Business Climate Index of Industrial Enterprises Increased in the First Quarter of 2014
The business climate index (BCI) of industrial enterprises was 128.0 in the first quarter of 2014, increased 3.7 points quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to a higher expected BCI of industrial enterprises that reflected the anticipation of future business climate of industrial enterprises. Of which, the current BCI of industrial enterprises that reflected the current state of business climate of industrial enterprises was 122.5, down by 6.1 points quarter-on-quarter; the expected BCI of industrial enterprises that reflected the anticipation of future business climate of industrial enterprises was 131.6, up by 10.2 points quarter-on-quarter. In the first quarter, the entrepreneur expectation index (ECI) of industrial enterprises was 124.3, up by 3.3 points quarter-on-quarter.
In terms of enterprises profit level, 76.3 percent of industrial enterprises showed that the profit status in the first quarter of 2014 was at a "normal" or "better than normal" level, decreased 2.7 percentage points over the fourth quarter of 2013, while increased 2.1 percentage points over the same period last year.
In terms of inventory status of enterprises, 86.4 percent of industrial enterprises showed that the inventory in the first quarter of 2014 was at a "normal" level, 0.5 percentage points higher than that in the fourth quarter of 2013; 5.3 percent of enterprises showed that the inventory in the first quarter was "below the normal level", 0.5 percentage points lower; while 8.3 percent of enterprises showed that the inventory in first quarter was "above the normal level", kept at the same level over the fourth quarter of 2013.
In terms of order status of enterprises, 81.2 percent of industrial enterprises showed that the order status in the first quarter was at a "normal" or "better than normal" level, decreased 1.2 percentage points over the fourth quarter of 2013, while increased 2.5 percentage points over the same period last year.
In terms of different industries, the rank of BCIs of industrial enterprises in descending order in the first quarter was followed by production and distribution of electricity, heating power, gas and water, manufacturing, mining and quarrying, and the BCIs were 135.5, 130.1, 89.8 respectively. Of which, the industries with high prosperity from high to low in descending order were pharmaceutical, tobacco, motor vehicles, wines, beverage and refined tea, manufacture of foods, manufacture of electrical machinery and equipment, manufacture of measuring instrument and meter, manufacture of special-purpose machinery, processing of woods, manufacture of computer, communication equipment and other electronic equipment, manufacture of general-purpose machinery, manufacture of furniture, manufacture of fabricated metal products, printing, reproduction of recording media, manufacture of rubber and plastics products, processing of food from agricultural products, manufacture of articles for culture, education, artwork, sport and entertainment activity, the BCIs were above 130. The industry with low prosperity from low to high in ascending order were processing of petroleum, steel, waste recycling and recovery, the BCIs were below 110. The BCIs of other industries were between 110 and 130.
In terms of the sizes of enterprises, the BCIs of large, medium and small-sized enterprises were 132.5, 129.4 and 121.0 respectively, and went down by 10.6, up by 3.5 and up by 5.3 points quarter-on-quarter, respectively.
In terms of different regions, the BCIs of eastern, central and western regions stood at 129.9, 129.3 and 118.3 respectively, and went up by 4.4, 2.3 and 2.6 points quarter-on-quarter, respectively.
Annotations:
1. Explanatory Notes
The business climate index of industrial enterprises comprehensively reflects the economic situation and the expected direction, through out by the good or bad judgments on the business situation from the entrepreneurs from the business climate survey. The range of BCI of industrial enterprises is between 0-200, 100 as the critical value, when the index is greater than 100, reflecting the business climate state is good and optimistic, the more close to 200 the higher the level of optimism; less than 100, reflect the state of the business climate is poor and pessimistic, closer to 0 reflect deeper pessimistic.
2. Statistical Coverage
The survey covers industrial enterprises, and samples were drawn according to the proportion of their sizes.
3. Survey Methods
Samples were selected by adopting the sampling methods of stratified, probability proportional to size (PPS). The national total sample size were 73,000 enterprises. Persons in charge of enterprises report online quarterly.
4. Survey Contents
Survey involved in the business running, enterprises operation, profitability, employment, investment, financing, inventory and other production and management problems.
5. Calculation Methods
The business climate index = 0.4×Current BCI +0.6×Expected BCI
Current BCI = the proportion of good by the answer from the responsible persons in charge of the enterprise operating conditions in the current quarter - poor proportion of +100
Expected BCI = the proportion of good by the answer from the responsible persons in charge of the enterprise operating conditions in the next quarter - poor proportion of +100
6. Classification of Eastern, Central and Western Regions
Eastern regions including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, Hainan; central regions including Shanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan; western regions including Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang.