Purchasing Managers' Index for February 2024

National Bureau of Statistics of China 2024-03-02 09:30 Print| Large| Medium| Small

Department of Service Statistics of NBS of China

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)

 

1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index

 

In February, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry came in at 49.1 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.

 

 

In terms of enterprise size, the PMI for large enterprises was 50.4 percent, flat from the previous month, higher than the threshold; the PMI for medium-sized enterprises came in at 49.1 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, below the threshold; the PMI for small enterprises stood at 46.4 percent, a decrease of 0.8 percentage point from the previous month, below the threshold.

 

From the sub-indexes, among the five sub-indexes that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index, the new order index, the raw material inventory index, the employment index and the supplier delivery time index were all below the threshold.

 

The production index was 49.8 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production activities.

 

The new order index was 49.0 percent, flat from the previous month and still below the threshold, indicating that demand in the manufacturing market declined from the previous month.

 

The raw material inventory index was 47.4 percent, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry continued to decline.

 

The employment index was 47.5 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a decline in the employment climate of manufacturing enterprises.

 

The supplier delivery time index was 48.8 percent, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the delivery time for suppliers of raw materials in the manufacturing industry had lengthened from the previous month.

 

China's Manufacturing PMI and Sub-indexes (Seasonally Adjusted)

 

Unit: %

 

PMI

 

Production Index

New Order Index

Raw Material

Inventory Index

Employment Index

Supplier

Delivery Time Index

2023-February

52.6

56.7

54.1

49.8

50.2

52.0

March

51.9

54.6

53.6

48.3

49.7

50.8

April

49.2

50.2

48.8

47.9

48.8

50.3

May

48.8

49.6

48.3

47.6

48.4

50.5

June

49.0

50.3

48.6

47.4

48.2

50.4

July

49.3

50.2

49.5

48.2

48.1

50.5

August

49.7

51.9

50.2

48.4

48.0

51.6

September

50.2

52.7

50.5

48.5

48.1

50.8

October

49.5

50.9

49.5

48.2

48.0

50.2

November

49.4

50.7

49.4

48.0

48.1

50.3

December

49.0

50.2

48.7

47.7

47.9

50.3

2024-January

49.2

51.3

49.0

47.6

47.6

50.8

February

49.1

49.8

49.0

47.4

47.5

48.8

 

Related Indexes of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

 

Unit: %

 

New Export

Order Index

Import Index

Purchase Quantity Index

Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index

Producer

Price Index

Finished Goods

Inventory Index

Existing

Order Index

Production and Operation

Expectation Index

2023-February

52.4

51.3

53.5

54.4

51.2

50.6

49.3

57.5

March

50.4

50.9

53.5

50.9

48.6

49.5

48.9

55.5

April

47.6

48.9

49.1

46.4

44.9

49.4

46.8

54.7

May

47.2

48.6

49.0

40.8

41.6

48.9

46.1

54.1

June

46.4

47.0

48.9

45.0

43.9

46.1

45.2

53.4

July

46.3

46.8

49.5

52.4

48.6

46.3

45.4

55.1

August

46.7

48.9

50.5

56.5

52.0

47.2

45.9

55.6

September

47.8

47.6

50.7

59.4

53.5

46.7

45.3

55.5

October

46.8

47.5

49.8

52.6

47.7

48.5

44.2

55.6

November

46.3

47.3

49.6

50.7

48.2

48.2

44.4

55.8

December

45.8

46.4

49.0

51.5

47.7

47.8

44.5

55.9

2024-January

47.2

46.7

49.2

50.4

47.0

49.4

44.3

54.0

February

46.3

46.4

48.0

50.1

48.1

47.9

43.5

54.2

 

2. Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index

 

In February, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 51.4 percent, an increase of 0.7 percentage point from the previous month, higher than the threshold, indicating an accelerated expansion in the non-manufacturing industry.

 

 

By industry, the business activity index for the construction industry was 53.5 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage point from the previous month; that for the service industry was 51.0 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage point from the previous month. From the perspective of industries, the business activity indexes for road transport, air transport, catering, monetary and financial services, ecological conservation and public facilities management, and culture, sports and entertainment industries were within the relatively high expansion range of 55.0 percent and above; the business activity indexes for real estate and services to households were still below the threshold.

