China's Non-manufacturing PMI Decreased in December
Department of Service Statistics of NBS
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)
In December, non-manufacturing purchasing manager index was 54.6 percent, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points over the previous month.
In view of different industries, non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of service industry was 52.5 percent, down by 1.6 percentage points than that in the previous month. Of which, the indices of Internet, software and information technology services, post, water transport, loading, unloading and portage, storage, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, retail trade were above 60 percent, and the total enterprise business increased obviously; the indices of ecological protection, environmental control and management of public facilities, accommodation, renting and leasing activities and business services, restaurants, transport via road were below the threshold, and the total enterprise business decreased. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of construction industry achieved 62.6 percent, down by 0.9 percentage points over the previous month, and continue to position in the high level of the range which above 60 percent.
New orders index remained at the same level month-on-month. The new orders index was 51.0 percent, the same with that in the previous month, and continued to stay above the threshold. In view of different industries, the new orders index of service industry was 49.7 percent, 0.6 percentage points lower over the previous month and dropped below the threshold. Of which, the new orders indices of Internet, software and information technology services, post, water transport, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, loading, unloading and portage, storage were above the threshold, and the market demands increased, while the new orders indices of ecological protection, environmental control and management of public facilities, renting and leasing activities and business services, air transport, transport via road, restaurants were below the threshold, and the market demands decreased. The new orders index of construction industry was 55.9 percent, increased 2.1 percentage points over the previous month, indicating the market demands continued to increase.
Intermediate input price index went up, which reached 56.9 percent, up by 2.1 percentage points over last month, indicating the production and operation costs had increased. In view of different industries, the intermediate input price index of service industry was 57.6 percent, up by 3.1 percentage points over the previous month, and the intermediate input price indices of all the sub industries were above the threshold. The intermediate input price index of construction industry was 53.9 percent, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points over the previous month, and still stayed above the threshold, indicating the production and operation costs of construction industry continued to increase with a narrowed amount.
The subscription price index rose above the threshold. This index was 52.0 percent, 2.5 percentage points higher over last month, and stayed above the threshold, showing that the non-manufacturing subscription price got an increase from decrease. In view of different industries, the subscription price index of service industry was 52.3 percent, an increase of 3.5 percentage point over the previous month. Of which, the subscription price indices of wholesale, retail trade, Internet, software and information technology services, ecological protection, environmental control and management of public facilities, real estate were above the threshold; that of air transport, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, accommodation, restaurants were below the threshold. The subscription price index of construction industry was 50.9 percent, down by 1.3 percentage points over last month.
Business activities expectation index dropped from a high place. This index reached 58.7 percent, down by 2.6 percentage points over last month, indicating that the proportion of non-manufacturing enterprises which maintained optimistic about the operating expectation in next three months declined. In view of different industries, only the business activities expectation indices of accommodation and water transport stayed below the threshold, while that of other industries were above the threshold.
| China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally adjusted) | |||||
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| Non-manufacturing PMI | New Orders Index | Intermediate Input Price Index | Subscription Price Index | Business Activities Expectation Index |
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| 2012-December | 56.1 | 54.3 | 53.8 | 50.0 | 64.6 |
| 2013-January | 56.2 | 53.7 | 58.2 | 50.9 | 61.4 |
| February | 54.5 | 51.8 | 56.2 | 51.1 | 62.7 |
| March | 55.6 | 52.0 | 55.3 | 50.0 | 62.4 |
| April | 54.5 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 47.6 | 62.5 |
| May | 54.3 | 50.1 | 54.4 | 50.7 | 62.9 |
| June | 53.9 | 50.3 | 55.0 | 50.6 | 61.8 |
| July | 54.1 | 50.3 | 58.2 | 52.4 | 63.9 |
| August | 53.9 | 50.9 | 57.1 | 51.2 | 62.9 |
| September | 55.4 | 53.4 | 56.7 | 50.6 | 60.1 |
| October | 56.3 | 51.6 | 56.1 | 51.4 | 60.5 |
| November | 56.0 | 51.0 | 54.8 | 49.5 | 61.3 |
| December | 54.6 | 51.0 | 56.9 | 52.0 | 58.7 |
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Annotations:
1. Explanatory Notes
China non-manufacturing purchasing manager index system constituted by 10 sub-indices, they are business activity index, new orders index, new export orders index in hand orders index, stock index, intermediate input price index, subscription price index, employment index, supplier delivery time index, and business activities expectation index. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development, A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates expansion from the previous month, while below indicates contraction.
2. Statistical Coverage
The survey involves 27 non-manufacturing industry categories in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities" (GB/T4754-2011), and was conducted in 1200 sampling enterprises of the non-manufacturing sector countrywide.
3. Survey Methods
Non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey was conducted in PPS ( Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, using the non-manufacturing sectors as the selecting layers, distribution of sample size was according to their value-added accounted for the proportion of total non-manufacturing value-added, and samples within layers and the main business revenue of the enterprises were selected by the PPS.
The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.
4. Calculation Methods
Non-manufacturing purchasing managers survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. Diffusion index was calculated on each question, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers.
5. Seasonal Adjustment Note
The purchasing manager’s survey is a monthly survey, great fluctuations of data which affected by seasonal factors. At present, time series of China's non-manufacturing PMI have met the technical requirements of the seasonally adjustment, and the sub-indices of non-manufacturing PMI data on seasonally adjusted will be released since March 2012.