National Economy Sustained the Momentum of Stable and Sound Development in the First Three Quarters of 2017

National Bureau of Statistics of China

19 October 2017

Since the beginning of this year, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments thoroughly implemented the new concepts of development, adhered to the general working guideline of making progress while maintaining stability, focused on supply-side structural reform, appropriately expanded the aggregate demand, deepened reform and innovation, reinvigorated real economy, guarded against and defused risks, and strengthened guidance on expectations. As a result, the national economy grew steadily with continuously optimizing structure, rapidly growing new driving forces and remarkably improving quality and efficiency, sustaining the momentum of stable and sound development.

According to the preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the first three quarters of this year was 59,328.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9 percent at comparable prices, growing at the same speed as that in the first half of this year, or 0.2 percentage point higher than the same period last year. Specifically, the value added of the primary industry was 4,122.9 billion yuan, up by 3.7 percent year-on-year; that of the secondary industry was 23,810.9 billion yuan, up by 6.3 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 31,395.1 billion yuan, up by 7.8 percent. The GDP for the third quarter of 2017 grew by 6.8 percent year-on-year, maintaining a medium-high growth rate which stayed within the range of 6.7 percent to 6.9 percent for nine consecutive quarters.

1. Grain Production Showed Good Momentum and Animal Husbandry Grew Stably.

The total output of summer grain was 140.52 million tons, an increase of 1.31 million tons, up by 0.9 percent. The output of early rice was 31.74 million tons, a decrease of 1.04 million tons, down by 3.2 percent. The autumn grain production is expected to get a good harvest. In the first three quarters of 2017, the total output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry reached 58.77 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percent. The output of pork reached 37.17 million tons, up by 0.7 percent. There were 427.97 million pigs registered, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percent and 482.24 million pigs slaughtered, a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percent.

2. Industrial Production Accelerated with Optimizing Structure and Improving Efficiency.

The total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size in the first three quarters was up by 6.7 percent year-on-year in real terms, 0.7 percentage point higher than the same period last year. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added of state holding enterprises went up by 6.8 percent; collective enterprises up by 0.3 percent; share-holding enterprises up by 6.8 percent; and enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan up by 7.1 percent. In terms of sectors, the value added of mining industry was down by 1.6 percent year-on-year; manufacturing up by 7.3 percent and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water up by 8.4 percent. The industrial development moved towards the medium-high level. In the first three quarters, the value added of high-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry grew by 13.4 percent and 11.6 percent year-on-year respectively, 6.7 percentage points and 4.9 percentage points higher than that of the industrial enterprises above designated size. In the first three quarters, the sales-output ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 97.8 percent. In September, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size was up by 6.6 percent year-on-year, 0.6 percentage point higher than that of last month, or up by 0.56 percent month-on-month. In September, the Purchasing Managers’ Index was 52.4 percent, 0.7 percentage point higher than August, reaching the highest point since May 2012.

In the first eight months, the profits made by industrial enterprises above designated size stood at 4,921.4 billion yuan, up by 21.6 percent year-on-year. The profit rate from principal business of the industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.13 percent, 0.45 percentage point higher than the same period last year. Specifically, the profits grew by 24 percent year-on-year in August, 7.5 percentage points higher than that in the previous month.

3. Service Sector Maintained Rapid Development and the Business Activity Index Continued to Grow.

In the first three quarters, the Index of Services Production increased by 8.3 percent year-on-year, 0.2 percentage point higher than the same period last year. Transport, storage and postal services, information transmission, software and information technology services, and rental and business services enjoyed a fast growth. In September, the Index of Services Production grew by 8.3 percent year-on-year, maintained the same level as last month, or 0.2 percentage point higher than September 2016. In the first eight months, the operating revenues of services enterprises above designated size increased by 13.5 percent year-on-year, 3.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the operating profits grew by 22.8 percent year-on-year, 22.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

In September, business activity index for services stood at 54.4 percent, 1.8 percentage points higher than August and 2.1 percentage points higher than September last year. Specifically, the business activity index for sectors such as wholesale, telecommunications, broadcast, television and satellite transmission services, internet and software information technology services, monetary and financial services, capital markets services and insurance stayed within the prosperous range of 60 percent and above. The New Order Index for services and the Business Activities Expectation Index were 51.5 percent and 60.8 percent respectively, 1.2 percentage points and 0.7 percentage point higher than last month respectively.

4. The Growth of Investment in Fixed Assets Stabilized with a Slight Slowdown and the Investment Structure was Optimized.

In the first three quarters, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 45,847.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.5 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than that in the same period last year. Specifically, the investment by the state holding enterprises reached 16,816.4 billion yuan, a rise of 11.0 percent; private investment reached 27,752.0 billion yuan, up by 6.0 percent, accounting for 60.5 percent of the total investment. Specifically, the investment in the primary industry was 1,497.3 billion yuan, up by 11.8 percent; the secondary industry 17,178.7 billion yuan, up by 2.6 percent, of which, that in manufacturing was 14,081.9 billion yuan, up by 4.2 percent; and the tertiary industry 27,171.8 billion yuan, an increase of 10.5 percent. Specifically, the investment in infrastructure was 9,965.2 billion yuan, an increase of 19.8 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than the same period last year. The investment in high-end manufacturing and enterprises technological upgrading grew rapidly, while investment in energy-intensive industry slowed down. In the first three quarters, the investment in high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and technological upgrading of manufacturing increased by 18.4 percent, 8.3 percent and 12.1 percent year-on –year respectively, while the investment in energy-intensive manufacturing decreased by 1.9 percent year-on-year. The funds in place for investment in fixed assets reached 45,700.7 billion yuan, up by 3.3 percent year-on-year, 1.9 percentage points higher than that in the first half year. The total planned investment in newly-started projects was 37,634.7 billion yuan, an increase of 2.4 percent year-on-year. In September, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased by 0.56 percent month-on-month.

5. The Investment in Real Estate Development Grew Stably and the Floor Space of Commercial Buildings for Sale Continued to Decrease.

In the first three quarters, the total investment in real estate development was 8,064.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 8.1 percent, 2.3 percentage points higher than that in the same period last year. In particular, the investment in residential buildings went up by 10.4 percent. The floor space of houses newly started was 1,310.33 million square meters, up by 6.8 percent year-on-year. Specifically, the floor space of residential buildings newly started went up by 11.1 percent. The floor space of commercial buildings sold was 1,160.06 million square meters, up by 10.3 percent, of which the floor space of residential buildings sold grew by 7.6 percent. The total sales of commercial buildings were 9,190.4 billion yuan, up by 14.6 percent. Specifically, the sales of residential buildings were up by 11.4 percent. The land space purchased by real estate development enterprises was 167.33 million square meters, up by 12.2 percent year-on-year. By the end of September, the floor space of commercial buildings for sale was 611.40 million square meters, 12.12 million square meters less than the end of last month. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises in the first three quarters reached 11,309.5 billion yuan, up by 8.0 percent year-on-year.

6. The Market Sales Continued to Grow Rapidly and Online Retailing Showed Strong Momentum.

In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 26,317.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year rise of 10.4 percent, growing at the same speed as that of the same period last year. Specifically, the retail sales of consumer goods by units above the designated size stood at 11,775.1 billion yuan, up by 8.5 percent. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales in urban areas reached 22,559.2 billion yuan, up by 10.1 percent, and the retail sales in rural areas stood at 3,758.6 billion yuan, up by 12.1 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the income of catering industry was 2,842.7 billion yuan, up by 11.0 percent; and the retail sales of goods were 23,475.1 billion yuan, up by 10.3 percent. In particular, the retail sales of units above the designated size reached 11,071.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.5 percent. The sales of upgraded consumer goods witnessed a fast growth. Specifically, the sales of sports and recreational articles grew by 17.4 percent, cosmetics up by 12.1 percent and construction and decoration materials rose by 12.6 percent. In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 10.3 percent year-on-year, 0.2 percentage point higher than that in August, or up by 0.90 percent month-on-month.

In the first three quarters, the online retail sales reached 4,878.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 34.2 percent, or 8.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In particular, the online retail sales of physical goods were 3,682.6 billion yuan, an increase of 29.1 percent, accounting for 14.0 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods, or 2.3 percentage points higher than that in the same period last year, while the online retail sales of non-physical goods were 1,196.1 billion yuan, an increase of 52.8 percent.

