China’s Economy Realized a New Normal of Stable Growth in 2014
National Bureau of Statistics of China2015-01-20 10:00




National Bureau of Statistics of China

20 January, 2015

 

In 2014, faced with the complicated and volatile international environment and the heavy tasks to maintain the domestic development, reform and stability, the Central Party Committee and the State Council have adhered to the general tone of “moving forward while maintaining stability”, seized the momentum of development, fully deepened the reform and opening up, focused on the innovation of macro control, tapped into the vitality of the market and fostered the driving force of innovation. As a result, the national economy has been running steadily under the new normal, showing good momentum of stable growth, optimized structure,  enhanced quality and improved people’s livelihood. 

 

According to the preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China was 63,646.3 billion yuan in 2014, an increase of 7.4 percent at comparable prices. Specifically, the year-on-year growth of the first quarter was 7.4 percent, the second quarter 7.5 percent, the third quarter 7.3 percent, and the fourth quarter 7.3 percent. The value added of the primary industry was 5,833.2 billion yuan, up by 4.1 percent; the secondary industry 27,139.2 billion yuan, up by 7.3 percent; and the tertiary industry 30,673.9 billion yuan, up by 8.1 percent. The gross domestic product of the fourth quarter of 2014 went up by 1.5 percent on a quarter-on-quarter base.

 

1. Agricultural Production Showed Good Momentum.

 

The total grain output in 2014 was 607.10 million tons, an increase of 5.16 million tons, up by 0.9 percent. The total output of summer grain was 136.60 million tons, an increase of 3.6 percent; the total output of early rice was 34.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 percent; the total output of autumn grain was 436.49 million tons, an increase of 0.1 percent. The total output of cereals was 557.27 million tons, an increase of 0.8 percent. The total output of cotton in 2014 was 6.16 million tons, a decrease of 2.2 percent. The total output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry was 85.40 million tons, an increase of 2.0 percent, among which the total output of pork was 56.71 million tons, an increase of 3.2 percent. The total output of poultry eggs in 2014 was 28.94 million tons, an increase of 0.6 percent; the total output of milk was 37.25 million tons, an increase of 5.5 percent.

 

2. Industrial Production Went on within a Reasonable Range.

 

The total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size in 2014 was up by 8.3 percent at comparable prices. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added growth of the state-owned and state holding enterprises was 4.9 percent; that of the collective enterprises, 1.7 percent; share-holding enterprises, 9.7 percent; and enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, 6.3 percent. In terms of sectors, the value added of the mining grew by 4.5 percent compared with last year, the manufacturing by 9.4 percent and the electricity, thermal power, gas and the production and supply of water by 3.2 percent. The growth rates in eastern, central and western regions were up by 7.6 percent, 8.4 percent and 10.6 percent respectively. Out of the 464 kinds of industrial products, the output of 329 kinds realized an increase compared with last year. In 2014, the sales-output ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 97.8 percent. The export delivery value of these enterprises reached 12,093.3 billion yuan, up by 6.4 percent. In December, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size was up by 7.9 percent year-on-year or up by 0.75 percent month-on-month.

 

From January to November, the profits made by industrial enterprises above designated size stood at 5,620.8 billion yuan, up by 5.3 percent year-on-year. Of this total, the profit from principal activities was 5,294.45 billion yuan, up by 4.7 percent. The costs for per-hundred-yuan turnover of principal activities of the industrial enterprises above designated size reached 85.91 yuan and the profit rate of the principal activities was 5.69 percent.

 

3. The Growth of Investment in Fixed Assets Slowed Down. 

 

In 2014, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 50,200.5 billion yuan, the nominal year-on-year growth of 15.7 percent over last year (a real growth of 15.1 percent after deducting price factors). Specifically, the investment by the state-owned and state holding enterprises reached 16,162.9 billion yuan, a rise of 13.0 percent; private investment reached 32,157.6 billion yuan, up by 18.1 percent, accounting for 64.1 percent of the total investment. In terms of different areas, the growth in eastern, central and western regions was 14.6 percent, 17.2 percent and 17.5 percent respectively. The investment in the primary industry was 1,198.3 billion yuan, up by 33.9 percent; the secondary industry 20,810.7 billion yuan, up by 13.2 percent; and the tertiary industry 28,191.5 billion yuan, an increase of 16.8 percent. The funds in place for investment in 2014 were 53,083.3 billion yuan, up by 10.6 percent. Specifically, the state budget went up by 14.1 percent, domestic loans up by 8.6 percent, self-raising funds up by 14.4 percent, foreign investment down by 6.3 percent. The total investment in newly-started projects in 2014 was 40,647.8 billion yuan, an increase of 13.6 percent. In December, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) grew by 1.21 percent month-on-month.

