The Canadian-Chinese SIMP Program
as an Example of Capacity Building
Datuk R. Chander
Statistics Canada
Overview and Background
China＊s statistical system was developed in order to serve the needs of a centrally planned economy; the methods and concepts used were largely based on Marxist economic concepts embodied in the Material Product System (MPS).Data collection was organized largely around a system of complete reporting linked to administrative and accounting records. These essential features of the data collection system have largely remained in place even though there has been a gradual adoption of sample surveys for collection of household data focused on measuring household expenditure and income. However, these household surveys have had limitations in terms of sampling, questionnaire design, and coverage. Enterprise surveys have been introduced in recent years largely to check on data reported via the complete reporting system.
To support data collection, a hierarchical organizational structure was put in place. At the national level, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and its predecessor the State Statistical Bureau (SBS) were assigned responsibility for setting statistical standards and to prepare aggregate tables and national indicators. At the provincial level, Provincial Bureaus of Statistics, with a mirror organizational structure of SSB, were given responsibility for aggregation of data received from lower level ( county and township) statistical offices. The latter entities had a dual responsibility: collection of reporting forms from respondents and the consolidation of the forms for onward transmission to the PBSs.
Since the early 1980s, the NBS has endeavored gradually to adopt international statistical standards and concepts based on international market economy concepts. In pursuit of implementing these modified standards, and in wishing to reform the functioning of the Chinese statistical system, NBS sought and obtained technical assistance from a variety of multilateral and bilateral donors. Much of the assistance centered round training statistical personnel, acquiring knowledge of international practices, and exposing staff to new methods. The knowledge transfer led to adjustments to on-going work programs, the adoption of sample surveys as an adjunct to the system of ※complete reporting§ and in the early 1990s, NBS embarked upon the gradual adoption of the UN System of National Accounts (SNA) as a basis for compiling macro-economic accounts. In the midst of these reforms and changes, NBS retained the hierarchical organizational structure despite increasing concerns about data distortions and misreporting by the lower levels of the statistical system.
The various assistance and cooperation programs with China＊s international partners did not address institutional reforms. Nor were these programs built around a detailed overarching national statistical work program designed to serve the needs of an emerging market economy in which the needs of new stakeholders (the private sector, an external audience and civil society) had to be met.
The Canadian-China Program: Statistical Information Management Program
The Statistical Information Management Program (SIMP) was one of six initiatives included in a Letter of Intent signed by Prime Minister Chr谷tien and Premier Li Peng on November 8, 1994. SIMP was designed as a unique project to assist the NBS in its efforts to reform the statistical system to meet the needs of a socialist market economy.
China＊s statistical system shared a number of features with other transition economies. Many transition economies lacked basic statistical infrastructure in terms of adequate sampling frames, business registers, and advanced data processing capacities. In designing SIMP, strategic considerations underpinning the assistance to the NBS were emphasized. SIMP was designed to be supportive of the broader long-term reforms of the Chinese economy as it moved towards becoming a market economy with a commitment to poverty reduction based on the growth of China's private sector.
The strategy underlying SIMP took account of the need to go beyond strengthening the technical capacity of NBS; it took account of the need for a new management and institutional culture - a corporate culture that emphasized team building, accountability and transparency, and quality enhancement of the data it generated. In this sense, SIMP deviated in its scope from other bilateral and multilateral technical assistance programs by seeking to increase NBS's capacity to improve public management by promoting an environment for evidence based policy making. SIMP was not narrowly confined to a particular set of statistics. The project aimed to promote improved collection, analysis, use, and dissemination of all major statistical information in China. In addition, SIMP went beyond knowledge transfer and focused on the application of such knowledge in the adoption of new methods and approaches. In brief, organizational development, better measurement of the market economy and overall strengthening of the technical and management capacity of the NBS were partly targeted as primary areas for attention.
The CIDA-financed SIMP was the largest bilateral assistance project with NBS. Although the project design was developed carefully and meticulously by Statistics Canada, the design could not anticipate all of the intricate details associated with implementing highly technical operations. In addition, limited initial appreciation of the cultural differences between the two organizations and of the internal functioning of the NBS was an encumbrance. During the first two years of the project, the two bureaus familiarized themselves with each other＊s operations, and established close personal contacts which endured throughout the program and facilitated its success. Several senior-level visits to Statistics Canada were part of this process. These visits exposed the Chinese officials to Canadian practices and set the stage for the first Statistical Policy Seminar, which in turn led to a deeper understanding of modern management practices, including project planning. This period also exposed the Chinese counterparts to statistical requirements of a market economy. Introductory training was provided in: the functioning of the economic system, and in other fields including statistical legislation (which had an impact on China＊s new statistics law); national accounts; enterprise statistics; price statistics; and, survey taking. NBS＊ computing facilities were also reviewed, as were their approaches to statistical training.
NBS＊ absorptive capacity was not able to accommodate all expectations. Furthermore 每across- the board budget cuts by the Chinese government in all agencies, pursuant to a national policy to contain the fiscal deficit, eliminated the possibility of recruiting staff to relieve existing shortages and further exacerbated the problem.
While the activities pursued during the first two years were both appropriate and useful, towards the end of the second year of the program Statistics Canada concluded, with CIDA＊s concurrence, that the introduction of certain changes in the project design and implementation regime were necessary to ensure the achievement of the targeted results. The need for these changes stemmed from several factors. These were: limitations in NBS＊ absorptive capacity; the necessity for more concretely defined goals than was initially possible, to ensure that results-based management outcomes were achieved; and the desirability of strengthening the management capacity of NBS. The changes did not affect the basic program structure, nor the principles underlying its original design. They were normal adjustments to work plans as the program moved forward.
This reassessment resulted in the adoption of a document 每Principles for the Technical Cooperation Program. The document, based on experiences gained to date, spelled out in considerable detail the modalities to be employed in executing the program. This was an important milestone in the cooperation between the two bureaus. The practice of negotiating individual Project Initiation Agreements (PIA) between Statistics Canada and the NBS was instituted. The PIAs were signed by senior officials from Statistics Canada and the NBS, to demonstrate and ensure institutional commitments for the project. Since the achievement of meaningful and clearly defined goals for each project to be pursued required more time and funds than those undertaken in during the first two years, the number of projects had to be scaled back. It needs to be recognized that the introduction of these changes represented, both explicitly and implicitly, the implementation of results-based management at its best.
Following the changes adopted, seven new Project Initiation Agreements were developed in respect of:
1. Human Resource Development Project
2. Financial Management Project
3. National Accounts Project
4. Databank Project
5. Metadata Project
6. Survey Skills Video Project
7. Household Survey Project
SIMP Outcomes
The recently concluded Operational Review of SIMP reveals that the implementation of SIMP has contributed in a significant manner to the overall capacity of the statistical system of China. At the broadest level, it has exposed Chinese officials to ※best practice§ in statistical methods; given them deeper insights into the functioning of a statistical system in a market environment; heightened awareness of the importance of effective human and financial resource management. NBS has internalized many of inputs delivered. The Review indicates that SIMP has laid the foundations for further radical reforms in data gathering methods that are cost effective, technically sound and will help NBS meet the new challenges the Chinese statistical system faces. This is reflected in the successful implementation of the Household Survey pilot project and the commitment by NBS to integrate the Urban/Rural Surveys, the introduction of new sampling procedures that better capture all segments of the population, including the so-called ※floating population§. The foundations for more effective data sharing and dissemination have been laid through the work on the development of a database and accompanying Meta data. Progress achieved under SIMP has contributed to a greater appreciation by NBS managers of the importance of management processes in bringing about organizational effectiveness. NBS has also seen the importance of subscription to international standards that contribute to greater data transparency. Its recent acceptance of the IMF＊s General Data Dissemination Standards represents a major step in this direction.
The progress achieved points to a) strengthened management b) laying the foundation for determining priorities and future work programs c) progress towards meeting international data standards d) greater commitment to an enhancement of data quality and wider dissemination. There are positive indications that the reforms introduced are sustainable. NBS is committed to carry forward the lessons learnt from the different pilot exercises. Specifically, the new financial management systems are being adopted across NBS and have been welcomed by the Ministry of Finance; new Human Resource procedures are now being used; actions are being taken to integrate the Urban and Rural Survey teams; and the Database is being populated with data and being made accessible. It is also being integrated into China＊s E-Government initiative. SIMP has clearly contributed to statistical reforms which can be demonstrated to have a far wider impact on the pace and direction of overall reforms and modernization of China.
Key Lessons
Several aspects of the relationship between Statistics Canada 每 NBS merit comment. The leadership hierarchies on the two sides remained engaged throughout the implementation phase. This was unique in that in most TA projects the interactions are left to technical exchanges between the two parties. A second key element that contributed to smooth implementation was the free exchanges that took place between the Project Managers on the two sides. The Project Managers in turn were effective in coordinating activities and programming events. The PIAs were an extremely useful tool for defining responsibilities, the deliverables by the parties to the agreements, and monitoring implementation.
