China's PMI Was 51.0 Percent in December
Department of Service Statistics of NBS
China Federation of Logistics and Purchases (CFLP)
In December, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 51.0 percent, down by 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, 0.2 percentage points higher than the average of 2013, and had stayed above the threshold for 15 consecutive months.
In view of the sizes of enterprises, the PMI of large-sized enterprises was 52.0 percent, decreased 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, continued to stay above the threshold, and still positioned in the prosperity interval; that of medium-sized enterprises was 49.9 percent, down by 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, below the threshold; that of small-sized enterprises was 47.7 percent, down by 0.6 percentage points month-on-month, continued to position below the threshold.
In December, the five sub-indices composing PMI all decreased.
Production index was 53.9 percent, decreased 0.6 percentage points month-on-month, and stayed above the threshold.
New orders index was 52.0 percent, down by 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, and stayed above the threshold. The survey results showed that new export orders index and import index which reflect the situation of foreign trade of manufacturing were 49.8 percent and 49.0 percent, respectively decreased 0.8 and 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, and both dropped below the threshold.
Main raw materials inventory index was 47.6 percent, decreased 0.2 percentage points over last month, and stayed below the threshold.
Employed person index was 48.7 percent, decreased 0.9 percentage points month-on-month, and stayed below the threshold.
Supplier delivery time index was 50.5 percent, slightly decreased 0.1 percentage point over last month, still stayed above the threshold for 10 consecutive months.
Open orders index was 45.1 percent, decreased 0.2 percentage points over last month, had dropped back for 3 consecutive months, and continued to stay below the threshold.
Finished goods inventory index was 46.2 percent, decreased 1.7 percentage points over last month, and stayed below the threshold.
Purchase quantity index was 52.7 percent, 0.9 percentage points lower than that in last month, and stayed above the threshold for 5 consecutive months.
Main raw material purchase price index was 52.6 percent, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point month-on-month, and stayed above the threshold.
Production and business activities expectation index was 49.4 percent, dropped 5.5 percent points over last month, and stayed below the threshold.
| China's manufacturing PMI (Seasonally adjusted) | ||||||
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| PMI |
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| Production Index | New Orders Index | Main Raw Materials Inventory Index | Employed Person Index | Supplier Delivery Time Index | ||
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| 2012-December | 50.6 | 52.0 | 51.2 | 47.3 | 49.0 | 48.8 |
| 2013-January | 50.4 | 51.3 | 51.6 | 50.1 | 47.8 | 50.0 |
| February | 50.1 | 51.2 | 50.1 | 49.5 | 47.6 | 48.3 |
| March | 50.9 | 52.7 | 52.3 | 47.5 | 49.8 | 51.1 |
| April | 50.6 | 52.6 | 51.7 | 47.5 | 49.0 | 50.8 |
| May | 50.8 | 53.3 | 51.8 | 47.6 | 48.8 | 50.8 |
| June | 50.1 | 52.0 | 50.4 | 47.4 | 48.7 | 50.3 |
| July | 50.3 | 52.4 | 50.6 | 47.6 | 49.1 | 50.1 |
| August | 51.0 | 52.6 | 52.4 | 48.0 | 49.3 | 50.4 |
| September | 51.1 | 52.9 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.1 | 50.8 |
| October | 51.4 | 54.4 | 52.5 | 48.6 | 49.2 | 50.8 |
| November | 51.4 | 54.5 | 52.3 | 47.8 | 49.6 | 50.6 |
| December | 51.0 | 53.9 | 52.0 | 47.6 | 48.7 | 50.5 |
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Annotations:
1. Explanatory Notes
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the manufacturing economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the manufacturing economy is in recession.
2.Statistical Coverage
The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing sector in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2011). The survey sample was expanded from 820 to 3000 since January 2013.
3. Survey Methods
PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing sector as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing sector. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.
The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.
4. Calculation Methods
The questionnaire of manufacturing purchasing managers survey covers 12 questions related to production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase prices, raw materials, inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation and etc.. Diffusion index was calculated for each question, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers.
PMI is a composite index, which was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employees index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.
5. Seasonal adjustment
The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.