 

The total investment in real estate development in 2014 was 9,503.6 billion yuan, a nominal growth of 10.5 percent (a real growth of 9.9 percent after deducting price factors). In particular, the investment in residential buildings went up by 9.2 percent. The floor space newly started was 1,795.92 million square meters, down by 10.7 percent. Specifically, the floor space of residential buildings went down by 14.4 percent. The floor space of commercial buildings sold was1,206.49 million square meters, down by 7.6 percent. Specifically, the floor space of residential buildings sold was down by 9.1 percent. The total sales of commercial buildings were 7,629.2 billion yuan, down by 6.3 percent. Specifically, the sales of residential buildings were down by 7.8 percent. The land space purchased for real estate development was 333.83 million square meters, down by 14.0 percent. By the end of December, the floor space of commercial buildings for sale was 621.69 million square meters, up by 26.1 percent. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises reached 12,199.1 billion yuan, down by 0.1 percent over last year.

 

4. Market Sales Enjoyed a Steady Growth.

 

In 2014, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 26,239.4 billion yuan, a nominal annual rise of 12.0 percent (a real growth of 10.9 percent after deducting price factors). Specifically, the retail sales of consumer goods by the enterprises (units) above designated size stood at 13,317.9 billion yuan, up by 9.3 percent. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales in urban areas reached 22,636.8 billion yuan, up by 11.8 percent, and the retail sales in rural areas stood at 3,602.7 billion yuan, up by 12.9 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the income of catering industry was 2,786.0 billion yuan, up by 9.7 percent; and the retail sales of goods were 23,453.4 billion yuan, up by 12.2 percent. In particular, the retail sales of the enterprises (units) above designated size reached 12,497.1 billion yuan, an increase of 9.8 percent. In December, the nominal growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 11.9 percent over last year (a real growth of 11.5 percent after deducting price factors), or 1.01 percent month-on-month.

 

In 2014, the online retail sales reached 2,789.8 billion yuan, an increase of 49.7 percent compared with last year and the online retail sales of the enterprises (units) above designated size stood at 440.0 billion yuan, up by 56.2 percent.

 

5. The Growth of Imports and Exports Slowed Down.

 

The total value of imports and exports in 2014 was 26,433.5 billion yuan, an increase of 2.3 percent. The total value of exports was 14,391.2 billion yuan, up by 4.9 percent; the total value of imports was 12,042.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.6 percent. The trade balance was 2,348.9 billion yuan in surplus. In December, the total value of imports and exports was 2,490.1 billion yuan, the year-on-year growth of 4.2 percent. Of this total, the value of exports was 1,397.3 billion yuan, up by 9.9 percent; and that of imports was 1,092.8 billion yuan, down by 2.3 percent.

 

6. The Consumer Price Increased at a Low Rate.

 

In 2014, the consumer price went up by 2.0 percent. Specifically, the price went up by 2.1 percent in urban areas and 1.8 percent in rural areas. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food rose by 3.1 percent; tobacco, liquor and related articles decreased by 0.6 percent; clothing up by 2.4 percent; household facilities, articles and maintenance services up by 1.2 percent; health care and personal articles grew by 1.3 percent; transportation and communication down by 0.1 percent; recreation, education, culture articles and services up by 1.9 percent and housing up by 2.0 percent. In terms of food prices, grain grew up by 3.1 percent, oil or fat down by 4.9 percent, pork down by 4.3 percent, fresh vegetables down by 1.5 percent. In December, the consumer prices went up by 1.5 percent year-on-year, or 0.3 percent up month-on-month. In 2014, the producer prices for industrial products went down by 1.9 percent compared with last year, while the price in December dropped by 3.3 percent year-on-year and 0.6 percent month-on-month. The purchasing price for industrial producers was down by 2.2 percent compared with last year and in December, the price was down by 4.0 percent year-on-year and 0.8 percent month-on-month.

 

7. Residents’ Income Continued to Increase.

 

Based on the integrated household survey, in 2014, the national per capita disposable income was 20,167 yuan, a nominal growth of 10.1 percent or a real increase of 8.0 percent after deducting price factors. In terms of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban households was 28,844 yuan, a nominal growth of 9.0 percent, or a real growth of 6.8 percent after deducting price factors. The per capita disposable income of rural residents was 10,489 yuan, up by 11.2 percent nominally, or 9.2 percent in real terms. The median of the national disposal income was 17,570 yuan, a nominal increase of 12.4 percent. Taking the per capita disposable income of nationwide households by income quintiles, that of the low-income group reached 4,747 yuan, the lower-middle-income group 10,887 yuan, the middle-income group 17,631 yuan, the upper-middle-income group 26,937 yuan, and the high-income group 50,968 yuan. The Gini Coefficient for national disposable income in 2014 was 0.469. The per capita net income of rural residents was 9,892 yuan, an increase of 9.2 percent after deducting the price factors. The number of rural migrant workers at the end of the year was 273.95 million, which was 5.01 million more than that in the previous year, or up by 1.9 percent. Specifically, the numbers of local and outside workers were 105.74 million and 168.21 million respectively, up by 2.8 and 1.3 percent. The average monthly income of migrant workers was 2,864 yuan, up by 9.8 percent.

 

8. Structural Adjustment Achieved Stable Progress.

 

The industrial structure was further optimized. In 2014, the value of the tertiary industry accounted for 48.2 percent of GDP, 1.3 percentage points higher than last year, 5.6 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry. The structure of domestic demand was further improved. In 2014, the final consumption expenditure accounted for 51.2 percent of GDP, 3.0 percentage points higher than last year. The income gap between urban and rural households was further narrowed. In 2014, the real growth of the per capita disposable income of rural households was 2.4 percentage points faster than that of urban households. The per capita income of urban households was 2.75 times of the rural households, 0.06 less than last year. Energy conservation and consumption reduction continued to make new achievements. In 2014, the energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 4.8 percent compared with last year.

 

9. Money Supply Maintained a Steady Growth.

 

By the end of December, the balance of broad money (M2) was 122.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.2 percent compared with that at the end of last year; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 34.81 trillion yuan, up by 3.2 percent; and the balance of cash in circulation (M0) was 6.03 trillion yuan, a rise of 2.9 percent. At the end of December, the amount of outstanding loans was 81.68 trillion yuan, while the amount of outstanding deposits was 113.86 trillion yuan. In 2014, the newly increased loans reached 9.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 890.0 billion yuan; the newly increased deposits were 9.48 trillion yuan, or 3.08 trillion yuan less than last year. The social financing reached 16.46 trillion yuan, a decrease of 859.8 billion yuan.

 

10. Population and Employment were Generally Steady.

 

By the end of 2014, the total population of mainland China was 1,367.82 million (including population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, and servicemen in CPLA; but not including residents in Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR, Taiwan Province and overseas Chinese), an increase of 7.10 million over that at the end of 2013. In 2014, the number of births was 16.87 million and the birth rate was 12.37 in a thousand; the number of deaths were 9.77 million with a death rate of 7.16 in a thousand; the natural growth rate was 5.21 in a thousand, an increase of 0.29 in a thousand. In terms of gender, the male population was 700.79 million, and female population was 667.03 million; the sex ratio of total population was 105.06 (the female is 100, male to female); the sex ratio at birth was 115.88. Population at the working age of 16-59 was 915.83 million, a decrease of 3.71 million as compared that at the end of 2013, and it accounted for 67.0 percent of the total population; population aged 60 and over was 212.42 million, which was 15.5 percent of the total population; population aged 65 and over was 137.55 million, accounting for 10.1 percent of the total population. In terms of urban-rural structure, the urban population was 749.16 million, an increase of 18.05 million over the previous year; and the rural population was 618.66 million, a decrease of 10.95 million. The proportion of urban population to total population was 54.77 percent. The population who reside in street communities but with permanent household registration elsewhere and having been away from that place for more than 6 months reached 298 million, which was 9.44 million more than that in the previous year. Specifically, the migrant population was 253 million, or 8.00 million more. At the end of the year, the total number of employed persons was 772.53 million, or 2.76 million more than that at the end of 2013; the number of urban employed persons was 393.10 million, or 10.70 million more.

 

Generally speaking, China’s economy has achieved stable progress with improved quality under the new normal in 2014. However, we should also be aware that the domestic and international situations are still complicated and the economic development is facing with difficulties and challenges. In the next stage, we must implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and fulfill the decisions of the Central Party Committee and the State Council. We must adhere to the principle of maintaining stable progress, focus on the improvement of the quality and efficiency of the economic development and proactively get adapted to the new normal. We must keep the economic operation within proper range, prioritize the economic transformation and structural adjustment, focus on the reform and major breakthroughs, highlight the driving force of innovation, strengthen the fending off of risks, improve people’s livelihood and security and promote a sound and sustainable economic growth and social harmony and stability.  

 

Notes:

 

1. The growth rate of gross domestic product, value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are real growth by using comparable prices. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.

 

2. According to the auto-revision function of the seasonal adjustment model, GDP in each quarter and the month-on-month changes of the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households), and total retail sales of consumer goods have been revised. The revised figures and figure for the fourth quarter GDP in 2014 as well as the month-on-month changes for other indicators in December 2014 are as follows:

 

The quarter-on-quarter growth of GDP in 2013 and 2014 were 1.7 percent, 1.8 percent, 2.3 percent, 1.8 percent, 1.6 percent, 1.9 percent, 1.9 percent and 1.5 percent respectively.

 

Month-on-Month Changes in 2014

 

Value Added of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size

(%)

Investment in Fixed  Assets (Excluding Rural Households)

(%)

Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods

(%)

 

 

 

 

January

0.55

1.49

0.85

February

0.56

1.42

0.95

March

0.84

1.50

0.98

April

0.64

1.14

0.84

May

0.65

1.29

1.11

June

0.72

1.41

0.95

July

0.64

0.77

0.89

August

0.21

1.00

0.89

September

0.92

0.76

0.87

October

0.52

1.66

1.01

November

0.54

1.02

0.90

December

0.75

1.21

1.01

 

 

 

 

 

3. From 2012, the NBS implemented the new Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities (GB/T4754-2011). For more detailed information, please refer to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics of China.

 

4. The eastern areas include 11 provinces and municipalities: Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong and Hainan; central areas cover 8 provinces: Shanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei and Hunan; western area include 12 provinces, autonomous regions and municipality: Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang.

 

5. Industrial enterprises above designated size are industrial enterprises with annual revenue from primary activities over 20 million yuan.

 

6. Units above designated size in total retail sales of consumer goods include wholesale enterprises, retail enterprises and lodging and catering enterprises with annual revenue from principle business over 20 million yuan, 5 million yuan and 2 million yuan respectively.

 

Online retail sales refer to the retail sales of goods and services realized through internet trading platforms (including self-built websites and third-party platforms) by enterprises (units, self-employed and individuals). Goods and services include physical goods, virtual goods and services. The online retail sales of the units above designated size refer to the retail sales of consumer goods conducted through Internet trading platforms (including self-built websites and third-party platforms) by units above designated sizes.

 

There are great differences between the online retails sales and the total retail sales of consumer goods in coverage and definition. The sales of virtual goods, services and a few other goods for production operation and resale, included in online retail sales are not covered by the total retail sales of consumer goods. The relation of the two cannot be described as full inclusion.

 

7. In the fourth quarter of 2012, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China conducted the reform of integrated survey of urban and rural households, unifying the names, classification and statistical standards of urban and rural households and selecting 160 thousand urban and rural households across the country to conduct direct surveys. On its basis, per capita disposable income of national residents as well as urban and rural per capita disposable income were calculated according to the new definitions which makes urban and rural households comparable. Meanwhile, per capita net income of rural households was also provided which can be compared with urban households.

 

8. The median of per capita income of urban and rural households refer to the per capita income of household lied in the middle of all surveyed households which are ranked from low to high based on per capital income level.

 

9. The income of urban and rural households by quintiles refer to the per capita income of surveyed households which are divided into five levels averagely, ranking from low to high based on per capital income level; the top 20% households with the highest income are classified as high-income group. The other four levels are upper-middle-income group, middle-income group, lower-middle-income group and low-income group.

 

10. Migrant workers refer to those who work in urban areas, or in the non-agriculture sectors in local areas for over 6 months with their permanent household registrations being in rural areas. Local migrant workers refer to those who work in the administration area where they register their households permanently. Outside migrant workers refer to those who work in areas other than the administration area where they register their households permanently.

 

11. Employed persons refer to persons aged 16 and over who have the ability to work and engage in gainful employment for remuneration payment or business income.

 

12. Data of imports and exports are from the General Administration of Customs; data of money supply and deposits and loans and social financing are from the People’s Bank of China.

 

13. Due to the rounding-off reasons, the subentries may not add up to the aggregate totals.

 

 

 

In case of any differences between English translation and the original Chinese text, the Chinese edition shall prevail.

 

 

 

 

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