable income of national residents and that by urban and rural areas were calculated according to the new definitions which makes urban and rural households comparable.

 

7. The median of per capita disposable income of urban and rural households refers to the per capita disposable income of households which lies in the middle of all surveyed households ranked from low to high on the basis of per capital disposable income level.

 

8. Migrant workers refer to the rural labor force who obtained employment outside their registered towns and townships at the reference time of the survey.

 

9. Data of imports and exports are from the General Administration of Customs; data of money supply, deposits and loans and social financing are from the People’s Bank of China.

 

10. Due to the rounding-off reasons, the subentries may not add up to the aggregate totals.

 

 

In case of any differences between English translation and the original Chinese text, the Chinese edition shall prevail.

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