Date

Business Cycle
Signal

Coincident Index
(1996=100)

Leading Index
(1996=100)

Lagging Index
(1996=100)

2007.07

113.3

102.62

104.06

101.66

2007.08

113.3

102.79

104.03

101.87

2007.09

117.3

103.05

103.84

101.85

2007.10

117.3

103.22

103.48

101.76

2007.11

121.3

103.31

102.76

101.71

2007.12

121.3

103.16

101.90

102.07

2008.01

113.3

102.61

101.92

102.08

2008.02

113.3

102.62

102.54

102.38

2008.03

117.3

102.50

102.80

102.41

2008.04

117.3

103.34

102.50

102.90

2008.05

117.3

103.45

102.15

102.69

2008.06

114.7

103.58

101.68

102.19

2008.07

112.0

102.93

100.96

101.09

2008.08

108.0

102.52

100.44

100.48

Macro-economic Climate Indices: The coincident index is the index reflecting the current basic trend of the economy, and it is calculated with the following data: (1) industrial production, (2) employment, (3) social demands (including investment, consumption and foreign trade), and (4) social incomes (including the government taxes, profits of enterprises and income of residents). The leading index is calculated with a group of leading indicators, which take a lead before the coincident index, and is used for forecasting the future economic trend. The lagging index is calculated with the lagging indicators, which lag behind the coincident index, and is mainly used for confirming the peak and valley of the economic cycle.

Please find the compilation methods and summary analysis at www.cemac.org.cn