51. The organizer of this session was Mr. S. Favazza, Senior Officer, Department of International Relations, ISTAT, Italy; and the discussant was Mr. M. Ward, formerly of the Development Data Group of the World Bank.

 

52. Four papers were presented:

(i)“A Comparative Study on Economic Development among Different Types of Chinese Regions” (Shujie Yao);

(ii)“Rural Labor Migration, Characteristics and Employment Patterns: A Study Based on China’s Agricultural Census” (Francis Tuan);

(iii)“Infrastructure and Regional Economic Development: New Evidence from the Agricultural Census” (Shenggen Fan);

(iv)“Chinese Agricultural Production Factor Movement and Substitution Analysis” (Haifa Feng).

 

53. The papers in this session moved the discussion of the census forward by using selected modelling techniques to capture the dynamic components of the transformation process. Applying these models to the rich database of the census, the analysis attempted to extract more information on which to preview relevant conclusions and corresponding policy implications for PRC. Such attempts to identify core explanatory variables, nevertheless, were qualified by the availability of detailed data on a representative and comprehensive basis. It was also pointed out that the context in which such modeling was applied-“in a period of transition and growth unparalleled over the past few centuries”-advised caution in the interpretation of the features of change identified as being fully and equally determined in a situation where rapid transformation may be less marked.

 

54. What emerged from the analysis was the relevance of different sectoral characteristics, such as the share of agricultural activities in rural labour and the ratio of agricultural (or farm) to non-agricultural (industry and services) labour, and the role of various traditional tangible and non-tangible factor inputs such as machinery, labour, education, etc., in explaining differences in income levels between the East (Coastal and Urban Industrial) Region, the Central or Middle Region, and the predominantly rural and sparsely populated West Region. Each of the models attempted to attach appropriate weights to the relative importance of the identified characteristics and variables. A spatial model was used to explain observed diffusion and divergence in income levels across provinces where economic theory would more likely expect convergence. A specific model was used to analyze and predict future movements of rural workers from agricultural to non-agricultural activities. The model identified land size and education as related to gender as significant determinants of labour mobility.

 

55. Two simultaneously determined production functions relating income growth and productivity change to different exogenous input variables highlighted the importance of rural infrastructure (information obtained for the first time in the Census of Agriculture) as significant in accounting for income differences. However, the result was conditioned by large unexplained residuals implying other factors, including lack of comprehensive data, may be equally important.

 

56. Finally, factor substitution effects linked to structural change were explored to explain growth and development. Factor substitution between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors and substitution of capital (machinery) for labour were found to be significant.