 

 

 

The new order index was 46.8 percent, a decrease of 0.8 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the demand in the non-manufacturing market continued to fall. By industry, the new order index for the construction industry came in at 47.3 percent, an increase of 0.6 percentage point from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 46.7 percent, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month.

 

The input price index was 50.6 percent, an increase of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, higher than the threshold, indicating that the overall level of input prices used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities rebounded. By industry, the input price index for the construction industry came in at 52.0 percent, flat from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 50.4 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month.

 

The sales price index was 48.5 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the overall level of non-manufacturing sales prices declined. By industry, the sales price index for the construction industry came in at 48.9 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 48.4 percent, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from the previous month.

 

The employment index was 47.0 percent, flat from the previous month, still below the threshold, indicating that the employment climate of manufacturing enterprises remained unchanged from the previous month. By industry, the employment index for the construction industry came in at 47.6 percent, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 46.9 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from the previous month.

 

The business activity expectation index was 57.7 percent, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, still within the relatively high expansion range, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises maintained strong confidence about the recent market development. By industry, the business activity expectation index for the construction industry came in at 55.7 percent, a decrease of 6.2 percentage points from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 58.1 percent, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month.

 

Main Sub-indexes of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

 

Unit: %

 

Business Activity Index

New Order Index

Input

Price Index

Sales Price Index

Employment Index

Business Activity

Expectation Index

2023-February

56.3

55.8

51.1

50.8

50.2

64.9

March

58.2

57.3

50.3

47.8

49.2

63.3

April

56.4

56.0

51.1

50.3

48.3

62.5

May

54.5

49.5

47.4

47.6

48.4

60.4

June

53.2

49.5

49.0

47.8

46.8

60.3

July

51.5

48.1

50.8

49.7

46.6

59.0

August

51.0

47.5

51.7

50.0

46.8

58.2

September

51.7

47.8

52.5

50.3

46.8

58.7

October

50.6

46.7

49.7

48.6

46.5

58.1

November

50.2

47.2

49.8

48.3

46.9

59.8

December

50.4

47.5

49.6

49.3

47.1

60.3

2024-January

50.7

47.6

49.6

48.9

47.0

59.7

February

51.4

46.8

50.6

48.5

47.0

57.7

 

Other Sub-indexes of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

 

Unit: %

 

New Export Order Index

Existing Order Index

Inventory Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

2023-February

51.9

50.3

48.2

55.2

March

48.1

45.6

47.0

52.4

April

52.1

45.5

47.2

52.4

May

49.7

43.9

47.1

51.9

June

49.0

43.9

47.1

51.9

July

47.7

43.8

45.9

51.4

August

47.9

43.7

46.2

52.0

September

49.4

43.3

46.9

51.3

October

49.1

43.1

46.2

52.0

November

46.8

43.0

46.7

51.8

December

50.9

43.9

46.0

51.0

2024-January

45.2

43.7

47.2

52.0

February

47.3

42.7

46.4

50.3

 

3. Composite PMI Output Index

 

In February, the composite PMI output index was 50.9 percent, flat from the previous month and higher than the threshold, indicating that the overall production and operation of Chinese enterprises continued to expand.

 

 

Annotations:

 

1. Explanatory Notes

 

Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises' purchasing managers, which covers every link of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, circulation and so forth. The PMI is one of the leading indexes commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends and plays an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). If the PMI is above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding over the last month; if below 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in contraction over the last month.

 

2. Statistical Coverage

 

The survey involves 3,200 samples from 31 divisions of the manufacturing industry in the National Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (GB/T4754-2017), as well as 4,300 samples from 43 divisions of the non-manufacturing industry.

 

3. Survey Methods

 

PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in the purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenue of the enterprises.

 

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices directly subordinated to the NBS of China, monthly through the Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

 

4. Calculation Methods

 

(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indexes. The index system of the manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indexes such as production, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchasing price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employment, supplier delivery time, and production and operation expectation. The index system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indexes including business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, input price, sales price, employment, supplier delivery time, and business activity expectation. Sub-indexes adopt the diffusion index calculation method, i.e. percentage of positive answers in a number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of non-manufacturing compound PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.

 

(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI. Manufacturing PMI was calculated according to five diffusion indexes (sub-indexes) and their weights. Five sub-indexes and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new order index weights 30 percent; production index weights 25 percent; employment index weights 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weights 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weights 10 percent. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.

 

(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index. Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion of manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP.

 

5. Seasonal adjustment

 

The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released readings are all seasonally adjusted.