National Economy Sustained a Steady Recovery in July
National Bureau of Statistics of China
14 August 2020
In July, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, all regions and departments coordinated efforts to advance both the epidemic prevention and control and the economic and social development. The production and supply continued to recover, market demands gradually picked up, employment and prices were generally stable, new driving forces grew and thrived, and market confidence was boosted. The national economy maintained a trend of steady recovery.
1. The Industrial Production Grew Steadily, and Equipment Manufacturing and High-tech Manufacturing Witnessed Fast Growth.
In July, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 4.8 percent year on year, the same level as that of June, or up by 0.98 percent month on month. In the first seven months, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size dropped by 0.4 percent year on year, a decline narrowed by 0.9 percentage points compared with that of the first six months. An analysis by types of ownership in July showed that, the value added of the state holding enterprises went up by 4.1 percent year on year; share-holding enterprises up by 4.2 percent; enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan up by 7.6 percent; and private enterprises up by 4.2 percent. In terms of sectors, the value added of the mining went down by 2.6 percent, the manufacturing up by 6.0 percent and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water up by 1.7 percent. In July, the value added of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew by 13.0 percent and 9.8 percent year on year respectively, 8.2 percentage points and 5.0 percentage points faster than that of the industrial enterprises above the designated size. In terms of output of products, the output of excavating and shoveling machinery, automobiles, industrial robots, smart phones, and micro computers grew by 46.1 percent, 26.8 percent, 19.4 percent, 19.2 percent and 17.8 percent respectively.
In the first six months, the total profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size was 2,511.5 billion yuan, down by 12.8 percent year on year, or a decline narrowed by 6.5 percentage points compared with that of the first five months. In June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size went up by 11.5 percent year on year, 5.5 percentage points faster compared with that of May.
2. The Recovery of Services Production was Accelerated with Modern Service Industries Growing Well.
In July, the Index of Services Production increased by 3.5 percent year on year, 1.2 percentage points higher than that of June. In the first seven months, the Index of Services Production dropped by 4.7 percent year on year, 1.4 percentage points slower than the decline of the first six months. By main sectors, in July, the production index for information transmission, software and information technology services went up by 13.7 percent year on year, the same level as that in June; and the production index for financial intermediation, real estate, and other services went up by 10.4 percent, 7.8 percent and 3.3 percent respectively, or 2.9 percentage points, 3.9 percentage points and 2.3 percentage points faster than that of June respectively. In July, the Business Activity Index for services was 53.1 percent, which was above the threshold. By sectors, the Business Activity Index for postal service and express delivery, accommodation, catering, telecommunication and securities was higher than in June with the total business increasing slightly. The Business Activity Index for culture, sports and entertainment, and that for resident services were 51.9 percent and 51.1 percent respectively, 6.1 percentage points and 1.9 percentage points higher than that in June. In the first six months, business revenue of services enterprises above the designated size dropped by 4.7 percent year on year, a decline narrowed by 1.7 percentage points compared with that of the first five months. Specifically, the business revenue of information transmission, software and information technology services grew by 9.7 percent.
3. The Market Sales Continued to Pick up, and the Year-on-year Growth Rate of Monthly Retail Sales of Goods Shifted from Negative to Positive.
In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,220.3 billion yuan, down by 1.1 percent year on year, a decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared with that in June, and the month-on-month growth was 0.85 percent. In the first seven months, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 20,445.9 billion yuan, down by 9.9 percent year on year, a decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points over the first six months. In July, analyzed by different areas, the retail sales in urban areas reached 2,802.5 billion yuan, down by 1.1 percent year on year, and the retail sales in rural areas reached 417.8 billion yuan, down by 1.3 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the income of the catering was 328.2 billion yuan, down by 11.0 percent; and the retail sales of goods were 2,892.0 billion yuan, up by 0.2 percent, shifting from negative to positive for the first time this year. The retail sales of goods for basic living grew fast. In July, among the retail sales by businesses above the designated size, that of beverage, grain, oil and food and articles for daily use went up by 10.7 percent, 6.9 percent and 6.9 percent year on year respectively. In July, sales of upgraded consumer goods continued to grow with that of automobiles went up by 12.3 percent, while it was down by 8.2 percent in June; and that of communication equipment and cosmetics went up by 11.3 percent and 9.2 percent respectively. The online retail sales continued to improve. The online retail sales in the first seven months reached 6,078.5 billion yuan, up by 9.0 percent year on year, 1.7 percentage points faster than that of the first six months. Of the total, the online retail sales of physical goods went up by 15.7 percent, 1.4 percentage points faster than the first six months.
