China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center (CEMAC): The entrepreneur confidence index (ECI) reached 123.0 in the first quarter of 2012, increased 2.1 points over the previous quarter. Of which, the current ECI was 121.2, dropped 0.8 points quarter-on-quarter, expected ECI was 124.2, increased 4.0 points quarter-on-quarter.

In terms of different industries, the rank of ECIs followed by the information transmission and computer services and software industry, social services, wholesale and retail trade, hotel and catering services, construction, industry, transportation, storage and postal industry, and real estate was 155.6, 138.4, 133.0, 130.0, 125.6, 120.5, 118.0 and 86.5 respectively. As compared with the results of the fourth quarter in 2011, the ECIs of wholesale and retail trade remained at the same level, that of social services, real estate, industry, and construction increased 7.9, 7.5, 3.3 and 2.0 points respectively, that of transportation, storage and postal industry, hotel and catering services, information transmission and computer services and software industry declined 4.1, 2.1 and 1.5c points respectively.

In terms of different types of registration, the ECIs of state-owned enterprises, collective-owned enterprises, joint-stock cooperative enterprises, joint ventures, limited liability companies, cooperation limited, private enterprises, enterprises with funds from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, and foreign funded enterprises was 126.8, 110.8, 119.7, 117.1, 120.0, 126.8, 118.9, 122.2 and 119.4 in the first quarter. As compared with the fourth quarter of previous year, the ECIs of enterprises with funds from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan remained the same level, that of joint-stock cooperative enterprises, state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, limited liability companies, cooperation limited, collective-owned enterprises, and joint ventures went up by 9.2, 5.5, 5.2, 3.5, 2.8, 2.5 and 2.2 points respectively, while that of foreign funded enterprises dropped 5.3 points.

In terms of different enterprise sizes, the ECIs of small, medium and large-sized enterprises was 116.4, 123.2 and 129.0 respectively, increased 4.2, 1.1 and 5.2 points over the fourth quarter in 2011.

In terms of different regions, the BCI of central region was higher than the eastern and western regions. The BCIs (Business Climate Index) of eastern, central and western regions stood at 119.9, 128.9 and 121.1 respectively.

Annotations:

1. Calculation Methods Improvement

In order to more fully reflect the anticipation of business sentiment survey on the economic situation, learn from the mature experience of international business sentiment survey authority, starting from the first quarter of 2012, we improved the calculation method of the business climate index, i.e. the ECI has been published entirely in accordance with entrepreneurs judgments The preparation of the current situation, improve to the judgment of the current situation and future expectations, and give the expected relatively higher weight. Specifically, the ECI is the weighted average of current business climate index (used to reflect the entrepreneur's judgment on current business good or bad conditions) and the expected business climate index (mainly used to reflect the entrepreneur level of optimism about the future of corporate business expected), the current ECI weight of 40 percent, the other is 60 percent. According to the definition of index defined after improvement, quarterly ECIs in 2011 are as follows:

2. Explanatory Notes

The entrepreneur confidence index is comprehensively reflects the industry situation and the expected direction, through out by the good or bad judgments on the macro economic situation from the entrepreneurs from the business climate survey. The range of ECI is between 0-200, 100 as the critical value, when the index is greater than 100, reflecting the entrepreneur confidence state is good and optimistic, the more close to 200 the higher the level of optimism; less than 100, reflect the state of the entrepreneur confidence is poor and pessimistic, closer to 0 reflect deeper pessimistic.

3. Statistical Coverage

The survey covers eight sectors: industry, construction, wholesale and retail trade, transportation, storage and postal services, hotel and catering industry, information transmission software and IT services, real estate, and social services. Each industry is according to the scale of the proportion of a sample.

4. Survey Methods

Samples were selected by adopting stratified, sample size is proportional to the probability sampling methods selected for the survey sampling method, the national total sample size stands for 21000 enterprises. The responsible persons report online directly.

5. Survey content

Survey involved in the business running, enterprises operation, profitability, employment, investment, finance, inventory and other production and management problems.

6. Calculation Methods

The entrepreneur confidence index = 0.4×Current ECI +0.6×Expected ECI

Current ECI = the proportion of good by the answer from the responsible persons in charge of the enterprise operating conditions in the current quarter - poor proportion of +100

Expected ECI = the proportion of good by the answer from the responsible persons in charge of the enterprise operating conditions in the next quarter - poor proportion of +100

7. Classification of Eastern, Central and Western Regions

Eastern regions including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, Hainan; central regions including Shanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan; western regions including Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang.