China's Non-manufacturing PMI Increased in November
Department of Service Statistics of NBS
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)
In November 2014, non-manufacturing purchasing manager index was 53.9 percent, slightly increased 0.1 percentage point over the previous month, and 3.9 percentage points higher than the threshold, indicating that the development trend of China's non-manufacturing sector was generally good.
In view of different industries, non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of service industry was 52.6 percent, remained at the same level over last month, indicating that the total business of service industry continued to maintain steady growth. Of which, the indices of post, Internet, software and information technology services, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services were above the threshold; the indices of air transport, transport via railway, restaurants were below the threshold. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of construction industry achieved 58.9 percent, up by 0.4 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that growth of total enterprise business of construction industry has accelerated.
New orders index was 50.1 percent, down by 0.9 percentage points over the previous month, slightly higher than the threshold, indicating a slight increase in the non-manufacturing market demand, while the growth rate has declined. In view of different industries, the new orders index of service industry was 49.4 percent, decreased 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, and was lower than the threshold. Of which, the new orders indices of post, loading, unloading and portage, storage, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services were above the threshold, and the market demands increased; while the new orders indices of transport via railway, air transport, restaurants were below the threshold, and the market demands decreased. The new orders index of construction industry was 52.9 percent, decreased 3.5 percentage points over the previous month, and was still above the threshold.
Intermediate input price index was 50.6 percent, down by 1.4 percentage points over last month, indicating the intermediate input price during the process of production and operation of non-manufacturing enterprises continued to rise, but at a slower pace. In view of different industries, the intermediate input price index of service industry was 50.1 percent, down by 1.7 percentage points over the previous month, and was above the threshold. The intermediate input price index of construction industry was 52.5 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points over the previous month, and was higher than the threshold.
The subscription price index was 47.7 percent, 1.1 percentage points lower over last month, and was below the threshold, showing that the overall level of non-manufacturing subscription price continued to decrease. In view of different industries, the subscription price index of service industry was 47.1 percent, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points over the previous month, and still stayed below the threshold. The subscription price index of construction industry was 49.8 percent, down by 0.4 percentage points over last month, and was lower than the threshold.
Employment index was 49.5 percent, lower than the threshold, but increased 0.6 percentage points over the previous month, indicating the pace of decline of enterprise labor employment has narrowed. In view of different industries, the employment index of service industry was 48.8 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month, and was lower than the threshold. The employment index of construction industry was 52.3 percent, up by 1.8 percentage points over last month, and stayed above the threshold, showing the growth of enterprise labor employment of construction industry has accelerated.
Business activities expectation index was 59.7 percent, went down by 0.2 percentage point over last month, but was still close to the high level of the range, indicating that the non-manufacturing enterprises still maintained optimistic about the operating expectation in next three months.
| China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally adjusted) | ||||||
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| Non-manufacturing PMI | New Orders Index | Intermediate Input Price Index | Subscription Price Index | Employment index | Business Activities Expectation Index |
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| 2013-November | 56.0 | 51.0 | 54.8 | 49.5 | 51.9 | 61.3 |
| December | 54.6 | 51.0 | 56.9 | 52.0 | 51.1 | 58.7 |
| 2014-January | 53.4 | 50.9 | 54.5 | 50.1 | 49.7 | 58.1 |
| February | 55.0 | 51.4 | 52.1 | 49.0 | 50.9 | 59.9 |
| March | 54.5 | 50.8 | 52.8 | 49.5 | 51.4 | 61.5 |
| April | 54.8 | 50.8 | 52.4 | 49.4 | 50.2 | 61.5 |
| May | 55.5 | 52.7 | 54.5 | 49.0 | 50.9 | 60.7 |
| June | 55.0 | 50.7 | 56.0 | 50.8 | 50.4 | 60.4 |
| July | 54.2 | 50.7 | 53.4 | 49.5 | 49.3 | 61.5 |
| August | 54.4 | 50.0 | 52.2 | 48.3 | 49.6 | 61.2 |
| September | 54.0 | 49.5 | 49.8 | 47.3 | 49.5 | 60.9 |
| October | 53.8 | 51.0 | 52.0 | 48.8 | 48.9 | 59.9 |
| November | 53.9 | 50.1 | 50.6 | 47.7 | 49.5 | 59.7 |
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Annotations:
1. Explanatory Notes
China non-manufacturing purchasing manager index system constituted by 10 sub-indices, they are business activity index, new orders index, new export orders index in hand orders index, stock index, intermediate input price index, subscription price index, employment index, supplier delivery time index, and business activities expectation index. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development, A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates expansion from the previous month, while below indicates contraction.
2. Statistical Coverage
The survey involves 27 non-manufacturing industry categories in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities" (GB/T4754-2011), and was conducted in 1200 sampling enterprises of the non-manufacturing sector countrywide.
3. Survey Methods
Non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey was conducted in PPS ( Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, using the non-manufacturing sectors as the selecting layers, distribution of sample size was according to their value-added accounted for the proportion of total non-manufacturing value-added, and samples within layers and the main business revenue of the enterprises were selected by the PPS.
The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.
4. Calculation Methods
Non-manufacturing purchasing managers survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. Diffusion index was calculated on each question, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers.
5. Seasonal Adjustment Note
The purchasing manager’s survey is a monthly survey, great fluctuations of data which affected by seasonal factors. At present, time series of China's non-manufacturing PMI have met the technical requirements of the seasonally adjustment, and the sub-indices of non-manufacturing PMI data on seasonally adjusted will be released since March 2012.