4.The Decline of Investment in Fixed Assets Continued to Narrow Down, and Investment in High-tech Industries and Social Sectors Grew Fast.
In the first seven months, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 32,921.4 billion yuan, down by 1.6 percent year on year, or a decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared with that of the first six months; and the month-on-month growth in July was 4.85 percent. Specifically, the investment in infrastructure dropped by 1.0 percent year on year, and in manufacturing down by 10.2 percent, the decline narrowed by 1.7 percentage points and 1.5 percentage points respectively compared with that of the first six months. The investment in real estate development went up by 3.4 percent, 1.5 percentage points faster than that of the first six months. The floor space of commercial buildings sold reached 836.31 million square meters, down by 5.8 percent year on year, and the total sales of commercial buildings were 8,142.2 billion yuan, down by 2.1 percent, the decline narrowed by 2.6 percentage points and 3.3 percentage points respectively compared with that of the first six months. By industries, the investment in the primary industry grew by 7.7 percent, 3.9 percentage points faster than that of the first six months; that in the secondary industry dropped by 7.4 percent, a decline narrowed by 0.9 percentage points compared with that of the first six months; and that in the tertiary industry went up by 0.8 percent, while that of the first six months was down by 1.0 percent. The investment in high-tech industries went up by 8.0 percent, 1.7 percentage points faster than that of the first six months. Specifically, the investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services grew by 7.4 percent and 9.1 percent respectively. In terms of high-tech manufacturing, the investment in manufacturing of medicines and manufacturing of electronic and communication equipment grew by 14.7 percent and 7.3 percent respectively. In terms of high-tech services, the investment in e-commerce services and services for commercialization of scientific and technological research findings grew by 26.4 percent and 24.4 percent respectively. The investment in social sectors went up by 8.7 percent, 3.4 percentage points faster than that in the first six months. Specifically, the investment in health sector and in education sector went up by 18.2 percent and 13.5 percent respectively, or 3.0 percentage points and 2.7 percentage points faster than that of the first six months. The investment grew with strong momentum. In the first seven months, the total planned investment in newly-started projects grew by 15.8 percent year on year, and funds in place for investment grew by 2.1 percent.
5. The Import and Export of Goods Grew Fast and the Vitality of Trade Entities Increased.
In July, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 2,927.0 billion yuan, an increase of 6.5 percent year on year. Specifically, the total value of exports was 1,684.6 billion yuan, up by 10.4 percent; the total value of imports was 1,242.4 billion yuan, up by 1.6 percent. The trade balance was 442.2 billion yuan in surplus, 113.3 billion yuan more than that in June. In the first seven months, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 17,165.0 billion yuan, down by 1.7 percent year on year. Specifically, the value of exports was 9,398.1 billion yuan, down by 0.9 percent; the value of imports was 7,766.9 billion yuan, down by 2.6 percent. The trade pattern continued to adjust with vitality of entities enhanced. In the first seven months, the value of imports and exports of general trade accounted for 60.3 percent of the total value of imports and exports, 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The total value of imports and exports by private enterprises accounted for 45.6 percent of the total value of imports and exports, 3.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year.
6. The Employment was Generally Stable with the Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate the Same as the Previous Month.
In the first seven months, the newly increased employed people in urban areas numbered 6.71 million, 1.96 million less than that in the same period last year. In July, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.7 percent, the same as that of June, among which, the surveyed unemployment rate for population aged from 25 to 59 was 5.0 percent, down by 0.2 percentage points; while the surveyed youth unemployment rate rose slightly. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.8 percent, the same as that in June. In July, the employees of enterprises worked averagely 46.8 hours per week, the same as that in June.
7. The Growth of Consumer Price was Basically Stable, and the Decline of Producer Prices for Industrial Products Narrowed.
In July, the consumer price went up by 2.7 percent year on year, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month, or up by 0.6 percent month on month. For the first seven months, the consumer price went up by 3.7 percent year on year, 0.1 percentage points lower than that of the first six months, maintaining overall stability. Grouped by commodity categories, in July, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol went up by 10.2 percent year on year; clothing down by 0.5 percent; housing down by 0.7 percent; articles and services for daily use down by 0.1 percent; transport and communication down by 4.4 percent; education, culture and recreation up by 0.3 percent; medical services and health care up by 1.6 percent; other articles and services up by 5.1 percent. Among the prices for food, tobacco and alcohol, the price for pork went up by 85.7 percent, fresh vegetables up by 7.9 percent, grain up by 1.6 percent and fresh fruits down by 27.7 percent. Core CPI excluding the prices of food and energy went up by 0.5 percent, 0.4 percentage points lower than that in June.
In July, the producer prices for industrial products went down by 2.4 percent year on year, a decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared with that in June, or up by 0.4 percent month on month. The purchasing prices for industrial producers went down by 3.3 percent year on year, a decline narrowed by 1.1 percentage points compared with that of June, or up by 0.9 percent month on month. For the first seven months, the producer prices for industrial products and the purchasing prices for industrial producers went down by 2.0 percent and 2.7 percent year on year respectively.
Generally speaking, the national economy sustained a steady recovery with the performance of the main economic indicators improving in July. However, given the continuous spread of COVID-19 globally, the world economic situation is severe and complicated; and the coexistence of structural, systematic and cyclical contradictions at home raised great difficulties and challenges to development. For the next step, under the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, and following the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, we must stick to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, firmly implement the strategy of expanding domestic demands, deepen the supply-side structural reform, enhance the reform and opening-up, and further energize market entities. We must facilitate the economic circulation, maintain security in six areas (residential employment, people’s livelihood, market entities, food and energy security, stability of industrial and supply chains, and operations at grassroots levels) and promote stability on six fronts (employment, finance, foreign trade, foreign investment, domestic investment, and market expectations), consolidate and further our gains in epidemic prevention and control and in economic recovery so as to meet the targets for the economic and social development.
Notes:
1. The growth rate of value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are real growth by using comparable prices. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.
2. Industrial enterprises above designated size are industrial enterprises with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan.
As industrial enterprises above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year-on-year growth rates like that of products output, are as consistent as possible with the current period and different from the coverage of the data published last year. The main reasons are as follows: First, the statistical units change. Every year, some enterprises are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises are removed from the survey because of downsizing. Besides, enterprises that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, canceled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact. Second, duplicated outputs across regions of enterprise groups have been removed based on the ad hoc surveys since duplication was found in the products output of some enterprise groups.
3. The Index of Services Production is the change of production in the reporting period compared to the base period with the price factors deducted.
4. The scope of the total retail sales of consumer goods include all legal entities, establishments and self-employed individuals involved in retail trades or providing catering services. Specifically, businesses above the designated size include wholesale enterprises (businesses), retail enterprises (businesses) and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses) with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan, 5 million yuan and 2 million yuan respectively.
As the wholesale, retail, and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses) above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year-on-year growth rates like that of the retail sales of consumer goods by businesses above the designated size is consistent with the current period and different from the coverage of data published last year. The main reasons are as follows: every year, some enterprises (businesses) are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises (businesses) are removed from the survey because of downsizing. Besides, enterprises (businesses) that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, canceled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact.
Online retail sales refer to the retail sales of goods and services realized through internet trading platforms (including self-built websites and third-party platforms). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (e.g. virtual goods, services goods).
The total retail sales of consumer goods include the online retail sales of physical goods, but not the non-physical goods.
Data of the total retail sales of consumer goods in 2019 are revised according to the results of the fourth national economic census. Monthly growth rate in 2020 is calculated on a comparable basis.
5. The data of investment in fixed assets of the same period last year are revised according to the results of the fourth national economic census, the statistical law enforcement and inspection, and the regulations of statistical programmes. The growth rates are calculated on a comparable basis.
6. Data of imports and exports are from the General Administration of Customs. Data of newly increased employed people in urban areas are from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security.
7. Employed people refer to people aged 16 and above who have the ability to work and engage in gainful employment for remuneration payment or business income.
8. Due to the rounding-off reasons, the subentries may not add up to the aggregate totals.
In case of any differences between English translation and the original Chinese text, the Chinese edition shall prevail。