A general but most important contribution that SIMP has made is to the design of statistical capacity building programs beyond China. A key lesson learnt from SIMP is that it is feasible to design and implement programs that go beyond technical areas into areas that focus on management issues, thereby addressing deep seated issues of effective management and institutional impediments to change and reform. SIMP has thus demonstrated not only the importance of management issues in the context of TA in statistics, but has pointed to the feasibility of handling these issues without intrusion into internal processes unique to an institution. That these aspects featured in SIMP, can be attributed to a number of factors. These included:
• Careful project design and flexibility at the implementation stage;
• The strong and widely acknowledged strength of Statistics Canada as an effective statistical agency both in the professional and management realms;
• The willingness of NBS to address all aspects of capacity building;
• Sustained interactions between the two institutions achieved through a goal oriented approach reflected in the development of the PIAs;
Thus, capacity building efforts mounted under SIMP were more comprehensive and focused on issues of statistical methods, the transfer of these methods and their use ; the application of IT technology, and management strengthening.
Strategic Goals for China＊s Statistical system.
An indirect outcome from SIMP, largely attributable to NBS 每 Statistics Canada interactions, has been a sharpened and heightened awareness about gaps and shortcomings in China＊s statistical system. The Statistical Policy Seminars mounted under SIMP were partly a trigger. NBS has come to recognize the need for establishing strategic goals and it has begun an internal review of the constraints it faces in further reforming the statistical system.
It is also noteworthy that Governmental and Party leaders are now more committed to further strengthening of the statistical system. This is epitomized by the following policy directive emerging from the recent meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China.
※The statistical system should also be improved to enhance monitoring of
economic performance and facilitate information sharing among
economic regulation departments of the Government.§
It leaves no ambiguity about the high priority that is being assigned to the statistical function in the context of overall modernization and reforms. It is the first time in the history of the Party that there has been a call for an acceleration of statistical reforms. In early 2003 the outgoing and incoming Prime Ministers visited NBS HQ and gave clear directives that the pace of reforms be accelerated. NBS was also assured that budgetary resources would be augmented.
The above policy directives can be linked to the Strategic Objectives adopted by NBS. The Objectives respond to many of the challenges NBS faces. Foremost amongst these challenges is the need to move away from a system of complete reporting, to one based on the use of sample surveys for data collection. The current system is resource intensive; it places the prime responsibility for data gathering and processing in the hands of statistical units at the lower levels of government with NBS receiving summary data. Unit records are maintained at the local level, with NBS having little or no control. The lack of direct access to individual records means that NBS is unable to fully validate data reliability, to undertake time series analysis, or engage in cross section analysis. NBS readily acknowledges that the system is open to abuse as lower level units are left to their own devices and in some instances are able to engage in data manipulation for the benefit of local administrations.
Strategic Objectives for China＊s National Statistical System
To build a modern national statistical system characterized by ※hi-tech facilities, quality statisticians, efficient mechanisms and quality information§ which can meet the requirements for socialist market economy in line with China＊s particular conditions and international standards. NBS has elaborated on this goal by identifying six major areas as priorities for development. These are:
To establish a national accounts system which is compatible with international standards and conforms to the needs of sustained economic development. NBS acknowledges that current system deviates from the framework of the 1993 SNA and weaknesses in data.
To establish a scientific methodology system for national statistics. NBS has identified a number of issues requiring attention, these include a) incomplete, not unified and existing standards not fully implemented, b) the system of indicators are not systematic, coordinated, and not standardized; additionally gaps exist along side duplicative collections; c) survey methods are inadequate and contribute to weaknesses in data quality; censuses have become a heavy burden; in addition there are inconsistencies in data derived from different sources. NBS acknowledges the need for the establishment of a unified system of standards and a system of well designed surveys.
To push forward all round informatics development and establish a national statistical information network. NBS has recognized the need for efficient means of data processing, storage, and dissemination. Greater data utilization and sharing is seen as a priority. The development of a national information network is seen as the means to overcoming present limitations. Databanks are viewed as important to the future management of data.
To develop statistics with science and training, establish the mechanisms for building initiative and human resource development, and to bring up a large contingent of high quality statistical professionals. Human resource development through an effective system of statistical education and training are seen as key to increasing the quantity and quality of professionals engaged in data gathering, statistical designers, analysts, and managers.