7. Imports and Exports Grew Rapidly and the Structure of Foreign Trade Continued to Improve.

The total value of imports and exports in the first three quarters was 20,293.0 billion yuan, an increase of 16.6 percent year-on-year. Specifically, the total value of exports was 11,163.0 billion yuan, up by 12.4 percent; the total value of imports was 9,129.9 billion yuan, an increase of 22.3 percent. The trade balance was 2,033.1 billion yuan in surplus. The import and export of general trade occupied a larger proportion. In the first three quarters, the import and export of general trade grew by 18.1 percent, accounting for 56.6 percent of the total value, 0.7 percentage point higher than the same period last year. As the major exported goods, the export of mechanical and electrical products grew by 13.0 percent in the first three quarters, accounting for 57.5 percent of the total export value. The import and export to some countries along the “Belt and Road” witnessed a fast growth. In the first three quarters, the import and export to Russia, Poland and Kazakhstan increased by 27.7 percent, 24.8 percent, 41.1 percent respectively. In September, the total value of imports and exports was 2,458.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.6 percent. Of this total, the value of exports was 1,326.0 billion yuan, up by 9.0 percent; and that of imports was 1,133.0 billion yuan, up by 19.5 percent.

In the first three quarters, the export delivery value of the industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 9,427.0 billion yuan, up by 10.7 percent year-on-year. In September, the export delivery value of the industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 1,190.6 billion yuan, up by 9.8 percent.

8. The Consumer Price Rose Mildly and the Industrial Product Prices Rose with Fluctuation.

In the first three quarters, the consumer price went up by 1.5 percent year-on-year. Specifically, the price went up by 1.6 percent in the urban areas and 1.1 percent in the rural areas. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol were down by 0.6 percent year-on-year; clothing up by 1.3 percent; housing up by 2.5 percent; articles and services for daily use up by 0.9 percent; transportation and communication up by 1.1 percent; education, culture and recreation up by 2.5 percent; health care up by 5.7 percent; other articles and services up by 2.6 percent. In terms of food, tobacco and alcohol prices, prices for grain went up by 1.5 percent, pork down by 8.7 percent, fresh vegetables down by 8.8 percent. In September, the consumer price went up by 1.6 percent year-on-year, 0.2 percentage point lower than that of last month and up by 0.5 percent month-on-month.

In the first three quarters, the producer prices for industrial products went up by 6.5 percent year-on-year. The prices in September grew by 6.9 percent year-on-year, 0.6 percentage point higher than that of last month or up by 1.0 percent month-on-month. In the first three quarters, the purchasing prices for industrial producers grew by 8.4 percent year-on-year. In September, the prices went up by 8.5 percent year-on-year or 1.2 percent month-on-month.

9. The Income Growth of Urban and Rural Residents Accelerated and the Rural- Urban Income Gap Continued to be Narrowed.

In the first three quarters, the national per capita disposable income was 19,342 yuan, a nominal growth of 9.1 percent year-on-year or a real increase of 7.5 percent after deducting price factors, 1.2 percentage points higher compared with the same period last year. In terms of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of the urban residents was 27,430 yuan, a real growth of 6.6 percent after deducting price factors. The per capita disposable income of the rural residents was 9,778 yuan, a growth of 7.5 percent in real terms. The per capita income of the urban residents was 2.81 times of that of the rural residents, 0.01 less than the same period last year. The median of the national per capita disposable income was 16,780 yuan, a nominal increase of 7.4 percent year-on-year. The per capital consumption expenditure was 13,162 yuan, a nominal growth of 7.5 percent year-on-year or a real increase of 5.9 percent after deducting price factors. By the end of the third quarter, the number of rural migrant workers was 179.69 million, which was 3.20 million more than the same period last year, or up by 1.8 percent. In the third quarter, the average monthly income of migrant workers was 3,459 yuan, an increase of 7.0 percent.

