China's Non-manufacturing PMI Decreased in October

National Bureau of Statistics of China 2014-11-03 13:20 Print| Large| Medium| Small

Department of Service Statistics of NBS

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)

 

In October 2014, non-manufacturing purchasing manager index was 53.8 percent, decreased 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, and 3.8 percentage points higher than the threshold, indicating that China's non-manufacturing sector continued to maintain expansion.

 

 

In view of different industries, non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of service industry was 52.6 percent, up by 0.1 percentage point than that in the previous month. Of which, the indices of accommodation, Internet, software and information technology services, retail trade, transport via road, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services were above the threshold, and the total enterprise business increased; the indices of transport via railway, loading, unloading and portage, storage were below the threshold, and the total enterprise business decreased. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of construction industry achieved 58.5 percent, down by 1.7 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that the total enterprise business of construction industry continued to grow, with a narrowed growth rate.  

 

New orders index rose above the threshold. The new orders index was 51.0 percent, up by 1.5 percentage points over the previous month, and was above the threshold. In view of different industries, the new orders index of service industry was 49.6 percent, increased 0.2 percentage points over the previous month. Of which, the new orders indices of accommodation, retail trade, Internet, software and information technology services, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services were above the threshold, and the market demands increased; while the new orders indices of transport via railway, real estate were below the threshold, and the market demands decreased. The new orders index of construction industry was 56.4 percent, increased 6.4 percentage points over the previous month, and has recovered to grow following the weakening market demand in August and September.

 

Intermediate input price index was back above the threshold, which reached 52.0 percent, up by 2.2 percentage points over last month, fell below the threshold, indicating the intermediate input price during the process of production and operation of non-manufacturing enterprises went up. In view of different industries, the intermediate input price index of service industry was 51.8 percent, up by 1.7 percentage points over the previous month. Of which, the intermediate input price indices of accommodation, Internet, software and information technology services, restaurants were above the threshold, and the overall level of intermediate input price increased; while the intermediate input price indices of air transport, transport via railway, transport via road were below the threshold, and the overall level of intermediate input price decreased. The intermediate input price index of construction industry was 53.0 percent, an increase of 4.1 percentage points over the previous month, indicating the production and operation costs of construction industry increased.

 

The subscription price index continued to stay below the threshold. This index was 48.8 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher over last month, but was still below the threshold, showing that the overall level of non-manufacturing subscription price continued to decrease, while the pace of decline has narrowed. In view of different industries, the subscription price index of service industry was 48.4 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points over the previous month. Of which, the subscription price indices of accommodation, Internet, software and information technology services retail trade were higher than the threshold; while the subscription price indices of transport via railway, air transport, real estate, restaurants were lower than the threshold. The subscription price index of construction industry was 50.2 percent, up by 1.1 percentage points over last month, and was above the threshold, indicating that the subscription price of construction enterprises picked up slightly. 

 

Employment index fell back. This index was 48.9 percent, 0.6 percentage points lower over the previous month. In view of different industries, the employment index of service industry was 48.4 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points over the previous month. Of which, the employment index of air transport, Internet, software and information technology services were above the threshold; while that of transport via railway, restaurants were below the threshold. The employment index of construction industry was 50.5 percent, down by 0.9 percentage points over last month, still stayed above the threshold.

 

Business activities expectation index  continued to drop. This index was 59.9 percent, went down by 1.0 percentage point over last month, but was still close to the high level of the range, indicating that the non-manufacturing enterprises maintained optimistic about the operating expectation in next three months. In view of different industries, except that the business activities expectation indices of ecological protection, environmental control and management of public facilities, renting and leasing activities, accommodation, transport via railway were lower than the threshold, that of other industries all positioned in the expansion interval.

 

China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally adjusted)

Unit: %

 

Non-manufacturing PMI

New Orders Index

Intermediate Input Price Index

Subscription Price Index

Employment index

Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013-October

56.3

51.6

56.1

51.4

51.5

60.5

November

56.0

51.0

54.8

49.5

51.9

61.3

December

54.6

51.0

56.9

52.0

51.1

58.7

2014-January

53.4

50.9

54.5

50.1

49.7

58.1

February

55.0

51.4

52.1

49.0

50.9

59.9

March

54.5

50.8

52.8

49.5

51.4

61.5

April

54.8

50.8

52.4

49.4

50.2

61.5

May

55.5

52.7

54.5

49.0

50.9

60.7

June

55.0

50.7

56.0

50.8

50.4

60.4

July

54.2

50.7

53.4

49.5

49.3

61.5

August

54.4

50.0

52.2

48.3

49.6

61.2

September

54.0

49.5

49.8

47.3

49.5

60.9

October

53.8

51.0

52.0

48.8

48.9

59.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annotations:

 

1. Explanatory Notes

 

China non-manufacturing purchasing manager index system constituted by 10 sub-indices, they are business activity index, new orders index, new export orders index in hand orders index, stock index, intermediate input price index, subscription price index, employment index, supplier delivery time index, and business activities expectation index. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development, A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates expansion from the previous month, while below indicates contraction.

 

2. Statistical Coverage

 

The survey involves 27 non-manufacturing industry categories in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities" (GB/T4754-2011), and was conducted in 1200 sampling enterprises of the non-manufacturing sector countrywide.

 

3. Survey Methods

 

Non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey was conducted in PPS ( Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, using the non-manufacturing sectors as the selecting layers, distribution of sample size was according to their value-added accounted for the proportion of total non-manufacturing value-added, and samples within layers and the main business revenue of the enterprises were selected by the PPS.

 

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

 

4. Calculation Methods

 

Non-manufacturing purchasing managers survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. Diffusion index was calculated on each question, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers.

 

5. Seasonal Adjustment Note

 

The purchasing manager’s survey is a monthly survey, great fluctuations of data which affected by seasonal factors. At present, time series of China's non-manufacturing PMI have met the technical requirements of the seasonally adjustment, and the sub-indices of non-manufacturing PMI data on seasonally adjusted will be released since March 2012.