To enforce the statistical legislation, reform the statistical management system, establish a mechanism to ensure the financial resources, and realize the objectives of the statistical strategy. The existing statistical legislation needs strengthening and the legal powers of NBS need to be enforced. Management systems in place are weak ; the relationship between NBS and statistical agencies at other levels of the government and other ministries are difficult and inadequately coordinated. The division of responsibilities is not clearly defined with some degree of duplication. Clearer demarcation of responsibilities is needed. Data quality remains an issue partly because of resource constraints.
To establish a powerful national statistical information management system in order to ensure data quality. NBS assigns high priority to the issue of improving data quality through effective management and quality control.
NBS has moved beyond a statement of strategic goals. It has undertaken a comprehensive review of the shortcomings of the Chinese statistical system. A variety of remedial measures are under consideration. However, NBS has yet to develop a coherent plan that details the actions that are needed to translate goals into working plans. Translating the strategic goals that NBS has defined into actionable programs will demand the preparation of a detailed Strategic Plan that incorporates a core work plan, an investment program, identifies needed institutional and structural reforms, and the introduction of strong management processes.
It is evident that a carefully crafted and comprehensive Strategic Plan would serve several purposes. These include:
• A vision about the future evolution of the statistical system;
• A detailed business plan that articulates the outputs that the statistical system would generate along with estimates of the investments needed along with an estimate of the human and financial resources needed to implement the plan;
• The Plan would, once approved, represent a Government commitment to provide adequate budget resources;
• The Plan would also serve as a framework for attracting focused external resources by way of technical assistance.
Key Challenges Faced by NBS
In the context of the internal reviews, the senior management of NBS has identified many of the key challenges it faces in efforts to deepen and strengthen the reform process. The analysis identified several major issues demanding urgent attention. These include:
Data demands and Resources
• Human resources: NBS has seen a sizable reduction in staff due to the government restructuring.
• Financial resources: Budget constraints at the Central, provincial and local levels affect the launch of new initiatives and resources for accelerated investment in Informatics
Dual leadership and independent statistics
• Provincial and local statistical offices are under the dual leadership of NBS and provincial or local governments. NBS issues instructions about statistical methodology while the heads of provincial and local offices are appointed and dismissed by provincial and local governments.
• The national statistical programs have to cater to the needs of both the central and local governments on an equal basis. The budget arrangements in place have the central budget cover the cost of surveys, while local budgets cover salaries and office facilities. In developed regions of the country, local budgets also contribute to the cost of surveys.
Sample survey and government administration
• Provincial and local governments are still deeply involved in economic and social management. Governments at all levels require statistics for very small areas and even micro data.
• Ministries need detailed information by industry, by product groups and by small areas for their management as early as possible.
• State-owned enterprises have to report their micro information to the ministries responsible
Traditional statistical system and modern informatics
• Although NBS determines the national informatics strategy with unified standards, implementation is hindered by the delayed inputs from local governments.
• Local statistical offices include additional data requirements in national surveys.
• The system of ※complete reporting§ is employed in respect of a large amount of data that is reported from local statistical offices upward to provincial offices and further to NBS.
• To some extent, different classifications and standards are used in different subject matter areas and in different years. This makes it difficult to set up and maintain a unique database.
NBS and Statistical offices in Ministries
• While NBS is responsible for national accounts and basic statistical programs, ministerial offices play a lead role with other statistics. NBS has a limited role in setting standards pertaining to the latter.
National Office and local offices
• Local statistical offices complain that the national statistical system does not have sufficient consideration of local needs. They further complain that NBS programs are burdensome and do not embody relevant concepts.
Statistical system and law enforcement
• The falsification of statistical figures exists in many localities. While NBS and law enforcement authorities have initiated a number of campaigns and made quality evaluations, the results are not satisfactory
Commercial Accounting and statistics
• Although commercial accounting practices, based on international standards, have been introduced, statistical concepts have yet to be modified and harmonized for reporting purposes.
Subject matter statistics and national accounts
• China＊s current statistical system was established during the period of central planning and was a loose union of subject matter statistics based on the management needs of different ministries.
• The system emphasized the MPS and its stress on the measurement of activities in the material production sphere.
• Despite the introduction of statistical reforms, the basic statistical system has not changed fundamentally.
National and international standards
• Great differences continue to exist between China and international standards in terms of concepts, definitions, scope and coverage.
• National classifications are not been fully aligned with internationally recommended ones. National accounts are broadly based on the SNA but differences exist.
Reform Options Under Consideration by NBS
NBS is exploring a full range of measures to move forward the process of reforming the statistical system. Among the many measures under consideration are:
• A radical restructuring of the system with NBS establishing its own regional offices which would assume responsibility for national data programs. Local governments would use their statistical offices to implement their own programs. The cost of national programs would be wholly met from the Central Government budget. NBS would appoint all heads of Provincial bureaus.