10. The Supply-Side Structural Reform Achieved Progress and New Steps Were Taken in Transformation and Upgrading.

The work of cutting overcapacity, reducing excess inventory, deleveraging, lowering costs and strengthening areas of weakness went on smoothly. Cutting overcapacity was advanced with a quickened pace. The industrial capacity utilization rate in the first three quarters reached 76.6 percent, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The effort of reducing excess inventory made notable achievements. Till the end of September, the floor space of commercial building for sale dropped by 12.2 percent year-on-year. Deleveraging and lowering costs continued to deliver results. The debt-to-asset ratio of industrial enterprises above the designated size at the end of August stood at 55.7 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than that in the same period last year. In the first eight months, the cost of per-hundred-yuan revenue from principle business of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 85.68 yuan, 0.12 yuan less on a year-on-year basis. Investment in areas of weakness enjoyed fast growth. In the first three quarters, the investment in the management of ecological protection and treatment of environment pollution, management of public facilities and agriculture grew by 25.0 percent, 23.7 percent and 16.2 percent respectively, 17.5 percentage points, 16.2 percentage points and 8.7 percentage points higher than that of overall investment respectively.

The service industry played an increasingly leading role. In the first three quarters, the value added of the tertiary industry occupied 52.9 percent of GDP, 12.8 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry. Consumption became the main driving force for economic growth. In the first three quarters, the final consumption expenditure’s contribution to the GDP growth was 64.5 percent, 2.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year. New driving forces grew rapidly. The value added of strategic emerging industrial enterprises increased by 11.3 percent year-on-year in the first three quarters, 4.6 percentage points higher than that of the industrial enterprises above the designated size. Green development advanced steadily. The energy consumption per unit of GDP dropped by 3.8 percent in the first three quarters on a year-on-year basis.

Generally speaking, the national economy has maintained the momentum of stable and sound development in the first three quarters, with favorable factors accumulating for the economy to maintain medium-high rate of growth and move towards medium-high level of development. The inclusiveness of development and the sense of benefit were strengthened notably. All these laid a solid foundation for achieving the annual target of economic development. However, we must be aware that international conditions remain complicated and volatile and the national economy is still at a crucial stage of restructuring with the foundation for sound development yet to be consolidated. In the next stage, under the guidance of the spirit of the 19th CPC National Congress, we will thoroughly implement the decisions and arrangements made by the Party Central Committee and the State Council, ensure the policies and reform measures are fully implemented, and make effort to maintain stable growth, promote reform, make structural adjustments, improve living standards, and guard against risks in a bid to facilitate sound and sustained economic development as well as social harmony and stability.

Notes:

1. The growth rate of gross domestic product, value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size and its sub-items are real growth by using comparable prices. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.

2. According to the auto-revision function of the seasonal adjustment model, GDP in each quarter and the month-on-month changes of the value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households), and total retail sales of consumer goods have been revised. The revised figures, quarter-on-quarter GDP data for the third quarter of 2017 and other indicators for September 2017 are as follows:

The quarter-on-quarter growth of GDP in 2016 and the first, second and third quarters of 2017 were 1.3 percent, 1.9 percent, 1.8 percent, 1.7 percent, 1.4 percent, 1.8 percent and 1.7 percent respectively.

3. Industrial enterprises above the designated size are industrial enterprises with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan.

4. To reflect timely the monthly performance of economic activities in services sector, the National Bureau of Statistics of China compiled the Index of Services Production, and disseminated the information since March 2017. The Index of Services Production reflects the output changes between reporting period and base period after excluding price factors.

5. Units above the designated size in total retail sales of consumer goods include wholesale enterprises, retail enterprises and lodging and catering enterprises with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan, 5 million yuan and 2 million yuan respectively.

Online retail sales refer to the retail sales of goods and services realized through internet trading platforms (including self-built websites and third-party platforms). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (e.g. virtual goods and services).

6. The median of national per capita disposable income of urban and rural households refers to the per capita disposable income of households which lies in the middle of all surveyed households ranked from low to high on the basis of per capita disposable income level.

7. Migrant workers refer to the rural labor force who obtained employment outside their registered towns and townships at the reference time of the survey.

8. Data of imports and exports are from the General Administration of Customs.

9. Due to the rounding-off reasons, the subentries may not add up to the aggregate totals.

In case of any differences between English translation and the original Chinese text, the Chinese edition shall prevail.