• NBS managed and executed sample surveys would provide both national and provincial aggregates. Provincial and local statistical offices would however be permitted to canvass additional surveys to meet local level needs. NBS would collect and process completed forms directly from respondents as far as possible in order that detailed data sets are available at the central level. With such an arrangement in place, NBS would overcome the problem of misreporting and manipulation of data by local agencies.
• NBS would take steps to introduce standard classifications, concepts and definitions conforming to international standards. If China cannot fully adopt international standards in a short period of time, NBS would work with detailed data and develop conversion tables in order to satisfy different needs. It would obtain the cooperation of all entities engaged in data compilation to adopt these standards. With a restructuring of the statistical system, the responsibilities of NBS and ministries would be redefined. To ensure effective coordination, appropriate mechanisms, including advisory committees would need to be established.
.
• To enable NBS to play a full role in data dissemination, it would establish a database.
• Ongoing statistical programs would be evaluated to eliminate duplicated surveys. At the same time, greater data sharing between NBS and ministries would be developed. The data required at the national level, but not at local levels, would be collected largely through NBS survey organizations. NBS would develop a system of ※cost recovery§ or chargeback for all special collections requested by other agencies.
• An alternative proposal under consideration would leave the present arrangements between the NBS and the provinces in place but NBS would establish its own law enforcement teams to ensure that Provincial and other local statistical offices conform to NBS directives. All staff would be employed and appointed by NBS. This option may be less costly and less radical.
• Given that enterprises are now using commercial accounting standards, NBS recognizes the need to reformulate its data collection to draw upon bookkeeping information. In order to reduce respondent burden, duplicated questionnaires would need to be eliminated. It further recognizes that all questionnaires would need to be designed for with the convenience of respondent in mind rather than that of statisticians. To this end, questionnaires would need to be redesigned on the basis of integration, standardization and coordination for every subject area. Greater attention would be paid to data needed for compilation of national accounts.
• NBS recognizes that skill development of its staff is critical to the reform process and for its professional staff to adopt new ideas. As a part of this effort NBS foresees the need to improve its training activities by updating its training infrastructure and the ways in which training is delivered.
The various proposals under consideration by NBS place emphasis on a combination of partial restructuring of the statistical system, closer supervision of lower level statistical agencies, a system of legal sanctions that penalize offending parties, sample surveys conducted under the direct supervision and control of NBS, and a more systematic enforcement of statistical standards. The proposals also allude to the need for some rationalization of the nature and range of data that ought to be collected.
These are commendable proposals. However, they do not constitute a coherent strategic plan that incorporates a clear vision of the future shape of a viable statistical system that is responsive to the needs of a rapidly changing economy and a social system with marked regional differences. Emerging income disparities between regions, the urban and rural sectors, and occupational groups pose new policy challenges calling for new types of data. The reforms under consideration are of a piece meal nature and are insufficiently integrated. They lack a prioritization of activities within a balanced work program. No attempt has been made to estimate cost of needed investments in both physical and statistical infrastructure, made up of household sample frames, business registers, and the adoption of new classification schemes. The institutional and organizational changes under consideration will need to be accompanied by internal organization restructuring and by the adoption of new management processes. While NBS rightly emphasizes the need for accelerated human resource development through an upgrading of technical skills, there is no indication that training managers will in terms of upgrading management skills and processes will receive focused attention. Breaking away from the legacy of the past will require the introduction of a new culture that puts a premium on data sharing and encourages team efforts as opposed to segmented units that lack a team approach to generating statistical outputs. The educational process needs to go beyond statistical staff to embrace data users who are still conditioned by past approaches.
It should be clearly evident that NBS will need to go beyond the measures now under consideration. It needs to gain access to the unit records thereby gaining the ability to review the raw data, identify outliers, and use statistical editing methods to raise the level of data quality. Adoption of such an approach would redefine the role and functions of both NBS and the other statistical units. A reorientation and restructuring of the statistical system in the manner outlined above is likely to be challenging and may even be resisted as it affects the balance of responsibilities between the center and the provinces. Embarking upon radical reforms of this nature will demand careful preparation and strong support from the highest levels of the Government. To this end, it is imperative that a comprehensive Strategic Plan be developed in consultation with all relevant stakeholders. Such a Plan would need to encompass the entire system going well beyond the role and functions of NBS. The Plan would need to address a variety of issues covering all aspects of the functioning of the system in its entirety.
Strategic Planning: The Way Forward
Strategic Plans are routinely prepared by most national statistical offices in the more developed countries. China has not taken similar steps as yet. The preparation of a Strategic Plan represents a high priority task and its availability would serve as:
• A detailed blue print or guide for the future evolution of the statistical system;
• A detailed business plan that articulates the outputs that the statistical system would generate along with estimates of the investments needed together with the human and financial resources needed to implement the plan;
• The Plan, once approved, would represent a Government commitment to provide adequate budget resources;
The preparation of a Strategic Plan is undoubtedly a complex undertaking. NBS should take note of the fact that The World Bank, in the recent past, has encouraged and assisted developing and transition countries to develop Statistical Master Plans as a means for attracting focused external resources by way of technical assistance. Annex 1 sets out the Guidelines for preparation of such plans.
In the preparation of a Strategic Plan, NBS needs place in the forefront that its overarching objective is to build a sustainable statistical capacity. Looking ahead, the key question that needs to be addressed by those responsible for formulating and charting strategies for statistical development over the medium term is: what package of measures will best contribute to capacity building and make the Chinese statistical system more responsive to changing global conditions which are changing the perceptions about development goals. There are no ready and simplistic answers. However, it is suggested that a broader approach is needed. That approach should encompass three prongs.
The first prong should deal with the need to changing the culture surrounding statistics. Statistical offices, in general, need to better understand the changed circumstances in which they operate. Globalization and economic reforms have brought about a new set of users; there new demands for data series that are linked to the functioning of markets. For these reasons, statistical offices need to accept the demand for transparency and accountability. Again NBS has made a beginning. Equally important are efforts to educate major users about the nature, role and functioning of statistical systems in a market oriented environment. Users need to be disabused of the notion that good statistics are a free commodity.
The second prong should deal with the need to introduce management change by adopting better techniques of budgeting and costing operations as part of the overall programs of public sector reform and the adoption of better governance. It is most commendable that NBS has begun this process under SIMP. The introduction of better management should be recognized as a prerequisite and a first step. Institutional strengthening and organizational reengineering should be seen as essential elements in the efforts at upgrading technical capacities
The third prong in a capacity building strategy must continue to emphasize the development of technical capabilities. However, the pace of development must take full account of the absorptive capacity of the national system. The absorptive capacity must be assessed in terms of available human resources and national budgetary finances.
Based on experience elsewhere, NBS may wish to note that while institutional and organizational structures and resource endowments do matter and contribute to the vibrancy and effectiveness of an organization, they are not sufficient to achieving a fuller capacity to produce statistical outputs efficiently. It is against this broad background that attention needs to be directed towards creating a new management and institutional culture - a corporate culture that emphasizes team building, accountability and transparency, and quality enhancement. Plans for the revitalization of statistical systems can only be viable if they are accompanied by credible national resource commitments supportive of statistical work programs. Institutional reforms and organizational development are central to achieving the key goals contained in the plan. For these reasons, it is appropriate to begin with an assessment of the kind of reforms that are fundamental to achieving the over-arching goals of the plan: the foundations for a sustainable statistical system. Critical to this is the establishment of an appropriate legal framework. Equally important is the restructuring of the statistical system in ways that leads to efficient use of resources through effective management. These are prerequisites to the carrying out of a work program that serves national data needs.
Generally, a further necessary condition that must be satisfied is that the information generated is not only readily available but is also trustworthy. To meet the latter objective, the statistical system should be impartial, operate at arms length from political interests, and contribute to the objectives of good governance based on transparency and accountability.
A national statistical system needs to be supported by an adequate technical infrastructure represented by sampling frames, business registers, classification schemes etc. These constitute the technical infrastructure that needs to be in place for a statistical system to conduct surveys and censuses, set standards for components of the statistical system, lay the basis for effective data dissemination and achieve efficient use of resources. China＊s statistical system has had in the last few years some investment in these areas but other areas such as sampling frames and business registers require substantial investments. As it embarks on a program for revitalization of the system, it will need to invest in a number of critical areas: sampling frames, business registers, classification schemes etc. before it can embark on a serious program of data improvement and gap filling.
Central to a sound Plan is a core work program. Programs should be so designed that they lead to the generation of data to meet basic data needed for Macro-economic management; Preparation of poverty reduction programs; Monitoring progress towards the fulfillment of the Millennium Development Goals; and the Promotion of private sector development. These elements represent in a sense the demand side for data.
The determination of a core work program that satisfies the data needed to meet the above requirements presents challenges. The core work program needs to be balanced in scope and reflect the appropriate priorities of the main stakeholders made up of both domestic public and private sector users. At the same time it should cater to the needs of external data users comprising the major development partners made up of the international agencies and foreign investors. The needs of a new class of international users made up of private investors cannot be ignored if China wishes to continue to attract Foreign Direct Investment flows.
In the formulation of the core work program, NBS needs to have work within the scope of organizing frameworks. For economic statistics, such an organizing framework is provided by the 1993 SNA. A less formal framework for social data is provided by the MDG. These frameworks can be used in the formulation of a core work program utilizing a combination of Censuses; Enterprise and Household Surveys and the fuller exploiting of administrative data sources.
As noted, the 1993 SNA provides the framework for the production of credible national accounts, dependent on the availability of a large body of economic statistics that capture the full range of economic activities and transactions. The SNA thus articulates the full range of information that needs to be assembled through the canvassing of surveys and the tapping of available administrative records. The basic data assembled for the compilation of the national accounts should support other demands for economic data. In the realm of social statistics, a similar rigorous framework is not in place. However, the 8 MDGs, comprising 18 targets and 48 social indicators provide a less formal framework for social data. The 8 goals cover the broad spectrum of elements that impact on the human condition. They encompass poverty, malnutrition and hunger, education, gender equality, infant and child mortality, maternal mortality, combating HIV/AIDS, disease, and the environment. This is not to suggest that NBS should not collect other social statistics; the MDG linked indicators represent in a sense the most crucial indicators.
A related issue concerns the data dissemination function. Dissemination must be seen as more than the publication of statistical reports. Effective dissemination can only be achieved through data sharing by way of providing access to data bases. Such access should however take account of the need to ensure that statistical confidentiality of unit records is maintained as provided for under the law. Failure to guarantee confidentiality of individual records can bring about a loss of confidence in the integrity of the statistical system leading to increased non-response and the consequent deterioration in data quality. There exists a culture of information hoarding, a legacy handed down from an era of central planning. Overcoming this legacy and creating greater transparency will be challenging and will have to be achieved via an educational process and the establishment of clear rules concerning data sharing and dissemination.
An over-riding concern expressed by NBS managers pertains to the issue of data reliability and user confidence in the outputs for which it has responsibility. Overcoming these concerns will call for the institution of an overall data quality assessment program. Most developed statistical systems have such programs in place. Two specific components of an overall quality program merit mention. First, Quality Guidelines need to be established and be accompanied by a system of ＆statistical auditing＊. The focus of statistical auditing in this sense is on the quality of the statistical production process. This implies that it relates primarily to the quality elements ＆timely＊, ＆accurate＊, ＆produced in a cost-effective manner＊ and ＆without too much of a burden for data providers＊. ＆Relevance＊, though an important part of the quality guidelines, is usually not covered in depth by the statistical audits. There are other mechanisms to measure user satisfaction with the output in general and with individual sets of statistics in particular. These too are set out in the business plan. In the Netherlands, the business plan incorporates six elements:
• A relevant work program
• Reduced respondent burden
• Effective statistical information
• Comprehensive quality management systems
• Adequately trained and motivated staff
• An efficient, well managed, flexible organization
As in the Netherlands, similar activities have been underway at Statistics Canada for a number of years.
While NBS has the capacity to carry forward much of the work relating to the preparation of a Strategic Plan, it would greatly benefit from external inputs provided by perhaps a panel of experts. The external costs of such inputs are likely to be modest and could be met from donor programs.
Concluding Remarks
It is undeniable that China＊s statistical system has made commendable progress. Yet many challenges remain. These are recognized by the leadership of NBS and are not insurmountable. NBS is favorably positioned to pursue reforms: it has a management that is keen on undertaking radical reforms; it has the necessary political support signaled and mandated by the nation＊s leadership and it has the goodwill, encouragement and support of its international partners. Given these combination of factors, the prospects for reforms are bright.
ANNEX
ANNEX 1
THE WORLD BANK: STATCAP MASTER PLAN
Purpose
The STATCAP Master Plan (SMP) provides the base country situation and defines the progress that can be made in a country, based on the evaluation of: the country＊s national statistical system, identification of weaknesses and gaps, and the assessment of the absorption capacity; and sets out a medium- term strategy for creating the necessary capacity to produce comprehensive, quality and relevant economic and social data for policy and decision making. It sets out a work program designed to generate data for:
• Macro-economic management;
• Preparation, implementation, and monitoring of poverty reduction programs;
• Monitoring national progress towards the fulfillment of the Millennium Development Goals;
• Promotion of private sector development;
• International institutions.
The Plan incorporates proposals for institutional strengthening aimed at building sustainable national statistical capabilities through human and technological resources development, and the adoption of sound management practices, and international statistical standards. The SMP provides the rationale for the proposed investment operation and supplies the essential background information for the Task team leader needed to prepare the Project Appraisal Document (PAD). The structure of the SMP is designed to answer the PAD preparation needs.
The Process and Coverage
• The SMP covers the entire national statistical system. The Master Plan has national ownership but may be prepared with assistance from development partners. The World Bank could provide financial assistance in the preparation of the Plan through the Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building or another project preparation facility.
• The SMP builds upon existing national overall strategies and capabilities. It involves the evaluation of data users＊ needs as well as data providers＊ means, through a participatory process with national stakeholders and international donors.
• The preparation of the SMP begins with a full evaluation of the existing state of the statistical system in the prospective borrowing country, taking account of strengths and weaknesses, the extent to which the statistical system conforms to domestic data needs and international best practice in terms of standards and methodologies concerning data production and dissemination.
• The Plan proceeds to set out a viable, technically sound and user-oriented medium term work program with planned actions covering both data production and dissemination, and institutional reforms aimed at achieving cost effective and efficient approaches. The draft SMP should be validated through consultations with all major stakeholders and costed both in terms of domestic and external resources.
• The Plan takes a long-term perspective to cover the normal cycle of statistical activities, including population and other censuses. It is likely that any detailed expenditure plans it includes will cover shorter periods of time to fit in with other planning cycles such as those for a PRSP or MTEF.
Part 1: Introduction: Current Status and Assessment
1 Background and Process
Summary of recent related government-led processes such as PRSP or other national strategies, CAS, MTEF, MDG, and their link to statistics
Summary of government＊s statistical development strategy
Past and ongoing donor assistance in statistics, including WB interventions, with an outline of relevant projects and financing. Lessons learned.
Description of the Process of preparing the SMP, including consultation with stakeholders
Evaluation of the Current statistical system (SWOT analysis)
Statistical legislation and degree to which system is independent
Description of the system: the main data producing agencies and division of responsibilities.
2.2.1 Central statistical agency
2.2.2 Central bank
2.2.3 Ministries of Planning and Finance
2.2.4 Other line ministries (e.g., Health, Education, Agriculture, Labor)
2.2.5 Other agencies
2.3 Mechanisms for coordinating statistical activities
2.3.1 Mechanisms for coordinating statistical activities
2.3.2 Mechanisms for promoting consultation between users and providers
2.4 Adequacy of resources and institutional effectiveness
2.4.1 Adequacy of resources (human, financial, logistics, management, computing)
2.4.2 Management, including human resource management
2.4.3 Dissemination and release policy
2.4.4 Views of users 每 public and private sector
2.5 Data quality and standards
2.5.1 Methodological soundness
2.5.2 Balance between national and international standards
2.5.3 Quality awareness
2.5.4 Adherence to professional ethics and international standards
2.6 Key outputs versus demand
2.6.1 Adequacy of outputs in terms of Macro-economic management; Preparation of poverty reduction programs; Monitoring progress towards the fulfillment of the Millennium Development Goals;
2.6.2 Assessment of relevance, accuracy, and reliability of data
Part II: A CORE PROGRAM/PROJECT
Outline of strategic development plan
Proposals for Institutional strengthening
Proposed sequencing of activities.
Rationale
Intermediate targets and triggers
Funding and sustainability 每 both domestic and external sources
Risks and assumptions
Assessment against alternative strategic choices
Time-bound implementation program
Improving policy, regulatory, and institutional framework
Actions and timeframe
Proposed outputs with targets
Benefits and outcomes
Statistical infrastructure development
Actions and timeframe
Proposed outputs with targets
Benefits and outcomes
Upgrading/developing statistical operations
Actions and timeframe
Proposed outputs with targets
Benefits and outcomes
Investment in physical infrastructure and equipment
Actions and timeframe
Proposed outputs with targets
Benefits and outcomes
Investment and Financing Plan
Input requirements
Capital expenditures (works and equipment)
Recurrent expenditures
Technical assistance
Financing plan
Government budget
Donors
Detailed budget
Cost-effectiveness analysis
Implementation Plan
Mechanisms for implementing the master plan
Executing agencies
Management and coordination
Implementation alternatives considered and rejected
Sustainability issues
Monitoring and evaluation
Mechanisms for monitoring and reporting progress
Summary of targets and indicators
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